Pension reform could derail France’s Macron

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Innovation Fund ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Eu

Subject Macron’s economic reform agenda. Significance President Emmanuel Macron views his reforms through the prism of power: by strengthening the economy, he hopes to win credibility with Germany, whose support he needs to reform the EU and euro-area. However, the apparent ease of his labour regulations reform in September does not diminish the risk of his next two targets: unemployment benefits and pensions. Impacts With a shrinking share of euro-area exports, France will see limited benefit from the stronger global economy. Business confidence may increase if the government eases the regulatory burden on medium-to-large businesses. Financing an innovation fund by selling off some state assets will take time and likely have little impact on confidence.

Politics set to slow Pakistan's divestment drive

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Economic Reform ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Structural Reforms ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Political Patronage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Core Condition

Subject Pakistan's divestment drive. Significance Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif's government describes divestment of public sector enterprises (PSEs), involving 69 firms, as an essential part of its 2013-18 economic reform agenda. Progress thus far is limited, but the government faces rising pressure from the IMF, which made divestment a core condition of its 6.6-billion-dollar, three-year loan in September 2013. Impacts Another government led by Sharif would continue gradual divestments after 2018. Since PSEs are an important vector for distributing political patronage, structural reforms will face stiff resistance. Divestment of profitable PSEs defeats the purpose of the exercise, but the government will use them for a short-term cash boost.

Prior actions passed will unlock Greek bailout cash

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
The Political ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government

Significance This allowed the Eurogroup of euro-area finance ministers to authorise the release of 12 billion euros (12.8 billion dollars) from the latest bailout package of 86 billion -- 2 billion euros to supplement budget needs and 10 billion for bank recapitalisation. Impacts There could be more parliamentary cliff-hangers over approving implementing legislation in such areas as pension reform. The opposition may support the government on some issues, but this could undermine Tsipras's authority. Another election is possible, but might not change the political balance.

Exit talks may not clarify future UK-EU relationship

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Member State ◽  
Supreme Court ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Government ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
Theresa May ◽  
The Eu

Significance Prime Minister Theresa May has committed herself to triggering Article 50 by the end of March 2017. No member state has made use of Article 50 and there is thus much uncertainty about what leaving and, more specifically, triggering Article 50 might involve. Impacts May's timetable could be derailed if the Supreme Court decides that the government cannot invoke Article 50 without parliamentary approval. The EU is likely to maintain its firm stance and refuse to engage in any negotiations before Article 50 is triggered. The continued uncertainty over the terms of Brexit is likely to hit business confidence and could deter investments.

Bavaria’s October poll will be Merkel’s next test

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Back Seat ◽  
The Stability ◽  
The Eu

Significance A compromise was found yesterday, but the stability of the coalition as well as the CDU/CSU partnership are now under question. Impacts The unfolding crisis is benefiting the Greens and the AfD. The euro-area reform agenda will take a back seat at the EU summit, which could help Berlin and Paris reach compromise. The crisis will strengthen the hand of Italy’s new populist government on immigration.

Ethiopia’s homegrown economic reforms face challenges

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Income Country ◽  
Middle Income ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
Low Income Country ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for Ethiopia's economic reform agenda. Significance The government has launched a “Homegrown Economic Reform” agenda, which aims to transform Ethiopia from a largely agrarian low-income country to an industrialised lower-middle-income country by 2030. This will require the private sector to take charge of growth amid waning public sector financing capacity. However, significant economic liberalisation within this timeframe is unrealistic given the entrenched nature of the old command economy. Impacts Ethiopia has overtaken Angola as Sub-Saharan Africa’s third-largest economy but slowing growth could threaten this new status. The large external debt burden and high import content of the new agenda will curb plans to liberalise the exchange rate. Ethio Telecom and Ethiopian Airlines will be the crown jewels among proposed privatisation offerings.

Iran's new parliament will facilitate reform agenda

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Reform ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Foreign Relations ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reform Agenda ◽  
The Government ◽  
International Engagement

Significance The successes of forces supportive of the government and the heavy losses incurred by the government's most vocal conservative opponents represent a strong endorsement of the nuclear deal and signal a comeback for reformist forces following the disputed 2009 presidential election. Impacts Rouhani is highly likely to be re-elected in the 2017 presidential race. Parliament will be much more supportive of implementation of the nuclear agreement and Rouhani's economic reform agenda. This gives Rouhani better prospects of steering the country's economy and foreign relations towards greater international engagement.

Pension plans carry high risks for France’s Macron

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Pension Reform ◽  
Pension Plans ◽  
Fiscal Rules ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Pension Schemes ◽  
Retirement Security ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

Subject Pension reform in France. Significance President Emmanuel Macron’s pension reform plans are designed to combat budget deficits and create more flexibility for people changing jobs. Concerns that future retirees will have reduced pension rights have resulted in strikes and protests throughout France. However, the government remains committed to implementing the reforms. Impacts Spending priorities such as the military and police may suffer if the government is forced to make expensive concessions on pensions. Additional private pension schemes could become more popular as households seek to bolster their retirement security. Budget overruns resulting from the failure to implement reforms would risk compromising euro-area fiscal rules.

The international strength of the euro will grow

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Financial Services ◽  
Raw Materials ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Strategic Autonomy ◽  
Geopolitical Risks ◽  
The Eu

Significance The proposals identified areas where the euro could potentially become more dominant, such as the issuance of green bonds, digital currencies, and international trade in raw materials and energy. Ambitions to enhance the international leverage of the euro are being driven by the aim to strengthen EU strategic autonomy amid rising geopolitical risks. Impacts Developing its digital finance sector would be an opportunity for the EU to enhance its strategic autonomy in financial services. Challenging the US dollar would require the euro-area to rebalance its economy away from foreign to domestic demand. Member state division will prevent the economic reconfiguration the euro-area needed to make the euro a truly global currency.

EU bonds will rival German Bunds as a safe asset

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Euro Area ◽  
Safe Haven ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The World ◽  
The Creation ◽  
Over Time ◽  
The Eu

Significance This could create an alternative benchmark safe-haven asset to rival German Bunds within the region. As part of its issuance plans, the EU intends to issue at least EUR50bn in green bonds annually, which is likely to make it the world’s largest issuer of these bonds. Impacts The increased importance of EU bonds over time will help to support the euro's value and could eventually put pressure on the dollar. The EU is leading the world in green bond issuance, but the risk of spurious environmental claims (‘greenwashing’) must be managed. The creation of new EU bonds will help reduce the funding costs of riskier euro-area members such as Italy.

External factors will prod Russia into climate action

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Forest Fires ◽  
Public Attention ◽  
Export Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Carbon Emissions Trading ◽  
Emissions Trading Scheme ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
The Government ◽  
Trading Scheme ◽  
The Eu

Significance This is still tentative planning but it indicates the Kremlin is being spurred into action by looming curbs on high-carbon products in China and the EU, Russia's key export markets. Russia has so far resisted calls for more ambitious commitments. Impacts Siberian forest fires will focus public attention on the environment, if not global warming. Blame for the wildfires, as with other environmental problems, will be weaponised in elite infighting. The government is interested in developing cheap, green hydrogen. A pilot carbon emissions trading scheme in Sakhalin could be scaled up to other parts of Russia.

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