Alberta's economic woes have political consequences

Significance With steep reductions in public spending affecting education and social programmes, the budget signals an era of austerity in what had been Canada’s wealthiest province. One consequence is likely to be greater tension between the provincial government and the federal government in Ottawa. Impacts Major international funds will continue to divest from the oil sands sector, further depressing output as subsidies are cut. Remaining oil sands production will be increasingly automated, meaning that structural unemployment will persist. Ottawa’s refusal to contest US cancellation of the Keystone XL pipeline has raised tensions with the UCP government in Edmonton. The national broad-based economic recovery expected this year will largely bypass Alberta.

Significance A three-year budget cycle is intended to create predictability after a year in which the initial budget had to be revised as the oil price outlook grew gloomier. Spending cuts are envisaged to continue beyond 2017 as revenue predictions are modest amid low rates of economic growth, and the objective is to cut the budget deficit progressively. Impacts The diversion of reserve money to sustain public spending will undermine economic modernisation programmes. Low levels of health and education spending will harm human capital in the medium-to-long term. The Central Bank is unlikely to relax monetary policies significantly prior to 2018, and then only if inflation recedes to the targeted 4%. Tight monetary policy will restrict credit growth and thus economic recovery.


Subject The economic outlook for Iraq’s Kurdish region. Significance The Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) has seen a limited economic recovery over the past year. It suffered catastrophically following the central government's imposition of sanctions following the region’s abortive 2017 independence bid. Impacts A likely larger federal government allocation to the KRI in the 2019/20 budget will facilitate economic recovery. Increased US pressure to boost Iraqi oil exports to Turkey will increase local government revenues. As both local and federal government revenues depend on oil, falling prices would cause another contraction.


Subject Potentially interesting IPOs in Kazakhstan. Significance On November 24, Kazakhstani Deputy Foreign Minister Alexey Volkov said that a new round of large-scale privatisations would help stimulate the development of the private sector. Given that the price of oil is likely to stay low for some time, optimisation of public spending is a key priority for Astana. The government's planned exit from state-owned enterprises should also bolster the latter's management and profitability. Impacts The privatisation programme may enable the government to refocus efforts on economic recovery. Corruption will remain a principal obstacle to the successful implementation of privatisation plans. Proximity to political influencers will be a valuable asset for foreign investors keen to partake in the privatisation drive.


Significance Public finances have not so far deteriorated as dramatically as they might have done, considering the economic contraction caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. This is explained partly by public spending cuts and one-off revenues that will not be repeated next year. Impacts Fiscal orthodoxy will not be rewarded by international capital markets, as anti-investment moves have hit confidence. Perceptions of country risk will continue to worsen, pushing up the cost of refinancing public debt. A slow post-pandemic economic recovery and lingering unemployment could weigh on the government’s popularity.


Significance Some of Canada’s largest provincial governments have seen their approval ratings fall in the wake of the third wave, although there has been little impact on the Liberal government in Ottawa. The political consequences will remain significant in the coming months. Impacts Changes in government could see all provinces except Saskatchewan have a carbon tax in place by 2023. Manitoba could see the election of Wab Kinew as Canada’s first Indigenous provincial premier if current trends continue. Universal pharmacare is off the table for now, as Ottawa and provinces seek to woo back pharmaceutical investment. A return to power of the NDP in Alberta would see several significant mining and oil sands projects cancelled.


2016 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 770-786 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chunkui Zhu ◽  
Chen Wu

Purpose This paper aims to examine different hypotheses concerning the effects of public service motivation (PSM) and other attitudinal or institutional dimensions on organizational performance (OP). Specifically, based on the experience of Chinese provincial governments, this study provides new evidence about how PSM may affect OP. Design/methodology/approach This study collected data from a survey of different provincial government departments in Sichuan Province, Hubei Province, Hunan Province and Chongqing Municipality in 2011. Using data from 761 respondents, Pearson correlation analysis and regression analysis were used to explore the relationships between related factors. Findings PSM, job satisfaction, affective commitment and job involvement have statistically significant effects on OP, and these results are consistent with the findings of previous researches that PSM positively affected OP at a significant level. The results suggest that, if civil servants have a strong PSM, the performance of their organizations will be high. Research limitations/implications Future research should look for additional factors that affect OP, comparing employees’ perceptions of an organization’s performance with objective data to determine whether, and to what degree, subjective measures of performance are valid measures of OP in the public sector. Practical implications In the process of improving government performance, it is significant to give attention to the government employees’ mentality. The government training and promotion system should encourage civil servants to care about the public interest. A more flattened organization should be considered as part of the next steps in government reform, and more opportunities should be provided to involve more government employees in policy making. Originality/value This study helps to clarify the effects of individual factors of PSM on OP in China in a tightly controlled bureaucratic environment, where related data are hardly accessible.


2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 215-230 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Young ◽  
Raymond Young ◽  
Julio Romero Zapata

Purpose – This paper aims to examine the notion of maturity assessment and maturity models more broadly and goes on to examine the findings from the assessments of project, programme and portfolio maturity undertaken across Australian Government agencies. Design/methodology/approach – A statistical analysis was performed to determine the level of maturity that best represents the Australian Federal Government agencies as a whole. The unit of analysis in this study is the agencies overall scores in each sub-model across the seven perspectives of the portfolio, programme and project management maturity model (P3M3) maturity model. Findings – This study has identified a number of interesting findings. First, the practices of project, programme and portfolio across the dataset practiced independently of each other. Second, benefits management and strategy alignment practices are generally poor across Australian Government agencies. Third, programme management practices are the most immature. Finally, the results showed a high sensitivity to the “generic attributes” of roles and responsibilities, experience, capability development, planning and estimating and scrutiny and review. Research limitations/implications – All data used in this analysis are secondary data collected from individual Australian Government agencies. The data were collected by accredited consultants following a common data collection method and using a standard template to ensure a consistent approach. Practical implications – The study poses some implications for practice, particularly given the context of Australian Federal Government agencies current plans and action to improve organisational maturity. The study suggests that benefits management processes at the project level and benefits management, governance and stakeholder management processes at the programme level should be an area of focus for improvement. Originality/value – This study is the first attempt to systematically review the data collected through such an assessment and in particular identify the findings and the implications at a whole of government level.


Significance The three parties successfully negotiated a coalition agreement with a strong emphasis on modernising Germany’s economy. Throughout the negotiations, the parties presented a public image of stability and harmony, yet several divisive issues will test the new government's stability and effectiveness. Impacts The composition of the new government will make it harder for Berlin to win approval for the EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz will seek to prioritise more unity at the EU level when it comes to foreign policy decision-making. The spread of the Omicron variant will slow economic recovery and potentially delay the transition to a greener economy.


Significance Canada’s Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is preparing to welcome a more predictable and stable partner in Biden than outgoing Republican President Donald Trump. However, Biden is also expected quickly to cancel the Keystone XL pipeline, cutting another lifeline to Canada’s oil industry and creating some strain in Canada-US ties. Impacts Improved Canada-US ties will persist even if Trudeau loses the next federal election to Conservative Erin O’Toole. Canada will re-engage militarily with UN peacekeeping and NATO deployments. Trudeau will encourage Biden to end US prosecution of Meng Wanzhou, allowing Canada to release her; Biden may agree. Canada’s border with the United States will open in stages as COVID-19 recedes. Ottawa will push Biden to end ‘Buy American’ procurement policies, with little success.


Subject Prospects for Turkey to end-2021. Significance Deepening popular discontent, a growing opposition bloc and internal rivalries have put the ruling coalition on the back foot for the first time, but also made it more unpredictable. The economic recovery has continued, notwithstanding policy tightening, but the lira has been weak and inflation high. Unemployment is a significant concern.


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