Cyclical capitalization and lag vacancy

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio d’Amato
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Valuation Process

Purpose This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been recently proposed as a family of income approach methodologies called cyclical capitalization (d’Amato, 2013; d’Amato, 2015; d’Amato, 2017). Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology tries to integrate real estate market cycle analysis and forecast inside the valuation process allowing the appraiser to deal with real estate market phases analysis and their consequence in the local real estate market. Findings The findings consist in the creation of a methodology proposed for market value and in particular for mortgage lending determination, as the model may have the capability to reach prudent opinion of value in all the real estate market phase. Research limitations/implications Research limitation consists mainly in a limited number of sample of time series of rent and in the forecast of more than a cap rate or yield rate even if it is quite commonly accepted the cyclical nature of the real estate market. Practical implications The implication of the proposed methodology is a modified approach to direct capitalization finding more flexible approaches to appraise income producing properties sensitive to the upturn and downturn of the real estate market. Social implications The model proposed can be considered useful for the valuation process of those property affected by the property market cycle, both in the mortgage lending and market value determination. Originality/value These methodologies try to integrate in the appraisal process the role of property market cycles. Cyclical capitalization modelling includes in the traditional dividend discount model more than one g-factor to plot property market cycle dealing with the future in a different way. It must be stressed the countercyclical nature of the cyclical capitalization that may be helpful in the determination of mortgage lending value. This is a very important characteristic of such models.

Godrej properties: valuation using the capital cash flow technique

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Rajni Kant Rajhans
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Firm Valuation ◽  
Free Cash Flow ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Learning outcomes The case is focused to meet the following learning objectives: the readers will be able to recall basic cash flow estimation concepts; and the readers will be able to explain various features of capital cash flow (CCF). The participants will be able to implement the CCF model in real estate firm valuation. The participants will be able to compare CCF and free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) models. The participants will be able to evaluate the benefits of CCF over FCFF. The readers will be able to construct the CCF valuation model for firm valuation. Case overview/synopsis On 19th April 2019, Mr Kai, an analyst tracking real estate firms was excited to present to his team a new robust technique of firm valuation suitable for real estate companies, namely, the CCF technique and was also keen to deliberate on its application. Though the investment scope using this technique could be located in Godrej properties (GP), a reputed brand and the largest listed real estate developer by sales in 2018, yet, he was concerned about the assumptions of growth of real estate industry in India, in general, and the GP in particular. Importantly, this was because the real estate market in India was undergoing many structural changes. For instance, the buyers’ preferences were changing and unsold inventory in the industry was at its peak. Under these market conditions, an announcement was made by GP about a target return on equity of 20% in 2018–2023 expecting a dominant place in the real estate market in India, which also carried the threat of jeopardizing the reputation of GP, if under any circumstance the target was not accomplished. Complexity academic level Masters program. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Subject code CSS: 11 Strategy.

Investor attention for retail and institutional investors: a test on the real estate market

2013 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 314-328
Author(s):  
Gianluca Mattarocci ◽  
Georgios Siligardos
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Institutional Investors ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Investor Attention ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market

PurposeThe paper aims to investigate the relationship between different investor attention proxies for different types of funds (retail vs institutional ones) looking at a sample of real estate funds.Design/methodology/approachThe authors collect data about searching frequency on Google and all the news published in Italian specialized newspapers for a set of real estate funds. Following the approach proposed by Da, Engelberg and Gao, the authors construct a set of attention proxies and they compare the ranking with some summary statistics and evaluate the causality relationship among them using a Granger causality test.FindingsResults demonstrate that online search frequency is relevant for both institutional and retail funds and normally internet data are able to anticipate the news that will be published in the newspapers.Research limitations/implicationsThe analysis proposed is focused only on a small real estate market (Italy) where funds are specialized for the type of investor. A wider database can allow excluding that results achieved are biased by the specific features of the market analysed.Practical implicationsThe role of internet proxies attention measures also for institutional investors demonstrate that the managing companies offering financial instruments reserved to institutional investors should consider both channels of information – newspapers and the internet – to measure any positive or negative sign of investor attention to their products.Originality/valueThe article represents the first analysis of investor attention proxies on the real estate market and the first comparison of investor attention proxies for retail and institutional investors.

scholarly journals MACRO DYNAMICS OF THE REAL ESTATE MARKET VALUE: TEMPORAL EFFECTS

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (13) ◽  
pp. 119
Author(s):  
Tomas Skripkiūnas ◽  
Valentinas Navickas
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Temporal Effects ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Financialisation and development: a case study of Ethiopia

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 138-196
Author(s):  
Anne Löscher
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Economic Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Debt Levels

Purpose This paper aims to shed light on financial development in Ethiopia and its implications for overall economic development. It does so with particular focus on development understood as industrial development and with special attention drawn on inequality and debt levels as well as the real estate market in Ethiopia. Two research questions are focussed on in particular, where the first serves as prerequisite for the assessment of the second: What kind of financial development took place in Ethiopia in the past quarter of a century? Furthermore, are processes of financialisation visible in Ethiopia, and if so, to what effect? Design/methodology/approach The paper is based on publicly available macro-data and qualitative and quantitative data collected by the author herself during a three months’ research stay in Ethiopia. Findings It is found that despite higher levels of financial inclusion and deepening, industrialisation is on a relative decline. What is more, inequality and debt levels increase, and the recent growth spurts seem to be rooted in the construction sector with prices in the real estate market surging. In can be concluded that despite a flourishing financial sector, the Ethiopian economy is faced with the peril of crises associated with an inflated real estate market, inequality, debt burdens and impeded industrialisation. Originality/value African economies and, in particular, the development and effects of financial markets are still a blind spot in economic research. By combining quantitative and qualitative data on and gathered in Ethiopia, this paper therefore conducts greenfield research.

Real Estate Valuation Fraud

2015 ◽  
pp. 278-291
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Personal Gain ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Valuation ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Real Market

Valuation profession is a link between the borrower and the lender. Fraud is an intentional deliberate deception committed for illegitimate personal gain. There are several forms of real estate fraud, especially when the real estate market is facing a boom. The most widespread types of real estate fraud include the preparation of two sets of settlement statements, property flipping, and fraudulent qualifications. There are mainly three types of valuation to look out for. Valuation may be received from an unauthorized agency. Furthermore, a real valuation may be altered from the original to generate profit. Thirdly, intentional inflation of the value of a property will hide the real market value. It is usually difficult to spot real estate fraudulent activities, so deep investigations and professionalism is needed. This chapter explores real estate fraud.

scholarly journals The Problem of Competition on Real Estate Market on the Example of the Local Housing Market in Olsztyn

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 69-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oksana Kuryj-Wysocka ◽  
Radosław Wiśniewski
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Price Competition ◽  
Free Market ◽  
Fundamental Principle ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
The Real Estate Market

Abstract In the economic theory, competition is considered to be a fundamental principle of the free market. Due to the competition, customers get lower prices, better service quality, more and more choices. The competition in the real estate market is a very important factor in its development. Buying or selling real estate is often one of the most important financial transactions, which require the purchaser. With the reference to the above, the participants of the real estate market need to analyse a number of transactions and do a detailed understanding of the market before making a decision and finding a deal that meets all the expectations which will not be diverging significantly from remaining offers functioning in the given area of the market. The phenomenon of competition is very advantageous for buyers of a real estate, because it shows a wide range of various possibilities which one should consider before making a final choice. Times of crisis trigger a tendency of the growing competition in the property market, what results in a decrease in real estate prices. This article brings up the issue of price and non-price competition on the real estate market and the influence which it exerts on the decision of the purchaser. The aim of this paper is to present the phenomenon of the competition at three levels (levels), by examining what relationship occurs between the entities functioning on the market, what occurs between entities and objects, and how the entities, i.e. individual real estate, compete with each other. This study will be conducted with methods of statistical analysis of the market, however Herfindahl-Hirschman Index will be used to measure competition on the local real estate market.

scholarly journals Market and cadastral data comparison for the real estate market value forecasting

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 44-54
Author(s):  
M. B. Laskin ◽  
P. A. Cherkesova
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Normal Distribution ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Residential Real Estate ◽  
Market Data ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Saint Petersburg ◽  
The Real Estate Market

The aim of the research is to develop theoretical and methodological approaches to market value forecasting in the real estate market. The relevance of the research is determined by the system-forming place that the real estate market occupies in the economy of the country and regions, affecting the interests of owners of various forms of ownership, construction and development companies, insurance companies, banks. Another aspect that determines the actuality of the study is the discrepancy between well-structured cadastral databases and market data dispersed between different owners of information resources, and the unstructured nature of market data, which in most cases is focused on advertising, rather than on analytical market research.Materials and methods. The study uses a model of a multidimensional logarithmically normal distribution law of the ensemble of prices for residential real estate at equidistant points of time and cadastral value, the ARIMA model for predicting market value, taking into account the features of the logarithmically normal distribution of prices, as a distribution with positive asymmetry. As a statistical material, we used market data on residential real estate published in the periodical press in the period from the end of 2012 to 2018. The volume of samples of weekly publications is 15000-20000 objects; data for 21 quarters (more than five years) was used. As a comparison base, we used data from cadastral registration of real estate objects in Saint Petersburg for 2018. The total volume of the cadastral database of residential real estate in Saint Petersburg (individual apartments) is 2 226734 objects with a fairly complete (and well-structured) set of price-forming factors. The authors propose a method for estimating the most likely movement of the market value for a pre-selected real estate object that has passed cadastral registration and has a cadastral value entered in the register and predicting the market value in the future period.Results. The theoretical significance of the work is the proposed algorithm for estimating the most probable trajectory of the market value of the investigated object, based on the conditional multivariate log-normal distribution for a given value of the cadastral value. A well-developed and studied ARIMA time series forecasting model is applied to the logarithms of the obtained time series, the return from logarithmic prices to real prices is carried out taking into account the peculiarities of the logarithmically normal distribution. Results are compared with median scores and estimates, obtained by average values.Conclusion. The paper shows that the introduction of cadastral value in the Russian Federation opens up new opportunities for analyzing and forecasting market prices, since cadastral databases contain the most complete lists of real estate objects, including the cadastral value, which now, in accordance with the law, must be updated at least once every three years and, as of 2015 and 2018, was determined as the market value, therefore, until the next cadastral assessment, can serve as a basis for constant comparison with market data, which are constantly changing, primarily in the composition of objects.

scholarly journals MICROECONOMICS OF ARCHITECTURE: BETWEEN MARKET AND PUBLIC

2020 ◽  
Vol Vol. 36 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 85-90
Author(s):  
Valentinas Navickas ◽  
Tomas Skripkiunas
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Public Goods ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Nonmarket Goods ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Different Types

The position of architecture between market goods and public goods is addressed in this study. A transition of architectural objects of built environment from market goods towards public or nonmarket goods is presented in literature review. The real estate market value is highly influenced by concepts of externalities and public goods, therefore being highly spatially dependent and making the process of the real estate valuation more complex. The internalization of these externalities and public goods is impossible because of the nature of public space in the city. The concept of value and different types of value, like exchange, use, image, social, environmental, cultural value, are also presented in literature review. These different types of value are transferred to value in exchange when estimating market value. The aim of research is to calculate the amount of the real estate market value that is influenced by externalities, public or nonmarket goods. The process of value transfers between market and public is also discussed in this study. In the research part prices of similar apartments measure the coefficient of variance. Newly constructed apartment buildings with partial finishing interior within city boundaries are selected expecting their price to vary only because of different amount of externalities and public goods available inside district/region of selected building or provided by the actual building itself. The results show that up to 29% of the real estate market value is influenced by public or nonmarket goods. Implications of further research suggest controlling for market segmentation and architectural quality variables

scholarly journals Calendar Effects on the Real Estate Market

2013 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-21 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justyna Brzezicka ◽  
Radosław Wiśniewski
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Behavioral Sciences ◽  
The Real ◽  
Calendar Effects ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Seasonal Diversity

Abstract Social and economic phenomena that rely on "soft" factors to explain the market reality supply highly valuable observations. Behavioral elements should not be omitted in analyses of the real estate market because the latest developments in behavioral sciences significantly contribute to our understanding of this market. The popularity of behavioral research in social and economic sciences provokes an examination of the significance of behavioral analyses on the real estate market. As an object of social and economic inquiry, the property market can benefit from recent achievements in behavioral sciences which expand the explanatory potential of studies based on the neoclassical model. This paper analyzes calendar anomalies, generally referred to as calendar effects, on the real estate market. This phenomenon has been observed on the capital market and has been investigated and described by behavioral finance. The research hypothesis tested in this study is that calendar effects are present on the real estate market. This paper aims to: 1) review calendar effects as model phenomena on the real estate market, 2) determine whether calendar effects occur on the real estate market and, if so, identify those anomalies, 3) determine whether and to what extent the real estate market is governed by seasonal diversity, 4) explain the significance of calendar effects to the real estate market. Research goals were pursued based on analyses of real estate transactions conducted in Olsztyn between 2004 and 2011.

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