Bosnia’s general election sets stage for anarchy

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Eu

Subject Bosnia’s election aftermath. Significance Political parties must now start talks to form coalitions at various levels after elections that strengthened hard-line nationalists. A dispute over the Croat seat in the state presidency has deepened the rift between Bosniaks (Bosnian Muslims) and Croats, further complicating government formation. Impacts Lacking its upper parliamentary chamber, the Federation be unable to pass the 2019 budget, signalling the start of institutional collapse. Little may be expected from the EU in the deepening political crisis. Continuing chaos will boost emigration, especially among the young and educated.

Cambodia security forces could be election wildcard

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Political Parties ◽  
The State ◽  
Power Sharing ◽  
General Election ◽  
Internal Security ◽  
Security Forces ◽  
Content Type ◽  
People's Party ◽  
Security Personnel

Subject Elections and security. Significance The interior minister has ordered security personnel to assure “equal security to all political parties” contesting the June 4 commune council elections. Yet this follows remarks by other officials that “war” will occur if the governing Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) loses these or the 2018 general election, and promising a crackdown if the opposition does not respect either election’s result and undertakes violent street protests. Cambodia’s security forces will be central to election security, to any crackdown and to the post-election period. However, concerns have been raised about their relationship with the state. Impacts Using the security forces to perpetuate CPP rule could undermine Cambodia’s democratisation. However, renewed CPP government would assure internal security, aiding economic growth and investment. If the CNRP wins in 2018, the CPP would likely demand a power-sharing agreement rather than leave office.

Creeping authoritarianism is a real risk in Tunisia

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Risk ◽  
Chief Prosecutor ◽  
Moderating Role ◽  
The Eu

Significance He did not name a new prime minister. Over July 25-26, Saied dismissed Prime Minister Hicham Mechichi, dissolved his government, suspended parliament for 30 days, lifted parliamentary immunity and declared himself chief prosecutor, triggering Tunisia’s worst political crisis in a decade. Impacts The Ennahda party could be persecuted once again, this time on corruption charges, as the reconciliation offered excludes its members. Tunisia may become a new ideological battleground, pitting Turkey and Qatar against the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The EU, the United States and Algeria have some influence on Tunisia and could perhaps play a moderating role.

Next Dutch government will likely be ‘greener’

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Government Policy ◽  
Nuclear Energy ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Dutch Government ◽  
Far Right ◽  
Government Formation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Climate Targets ◽  
A Priority ◽  
The Eu

Significance Government formation should have been relatively straightforward but a series of political controversies have damaged VVD leader and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s credibility with the CU and some opposition parties. Impacts The collective rise of the far-right vote means the far right will continue to worry centrist parties and thus influence government policy. Investment in nuclear energy to meet climate targets is unlikely to be a priority for the new government. Dutch influence in the EU could grow with the departure of Merkel in September, and Macron’s focus on the 2022 election.

Brexit increases trade uncertainties in Brazil

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Trade Agreement ◽  
Import Demand ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Political Crisis ◽  
Currency Markets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Near Term ◽  
Severe Recession ◽  
The Eu

Subject Brexit's impact on Brazil's trade outlook. Significance The process of UK withdrawal from the EU (Brexit) will produce complex, uncertain and far-reaching economic effects. Brazil faces Brexit while undergoing a severe recession and profound political crisis. Trade has offered the only positive economic news in Brazil during 2016, owing largely to currency depreciation and depressed import demand. Impacts If Brexit reinforces the decline in Chinese growth, this will have a negative impact on Brazil's exports. Crucially, it is also likely to delay the conclusion of the free trade agreement between the EU and Mercosur. Near-term, Brexit represents an additional source of uncertainty, with increased instability in financial and currency markets.

Raising its Balkan profile will cost Russia little

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Domestic Politics ◽  
Security Architecture ◽  
Western Balkans ◽  
The West ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Balkans ◽  
The Eu

Subject Russia's contacts with Balkans political parties. Significance For Moscow, connections with Balkan parties are an instrument to exert influence in a region falling within the West's sphere. The declaration the ruling United Russia party signed with parties from Serbia, Bosnia-Hercegovina (BiH), Macedonia and Bulgaria on June 27 called for military neutrality in a Balkan zone of neutral sovereign states within a new pan-European continental security architecture that would exclude NATO membership and hark back to the Yugoslav policy of non-alignment. Impacts Russia will balance NATO expansion into the Western Balkans with initiatives to increase its influence in the region's domestic politics. Moscow will tacitly accept the Balkans' integration into the EU. Russia will seek to diversify alliances, cooperating with both mainstream pragmatists and radicals calling for a turn away from the West.

Snap election may not end Austrian government crisis

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Critical Line ◽  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Party Leader ◽  
Parliamentary Election ◽  
Social Democrats ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vice Chancellor ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Eu

Significance This comes after the sudden resignation of Vice Chancellor Reinhold Mitterlehner as head of the OeVP, announced on May 10, precipitated a government crisis. His successor as party leader, 30-year-old Foreign Minister Sebastian Kurz, two days later unilaterally declared the collapse of the grand coalition with the Social Democrats (SPOe) live on television, demanding a snap parliamentary election. Impacts Kurz is likely to represent a more critical line on the EU, pushing for reforms. Bad blood between the SPOe and the OeVP could open the door for a coalition with the FPOe even if it incurs losses. As in France, there is a trend towards personality politics in a country where political parties have traditionally been dominant.

Extending Brexit may be needed despite EU deal hopes

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United Kingdom ◽  
Transition Period ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Political Opinion ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Article 50 ◽  
The Eu

Subject Final stages of Brexit negotiations. Significance There has been much talk of the possibility of extending the Article 50 process to allow more time for further negotiations, and possibly a second referendum or a general election. With under 150 days to go until the United Kingdom is due to leave the EU, there is much debate about the circumstances under which a delay might be required and, if so, how it could be achieved. Impacts A new government may use an extended transition period to change or prevent Brexit. Calls of a second referendum will deeply polarise UK political opinion. The EU could decide to block an extension to the transition, heightening fears of a no-deal Brexit.

Bosnia's paralysed institutions add to sense of chaos

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
State Level ◽  
The State ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
State Budget ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Eu ◽  
Level Government ◽  
Political Disputes

Significance Intensified political disputes between the main parties are holding up the state budget for 2020, including funding for local elections in November. They also threaten to weaken the response to the looming socio-economic crisis from the COVID-19 pandemic. Impacts The US entry ban on former senior SDA member Amir Zukic is seen as an attempt to persuade the party to behave more responsibly. The EU is in a contest with China, Russia and Turkey to retain influence in the region. Pre-election positioning may explain the defection of Fahrudin Radoncic’s Union for a Better Future party from the state-level government.

Myanmar armed groups eye leverage through 2020 poll

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Peace Process ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Armed Groups ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Ethnic Parties ◽  
National League ◽  
Step Down ◽  
The Government

Subject Situation regarding Myanmar's ethnic armed organisations. Significance The government and military in Myanmar and leaders of ten ethnically based guerrilla groups that have signed the Nationwide Ceasefire Agreement (NCA) last week pledged to step up their commitment to the peace process, to transform the NCA into a lasting settlement. Several other armed groups are still in conflict with the state, notwithstanding occasional ceasefires. State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi’s National League for Democracy (NLD) will very likely retain control over the civilian part of government following this year’s general election, but ethnic parties will probably make parliamentary gains at its expense. Impacts Suu Kyi is very unlikely to face pressure to step down even if the NLD’s parliamentary majority is heavily reduced. Even with increased seat share in parliament, ethnic parties will struggle to influence policy. China and India will double down on their support for the Myanmar military.

Zambia leader's narrow win portends populist shift

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Government Spending ◽  
National Development ◽  
The State ◽  
General Election ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
Vote Count ◽  
Public Sector Unions

Significance The main opposition party, the United Party for National Development (UPND), immediately rejected the official victory declaration, counting irregularities. No evidence was offered to support this allegation, but counting delays, the result's closeness and claims that a parallel vote count has Lungu losing could undermine the government's legitimacy. Impacts The expectation that the 2017 general election is likely to be close will encourage the PF to raise government spending. Slumping copper prices cutting government revenues could necessitate further borrowing -- contravening IMF recommendations. Public sector unions are likely to use the post-election period to demand an end to the state wage freeze in place for 2014-15.

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