SPATIAL DEMOGRAPHIC DATA FOR PLANNING AND RESEARCH

In Malaysia, spatial demographic studies are lacking due to data paucity. This exploratory study illustrates the relevance of spatial demographic data for development and business planning at the local level. Data for this study came from Malaysian population censuses, vital statistics reports and social statistics bulletins. Bivariate analyses were performed to present some examples of the potential use of spatial demographic data for more target-oriented planning. Data show that the population in several densely populated districts continues to grow rapidly. Hence, development planning should aim to forestall the exacer-bation of the regional imbalance. Localities with high birth rate and rapid population ageing must be prepared to cope with the changing demographic scenario. The wide variations in pupil-teacher ratio across districts indicate the need for resource reallocation. The under-reporting of births and deaths in the remote areas may result in misallocation of health and educational resources. Comparisons of indictors from different data sources demonstrate data inconsistency and deficiency. This study aims to present a strong case for collecting and disseminating small area statistics to enhance spatial demographic research for socio-economic development, infrastructural, regional and business planning.

Estimating the Disposable Income of Households at the Local Level

The article is devoted to the problem of socio-economic indicators estimation of at the local level, first and foremost at the municipal and community level. Emphasis is made on approaches to the estimation of the households’ disposable income as a key indicator of the population’s standards of living, required for elaborating and implementing effective measures of socio-economic policy, implementing investment programs on the modernization of living quarters, objects of social infrastructure etc. The meaning of the term “disposable incomes” adopted in the official statistics of Ukraine, drawbacks of this definition and ways for its extension are illustrated. A broad description of studies focused on the assessment of population’s incomes at local level in various countries of the world is given. It is shown that the need for such problem solutions in the statistics caused the emergence of a separate theoretical field – small area statistics. A series of international and national projects aimed at the adaptation of elaborated theoretical and methodological approaches have been accomplished, in particular SAMPLE in EU countries and SAIPE in the U.S. Basically, results of the performed studies demonstrate a feasibility of the assessment of households’ incomes at local level with the acceptable degree of reliability. A review of the main data sources that can be used for estimation of households’ incomes at local level in Ukraine is made. It is stressed that data from administrative registers on salaries, pensions, stipends, social allowances, subsidies for utility services, taxes etc. have critical importance for the income assessment. Special sample surveys of households’ incomes and expenditures, performed at local or regional and national level, are highly significant for determining the patterns of correlations between incomes and principal characteristics of households, such as composition, region and locality of residence, type of dwelling, availability of movable and immovable property, land plots etc. It is substantiated that methods for quantitative estimation of disposable incomes should be given preference over expert assessment that tends to be used in the current conditions. Examples of the assessment of disposable incomes based on quite simple and comprehensible ratios are given. Areas of further studies focused on the estimation of population incomes at the local level are outlined.

PEMODELAN EMPIRICAL BEST LINEAR UNBIASED PREDICTION (EBLUP) DALAM PENDUGAAN AREA KECIL

Kebutuhan terhadap data pada level mikro semakin tinggi. Di sisi lain, Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS) membutuhkan biaya yang cukup besar untuk pengumpulan data seiring dengan banyaknya kegiatan survei rutin yang dilakukan berulang kali. Hal ini menunjukkan BPS memerlukan metode estimasi yang akan menghasilkan statistik yang efektif dan efisien, di samping hemat dan menghasilkan statistik dengan ketelitian yang memadai. Penelitian ini akan menerapkan metode Small Area Statistics (SAE) atau estimasi wilayah kecil untuk keperluan estimasi rata-rata pengeluran per kapita menurut kelurahan/desa di kabupaten Sukamara. Metode estimasi level kelurahan/desa menggunakan model Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). Tahapan pertama yakni melakukan pendugaan langsung (direct estimation) nilai rata-rata pengeluaran per kapita pada desa yang terpilih menjadi sampel. Selanjutnya, dilakukan estimasi tidak langsung (indirect estimation) untuk mengestimasi pengeluaran per kapita seluruh desa di kabupaten Sukamara. Metode tidak langsung didasarkan pada pemodelan regresi linier dengan menggunakan variabel tambahan (auxiliary variabel) yang memiliki hubungan yang kuat dan linier terhadap variabel prediktor. Variabel tambahan yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah jumlah keluarga non listrik, jumlah sarana pendidikan, jumlah sarana kesehatan, jumlah kasus gizi buruk, jumlah keluarga dengan Surat Keterangan Tidak Mampu (SKTM), dan jumlah keluarga yang memiliki jamkesmas/askes. Dari hasil pemodelan, secara umum pengeluaran per kapita per bulan dari setiap desa berada di atas satu juta rupiah. Penduduk desa-desa yang terletak di kecamatan Balai Riam dan Permata Kecubung terlihat banyak mengeluarkan sejumlah dana, untuk keperluan makanan maupun non-makanan. Hal ini diindikasikan karena desa-desa tersebut yang memiliki infrastruktur yang memadai ke Kota Pangkalan Bun.

Area Deprivation, Urbanicity and Severe Mental Illness – A Population-Based Linkage Study Using Routinely Collected Primary and Secondary Care Data

Background There is a long-standing debate regarding the associations between area deprivation, urbanicity and elevated risk of severe mental illnesses (SMIs). Main Aim We investigated the associations between area deprivation, urbanicity and risk of SMIs in a population cohorts in Wales. Methods/Approach We extracted primary and secondary care electronic health records from 2004 to 2015 from Wales’s population. We identified prevalent and incident individuals with SMIs (schizophrenia related disorders and bipolar disorder) and their level of deprivation and urbanicity. We used the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) and urban/rural indicator to measure the level of area deprivation and urbanicity respectively for all lower layer super output areas, the geographic units used in the reporting of small area statistics comprised of approximately 1,500 individuals. Results Prevalence and incidence of SMIs is not evenly distributed in Wales. Increased prevalence and incidence of SMIs occur in more deprived and urban areas. Such associations occur for both schizophrenia related disorders and bipolar disorder and in both the primary and secondary care cohorts. Conclusion These findings have implications for resource allocation, service configuration and access to services in deprived communities, as well as, for broader public health interventions addressing poverty, and social and environmental contexts.

Changes in the distribution and structure of white-collar workers’ residences in Japan during the period of modernization

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> In Japan, research on urban residential differentiation has been carried out since the 1970s. Most of this research has focused on large cities using social area analysis and factorial ecology. The poor availability of small area statistics hindered research on urban residential differentiation until the end of the 1960s. Therefore, previous studies that focused on the modern cities in Japan used region-specific materials. For example, Ueno (1981) who studied in Tokyo in the 1920s used the census data calculated by the Tokyo City Office and Mizuuchi (1982) who studied in Osaka from the 1860s to the 1930s used various statistics created by the prefectural police and so on. For this reason, it is difficult to explore the inter-city comparison on the residential differentiation during the period of modernization in Japan.</p><p>This study assesses the possibility of utilizing telephone directories as a data source to determine differences in geographical residence on the basis of occupation and visualize the distribution of white-collar workers’ residences in the mid-1930s in three Japanese cities: Tokyo, Osaka, and Kyoto. Although the regional situation on the penetration of telephones needs to be considered, the inter-city comparison becomes possible since the telephone directories in which the occupation of telephone subscribers was recorded was made available nationwide in the pre-war period. Since the white-collar workers during that period relatively belonged to the high class, many of them were considered subscribing to telephones. In addition, white-collar workers changed the previous urban structure that consisted of merchants and craftsmen into a modern one. Therefore, white-collar workers are a suitable subject for analyzing the telephone directory and the residential differentiation in the mid-1930s.</p>

A Study on the Distribution of Foreign-Female-Isolated Areas in Japan

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011 made a realization of non-Japanese living dispersed in various areas across Japan. The non-Japanese trainees working in the small-size factories in the underpopulated areas and the immigrant wives married to Japanese men in the farming areas were there to compensate for the decreasing Japanese working-age population and the decreasing number of Japanese women who will marry farmers. These women, mostly Chinese and Filipino, live in local communities, isolated from the other non-Japanese residents; they cannot use their mother tongue, they cannot get mutual helps, and they cannot form ethnic community. Their distribution pattern is very different from that in foreigner-concentrated areas in metropolises like Tokyo and Osaka. Ethnicity studies in geography and sociology have mainly focused on foreigner-concentrated areas. There have been few studies on ethnic minorities who live dispersed among their host society. They have been invisible in Japanese society. This study try to clarify where in Japan non-Japanese are living dispersed and develop the method to measure how sparsely they are scattered.</p><p>This study analyses the distribution pattern on non-Japanese by using the Grid Square Statistics of 2010 Population Census and GIS. The Grid Square Statistics is one of the small area statistics which divides the whole area of Japan into small mesh. This study uses statistics of 1&amp;thinsp;km&amp;thinsp;&amp;times;&amp;thinsp;1&amp;thinsp;km grids (Figure 1).</p><p>So far, we have seen that the degree of the isolation of the non-Japanese woman is remarkable in north-eastern Japan. For example, among the 3,249 inhabited grids of Yamagata Prefecture, 1,291 of which had non-Japanese residents, 509 had only one non-Japanese, and 479 of those 509 non-Japanese were women. In other words, 15.7% of the one-square-kilometre inhabited grids in Yamagata Prefecture had only one non-Japanese resident and that person was female, which is the highest among 47 prefectures in Japan. On the other hand, this ratio was relatively low in the metropolitan areas including Kanagawa prefecture and the prefectures of southwestern Japan (Figure 2).</p><p>This study identifies the grid which have only one non-Japanese and that person is female as “isolated-grid”. In the isolated-grids, there are grids where no foreigners live in the 8 adjacent grids, which could be named as “more-isolated-grid” (Figure 1). When we calculate the proportions of the grids for each prefecture and draw them with Quantile classification (Figure 3, left), isolated-grids are distributed in eastern Japan such as Tohoku region same as Figure 2. On the other hand, more-isolated-grids are found not only in eastern Japan but also in western Japan such as Kyushu (Figure 3, right). This is a new finding that has never been said before.</p>

Small Area Procedures for Estimating Income and Poverty in Egypt

In recent years, the demand for small area statistics has greatly increased worldwide. A recent application of small area estimation (SAE) techniques is in estimating local level poverty measures in Third World countries which is necessary to achieve the Millennium Development Goals. The aim of this research is to study SAE procedures for estimating the mean income and poverty indicators for the Egyptian provinces. For this goal the direct estimators of mean income and (FGT) poverty indicators for all the Egyptian provinces are presented. Also this study applies the empirical best/Bayes (EB) and the pseudo empirical best/Bayes (PEB) methods based on the unit level - nested error - model to estimate mean income and (FGT) poverty indicators for the Egyptian border provinces with (2012-2013) income, expenditure and consumption survey (IECS) data. The (MSEs) and coefficient of variations (C.Vs) are calculated for comparative purposes. Finally the conclusions are introduced. The results show that EB estimators for poverty incidence and poverty gap are smaller than PEB for all selected provinces. EB figures indicate that the largest poverty incidence and gap are for the selected municipality at the scope of the border south west of Egypt (New Valley). The PEB figures indicate that the largest poverty incidence and gap are for the selected municipality at the scope of the border north east of Egypt (North Sinai). As expected, estimated C.Vs for EB of poverty incidence and poverty gap estimators are noticeably larger than those of PEB estimators in all selected provinces.

Estimating small area health-related characteristics of populations: a methodological review

Estimation of health-related characteristics at a fine local geographic level is vital for effective health promotion programmes, provision of better health services and population-specific health planning and management. Lack of a micro-dataset readily available for attributes of individuals at small areas negatively impacts the ability of local and national agencies to manage serious health issues and related risks in the community. A solution to this challenge would be to develop a method that simulates reliable small-area statistics. This paper provides a significant appraisal of the methodologies for estimating health-related characteristics of populations at geographical limited areas. Findings reveal that a range of methodologies are in use, which can be classified as three distinct set of approaches: i) indirect standardisation and individual level modelling; ii) multilevel statistical modelling; and iii) micro-simulation modelling. Although each approach has its own strengths and weaknesses, it appears that microsimulation- based spatial models have significant robustness over the other methods and also represent a more precise means of estimating health-related population characteristics over small areas.