Conditioning and Associative Learning

Associative learning is the process whereby humans and other animals learn the predictive relationship between cues in their environment. This process underlies simple forms of learning from rewards, such as classical and operant conditioning. In this chapter, we introduce the basics of associative learning and discuss the role that memory processes play in the establishment and maintenance of this learning. We then discuss the role that associative learning plays in human memory, including through paired associate learning, the enhancement of memory by reward, and the formation of episodic memories. Finally, we illustrate how the memory process influences choice in decision-making, where associative learning allows people to learn the values of different options. We conclude with some suggestions about how models of associative learning, memory, and choice can be integrated into a single theoretical framework.

A Hybrid Framework for Direct CO2 Emissions Quantification in China’s Construction Sector

Carbon emission quantifications in China are not consistent, with many standards and methods having been used over the years. This study identified the non-consideration of China-specific technology and databases as a factor limiting comprehensive quantification. The study aimed to comprehensively quantify regional direct CO2 emission in the industry using a hybrid of economic and environmental data. We retrieved nineteen (19) sets of fossil fuel and electricity data from provincial energy yearbooks between 1997 and 2015 for the study. To generate regression models for each of the six regional construction industries in China, the study further integrated the results with three sets of econometric data: total annual construction output, cement, and steel product yearly consumption data. The study identified the North China region as the main source of direct CO2 emission with over 30%, while Southeast China contributed the least. While there is a gradual shift to other energy sources, the study identified coal and crude oil to remain as the main energy sources in the industry. Cement and steel data exhibited a significant predictive relationship with CO2 emissions in five regional construction industries. The study identified the need to have policies tailored to technological improvements to enhance renewable energy generation and usage in the industry. The models developed in this study could be used to generate initial quantifications of carbon emissions in construction industries with similar carbon-emitting characteristics for carbon tracking, and energy policies for decision making. However, the three economic indicators used in the study could be extended to generate more robust models in future research.

An evaluation of the predictive value of bank fair values

<p>This thesis examines whether the net asset fair values of banks possess predictive ability for the banks’ future cash flows and earnings. This is an important issue considering the arguments for and against the wider use of fair value accounting for banks’ financial instruments and the claim by some that fair values during economic recessions (where markets may be illiquid) are irrelevant and largely unreliable. A number of studies have found that the explanatory power of bank fair values when compared to traditional historical cost are more value-relevant based on capital market reactions. However, there is a very limited literature on how bank fair values are related to the future performance (e.g. earnings and cash flow) of banks. This study fills this gap by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between U.S. bank fair value disclosures and banks’ future performance as measured by operating cash flows and earnings over a three-period future horizon. Furthermore, the thesis provides evidence on the relationship between bank fair values, in terms of the levels classification introduced during the 2008 global financial crisis, and the future performance of banks, thus showing whether market illiquidity affected the underlying relationships. The study examines two distinct periods. The first study period, 1996-2005, was based on annual data of banks with minimum total assets of $US150 million as of year 1996. The second study period from 2008-2010 (this period encompassed the global financial crisis period and also the levels classification of bank fair values according to SFAS 157), was based on quarterly data of banks with minimum total assets of $US150 million as of the first quarter of 2008. The thesis provides strong evidence that there is a predictive relationship between bank fair values and future bank performance. The evidence is strong during the first study period from 1996 to 2005 where the current net asset fair values of on-balance sheet financial instruments of banks were significantly associated with future operating cash flows and operating earnings of such banks over a three-year future time horizon. However, the predictive relationship between net asset bank fair values and operating cash flows is stronger than the predictive relationship between net asset bank fair values and operating earnings. In the second study period, from 2008 until 2010 the empirical results show strong evidence that there is a predictive relationship between level 1 and level 2 bank fair values and future operating cash flows. The findings from the empirical results were that the current quarter’s level 1 and level 2 net asset fair values of banks were significantly associated with the future quarters’ operating cash flows of such banks. The level 3 net asset fair values of such banks in most cases were not significantly associated with the banks’ future quarterly operating cash flows. The corresponding relationships for operating earnings were that the current quarter’s level 1 net asset fair values of banks were positively associated with the future quarters’ operating earnings of such banks. However, the level 2 net asset fair values of banks were negatively associated with the future quarters’ earnings of such banks. This result is in contrast to the results obtained when the predictive relationship between level 2 bank fair values and future operating cash flows was evaluated, where it is found that both level 1 and level 2 net asset bank fair values are positively related to future quarterly bank cash flows. Further empirical analysis showed that a possible reason behind this disparity was that there was a structural change in the relationship between bank operating cash flows and operating earnings over the course of the first and second study periods, where, in particular, for the second study period (which includes the period of the global financial crisis) there was a systematic downward bias in operating earnings relative to the operating cash flows of the sampled banks. This in turn makes operating earnings a poor proxy for operating cash flows during the second study period. The findings from this study provide confirmation that net asset fair values have predictive ability as argued by Ball (2008); Barth (2006b) and Tweedie (2008). The study findings that net asset fair values have predictive ability is consistent with the FASB’s view that the asset values shown in firm financial statements should communicate information about the potential future financial performance of the affected firms (FASB 2010:17). Furthermore, the study also confirms that objectively determined bank fair values based on market prices rather than model based bank fair values provide greater predictive value in relation to future performance as measured by operating cash flows. Lastly, this thesis showed that during the first study period (where there was no financial crisis) that bank size, capital adequacy and growth prospects, had little impact on the results obtained, while for the second study period, there were cases where bank size and bank capital ratios did have a significant impact on the predictive relationship between bank fair values and future cash flows. The study contributes to the fair value accounting and accounting standard-setting literature and highlights that fair values have predictive ability, especially with respect to future operating cash flows of banks, both during and outside of periods of financial crisis.</p>

An evaluation of the predictive value of bank fair values

<p>This thesis examines whether the net asset fair values of banks possess predictive ability for the banks’ future cash flows and earnings. This is an important issue considering the arguments for and against the wider use of fair value accounting for banks’ financial instruments and the claim by some that fair values during economic recessions (where markets may be illiquid) are irrelevant and largely unreliable. A number of studies have found that the explanatory power of bank fair values when compared to traditional historical cost are more value-relevant based on capital market reactions. However, there is a very limited literature on how bank fair values are related to the future performance (e.g. earnings and cash flow) of banks. This study fills this gap by providing empirical evidence on the relationship between U.S. bank fair value disclosures and banks’ future performance as measured by operating cash flows and earnings over a three-period future horizon. Furthermore, the thesis provides evidence on the relationship between bank fair values, in terms of the levels classification introduced during the 2008 global financial crisis, and the future performance of banks, thus showing whether market illiquidity affected the underlying relationships. The study examines two distinct periods. The first study period, 1996-2005, was based on annual data of banks with minimum total assets of $US150 million as of year 1996. The second study period from 2008-2010 (this period encompassed the global financial crisis period and also the levels classification of bank fair values according to SFAS 157), was based on quarterly data of banks with minimum total assets of $US150 million as of the first quarter of 2008. The thesis provides strong evidence that there is a predictive relationship between bank fair values and future bank performance. The evidence is strong during the first study period from 1996 to 2005 where the current net asset fair values of on-balance sheet financial instruments of banks were significantly associated with future operating cash flows and operating earnings of such banks over a three-year future time horizon. However, the predictive relationship between net asset bank fair values and operating cash flows is stronger than the predictive relationship between net asset bank fair values and operating earnings. In the second study period, from 2008 until 2010 the empirical results show strong evidence that there is a predictive relationship between level 1 and level 2 bank fair values and future operating cash flows. The findings from the empirical results were that the current quarter’s level 1 and level 2 net asset fair values of banks were significantly associated with the future quarters’ operating cash flows of such banks. The level 3 net asset fair values of such banks in most cases were not significantly associated with the banks’ future quarterly operating cash flows. The corresponding relationships for operating earnings were that the current quarter’s level 1 net asset fair values of banks were positively associated with the future quarters’ operating earnings of such banks. However, the level 2 net asset fair values of banks were negatively associated with the future quarters’ earnings of such banks. This result is in contrast to the results obtained when the predictive relationship between level 2 bank fair values and future operating cash flows was evaluated, where it is found that both level 1 and level 2 net asset bank fair values are positively related to future quarterly bank cash flows. Further empirical analysis showed that a possible reason behind this disparity was that there was a structural change in the relationship between bank operating cash flows and operating earnings over the course of the first and second study periods, where, in particular, for the second study period (which includes the period of the global financial crisis) there was a systematic downward bias in operating earnings relative to the operating cash flows of the sampled banks. This in turn makes operating earnings a poor proxy for operating cash flows during the second study period. The findings from this study provide confirmation that net asset fair values have predictive ability as argued by Ball (2008); Barth (2006b) and Tweedie (2008). The study findings that net asset fair values have predictive ability is consistent with the FASB’s view that the asset values shown in firm financial statements should communicate information about the potential future financial performance of the affected firms (FASB 2010:17). Furthermore, the study also confirms that objectively determined bank fair values based on market prices rather than model based bank fair values provide greater predictive value in relation to future performance as measured by operating cash flows. Lastly, this thesis showed that during the first study period (where there was no financial crisis) that bank size, capital adequacy and growth prospects, had little impact on the results obtained, while for the second study period, there were cases where bank size and bank capital ratios did have a significant impact on the predictive relationship between bank fair values and future cash flows. The study contributes to the fair value accounting and accounting standard-setting literature and highlights that fair values have predictive ability, especially with respect to future operating cash flows of banks, both during and outside of periods of financial crisis.</p>

Whose Inflation Expectations Best Predict Inflation?

We examine the predictive relationship between various measures of inflation expectations and future inflation. We find that the expectations of professional economists and of businesses have tended to provide more accurate predictions of future inflation than the expectations of households and of financial market participants. However, the forecasts coming from a relatively simple and popular benchmark inflation forecasting model have historically been roughly as accurate as the expectations of businesses and professional economists.

Relationships between Cultural Adaptation and Immigrants’ Well-Being

The present study aimed to evaluate the predictive relationship of socio-demographic variables, cultural adaptation and hope on general well-being (GWB), subjective (SWB), social (SoWB) and psychological (PWB) and in the meaning of life. The participants consisted of 108 immigrants. The instruments used were: bio sociodemographic questionnaire, Mental Health Continuum - Short Form, Dispositional Hope Scale, Acculturation Measures and Meaning of Life Questionnaire. In general, only sociocultural adaptation showed a positive predictive relationship with all types of well-being studied, nonetheless this measure presented a negative predictive relationship regarding the presence of meaning in life. Psychological adaptation was predictively and positively related only to SWB. The perception of cultural distance negatively affected SoWB. The presence of meaning was also negatively predicted by the type of immigration and age. The search for meaning was negatively predicted only by income. The results are important for a better understanding of factors that influence the experience of immigrants in Brazil.

Indirect responses in natural conversation

By indirect answers we mean answers to general questions which do not correspond to “yes” and “no”, and answers to special questions which do not literally correlate with the question words who, what, where, etc. The article examines the types of indirect responses in different structural and semantic types of dialogue. The article analyzes the features of indirect answers determined by the predictive relationship of concepts: place-goal, place-time, etc. Particular attention is paid to answers containing assessment, not determineded by the content of questions, as well as question-answer turns with why and what for. The article focuses on the informative volume of indirect answers, their insufficiency and redundancy. Indirect questions are used rather frequently. It is not possible to classify all of them, but all of them are undoubtedly associated with certain types of dialogue, speech genres, speech situations and with the psychological type of communication partners. As noted earlier, the logical connection of the categories place-goal, placetime, goal-cause, etc. leads to reversibility and predictability of situations, and in certain speech genres to the interchangeability of designating categories in the form of indirect answers. A specific feature of the dialogue, observed in different speech genres, is the response containing the characteristic of the person mentioned in the question, instead of the information in which the speaker is interested. The analysis of these responses reveals the organic connection between the evaluation and the reason. The use of counter-questions, and first of all, why- and what for-remarks, is caused by the specific nature of this phenomenon, which, despite the thorough research of N. D. Arutyunova, allows to see some interesting features in it. The article uses recordings of oral speech and some works of fiction, reproducing spoken dialogue.