Vote breakdown will shape Nigeria poll outcome

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Run Off

Subject Scenarios for Nigeria's presidential and legislative elections. Significance Presidential and legislative elections are scheduled for February 14, with governorship polls set for February 28. The ruling People's Democratic Party's (PDP) candidate is President Goodluck Jonathan, who is running for a second term. The opposition All Progressives Congress' presidential candidate is General Muhammadu Buhari. The presidential polls are expected to be the most competitive since 1999, laying the groundwork for several different outcomes. Impacts On one level, the security chief's call for electoral delay was designed to detract from the army's failure against Boko Haram. However, it also reflects valid concerns about voter card distribution challenges, particularly in the north. Yet a decision by the commission to delay the election at this stage would be highly controversial, likely to create a backlash. The commission called the election three months ahead of the constitutional requirement, although primarily to make time for a run-off. Yet low popular confidence in electoral administration will raise violence risks, particularly in the north.

Argentine opposition will struggle to maintain unity

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
New Right ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type

Significance However, ahead of the November 14 legislative elections, JxC will have to mend internal divisions between moderates and hardliners, respond to the challenge posed by new right-wing forces, and postpone debates about their 2023 presidential candidate. Impacts Neither JxC nor the FdT as yet has a clear presidential frontrunner for 2023. Victories by Rodriguez Larreta’s allies in the November elections would strengthen his leadership within the coalition. JxC will continue to face challenges related to Macri’s widespread rejection and criticism of his government. Hardliners in JxC will push for a more confrontational stance against the Peronist government, which could backfire.

Regional armies deal blow to Nigeria militants

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
International Aid ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
North East ◽  
The North

Significance Boko Haram has been severely weakened by the regional military offensive underway since February. With some assistance from Nigerian soldiers, troops from Chad, Cameroon and Niger have forced the insurgents to retreat from the majority of areas under their control. Completing the defeat of Boko Haram -- at least as a guerrilla force -- will be one of the incoming administration's first priorities. Impacts The incoming government will seek to fund pledges to accelerate reconstruction and rehabilitation of the north-east. However, it is set to inherit a cash-strapped economy, after one of Nigeria's most expensive elections. As laid out by the respected Borno state governor, substantial international aid assistance will be required. Such reconstruction work will also be important to allow the return of tens of thousands of refugees.

Polls leave room for late election surge in Costa Rica

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Costa Rica ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
National Liberation ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
National Integration ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Citizen Action ◽  
Run Off

Subject Costa Rica election preview. Significance As campaigning enters its final stages ahead of the February 4 presidential and legislative elections, the opposition National Liberation Party (PLN) leads the polls. However, popular frustration with the established political parties has led to a surge in momentum for the National Integration Party (PIN), which looks likely to trigger a second round run-off. Impacts The legislative polls will dictate how much clout the president has in Congress, with no one party looking set for a majority. The incumbent Citizen Action Party (PAC) will perform poorly due to Solis’s perceived ineffectiveness and the ongoing ‘cementazo’ scandal. Renewed infrastructure investment could bring long-term benefits for trade and tourism.

Disenchanted voters tilt strongly right in Brazil

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reforms ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Run Off ◽  
General Elections ◽  
Electoral Performance ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Brazilian Politics

Subject The makeup of the new Congress. Significance The October 7 general elections reconfigured Brazilian politics. On the back of the success of presidential candidate Jair Bolsonaro -- who fell just short of being elected in the first round --- the far right saw its representation expand significantly in a Congress where several established leaders lost seats they had held for decades. Gubernatorial candidates close to Bolsonaro also reached the run-off in key state races. Meanwhile, the traditional centre-right Social Democrats (PSDB) recorded their worst electoral performance since the party's foundation in the late 1980s. Impacts Bolsonaro's economically liberal credentials are unproven. Some of Bolsonaro's allies may oppose key economic reforms. A highly fragmented Congress will make governance challenging over time.

Kidal will be test of the state's return to north Mali

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Far North ◽  
The North ◽  
North Eastern ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military ◽  
Northern City

Subject Kidal's significance. Significance In mid-February, the government deployed 600 soldiers and auxiliary forces to the far north-eastern city of Kidal and 200 more to Timbuktu, another key northern city. There are also plans to deploy troops to Menaka and Taoudenit. All these towns have been under the de facto control of shifting constellations of rebels, former rebels and militias since April 2012. The return of the military as part of a ‘reconstituted army’ consisting of one-third government soldiers, one-third former rebel fighters and one-third government-aligned militia members indicates a softening of tensions. Impacts The Kidal deployment may blunt some Western criticism of the Malian government’s performance. Legislative elections in March and talks with jihadists could yet change political balances in Kidal. Relations between the government and former rebels in the north are better now than in years. The Algiers Accord’s different provisions are so interconnected that the success of any one depends on agreement on multiple other elements.

Disputed Zimbabwe poll will delay re-engagement

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Urban Poor ◽  
Term Limits ◽  
Military Coup ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Finance Minister ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Democratic Change

Significance Mnangagwa narrowly avoided a second-round run-off with 50.8% of the vote, but opposition presidential candidate Nelson Chamisa of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) Alliance has denounced the result as fraudulent. Post-poll violence has resulted in at least six deaths, with evidence mounting of state-sponsored suppression of MDC activists and the urban poor. Impacts Widening military divisions will create risks of regime instability and a potential second military coup. Backroom negotiating on a transitional unity government could intensify, although this may prompt intra-opposition divisions. With a two-thirds parliamentary majority, Mnangagwa could push to abolish term limits but would face sizable opposition from party rivals. Despite failing to be elected to parliament, Finance Minister Patrick Chinamasa may be re-appointed to shore up international support.

Ghana's Akufo-Addo holds poll advantage over old foe

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Rural Women ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
The North ◽  
Run Off ◽  
Volta Region

Significance This is the third time Akufo-Addo and Mahama have faced each other: Akufo-Addo lost to Mahama in 2012 but won in 2016. The appearance of two well-known candidates may contribute to rising voter apathy. Impacts While Akufo-Addo is likely to win a first round, an apparent tightening in the polls means a run-off election cannot be ruled out. The growing social media focus of campaigns will increasingly exclude poorer, more remote voters -- especially rural women in the north. Recent unrest associated with the Western Togoland secession movement in the Volta Region could re-emerge over the short-to-medium term.

Delayed vote raises Nigeria stability risks

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Space ◽  
Electoral Process ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Outward Appearance ◽  
Boko Haram ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
The Postponement

Significance Presidential and parliamentary elections have been rescheduled for March 28, with state and governorship elections due on April 11. Attahiru Jega, the head of the INEC, said that while the commission was fully prepared to conduct the election, last minute warnings from the security and intelligence chiefs stated that electoral security could not be guaranteed given the demand on troops needed to fight the Boko Haram insurgency in the north-east. While constitutional provisions allow for this short-term extension, the reason given for the postponement opens up the prospect for further delay. Impacts A severely flawed electoral process will have a knock-on effect on broader perceptions about Africa's democracy trends. Across the region, the outward appearance of democracy through holding elections rarely indicates free opposition participation. Regional Islamist militancy challenges will continue to be associated with reducing political space, from Chad to Kenya.

Philippines presidential race will be close run

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Liberal Party ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Presidential Candidates

Subject Update on the Philippines 2016 presidential race. Significance October 16 is the candidacy-filing deadline for May 2016's presidential and legislative elections. The three main presidential candidates are Vice President Jejomar Binay for the United Nationalist Alliance, former Interior Secretary Manuel 'Mar' Roxas for the Liberal Party and independent Senator Grace Poe. Minor candidates, who could play spoiler roles in a tight three-way race, have yet to declare. Impacts Binay and Roxas will seek suitable vice-presidential running-mates before time runs out. Local political bosses will be vital to build support blocs for their preferred presidential candidate. Poe's lack of a party machine may be an electoral liability.

Displacement crisis will cloud Burkina Faso’s polls

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Cohesion ◽  
International Community ◽  
Legislative Elections ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cross Border ◽  
The North ◽  
Social Difficulties ◽  
Negative Impacts

Significance Displacement has shot up drastically since early 2019, thanks to insecurity in the north and east of the country, especially. Besides the serious short-term impacts on the economy and the November 22 presidential and legislative elections, the displacement crisis threatens to have long-term negative impacts on social cohesion. Impacts Mass disenfranchisement would undermine the elections and the winner’s legitimacy, increasing protest and coup risks. Curbed cross-border movements due to domestic and neighbouring states' insecurity will raise economic and social difficulties for citizens. Even if broad swathes of voters are disenfranchised, the international community will likely accept the results.

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