scholarly journals Long lease real estate – a revised role for real estate in pension fund portfolios

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nick Mansley ◽  
Zilong Wang
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Pension Fund ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Fund Managers ◽  
Regulatory Guidance ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Dramatic Growth

PurposeLong lease real estate funds (over £15bn in Q3 2020) have emerged as an increasingly important part of UK pension fund real estate portfolios. This paper explores the reasons for their dramatic growth, their characteristics and performance.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses data for the period 2004–2020 collected directly from fund managers and from AREF/MSCI and empirical analysis to explore their characteristics and performance.FindingsPension fund de-risking and regulatory guidance have supported the dramatic growth of long lease real estate funds. Long lease real estate funds have delivered strong risk-adjusted returns relative to both balanced property funds (with shorter lease terms) and the wider property market. This relative performance has been particularly strong when wider property market performance has been weak. Long lease funds have objectives aligned with liability matching and their performance suggests they are lower risk (more bond-like) investments. In addition, our analysis highlights they are far less responsive to the wider property market than balanced funds. However, they are not significantly different from balanced property funds in terms of their short-term relationship with gilt yield movements.Practical implicationsFor pension funds and other investors the paper highlights that long lease real estate funds offer a different exposure than balanced property funds. Long lease funds have objectives more closely aligned to the overall objectives for pension fund investment but are not significantly more reliable than balanced property funds in the short-term as a liability hedge. For real estate fund managers, occupiers, developers and others active in the real estate market, the paper highlights why these funds have been (and are likely to remain) attractive to investors leading to substantial demand for long lease real estate investments.Originality/valueThis is the first study to review this increasingly important part of the UK real estate fund universe.

scholarly journals SIGNIFICANCE AND PERFORMANCE OF PROPERTY MARKETS IN MALAYSIA

2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohd Haris Yop
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Business Environment ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Study Data ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Transparency International ◽  
And Performance ◽  
Environment Index ◽  
Property Markets

The importance of the global real estate market has been widely debated over the last decade. Prior discussion has focused on various aspects of analysis used to evaluate the performance of the property market, such as statistical analysis, surveys, academic or industrial literature. As a result, it is also necessary to examine the global and Asian property markets while also evaluating the significance and performance of the Malaysian property market in comparison to other Asian markets to determine Malaysia's international contribution to the global property market. The performance of Malaysia's property market from 2015 to 2018 was examined in this study. Data was gathered using Thomson Router Data Stream from Real Capital Analytic, Asia Pacific Real Estate Association (APREA), World Economic Forum, and Transparency International, among others. The study's findings will extend knowledge not only of the performance and significance of the Malaysian property market, but also of GDP growth, inflation rate, market ranking global, competitiveness business environment index, corruption perception, and risk and transparency index in Malaysia and across Asian countries. The overall results indicate that the performance and signs of the Malaysian real estate market were better compared to other Asian and developing markets.

Cyclical capitalization and lag vacancy

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 211-238 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maurizio d’Amato
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Market Value ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Mortgage Lending ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Valuation Process

Purpose This paper aims to propose a new valuation method for income producing properties. The model originally called cyclical dividend discount models (d’Amato, 2003) has been recently proposed as a family of income approach methodologies called cyclical capitalization (d’Amato, 2013; d’Amato, 2015; d’Amato, 2017). Design/methodology/approach The proposed methodology tries to integrate real estate market cycle analysis and forecast inside the valuation process allowing the appraiser to deal with real estate market phases analysis and their consequence in the local real estate market. Findings The findings consist in the creation of a methodology proposed for market value and in particular for mortgage lending determination, as the model may have the capability to reach prudent opinion of value in all the real estate market phase. Research limitations/implications Research limitation consists mainly in a limited number of sample of time series of rent and in the forecast of more than a cap rate or yield rate even if it is quite commonly accepted the cyclical nature of the real estate market. Practical implications The implication of the proposed methodology is a modified approach to direct capitalization finding more flexible approaches to appraise income producing properties sensitive to the upturn and downturn of the real estate market. Social implications The model proposed can be considered useful for the valuation process of those property affected by the property market cycle, both in the mortgage lending and market value determination. Originality/value These methodologies try to integrate in the appraisal process the role of property market cycles. Cyclical capitalization modelling includes in the traditional dividend discount model more than one g-factor to plot property market cycle dealing with the future in a different way. It must be stressed the countercyclical nature of the cyclical capitalization that may be helpful in the determination of mortgage lending value. This is a very important characteristic of such models.

scholarly journals International Real Estate Review

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 151-170
Author(s):  
Lucia Gibilaro ◽  
◽  
Gianluca Mattarocci ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Risk Exposure ◽  
Bank Risk ◽  
Property Market ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
Market Trends ◽  
And Performance

The literature primarily focuses on the effect of changes on property prices in terms of macrovariables and monetary aggregates. Only a few studies have taken into account bank characteristics when considering the effects of real estate market trends on bank lending policies and performance, and there is no study that controls for the type of bank or loan purpose. The paper studies the linkage between property market trends and bank risk exposure. We test for any significant difference of real estate banks with respect to other banks and the different roles of the real estate market trend in explaining changes in bank risk exposure. The empirical evidence demonstrates that real estate banks are not always riskier than other banks, and specialized banks are less sensitive to real estate market trends than other banks.

The sluggish Emirati economy faces new challenges

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Abu Dhabi ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Estate Markets ◽  
New Challenges ◽  
Economic Developments ◽  
Realistic Appraisal

Significance This partly reflects the February 16 decision of DP World to delist its shares, which dominated the Nasdaq Dubai, but also comes amid other troubling recent economic developments for the United Arab Emirates (UAE), including the continued decline in the Dubai and Abu Dhabi real estate markets and the mounting impact of COVID-19 coronavirus. Impacts If successful, Expo Dubai could provide a short-term boost for the suffering real estate market and hospitality sectors. The natural gas find still needs realistic appraisal but might help the UAE move away from being a net gas importer. DP World’s removal from the Nasdaq Dubai will reinforce arguments for the creation of a unified UAE equities market.

Convergence between direct and indirect real estate investments

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 212-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Gbolahan Ekemode ◽  
Abel Olaleye
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Asset Portfolio ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Improved Performance ◽  
Real Estate Assets

Purpose This paper aimed to examine the return/risk performance of direct and indirect real estate (listed property stock) in the Nigerian real estate market and analyzed the short-term integration between the two classes of real estate assets. It also established whether investors could achieve diversification benefits by combining both assets in a portfolio. Design/methodology/approach The data utilized comprised annual returns on direct real estate calculated from the rental and capital values of 226 direct commercial properties obtained from property valuers in Lagos, Nigeria, for a period of January 1999-December 2014. The appraisal-based direct real estate returns were de-smoothed using the Geltner (1993) procedure. The annual returns of indirect real estate were also computed from the transactions of listed property stock on the Nigerian Stock Exchange for the study period. The return-risk profiles were also broken down into short- and medium-term sub-periods, comprising 3, 5, 8 and 12 years to reflect the level of volatility in the market, whereas the nature of the short-term relationship between the two real estate assets classes was tested using Granger causality technique. Findings The results revealed that listed property stock performed better than unsmoothed direct real estate on a risk-adjusted performance basis. The performance profile, however, varies over the different sub-periods considered. Short-term integration analysis showed that there was no bidirectional relationship between direct and listed property stock, implying diversification and risk reduction possibilities in combining both assets with other asset classes in a domestic asset portfolio. Overall, the results confirm the findings of previous study that listed property stocks return is segmented from the direct real estate market upon which its pricing and trading in the stock market are based. Practical implications The conclusion of the study suggests that investors could achieve improved performance by investing in listed property stocks than direct real estate in the Nigerian real estate market. The inclusion of both assets in a domestic mixed-asset portfolio could also be expected to offer diversification and risk reduction benefits. Originality/value This is one of the few studies that examine the short-run integration between direct real estate and listed property stocks with a focus on an emerging African market.

Downturn in Greece and abroad will sap property market

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Economic Downturn ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Real Estate ◽  
Large Cities ◽  
The Real Estate Market ◽  
Push Down ◽  
First Time

Significance This second extension is due to a slower-than-expected fall in cases in the COVID-19 pandemic’s second wave: 904 new infections were reported in the previous 24 hours yesterday, the first time since October 26 that daily cases have fallen below 1,000. The lockdown’s restrictions on economic activity threaten to reverse the nascent economic recovery, including in the real estate market. Impacts An economic downturn in investors’ home markets could dampen demand for Greek properties. The volumes of non-performing loans secured by real estate are expected to rise along with increased corporate insolvencies. An increased supply of properties for long-term residential rentals will push down rents in large cities.

scholarly journals Market maturity: China commercial real estate market

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 4-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qiulin Ke ◽  
Karen Sieracki
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Evolutionary Process ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Commercial Real Estate ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Commercial Property ◽  
High Government ◽  
International Investors

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the evolutionary path to market maturity that China property market has taken over the last few decades. The focus is on the commercial real estate markets in Beijing and Shanghai. It will help international investors understand the market environment, risk and market activity process. Design/methodology/approach – In this research, the authors apply the market maturity framework and its key determinants based on previous work undertaken by Keogh and D’Arcy (1994) and Chin et al. (2006) for the analysis of Chinese commercial property market. Particular focus is on Beijing and Shanghai. The questionnaire is designed to obtain fair and objective views from international property consultancy firms active in Beijing and Shanghai markets. There are not many of these international property consultancies. The reason why this type of business was selected was to insure that the business had an understanding of China’s place in the global commercial real estate market as this market matures from its emerging market status. Findings – The findings reveal that the respondents felt the commercial property markets in Shanghai and Beijing were now moderately mature. However, issues such as poorer level of standard market information, development instability, low transparency of the legal system, high taxes and high government invention still existed in China’s commercial property market, therefore hindering its progress towards greater market maturity. Research limitations/implications – The small same size of the survey is the major limitation of the research. Practical implications – International investors and analysts can benefit from the research findings through a better understanding of the behaviour and trends in this unique market which will be reflected in their decision-making process. Originality/value – An explorative approach was used due to the lack of data to examine the perception of China’s commercial property market’s evolution and maturity. The findings can then be placed in the context of other Southeast Asian cities. The evolutionary process of China’s property market is rarely examined in previous studies of China property market due to the lack of data and transparency.

Artificial intelligence, news sentiment, and property market liquidity

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 309-325
Author(s):  
Johannes Braun ◽  
Jochen Hausler ◽  
Wolfgang Schäfers
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Global Market ◽  
Price Impact ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Sentiment ◽  
Distributed Lag

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to use a text-based sentiment indicator to explain variations in direct property market liquidity in the USA. Design/methodology/approach By means of an artificial neural network, market sentiment is extracted from 66,070 US real estate market news articles from the S&P Global Market Intelligence database. For training of the network, a distant supervision approach utilizing 17,822 labeled investment ideas from the crowd-sourced investment advisory platform Seeking Alpha is applied. Findings According to the results of autoregressive distributed lag models including contemporary and lagged sentiment as independent variables, the derived textual sentiment indicator is not only significantly linked to the depth and resilience dimensions of market liquidity (proxied by Amihud’s (2002) price impact measure), but also to the breadth dimension (proxied by transaction volume). Practical implications These results suggest an intertemporal effect of sentiment on liquidity for the direct property market. Market participants should account for this effect in terms of their investment decisions, and also when assessing and pricing liquidity risk. Originality/value This paper not only extends the literature on text-based sentiment indicators in real estate, but is also the first to apply artificial intelligence for sentiment extraction from news articles in a market liquidity setting.

What drives housing prices, rent and new construction in China

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 662-686
Author(s):  
Dimitrios Staikos ◽  
Wenjun Xue
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Empirical Test ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Estimation Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
New Construction ◽  
Using Data ◽  
First Time

Purpose With this paper, the authors aim to investigate the drivers behind three of the most important aspects of the Chinese real estate market, housing prices, housing rent and new construction. At the same time, the authors perform a comprehensive empirical test of the popular 4-quadrant model by Wheaton and DiPasquale. Design/methodology/approach In this paper, the authors utilize panel cointegration estimation methods and data from 35 Chinese metropolitan areas. Findings The results indicate that the 4-quadrant model is well suited to explain the determinants of housing prices. However, the same is not true regarding housing rent and new construction suggesting a more complex theoretical framework may be required for a well-rounded explanation of real estate markets. Originality/value It is the first time that panel data are used to estimate rent and new construction for China. Also, it is the first time a comprehensive test of the Wheaton and DiPasquale 4-quadrant model is performed using data from China.

Linkages between cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 123-146 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Hiang Liow
Keyword(s):  
Real Estate ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Real Estate Market ◽  
Stock Market Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Market Index ◽  
Cross Country ◽  
The Cross

Purpose This research aims to investigate whether and to what extent the co-movements of cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles are linked across G7 from February 1990 to June 2014. Design/methodology/approach The empirical approaches include correlation analysis on Hodrick–Prescott (HP) cycles, HP cycle return spillovers effects using Diebold and Yilmaz’s (2012) spillover index methodology, as well as Croux et al.’s (2001) dynamic correlation and cohesion methodology. Findings There are fairly strong cycle-return spillover effects between the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles. The interactions among the cross-country business cycles, cross-country stock market cycles and cross-country real estate market cycles in G7 are less positively pronounced or exhibit counter-cyclical behavior at the traditional business cycle (medium-term) frequency band when “pure” stock market cycles are considered. Research limitations/implications The research is subject to the usual limitations concerning empirical research. Practical implications This study finds that real estate is an important factor in influencing the degree and behavior of the relationship between cross-country business cycles and cross-country stock market cycles in G7. It provides important empirical insights for portfolio investors to understand and forecast the differential benefits and pitfalls of portfolio diversification in the long-, medium- and short-cycle horizons, as well as for research studying the linkages between the real economy and financial sectors. Originality/value In adding to the existing body of knowledge concerning economic globalization and financial market interdependence, this study evaluates the linkages between business cycles, stock market cycles and public real estate market cycles cross G7 and adds to the academic real estate literature. Because public real estate market is a subset of stock market, our approach is to use an original stock market index, as well as a “pure” stock market index (with the influence of real estate market removed) to offer additional empirical insights from two key complementary perspectives.

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