scholarly journals Early mortality and freshwater forage fish recruitment: nonnative alewife and native rainbow smelt interactions in Lake Champlain

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (5) ◽  
pp. 806-814
Author(s):  
Paul W. Simonin ◽  
Lars G. Rudstam ◽  
Patrick J. Sullivan ◽  
Donna L. Parrish ◽  
Bernard Pientka
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Early Mortality ◽  
Fish Distribution ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Lake Champlain ◽  
Species Introduction ◽  
Rainbow Smelt ◽  
Fish Recruitment

We studied the consequences of a nonnative species introduction and changes in temperature on early mortality and recruitment of native rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and nonnative alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) in Lake Champlain using a simulation model. Distribution patterns of adults and young-of-the-year (YOY) fish were predicted using a model based on observed distribution of different age groups as a function of temperature and light profiles simulated on a daily basis. Mortality rates averaged over the growing season were calculated as a function of fish densities and overlap between adults and YOY. Survival of YOY rainbow smelt and alewife depended on which predator was most abundant. Rainbow smelt YOY mortality rates are highest when rainbow smelt adults are abundant, and alewife YOY mortality rates are highest when alewife adults are abundant, potentially allowing coexistence. August and September mortality rates were higher in the climate change scenario because of increased overlap of adults and YOY of both species. These results indicate that accounting for spatiotemporal fish distribution patterns can be important when forecasting the interacting effects of climate change and aquatic invasive species on fish recruitment.

scholarly journals Predicting Suitable Environments and Potential Occurrences for Cinnamomum camphora (Linn.) Presl.

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1126
Author(s):  
Jiasong Meng ◽  
Miao Li ◽  
Jinhui Guo ◽  
Daqiu Zhao ◽  
Jun Tao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Eastern China ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Distribution Patterns ◽  
Distribution Model ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Cinnamomum Camphora ◽  
Factors Influencing

Global climate change has created a major threat to biodiversity. However, little is known about the habitat and distribution characteristics of Cinnamomum camphora (Linn.) Presl., an evergreen tree growing in tropical and subtropical Asia, as well as the factors influencing its distribution. The present study employed Maxent and a GARP to establish a potential distribution model for the target species based on 182 known occurrence sites and 17 environmental variables. The results indicate that Maxent performed better than GARP. The mean diurnal temperature range, annual precipitation, mean air temperature of driest quarter and sunshine duration in growing season were important environmental factors influencing the distribution of C. camphora and contributed 40.9%, 23.0%, 10.5%, and 7.2% to the variation in the model contribution, respectively. Based on the models, the subtropical and temperate regions of Eastern China, where the species has been recorded, had a high suitability for this species. Under each climate change scenario, the potential geographical distribution shifted farther north and toward a higher elevation. The predicted spatial and temporal distribution patterns of this species can provide guidance for the development strategies for forest management and species protection.

scholarly journals Simulating Agroforestry Adoption in Rural Indonesia: The Potential of Trees on Farms for Livelihoods and Environment

Land ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 385
Author(s):  
Beatrice Nöldeke ◽  
Etti Winter ◽  
Yves Laumonier ◽  
Trifosa Simamora
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Agroforestry System ◽  
Environmental Benefits ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Trees On Farms ◽  
Agroforestry Adoption ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
Small Scale Farmers

In recent years, agroforestry has gained increasing attention as an option to simultaneously alleviate poverty, provide ecological benefits, and mitigate climate change. The present study simulates small-scale farmers’ agroforestry adoption decisions to investigate the consequences for livelihoods and the environment over time. To explore the interdependencies between agroforestry adoption, livelihoods, and the environment, an agent-based model adjusted to a case study area in rural Indonesia was implemented. Thereby, the model compares different scenarios, including a climate change scenario. The agroforestry system under investigation consists of an illipe (Shorea stenoptera) rubber (Hevea brasiliensis) mix, which are both locally valued tree species. The simulations reveal that farmers who adopt agroforestry diversify their livelihood portfolio while increasing income. Additionally, the model predicts environmental benefits: enhanced biodiversity and higher carbon sequestration in the landscape. The benefits of agroforestry for livelihoods and nature gain particular importance in the climate change scenario. The results therefore provide policy-makers and practitioners with insights into the dynamic economic and environmental advantages of promoting agroforestry.

scholarly journals Modelling of the Discharge Response to Climate Change under RCP8.5 Scenario in the Alata River Basin (Mersin, SE Turkey)

Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (4) ◽  
pp. 483
Author(s):  
Ümit Yıldırım ◽  
Cüneyt Güler ◽  
Barış Önol ◽  
Michael Rode ◽  
Seifeddine Jomaa
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Distributed Process ◽  
In The Beginning ◽  
Se Turkey

This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the hydrological response of a Mediterranean mesoscale catchment using a hydrological model. The effect of climate change on the discharge of the Alata River Basin in Mersin province (Turkey) was assessed under the worst-case climate change scenario (i.e., RCP8.5), using the semi-distributed, process-based hydrological model Hydrological Predictions for the Environment (HYPE). First, the model was evaluated temporally and spatially and has been shown to reproduce the measured discharge consistently. Second, the discharge was predicted under climate projections in three distinct future periods (i.e., 2021–2040, 2046–2065 and 2081–2100, reflecting the beginning, middle and end of the century, respectively). Climate change projections showed that the annual mean temperature in the Alata River Basin rises for the beginning, middle and end of the century, with about 1.35, 2.13 and 4.11 °C, respectively. Besides, the highest discharge timing seems to occur one month earlier (February instead of March) compared to the baseline period (2000–2011) in the beginning and middle of the century. The results show a decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature in all future projections, resulting in more snowmelt and higher discharge generation in the beginning and middle of the century scenarios. However, at the end of the century, the discharge significantly decreased due to increased evapotranspiration and reduced snow depth in the upstream area. The findings of this study can help develop efficient climate change adaptation options in the Levant’s coastal areas.

scholarly journals Morphodynamic Controls for Growth and Evolution of a Rubble Coral Island

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (8) ◽  
pp. 1582
Author(s):  
Lara Talavera ◽  
Ana Vila-Concejo ◽  
Jody M. Webster ◽  
Courtney Smith ◽  
Stephanie Duce ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Small Island ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Remotely Sensed Data ◽  
Island Growth ◽  
Wave Interactions ◽  
Tree Island ◽  
Coral Island ◽  
Alongshore Sediment Transport

Rubble islands are dynamic sedimentary features present on reef platforms that evolve under a variety of morphodynamic processes and controlling mechanisms. They provide valuable inhabitable land for small island nations, critical habitat for numerous species, and are threatened by climate change. Aiming to investigate the controlling mechanisms dictating the evolution of One Tree Island (OTI), a rubble island in the Southern Great Barrier Reef, we combined different remotely-sensed data across varying timescales with wave data extracted from satellite altimetry and cyclone activity. Our findings show that (1) OTI had expanded by 7% between 1978 and 2019, (2) significant gross planform decadal adjustments were governed by the amount, intensity, proximity, and relative position of cyclones as well as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, and (3) the mechanisms of island growth involve rubble spits delivering and redistributing rubble to the island through alongshore sediment transport and wave overtopping. Frequent short-term monitoring of the island and further research coupling variations in the different factors driving island change (i.e., sediment availability, reef-wave interactions, and extreme events) are needed to shed light on the future trajectory of OTI and other rubble islands under a climate change scenario.

scholarly journals Debris Flows Occurrence in the Semiarid Central Andes under Climate Change Scenario

Geosciences ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 43
Author(s):  
Stella M. Moreiras ◽  
Sergio A. Sepúlveda ◽  
Mariana Correas-González ◽  
Carolina Lauro ◽  
Iván Vergara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Debris Flows ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Urban Expansion ◽  
Central Andes ◽  
Semiarid Region ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Negative Impacts

This review paper compiles research related to debris flows and hyperconcentrated flows in the central Andes (30°–33° S), updating the knowledge of these phenomena in this semiarid region. Continuous records of these phenomena are lacking through the Andean region; intense precipitations, sudden snowmelt, increased temperatures on high relief mountain areas, and permafrost degradation are related to violent flow discharges. Documented catastrophic consequences related to these geoclimatic events highlight the need to improve their understanding in order to prepare the Andean communities for this latent danger. An amplified impact is expected not only due to environmental changes potentially linked to climate change but also due to rising exposure linked to urban expansion toward more susceptible or unstable areas. This review highlights as well the need for the implementation of preventive measures to reduce the negative impacts and vulnerability of the Andean communities in the global warming context.

scholarly journals Shared socioeconomic pathways for climate change research in Finland: co-developing extended SSP narratives for agriculture

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heikki S. Lehtonen ◽  
Jyrki Aakkula ◽  
Stefan Fronzek ◽  
Janne Helin ◽  
Mikael Hildén ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
National Level ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Food And Agriculture ◽  
Agriculture And Food ◽  
Farm Subsidies

AbstractShared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), developed at global scale, comprise narrative descriptions and quantifications of future world developments that are intended for climate change scenario analysis. However, their extension to national and regional scales can be challenging. Here, we present SSP narratives co-developed with stakeholders for the agriculture and food sector in Finland. These are derived from intensive discussions at a workshop attended by approximately 39 participants offering a range of sectoral perspectives. Using general background descriptions of the SSPs for Europe, facilitated discussions were held in parallel for each of four SSPs reflecting very different contexts for the development of the sector up to 2050 and beyond. Discussions focused on five themes from the perspectives of consumers, producers and policy-makers, included a joint final session and allowed for post-workshop feedback. Results reflect careful sector-based, national-level interpretations of the global SSPs from which we have constructed consensus narratives. Our results also show important critical remarks and minority viewpoints. Interesting features of the Finnish narratives compared to the global SSP narratives include greater emphasis on environmental quality; significant land abandonment in SSPs with reduced livestock production and increased plant-based diets; continued need for some farm subsidies across all SSPs and opportunities for diversifying domestic production under scenarios of restricted trade. Our results can contribute to the development of more detailed national long-term scenarios for food and agriculture that are both relevant for local stakeholders and researchers as well as being consistent with global scenarios being applied internationally.

scholarly journals Evolution of Burned Area in Forest Fires under Climate Change Conditions in Southern Spain Using ANN

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (19) ◽  
pp. 4155
Author(s):  
Pérez-Sánchez ◽  
Jimeno-Sáez ◽  
Senent-Aparicio ◽  
Díaz-Palmero ◽  
de Dios Cabezas-Cerezo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Southern Spain ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Absolute Deviation ◽  
Average Temperature ◽  
Mediterranean Regions ◽  
Artificial Neural Network Ann ◽  
Absolute Percent Error

Wildfires in Mediterranean regions have become a serious problem, and it is currently the main cause of forest loss. Numerous prediction methods have been applied worldwide to estimate future fire activity and area burned in order to provide a stable basis for future allocation of fire-fighting resources. The present study investigated the performance of an artificial neural network (ANN) in burned area size prediction and to assess the evolution of future wildfires and the area concerned under climate change in southern Spain. The study area comprised 39.41 km2 of land burned from 2000 to 2014. ANNs were used in two subsequential phases: classifying the size of the wildfires and predicting the burned surface for fires larger than 30,000 m2. Matrix of confusion and 10-fold cross-validations were used to evaluate ANN classification and mean absolute deviation, root mean square error, mean absolute percent error and bias, which were the metrics used for burned area prediction. The success rate achieved was above 60–70% depending on the zone. An average temperature increase of 3 °C and a 20% increase in wind speed during 2071–2100 results in a significant increase of the number of fires, up to triple the current figure, resulting in seven times the average yearly burned surface depending on the zone and the climate change scenario.

scholarly journals The Wet and Dry Spells across India during 1951–2007

2010 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 26-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nityanand Singh ◽  
Ashwini Ranade
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Total Duration ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Monsoon Period ◽  
Northwestern India ◽  
Area Of Interest ◽  
Dry Spells

Abstract Characteristics of wet spells (WSs) and intervening dry spells (DSs) are extremely useful for water-related sectors. The information takes on greater significance in the wake of global climate change and climate-change scenario projections. The features of 40 parameters of the rainfall time distribution as well as their extremes have been studied for two wet and dry spells for 19 subregions across India using gridded daily rainfall available on 1° latitude × 1° longitude spatial resolution for the period 1951–2007. In a low-frequency-mode, intra-annual rainfall variation, WS (DS) is identified as a “continuous period with daily rainfall equal to or greater than (less than) daily mean rainfall (DMR) of climatological monsoon period over the area of interest.” The DMR shows significant spatial variation from 2.6 mm day−1 over the extreme southeast peninsula (ESEP) to 20.2 mm day−1 over the southern-central west coast (SCWC). Climatologically, the number of WSs (DSs) decreases from 11 (10) over the extreme south peninsula to 4 (3) over northwestern India as a result of a decrease in tropical and oceanic influences. The total duration of WSs (DSs) decreases from 101 (173) to 45 (29) days, and the duration of individual WS (DS) from 12 (18) to 7 (11) days following similar spatial patterns. Broadly, the total rainfall of wet and dry spells, and rainfall amount and rainfall intensity of actual and extreme wet and dry spells, are high over orographic regions and low over the peninsula, Indo-Gangetic plains, and northwest dry province. The rainfall due to WSs (DSs) contributes ∼68% (∼17%) to the respective annual total. The start of the first wet spell is earlier (19 March) over ESEP and later (22 June) over northwestern India, and the end of the last wet spell occurs in reverse, that is, earlier (12 September) from northwestern India and later (16 December) from ESEP. In recent years/decades, actual and extreme WSs are slightly shorter and their rainfall intensity higher over a majority of the subregions, whereas actual and extreme DSs are slightly (not significantly) longer and their rainfall intensity weaker. There is a tendency for the first WS to start approximately six days earlier across the country and the last WS to end approximately two days earlier, giving rise to longer duration of rainfall activities by approximately four days. However, a spatially coherent, robust, long-term trend (1951–2007) is not seen in any of the 40 WS/DS parameters examined in the present study.

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