A Theory For Interdecadal Climate Fluctuations

1999 ◽  
pp. 301-308
Author(s):  
D. Gu ◽  
S. G. H. Philander
Keyword(s):  
Climate Fluctuations

Influence of climate fluctuations on development of plant growing in conditions of Western region

2019 ◽  
Vol 97 (9) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
V. Pol'ovyj ◽  
L. Lukaschuk ◽  
M. Luk’ianyk
Keyword(s):  
Western Region ◽  
Climate Fluctuations

Global warming influences dynamics of plague’s epidemic manifestations in XX-XXI centuries

2017 ◽  
pp. 38-40
Author(s):  
E.S. Zenkevich ◽  
N.V. Popov
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
20Th Century ◽  
Modern Trend ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The World ◽  
Low Incidence ◽  
High Level

During the second half of 20th century, a high level of plague incidence in the world was in 1960–1979 and 1990–2009. The significant decrease of infection cases was in 1950–1959, 1980–1989, 2010–2015. It is noticed, that the observed cyclical nature of the alternation of high and low incidence plague’s periods, in many respects related to modern trend of climate fluctuations.

Denouement: World Politics, Systemic Leadership, and Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Thompson ◽  
Leila Zakhirova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
World Politics ◽  
First Century ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Agrarian Economy ◽  
Historical Processes

In this final chapter, we conclude by recapitulating our argument and evidence. One goal of this work has been to improve our understanding of the patterns underlying the evolution of world politics over the past one thousand years. How did we get to where we are now? Where and when did the “modern” world begin? How did we shift from a primarily agrarian economy to a primarily industrial one? How did these changes shape world politics? A related goal was to examine more closely the factors that led to the most serious attempts by states to break free of agrarian constraints. We developed an interactive model of the factors that we thought were most likely to be significant. Finally, a third goal was to examine the linkages between the systemic leadership that emerged from these historical processes and the global warming crisis of the twenty-first century. Climate change means that the traditional energy platforms for system leadership—coal, petroleum, and natural gas—have become counterproductive. The ultimate irony is that we thought that the harnessing of carbon fuels made us invulnerable to climate fluctuations, while the exact opposite turns out to be true. The more carbon fuels are consumed, the greater the damage done to the atmosphere. In many respects, the competition for systemic leadership generated this problem. Yet it is unclear whether systemic leadership will be up to the task of resolving it.

scholarly journals Complete genomes of two extinct New Zealand passerines show responses to climate fluctuations but no evidence for genomic erosion prior to extinction

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (9) ◽  
pp. 20190491 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Dussex ◽  
Johanna von Seth ◽  
Michael Knapp ◽  
Olga Kardailsky ◽  
Bruce C. Robertson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
New Zealand ◽  
Human Impacts ◽  
Oceanic Islands ◽  
Genomic Diversity ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
Forest Clearing ◽  
Mammalian Predators ◽  
Demographic Trajectories ◽  
Human Climate

Human intervention, pre-human climate change (or a combination of both), as well as genetic effects, contribute to species extinctions. While many species from oceanic islands have gone extinct due to direct human impacts, the effects of pre-human climate change and human settlement on the genomic diversity of insular species and the role that loss of genomic diversity played in their extinctions remains largely unexplored. To address this question, we sequenced whole genomes of two extinct New Zealand passerines, the huia ( Heteralocha acutirostris ) and South Island kōkako ( Callaeas cinereus ). Both species showed similar demographic trajectories throughout the Pleistocene. However, the South Island kōkako continued to decline after the last glaciation, while the huia experienced some recovery. Moreover, there was no indication of inbreeding resulting from recent mating among closely related individuals in either species. This latter result indicates that population fragmentation associated with forest clearing by Maōri may not have been strong enough to lead to an increase in inbreeding and exposure to genomic erosion. While genomic erosion may not have directly contributed to their extinctions, further habitat fragmentation and the introduction of mammalian predators by Europeans may have been an important driver of extinction in huia and South Island kōkako.

scholarly journals Middle Holocene Climate Oscillations Recorded in the Western Dvina Lakeland

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 1611
Author(s):  
Agnieszka Mroczkowska ◽  
Dominik Pawłowski ◽  
Emilie Gauthier ◽  
Andrey Mazurkevich ◽  
Tomi P. Luoto ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
River System ◽  
Summer Temperature ◽  
Human Occupation ◽  
Holocene Climate ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Remarkable Feature ◽  
Climate Oscillations ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic Oscillation

Although extensive archeological research works have been conducted in the Serteya region in recent years, the Holocene climate history in the Western Dvina Lakeland in Western Russia is still poorly understood. The Neolithic human occupation of the Serteyka lake–river system responded to climate oscillations, resulting in the development of a pile-dwelling settlement between 5.9 and 4.2 ka cal BP. In this paper, we present the quantitative paleoclimatic reconstructions of the Northgrippian stage (8.2–4.2 ka cal BP) from the Great Serteya Palaeolake Basin. The reconstructions were created based on a multiproxy (Chironomidae, pollen and Cladocera) approach. The mean July air temperature remained at 17–20 °C, which is similar to the present temperature in the Smolensk Upland. The summer temperature revealed only weak oscillations during 5.9 and 4.2 ka cal BP. A more remarkable feature during those events was an increase in continentality, manifested by a lower winter temperature and lower annual precipitation. During the third, intermediate oscillation in 5.0–4.7 ka cal BP, a rise in summer temperature and stronger shifts in continental air masses were recorded. It is still unclear if the above-described climate fluctuations are linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation and can be interpreted as an indication of Bond events because only a few high-resolution paleoclimatic reconstructions from the region have been presented and these reconstructions do not demonstrate explicit oscillations in the period of 5.9 and 4.2 ka cal BP.

scholarly journals Assessing the Response of Snow Avalanche Runout Altitudes to Climate Fluctuations Using Hierarchical Modeling: Application to 61 Winters of Data in France

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (12) ◽  
pp. 3157-3180 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. Eckert ◽  
H. Baya ◽  
M. Deschatres
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hierarchical Modeling ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Level Shift ◽  
Snow Avalanches ◽  
Winter Climate ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
High Magnitude ◽  
Proposed Model

Abstract Snow avalanches are natural hazards strongly controlled by the mountain winter climate, but their recent response to climate change has thus far been poorly documented. In this paper, hierarchical modeling is used to obtain robust indexes of the annual fluctuations of runout altitudes. The proposed model includes a possible level shift, and distinguishes common large-scale signals in both mean- and high-magnitude events from the interannual variability. Application to the data available in France over the last 61 winters shows that the mean runout altitude is not different now than it was 60 yr ago, but that snow avalanches have been retreating since 1977. This trend is of particular note for high-magnitude events, which have seen their probability rates halved, a crucial result in terms of hazard assessment. Avalanche control measures, observation errors, and model limitations are insufficient explanations for these trends. On the other hand, strong similarities in the pattern of behavior of the proposed runout indexes and several climate datasets are shown, as well as a consistent evolution of the preferred flow regime. The proposed runout indexes may therefore be usable as indicators of climate change at high altitudes.

scholarly journals Hydroclimate variability in the low-elevation Atacama Desert over the last 2500 yr

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 287-306 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. Gayo ◽  
C. Latorre ◽  
C. M. Santoro ◽  
A. Maldonado ◽  
R. De Pol-Holz
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Atacama Desert ◽  
Plant Macrofossils ◽  
Central Andes ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Riparian Ecosystems ◽  
Independent Evidence ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The Past

Abstract. Paleoclimate reconstructions reveal that Earth system has experienced sub-millennial scale climate changes over the past two millennia in response to internal/external forcing. Although sub-millennial hydroclimate fluctuations have been detected in the central Andes during this interval, the timing, magnitude, extent and direction of change of these events remain poorly defined. Here, we present a reconstruction of hydroclimate variations on the Pacific slope of the central Andes based on exceptionally well-preserved plant macrofossils and associated archaeological remains from a hyperarid drainage (Quebrada Maní, ∼21° S, 1000 m a.s.l.) in the Atacama Desert. During the late Holocene, riparian ecosystems and farming social groups flourished in the hyperarid Atacama core as surface water availability increased throughout this presently sterile landscape. Twenty-six radiocarbon dates indicate that these events occurred between 1050–680, 1615–1350 and 2500–2040 cal yr BP. Regional comparisons with rodent middens and other records suggest that these events were synchronous with pluvial stages detected at higher-elevations in the central Andes over the last 2500 yr. These hydroclimate changes also coincide with periods of pronounced SST gradients in the Tropical Pacific (La Niña-like mode), conditions that are conducive to significantly increased rainfall in the central Andean highlands and flood events in the low-elevation watersheds at inter-annual timescales. Our findings indicate that the positive anomalies in the hyperarid Atacama over the past 2500 yr represent a regional response of the central Andean climate system to changes in the global hydrological cycle at centennial timescales. Furthermore, our results provide support for the role of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature gradient changes as the primary mechanism responsible for climate fluctuations in the central Andes. Finally, our results constitute independent evidence for comprehending the major trends in cultural evolution of prehistoric peoples that inhabited the region.

Quaternary Mammal Communities: Relevance of the Individualistic Response and Non-Analogue Faunas

2005 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
pp. 141-158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russell W. Graham
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Late Quaternary ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Land Use Management ◽  
Change Analysis ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
Core Species ◽  
Mammal Communities

Frequent and repeated climate fluctuations of the late Quaternary serve as a “natural experiment” for the response of species to environmental change. Analysis of the FAUNMAP database documents individualistic shifts in the geographic distributions for late Quaternary mammals. However, because the individualistic response is not necessarily random and because many species share similar niche parameters, it is possible that some species appear to form coherent groups of core species. In reality their dispersals are individualistic with regard to rate and timing. The individualistic response of mammals, as well as that of other organisms, has created late Quaternary communities without modern analogues. This concept has profound implications for the design of biological reserves and for land use management with respect to future global climate change. However, the relevance of non-analogue mammal communities has been challenged by Alroy (1999), who claims that non-analogue associations were not common in the Quaternary and that they appeared to occur in both the Pleistocene and Holocene. Reexamination of his analysis shows that he employed a different definition for non-analogue faunas and that his methods of analyses created artificially low counts of non-analogue communities and consequently an underestimate of their importance.

Revising key parameters for long-term carbon cycle models

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chloé M. Marcilly ◽  
Trond H. Torsvik ◽  
Mathew Domeier ◽  
Dana L. Royer
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Silicate Weathering ◽  
Geological Time ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
Climate Gradients ◽  
Sea Level Fluctuations ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>CO<sub>2</sub> is the most important greenhouse gas in the Earth’s atmosphere and has fluctuated considerably over geological time. However, proxies for past CO<sub>2 </sub>concentrations have large uncertainties and are mostly limited to Devonian and younger times. Consequently, CO<sub>2</sub> modelling plays a key role in reconstructing past climate fluctuations. Facing the limitations with the current CO<sub>2</sub> models, we aim to refine two important forcings for CO<sub>2</sub> levels over the Phanerozoic, namely carbon degassing and silicate weathering.</p><p>Silicate weathering and carbonate deposition is widely recognized as a primary sink of carbon on geological timescales and is largely influenced by changes in climate, which in turn is linked to changes in paleogeography. The role of paleogeography on silicate weathering fluxes has been the focus of several studies in recent years. Their aims were mostly to constrain climatic parameters such as temperature and precipitation affecting weathering rates through time. However, constraining the availability of exposed land is crucial in assessing the theoretical amount of weathering on geological time scales. Associated with changes in climatic zones, the fluctuation of sea-level is critical for defining the amount of land exposed to weathering. The current reconstructions used in<sub></sub>models tend to overestimate the amount of exposed land to weathering at periods with high sea levels. Through the construction of continental flooding maps, we constrain the effective land area undergoing silicate weathering for the past 520 million years. Our maps not only reflect sea-level fluctuations but also contain climate-sensitive indicators such as coal (since the Early Devonian) and evaporites to evaluate climate gradients and potential weatherablity through time. This is particularly important after the Pangea supercontinent formed but also for some time after its break-up.</p><p>Whilst silicate weathering is an important CO<sub>2</sub> sink, volcanic carbon degassing is a major source but one of the least constrained climate forcing parameters. There is no clear consensus on the history of degassing through geological time as there are no direct proxies for reconstructing carbon degassing, but various proxy methods have been postulated. We propose new estimates of plate tectonic degassing for the Phanerozoic using both subduction flux from full-plate models and zircon age distribution from arcs (arc-activity) as proxies.</p><p>The effect of revised modelling parameters for weathering and degassing was tested in the well-known long-term models GEOCARBSULF and COPSE. They revealed the high influence of degassing on CO<sub>2</sub> levels using those models, highlighting the need for enhanced research in this direction. The use of arc-activity as a proxy for carbon degassing leads to interesting responses in the Mesozoic and brings model estimates closer to CO<sub>2 </sub> proxy values. However, from simulations using simultaneously the revised input parameters (i.e weathering and degassing) large model-proxy discrepancies remain and notably for the Triassic and Jurassic.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Testing Farmers’ Perception of Climate Variability: A Case Study from Kirtipur of Kathmandu Valley

2012 ◽  
pp. 30-34
Author(s):  
Jiban Mani Poudel
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Kathmandu Valley ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
Global And Local

In the 21st century, global climate change has become a public and political discourse. However, there is still a wide gap between global and local perspectives. The global perspective focuses on climate fluctuations that affect the larger region; and their analysis is based on long-term records over centuries and millennium. By comparison, local peoples’ perspectives vary locally, and local analyses are limited to a few days, years, decades and generations only. This paper examines how farmers in Kirtipur of Kathmandu Valley, Nepal, understand climate variability in their surroundings. The researcher has used a cognized model to understand farmers’ perception on weather fluctuations and climate change. The researcher has documented several eyewitness accounts of farmers about weather fluctuations which they have been observing in a lifetime. The researcher has also used rainfall data from 1970-2009 to test the accuracy of perceptions. Unlike meteorological analyses, farmers recall and their understanding of climatic variability by weather-crop interaction, and events associating with climatic fluctuations and perceptions are shaped by both physical visibility and cultural frame or belief system.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.3126/hn.v11i1.7200 Hydro Nepal Special Issue: Conference Proceedings 2012 pp.30-34

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