Evidence for Miracles

Can evidence for miracles meet the especially good standard required to have justified beliefs about them? Historians make use of various strategies to justify their claims about past events. The miracles purported in The Book of Mormon provide a nice case study for examining whether historical study can provide us with enough evidence to be justified in believing that they actually occurred. But, in this case, the evidence doesn't meet historical standards of adequacy, and is thus well-short of what's required for justified belief.

Miracles

Because miracles have supernatural causes, a justified belief that a given event is a miracle requires that one be justified in believing that its cause is supernatural. But the only way to infer that a supernatural cause exists is through a kind of inference -- inference to the best explanation. Unfortunately, inference to the best explanation cannot justify belief in the supernatural. Thus, belief in miracles is unjustified.

Should We Care That Beliefs in Miracles Are Unjustified?

Perhaps one should continue to believe in miracles even granting that such a belief is unjustified. But, just as one seeks more justification for a serious medical diagnosis than for an insignificant one, so too one should desire justification for a belief in miracles if such a belief plays an important role in your life. Surprisingly, faith makes more sense for those who don't care about miracles in the first place.

Justifying Belief in Supernatural Causes

What are miracles? They are events that involve a violation of natural law due to the intervention of a supernatural, typically divine, being. Because we think that such interventions are extremely rare, miracles too should be among the least frequent of events. This makes justifying beliefs about miracles especially difficult.

Jesus’s Resurrection

The lessons of the previous chapter can be applied to the New Testament account of Jesus's resurrection. Should the testimony in the New Testament be taken to justify belief that Jesus was resurrected? It fails in this task because the sources on which the New Testament depend were unreliable, and the processes by which today's version of the New Testament was produced were also unreliable. Belief in Jesus's resurrection fails to meet the proper standard of justification.

Justified and Unjustified Belief

Some beliefs are justified, some not. Some beliefs are true, some not. Even justified beliefs might be false, and even true beliefs might not be justified. These ideas are important for understanding why beliefs in miracles, even if true, may not be justified.

Justifying Belief in Improbable Events

Miracles are supposed to be extraordinarily rare. But a mathematical result shows that the rarer a phenomenon, the more reliable any testimony regarding its occurrence must be in order for us to be justified in believing it. This means that testimony on behalf of miracles must be especially good if it is to be accepted as true.