Increasing risk of meteorological drought in the Lake Urmia basin under climate change: Introducing the precipitation–temperature deciles index

2021 ◽  
Vol 592 ◽  
pp. 125586 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Sadegh Abbasian ◽  
Mohammad Reza Najafi ◽  
Ahmad Abrishamchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Lake Urmia ◽  
Precipitation Temperature ◽  
Increasing Risk

Colorado River flow dwindles as warming-driven loss of reflective snow energizes evaporation

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 367 (6483) ◽  
pp. 1252-1255 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. C. D. Milly ◽  
K. A. Dunne
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Water Shortages ◽  
Increasing Risk

The sensitivity of river discharge to climate-system warming is highly uncertain, and the processes that govern river discharge are poorly understood, which impedes climate-change adaptation. A prominent exemplar is the Colorado River, where meteorological drought and warming are shrinking a water resource that supports more than 1 trillion dollars of economic activity per year. A Monte Carlo simulation with a radiation-aware hydrologic model resolves the longstanding, wide disparity in sensitivity estimates and reveals the controlling physical processes. We estimate that annual mean discharge has been decreasing by 9.3% per degree Celsius of warming because of increased evapotranspiration, mainly driven by snow loss and a consequent decrease in reflection of solar radiation. Projected precipitation increases likely will not suffice to fully counter the robust, thermodynamically induced drying. Thus, an increasing risk of severe water shortages is expected.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydro-meteorological drought over the Be River Basin, Viet Nam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Truong Thao Sam ◽  
Pham Thi Loi ◽  
Bui Viet Hung ◽  
Van Thinh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Meteorological Droughts

Abstract In this paper, the responses of hydro-meteorological drought to changing climate in the Be River Basin located in Southern Vietnam are investigated. Climate change scenarios for the study area were statistically downscaled using the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator tool, which incorporates climate projections from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) based on an ensemble of five general circulation models (Can-ESM2, CNRM-CM5, HadGEM2-AO, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI-ESM-MR) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was employed to simulate streamflow for the baseline time period and three consecutive future 20 year periods of 2030s (2021–2040), 2050s (2041–2060), and 2070s (2061–2080). Based on the simulation results, the Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Discharge Index were estimated to evaluate the features of hydro-meteorological droughts. The hydrological drought has 1-month lag time from the meteorological drought and the hydro-meteorological droughts have negative correlations with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and Pacific Decadal Oscillation. Under the climate changing impacts, the trends of drought severity will decrease in the future; while the trends of drought frequency will increase in the near future period (2030s), but decrease in the following future periods (2050 and 2070s). The findings of this study can provide useful information to the policy and decisionmakers for a better future planning and management of water resources in the study region.

How Climate Change and Human Interaction Alter Chemical Regime in Salt Lakes, Case Study: Lake Urmia, Aral Sea, the Dead Sea, and Lake Issyk-Kul

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Evgeniy V. Yakushev ◽  
Natalia Yu. Andrulionis ◽  
Mahnaz Jafari ◽  
Hamid A. K. Lahijani ◽  
Peygham Ghaffari
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Dead Sea ◽  
Human Interaction ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Salt Lakes ◽  
Lake Urmia ◽  
Study Lake ◽  
The Dead

scholarly journals Risk assessment of meteorological drought in China under RCP scenarios from 2016 to 2050

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuo Li ◽  
Jie Pan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Drought Risk ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Climate change has been a hotspot of scientific research in the world for decades, which caused serious effects of agriculture, water resources, ecosystem, environment, human health and so on. In China, drought accounts for almost 50 % of the total loss among all the meteorological disasters. In this article the interpolated and corrected precipitation of one GCM (HadGEM2-ES) output under four emission scenarios (RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5) were used to analyze the drought. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) calculated with these data was used to assess the climate change impact on droughts from meteorological perspectives. Based on five levels of SPI, an integrated index of drought hazard (IIDH) was established, which could explain the frequency and intensity of meteorological drought in different regions. According to yearbooks of different provinces, 15 factors have been chosen which could represent the impact of drought on human being, crops, water resources and economy. Exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptation index have been calculated in almost 2400 counties and vulnerability of drought has been evaluated. Based on hazard and vulnerability evaluation of drought, risk assessment of drought in China under the RCP2.6, 4.5, 6.0, 8.5 emission scenarios from 2016 to 2050 has been done. Results from such a comprehensive study over the whole country could be used not only to inform on potential impacts for specific sectors but also can be used to coordinate adaptation/mitigation strategies among different sectors/regions by the central government.

scholarly journals Climate change or irrigated agriculture – what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Schulz ◽  
Sahand Darehshouri ◽  
Elmira Hassanzadeh ◽  
Massoud Tajrishy ◽  
Christoph Schüth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Lake Urmia ◽  
Water Level Decline

scholarly journals Evaluation of drought indices at interannual to climate change timescales: a case study over the Amazon and Mississippi river basins

2012 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 13231-13249 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Joetzjer ◽  
H. Douville ◽  
C. Delire ◽  
P. Ciais ◽  
B. Decharme ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Discharge ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
River Basins ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The present study compares three meteorological drought indices (scPDSI, SPI and SPEI respectively) and their ability to account for the variations of annual mean river discharge on both interannual and climate change timescales. The Standardized Runoff Index (SRI) is used as a proxy of river discharge. The Mississippi and Amazon river basins provide two contrasted testbeds for this analysis. All meteorological drought indices are derived from monthly 2-meter temperature and/or precipitation, using either gridded observations or outputs of a global climate model. The SPI based solely on precipitation is not outperformed by the SPEI (accounting for potential evapotranspiration) and the scPDSI (based on a simplified water balance) at detecting interannual SRI variations. Under increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, the simulated response of the areal fraction in drought is highly index-dependent, suggesting that more physical water balance models are needed to account for the impact of global warming on hydrological droughts.

scholarly journals Climate change or irrigated agriculture – what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephan Schulz ◽  
Sahand Darehshouri ◽  
Elmira Hassanzadeh ◽  
Christoph Schüth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Water Withdrawal ◽  
Water Volume ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Agricultural Water ◽  
Lake Urmia ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Water Level Decline

<p>Lake Urmia is one of the largest hypersaline lakes on earth with a unique biodiversity. Over the past two decades the lake water level declined dramatically, threatening the functionality of the lake’s ecosystems. There is a controversial debate about the reasons for this decline, with either mismanagement of the water resources, or climatic changes assumed to be the main cause.</p><p>During this study we gathered an extensive hydro-meteorological data set, information about the reservoirs and the lake bathymetry. This data served for a quantification of the water budget components of Lake Urmia over the last five decades. Interestingly, a comparison of the temporal patterns of the principal natural boundary conditions of streamflow (precipitation and evaporation) with the inflow to the lake revealed that the variability of the inflow can be well explained its natural drivers. With this we can show that variations of Lake Urmia’s water level during the analyzed period were mainly triggered by climatic changes.</p><p>However, under the current climatic conditions agricultural water extraction volumes are significant and often exceed the remaining surface water inflow volumes. This rather simple observation shows that something deeper needs to be dug here. Therefore, we performed a parsimonious hindcast experiment and run a set of development scenarios based on the previously developed water balance. This helped us to better quantify the human impact on the development of the water volume of Lake Urmia. We could show that changes in agricultural water withdrawal would have a significant impact on the lake volume and could either stabilize the lake, or lead to its complete collapse (Schulz et al., 2020).</p><p> </p><p><strong>References</strong></p><p>Schulz, S., Darehshouri, S., Hassanzadeh, E., Tajrishy, M. and Schüth, C.: Climate change or irrigated agriculture – what drives the water level decline of Lake Urmia, Sci. Rep., 10(1), 236, doi:10.1038/s41598-019-57150-y, 2020.</p>

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