Vote narratives have no lasting relevance for Russians

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Political Uncertainty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Early Voting ◽  
The Right ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Election Commission ◽  
Do So

Significance The changes enable Vladimir Putin to run for the presidency again in 2024 and 2030, despite his repeated promises not to do so. As the authorities went all-out to secure the right result, the early voting process was less than transparent and there were numerous reports of abuses and fraud on the day. Impacts The key short-term factor for political uncertainty is the duration of the COVID-19 crisis. The Kremlin has deflected blame from itself so far but a deepening health crisis could make this unsustainable. Following claims of vote-rigging, election commission chief Ella Pamfilova may be sacrificed ahead of the parliamentary elections.

Deby’s control of Chad looks unlikely to be shaken

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Vice President ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Humanitarian Emergencies ◽  
Border Regions ◽  
The Past ◽  
Security Challenges ◽  
The Family ◽  
Military Posts

Significance The presidential election will take place on April 11 and parliamentary elections are scheduled for October. As the country prepares for the polls, security challenges and humanitarian emergencies are unfolding in various parts of the country, especially in remote and border regions. Impacts The designation of a vice-president could shift balances of power within the family network that dominates top political and military posts. Western powers and other African states are likely to accept even a highly flawed election, as they have in the past. Further protests may occur, but Deby appears less vulnerable in the short-term than Malian President Ibrahim Keita proved in 2020.

Debt crisis will delay Zimbabwe economic recovery

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Vice President ◽  
Debt Financing ◽  
Illegal Immigrants ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Remittance Flows ◽  
Do So

Subject Outlook for Zimbabwe's sovereign debt. Significance Secretary to the Treasury Willard Manungo earlier this month revealed that the government owes its diplomats 10 million dollars in salary arrears. It is the latest development in Zimbabwe's fiscal crunch, worsened by President Robert Mugabe's government's limited access to debt financing. This is forcing it to pursue complex, simultaneous negotiations with multiple creditors. Impacts Limited financing will hurt government plans to import 700,000 tonnes of maize necessary to address drought-induced shortfalls. South Africa's restrictive visa regime and clampdowns on illegal immigrants could begin to hurt remittance flows to Zimbabwe. Former Vice-President Joice Mujuru is unlikely to announce a new party in the short term, but may do so before polls in 2018.

Croatia's political weaknesses will slow growth

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Model ◽  
Slow Growth ◽  
Economic Convergence ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Third ◽  
Business Confidence ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Eu

Significance Inflation seems to have returned to the economy following three years of near-continual deflation. After years in the doldrums, the Croatian economy is finally experiencing respectable growth and various indicators are now pointing in the right direction. However, the recovery is based on short-term factors that cannot easily be sustained, and the foundations of the economy remain weak. Impacts The current spate of growth is helping to prop up a weak government and a socio-economic model to which many Croats are averse. Respectable growth has lifted business confidence in the third quarter to its highest level since 2009. Apparent economic convergence with the rest of the EU is reviving the question whether and when Croatia should adopt the euro.

The Swedish government is likely to win September vote

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Law And Order ◽  
Consumer Spending ◽  
Government Investment ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Eu Integration ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Minority Government ◽  
The Right

Subject Sweden's 2018 budget. Significance The minority government presented its last budget before the September 9 parliamentary elections earlier this month. The budget and its implementation are the government's last chance to emphasise its policy priorities, address problems and appeal to voters at a time when the main opposition party, the Moderates, is recovering in the polls. Impacts The expansive 2018 budget will support economic growth by boosting government investment and consumer spending. The salience of immigration and law and order means policies in these areas are likely to shift to the right after the election. A centre-right government supported by the Sweden Democrats would adopt a more cautious approach to EU integration. The next government will have to build new alliances to offset the loss of the United Kingdom as a key EU ally after Brexit.

South African lockdown easing will only do so much

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South African ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
Do So ◽  
Alcohol Sales

Significance President Cyril Ramaphosa, who had been under escalating pressure from business and organised labour to reopen the economy fully, justified the relaxation by citing reductions in new case figures. There are indications that all provinces may have reached their peak of infections by end-July. Impacts Despite the scale of the crisis, the government appears still to lack urgency in formulating a substantive economic response. Government's withdrawal of an appeal to a 2018 declaratory order will raise hopes for greater flexibility with miners in the short term. Lockdown-related drops in reported crimes will likely prove short-lived, given renewed alcohol sales, growing joblessness and hardship.

Mexico-US relations to remain challenging under Biden

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Minister ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Bilateral Relationship ◽  
Election Fraud ◽  
Democratic Norms ◽  
Do So

Significance Arguing that to do so before the result becomes official on December 14 would be premature, AMLO has rejected claims that his silence is tantamount to endorsing President Donald Trump’s allegations of election fraud and that it could sour relations with the incoming administration. Impacts Biden’s presidency will be broadly welcomed in Mexico, with less hostile rhetoric facilitating friendly relations. The need to control the spread of COVID-19 will define some elements of the bilateral relationship in the short term. Foreign Minister Marcelo Ebrard will continue to lead the bilateral relationship, while AMLO maintains his focus on domestic matters. Tensions may rise as the 2021 elections near, if AMLO is viewed by Washington as undermining democratic norms.

Suga will hold Japan steady in short term only

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Foreign Policy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Initiatives ◽  
Public Health Crisis ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Presidential Election

Significance He leaves office having failed to achieve his ambition to reform Japan’s constitution, and is widely seen as having mismanaged the most serious public health crisis in decades. Impacts New foreign policy initiatives are unlikely until after the US presidential election. Abe could make a decision before leaving office on whether Japan should acquire pre-emptive strike capabilities. No moves on constitution revision are likely for the next twelve months at least. Japan would be at a disadvantage if a foreign policy crisis were to occur in the next twelve months, and the next few weeks in particular. Whether the Olympics next summer go well will have some influence on whether Suga stays on as leader.

Further devaluation of Nigeria’s naira is likely

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Do So

Significance This is the second devaluation of the naira in less than six months on the official foreign exchange (forex) market. The CBN has previously staved off a devaluation despite the economic pressures to do so, using policies such as restricting official forex to certain items for import. Impacts The devaluation will further increase inflationary pressures that have been rising since the closure of Nigeria’s land borders last year. The devaluation increases the likelihood of the official NGN/USD rate heading towards 500:1 over the short term. Pressure from state governors over revenue shortfalls and bureaucratic costs also likely played a factor in the most recent devaluation.

Multipartner military exercises may become flashpoints

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Changes ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Past ◽  
External Threats ◽  
Military Exercises ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
Do So

Significance The exercise was described by NATO as a "show of force", while the Dutch foreign minister referred to it as "a warning" to Russian President Vladimir Putin. Multinational military exercises have become more frequent over the past 25 years. The United States participates in dozens of exercises annually and spends billions of dollars to do so. However, there are significant questions over the utility and purpose of such multinational exercises, which serve both a practical function for the militaries involved, as well as a diplomatic signaling effect. Impacts Like BALTOPS, regular exercises will assume greater salience when their regional focus sees new external threats. This could prompt policy changes from adversaries, as they attempt to respond to the exercises. As a result, exercises designed to deter may risk escalating tensions.

Prospects for Russian politics in 2017

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Content Type ◽  
Parliamentary Elections ◽  
Russian Politics ◽  
Vladimir Putin ◽  
At Home

Subject Prospects for Russian politics in 2017 Significance The authority of President Vladimir Putin was tested at home and abroad in 2016. While the economy continued to struggle, he enjoyed successes with the parliamentary elections and his robust interventionism in Syria, where Russia established itself as the key external player. His success abroad has bolstered his domestic popularity.

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