Analysis of death causes of residents in poverty-stricken Areas in 2020: take Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture in China as an example

Background Continuous surveillance of death can measure health status of the population, reflect social development of a region, thus promote health service development in the region and improve the health level of local residents. Liangshan Yi Autonomous Prefecture was a poverty-stricken region in Sichuan province, China. While at the end of 2020, as the announcement of its last seven former severely impoverished counties had shaken off poverty, Liangshan declared victory against poverty. Since it is well known that the mortality and cause of death structure will undergo some undesirable changes as the economy develops, this study aimed to reveal the distribution of deaths, as well as analyze the latest mortality and death causes distribution characteristics in Liangshan in 2020, so as to provide references for the decision-making on health policies and the distribution of health resources in global poverty-stricken areas. Methods Liangshan carried out the investigation on underreporting deaths among population in its 11 counties in 2018, and combined with the partially available data from underreporting deaths investigation data in 2020 and the field experience, we have estimated the underreporting rates of death in 2020 using capture-recapture (CRC) method. The crude mortality rate, age-standardized mortality rate, proportion and rank of the death causes, potential years of life lost (PYLL), average years of life lost (AYLL), potential years of life lost rate (PYLLR), standardized potential years of life lost (SPYLL), premature mortality from non-communicable diseases (premature NCD mortality), life expectancy and cause-eliminated life expectancy were estimated and corrected. Results In 2020, Liangshan reported a total of 16,850 deaths, with a crude mortality rate of 608.75/100,000 and an age-standardized mortality rate of 633.50/100,000. Male mortality was higher than female mortality, while 0-year-old mortality of men was lower than women’s. The former severely impoverished counties’ age-standardized mortality and 0-year-old mortality were higher than those of the non-impoverished counties. The main cause of death spectrum was noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), and the premature NCD mortality of four major NCDs were 14.26% for the overall population, 19.16% for men and 9.27% for women. In the overall population, the top five death causes were heart diseases (112.07/100,000), respiratory diseases (105.85/100,000), cerebrovascular diseases (87.03/100,000), malignant tumors (73.92/100,000) and injury (43.89/100,000). Injury (64,216.78 person years), malignant tumors (41,478.33 person years) and heart diseases (29,647.83 person years) had the greatest burden on residents in Liangshan, and at the same time, the burden of most death causes on men were greater than those on women. The life expectancy was 76.25 years for overall population, 72.92 years for men and 80.17 years for women, respectively, all higher than the global level (73.3, 70.8 and 75.9 years). Conclusions Taking Liangshan in China as an example, this study analyzed the latest death situation in poverty-stricken areas, and proposed suggestions on the formulation of health policies in other poverty-stricken areas both at home and abroad.

Choosing the right COVID-19 indicator: crude mortality, case fatality, and infection fatality rates influence policy preferences, behaviour, and understanding

Individuals worldwide are overwhelmed with news about COVID-19. In times of pandemic, media alternate the usage of different COVID-19 indicators, ranging from the more typical crude mortality rate to the case fatality rate, and the infection fatality rate continuously. In this article, we used experimental methods to test whether and how the treatment of individuals with different types of information on COVID-19 is able to change policy preferences, individual and social behaviours, and the understanding of COVID-19 indicators. Results show that while the usage of the crude mortality rate proves to be more efficient in terms of supporting policy preferences and behaviours to contain the virus, all indicators suffer from a significant misunderstanding on behalf of the population.

Clues To Mortality Trends And Their Related Factors In IgG4-Related Disease: A Japanese Single-Center Retrospective Study

Background: Few observations on the long-term prognosis have been conducted in immunoglobulin G4-related disease (IgG4-RD) patients with various organ involvement, not limited to autoimmune pancreatitis. Especially, mortality and its related factors in patients with IgG4-RD with various organ involvement are not well known. This study aimed to clarify mortality trends and its related factors in IgG4-RD with various organ involvement.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with IgG4-RD at a single center in Japan. We calculated the crude mortality rate and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) using national Japan mortality statistics and investigated the cause of death. We performed Cox regression analyses to assess mortality-related factors.Results: A total of 179 patients with IgG4-RD were included and the median follow-up from diagnosis was 47 months (IQR 19-96). Ten patients (5.6%) in our cohort died during the follow-up period. The crude mortality rate was 11.1 per 1,000 person-years. According to national Japan mortality statistics, 11.6 age- and sex-matched deaths would have been expected to occur within the follow-up period, resulting in an SMR of 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41-1.59). Univariate Cox regression analyses indicated that the number of affected organs at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.45, 95% CI 1.02-2.05), eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73m2 at diagnosis (vs. ≥45, HR 8.48, 95% CI 2.42-29.79), and the presence of malignancy during the clinical course (HR 3.93, 95% CI 1.10-14.02) had a significant impact on the time to death.Conclusions: Our findings suggested that IgG4-RD does not significantly affect long-term patient survival. On the other hand, multi-organ involvement and renal dysfunction as well as malignancy might be associated with higher mortality trends in IgG4-RD. Early detection and appropriate management of risk factors may improve the long-term prognosis of IgG4-RD.

Clues to Mortality Trends and Their Related Factors in IgG4-related Disease: a Japanese Single-center Retrospective Study

Background: Few observations on the long-term prognosis have been conducted in immunoglobulin G4-related disease (IgG4-RD) patients with various organ involvement, not limited to autoimmune pancreatitis. Especially, mortality and its related factors in patients with IgG4-RD with various organ involvement are not well known. This study aimed to clarify mortality trends and its related factors in IgG4-RD with various organ involvement.Methods: We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of patients with IgG4-RD at a single center in Japan. We calculated the crude mortality rate and the standardized mortality ratio (SMR) using national Japan mortality statistics and investigated the cause of death. We performed Cox regression analyses to assess mortality-related factors.Results: A total of 179 patients with IgG4-RD were included and the median follow-up from diagnosis was 47 months (IQR 19-96). Ten patients (5.6%) in our cohort died during the follow-up period. The crude mortality rate was 11.1 per 1,000 person-years. According to national Japan mortality statistics, 11.6 age- and sex-matched deaths would have been expected to occur within the follow-up period, resulting in an SMR of 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.41-1.59). Univariate Cox regression analyses indicated that the number of affected organs at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR] 1.45, 95% CI 1.02-2.05), eGFR <45 mL/min/1.73m2 at diagnosis (vs. ≥45, HR 8.48, 95% CI 2.42-29.79), and the presence of malignancy during the clinical course (HR 3.93, 95% CI 1.10-14.02) had a significant impact on the time to death.Conclusions: Our findings suggested that IgG4-RD does not significantly affect long-term patient survival. On the other hand, multi-organ involvement and renal dysfunction as well as malignancy might be associated with higher mortality trends in IgG4-RD. Early detection and appropriate management of risk factors may improve the long-term prognosis of IgG4-RD.

The association between first and second wave COVID-19 mortality in Italy

Background The relation between the magnitude of successive waves of the COVID-19 outbreak within the same communities could be useful in predicting the scope of new outbreaks. Methods We investigated the extent to which COVID-19 mortality in Italy during the second wave was related to first wave mortality within the same provinces. We compared data on province-specific COVID-19 2020 mortality in two time periods, corresponding to the first wave (February 24–June 30, 2020) and to the second wave (September 1–December 31, 2020), using cubic spline regression. Results For provinces with the lowest crude mortality rate in the first wave (February–June), i.e. < 22 cases/100,000/month, mortality in the second wave (September–December) was positively associated with mortality during the first wave. In provinces with mortality greater than 22/100,000/month during the first wave, higher mortality in the first wave was associated with a lower second wave mortality. Results were similar when the analysis was censored at October 2020, before the implementation of region-specific measures against the outbreak. Neither vaccination nor variant spread had any role during the study period. Conclusions These findings indicate that provinces with the most severe initial COVID-19 outbreaks, as assessed through mortality data, faced milder second waves.

Using Satellite Images and Deep Learning to Identify Associations Between County-Level Mortality and Residential Neighborhood Features Proximal to Schools: A Cross-Sectional Study

What is the relationship between mortality and satellite images as elucidated through the use of Convolutional Neural Networks?Background: Following a century of increase, life expectancy in the United States has stagnated and begun to decline in recent decades. Using satellite images and street view images, prior work has demonstrated associations of the built environment with income, education, access to care, and health factors such as obesity. However, assessment of learned image feature relationships with variation in crude mortality rate across the United States has been lacking.Objective: We sought to investigate if county-level mortality rates in the U.S. could be predicted from satellite images.Methods: Satellite images of neighborhoods surrounding schools were extracted with the Google Static Maps application programming interface for 430 counties representing ~68.9% of the US population. A convolutional neural network was trained using crude mortality rates for each county in 2015 to predict mortality. Learned image features were interpreted using Shapley Additive Feature Explanations, clustered, and compared to mortality and its associated covariate predictors.Results: Predicted mortality from satellite images in a held-out test set of counties was strongly correlated to the true crude mortality rate (Pearson r = 0.72). Direct prediction of mortality using a deep learning model across a cross-section of 430 U.S. counties identified key features in the environment (e.g., sidewalks, driveways, and hiking trails) associated with lower mortality. Learned image features were clustered, and we identified 10 clusters that were associated with education, income, geographical region, race, and age.Conclusions: The application of deep learning techniques to remotely-sensed features of the built environment can serve as a useful predictor of mortality in the United States. Although we identified features that were largely associated with demographic information, future modeling approaches that directly identify image features associated with health-related outcomes have the potential to inform targeted public health interventions.

Survival and Transformation of Marginal Zone Lymphoma: A Finnish Nationwide Population-Based Study

Background Marginal zone lymphoma (MZL) is an indolent B-cell lymphoma with classical histopathological lesions and heterogeneous anatomical and clinical features. It is divided into three subtypes depending on the site of lymphoma involvement with extranodal MZL of mucosa-associated lymphoid tissue (MALT, ∼70%) being the most common, followed by splenic (SMZL, ∼20%) and nodal subtypes (NMZL, &lt;10%). Although these subtypes differ with regard to biology and clinical presentation, MZLs are generally associated with long survival. However, a proportion of MZLs undergo transformation to large B-cell lymphoma characterized by aggressive clinical behavior and increased mortality. Population-based long-term data on transformation of MZL is lacking. Aims We estimated overall survival and the risk of transformation to large B-cell lymphoma in patients diagnosed with MZL in Finland in 1995−2018. We also compared mortality rates between the patients with or without transformation. Methods Patients diagnosed with incident MZL (ICD-O-3 morphology codes 9689/3 and 9699/3) and lymphoma not otherwise specified (NOS) (9590/3, 9591/3) in Finland between 1995 and 2018 were retrieved from the Finnish Cancer Registry (FCR). The Registry has an excellent coverage and provides accurate population-based nationwide data for all histologically verified cancers in Finland. The diagnosis of MZL and possible transformation were confirmed from the pathology reports. Transformation was defined as the diagnosis of morphologically verified large B-cell lymphoma at least 3 months after the primary diagnosis of MZL. For all patients with histologically verified MZL, we collected data on subtype, gender, date of birth, MZL diagnosis and last follow-up (f-up), vital status at the end of f-up, and date of transformation. F-up for overall survival (OS) was completed on December 31, 2018. The patients with missing information regarding MZL subtype or incorrect diagnostic were excluded. No patients were lost to f-up before the end of the study period, and none of the MZL diagnoses nor transformations were recorded by death certificate or autopsy only. The start of the f-up was defined as the date of MZL diagnosis. OS and the cumulative risk of transformation were estimated by the Kaplan-Meier method. Analysis of total mortality was performed using Cox regression. Risk factors included age at diagnosis, year of diagnosis, gender, and MZL subtype. Transformation was treated as a time-varying covariate. All statistical analyses were performed using R, version 4.0.4. Results We identified 1341 patients diagnosed with MZL after above mentioned exclusions. Baseline characteristics, as well as subtype-specific rates of transformation and death, are shown in the Table 1. Median age at diagnosis was 68 years (IQR, 58−76; range, 13−95 years), with a slight female predominance (59%). MALT subtype was the most frequent, followed by SMZL and NMZL. There were no clinically significant differences in age at diagnosis between males and females nor in the MZL subtypes. Median follow-up time was 5.5 years (IQR, 2.1−10.5; range 0−24 years). The majority of the NMLZ patients were diagnosed during more recent years. Transformation occurred in 47 patients during 9315 person-years of follow-up (crude transformation rate, 5.0 per 1000). The cumulative risk of transformation was 2.8% (95% CI, 1.7-3.8) at 5 years and 5.6% (95% CI, 3.8-7.3) at 10 years from diagnosis (Fig. 1), with no apparent plateau. Overall, 519 (39%) patients died during a total f-up of 9435 person-years (crude mortality rate, 55.0 per 1000). In comparison, the crude mortality rate following transformation was 233.4 per 1000. OS was 66.2% (95% CI, 73.8−78.7) at 5 years and 58.9% (95% CI, 55.8−62.2) at 10 years from diagnosis (Fig. 2). After adjusting for potential confounders (age at diagnosis, gender, year of diagnosis, and MZL subtype), transformation was associated with a substantial increase in mortality (HR, 5.13; 95% CI, 3.47−7.59; p &lt; 0.001) (Table 2). Conclusions In this large nationwide population-based study, the risk of transformation to large B-cell lymphoma was 5.6% at 10 years, and transformation was associated with a substantially increased risk of death. Long-term OS and baseline characteristics were in accordance with previously published data for MZL. Figure 1 Figure 1. Disclosures No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

Temporal Trends in the Incidence and Mortality of Skin Malignant Melanoma in China from 1990 to 2019

Purpose. Skin malignant melanoma (SMM) is one of the fastest-growing cancers in China, with a poor prognosis, high invasiveness, and high mortality rate. The aim of this study was to determine the long-term trends in the incidence and mortality of SMM in China between 1990 and 2019. Patients and Methods. Incidence and mortality data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 and were analyzed using an age-period-cohort framework. Results. The annual incidence net drifts were 3.523% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.318% to 3.728%) and 3.779% (95% CI: 3.585% to 3.974%) for males and females, respectively, while the corresponding annual net drifts of mortality were −0.754% (95% CI: −1.073% to −0.435%) and –0.826% (95% CI: −1.164% to −0.487%). The local drift from 1990 to 2019 was highest in males aged from 25 to 29 years. After controlling for period deviations in a single birth cohort, the SMM incidence and mortality increased exponentially with age for both sexes. Similar increasing monotonic trends were found for period and cohort effects on the incidence, while a declining trend was found for mortality. Conclusion. While the age-standardized mortality rate of SMM in China has decreased in both sexes over the past 30 years, the crude incidence rate, age-standardized incidence rate, and crude mortality rate have all increased. SMM may greatly threaten the health of the elderly in China due to the aging population. Appropriate changes should be made to raise the awareness, reduce the exposure to risk factors, and promote the early detection of SMM.

Mortality in psoriasis and psoriatic arthritis: systematic review and meta-analysis

We had found contradictory results that have been reported in recent publications regarding the mortality risk of patients with psoriasis (Pso) and psoriatic arthritis (PsA). These patients have aggregated risk behaviors, which directly impacted their morbidity/mortality. We included 15 studies, with a total population of that reported mortality risk in Pso and PsA patients. We calculated crude mortality rate (CMR) of each one and pooled CMR by group and 95% confidence intervals (CI). The pooled CMR for Pso was 14/1000 (95% CI: 6-21%), 12/1000 (95% CI: 10-15%) in mild, 19/1000 (95% CI: 15-23%) in severe and 12/1000 was observed (95% CI: 10-14%) in PsA. Mortality was relatively higher in PsA patients when compared with Pso, with a RR of 1.03 (95% CI: 1.01-1.06, p<0.01). Pso was associated with increased mortality when compared to the general population. Mild Pso and PsA have the same increased mortality, then again as the severity of Pso increased, so does its mortality. The final comparative mortality between patients with PsA and those with Pso was around 3%.

COVID-19 incidence and mortality in non-dialysis chronic kidney disease patients

Many studies reported a higher risk of COVID-19 disease among patients on dialysis or with kidney transplantation, and the poor outcome of COVID-19 in these patients. Patients in conservative management for chronic kidney disease (CKD) have received attention only recently, therefore less is known about how COVID-19 affects this population. The aim of this study was to provide evidence on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in CKD patients followed up in an integrated healthcare program and in the population living in the same catchment area. The study population included CKD patients recruited in the Emilia-Romagna Prevention of Progressive Renal Insufficiency (PIRP) project, followed up in the 4 nephrology units (Ravenna, Forlì, Cesena and Rimini) of the Romagna Local Health Authority (Italy) and alive at 1.01.2020. We estimated the incidence of COVID-19, its related mortality and the excess mortality within this PIRP cohort as of 31.07.2020. COVID-19 incidence in CKD patients was 4.09% (193/4,716 patients), while in the general population it was 0.46% (5,195/1,125,574). The crude mortality rate among CKD patients with COVID-19 was 44.6% (86/193), compared to 4.7% (215/4,523) in CKD patients without COVID-19. The excess mortality of March-April 2020 was +69.8% than the average mortality of March-April 2015–19 in the PIRP cohort. In a cohort mostly including regularly followed up CKD patients, the incidence of COVID-19 among CKD patients was strongly related to the spread of the infection in the community, while its lethality is associated with the underlying kidney condition and comorbidities. COVID-19 related mortality was about ten times higher than that of CKD patients without COVID. For this reason, it is urgent to offer a direct protection to CKD patients by prioritizing their vaccination.