An empirically based simulation model to inform flow management for endangered species conservation

Author(s):  
Timothy E. Walsworth ◽  
Phaedra Budy

Increasing water demand, water development, and on-going climate change have driven extensive changes to the hydrology, geomorphology and biology of arid-land rivers globally, driving an increasing need to understand how annual hydrologic conditions affect the distribution and abundance of imperiled desert fish populations. We analyzed the relationship between annual hydrologic conditions and the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow in the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico, USA, using hurdle models to predict both presence and density as a function of integrated annual hydrologic metrics. Both presence and density were positively related to spring high flow magnitude and duration and negatively related to summer drying, as indicated by an integrated flow metric. Simulations suggest hydrologic conditions near the wettest observed in the data set would be required to meet recovery goals in a single year in all reaches. We demonstrate how the models developed herein can be used to examine alternative water management strategies, including strategies that may currently be socially and logistically infeasible to implement, to identify strategies minimizing trade-offs between conservation and other management goals.

1951 ◽  
Vol 17 (1Part1) ◽  
pp. 41-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank C. Hibben

The problem of the antiquity of man in early America has rapidly divided itself into a series of detailed researches, each one dealing with special facets of the matter. To date the greatest progress in the relationship between the various cultures of the paleo-Indian has been made with geologic methods by which the rhythm of climatic changes of the late Pleistocene and recent times has been tied in with deposits involving human materials. The radiocarbon method has now appeared to bolster and refine the time scale. From all of these activities there is rapidly emerging a clearing picture of early times in the Americas.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veit Blauhut ◽  
Michael Stoelzle ◽  
Lauri Ahopelto ◽  
Manuela I. Brunner ◽  
Claudia Teutschbein ◽  
...  

Abstract. Drought events and their impacts vary spatially and temporally due to diverse pedo-climatic and hydrologic conditions, as well as variations in exposure and vulnerability, such as demographics and response actions. While hazardous severity and frequency of past drought events have been studied in detail, little is known about the effect of drought management strategies on the actual impacts, and how the hazard is perceived by relevant stakeholders for inducing action. In a continental study, we characterised and assessed the impacts and the perceptions of two recent drought events (2018 and 2019) in Europe and examined the relationship between management strategies and drought perception, hazard and impacts. The study was based on a pan-European survey involving national representatives from 28 countries and relevant stakeholders responding to a standard questionnaire. The survey focused on collecting information on stakeholders’ perceptions of drought, impacts on water resources and beyond, water availability and current drought management strategies at national and regional scales. The survey results were compared with the actual drought hazard information registered by the European Drought Observatory (EDO) for 2018 and 2019. The results highlighted high diversity in drought perceptions across different countries and in values of implemented drought management strategies to alleviate impacts by increasing national and sub-national awareness and resilience. The study concludes with an urgent need to further reduce drought impacts by constructing and implementing a European macro-level drought governance approach, such as a directive, which would strengthen national drought management and lessen harm to human and natural potentials.


2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Megan M. Friggens ◽  
Deborah M. Finch ◽  
Karen E. Bagne ◽  
Sharon J. Coe ◽  
David L. Hawksworth

Agrometeoros ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronaldo Matzenauer ◽  
Bernadete Radin ◽  
Alberto Cargnelutti Filho

O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a relação entre o fenômeno El Niño Oscilação Sul - ENOS e o rendimento de grãos de soja e de milho no Rio Grande do Sul e verificar a hipótese de que os eventos El Niño são favoráveis e os eventos La Niña são prejudiciais ao rendimento de grãos das culturas. Foram utilizados dados de rendimento de grãos dos anos agrícolas de 1974/75 a 2016/17, e relacionados com as ocorrências de eventos ENOS. Foram analisados os dados de rendimento observados na colheita e os dados estimados com a remoção da tendência tecnológica. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença significativa do rendimento médio de grãos de soja e de milho na comparação entre os eventos ENOS. Palavras-chave: El Niño, La Niña, safras agrícolas. Abstract – The objective of this work was to evaluate the relationship between the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon with the grain yield of soybean and maize in Rio Grande do Sul state, Brazil and to verify the hypothesis that the El Niño events are favorable and the La Niña events are harmful to the culture’s grain yields. Were used data from the agricultural years of 1974/75 to 2016/17, and related to the occurrence of ENOS events. We analyzed income data observed at harvest and estimated data with technological tendency was removed. The results showed that there was no significant difference in the average yield of soybeans and corn in the comparison between events.


2021 ◽  
Vol 99 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 218-219
Author(s):  
Andres Fernando T Russi ◽  
Mike D Tokach ◽  
Jason C Woodworth ◽  
Joel M DeRouchey ◽  
Robert D Goodband ◽  
...  

Abstract The swine industry has been constantly evolving to select animals with improved performance traits and to minimize variation in body weight (BW) in order to meet packer specifications. Therefore, understanding variation presents an opportunity for producers to find strategies that could help reduce, manage, or deal with variation of pigs in a barn. A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted by collecting data from multiple studies and available data sets in order to develop prediction equations for coefficient of variation (CV) and standard deviation (SD) as a function of BW. Information regarding BW variation from 16 papers was recorded to provide approximately 204 data points. Together, these data included 117,268 individually weighed pigs with a sample size that ranged from 104 to 4,108 pigs. A random-effects model with study used as a random effect was developed. Observations were weighted using sample size as an estimate for precision on the analysis, where larger data sets accounted for increased accuracy in the model. Regression equations were developed using the nlme package of R to determine the relationship between BW and its variation. Polynomial regression analysis was conducted separately for each variation measurement. When CV was reported in the data set, SD was calculated and vice versa. The resulting prediction equations were: CV (%) = 20.04 – 0.135 × (BW) + 0.00043 × (BW)2, R2=0.79; SD = 0.41 + 0.150 × (BW) - 0.00041 × (BW)2, R2 = 0.95. These equations suggest that there is evidence for a decreasing quadratic relationship between mean CV of a population and BW of pigs whereby the rate of decrease is smaller as mean pig BW increases from birth to market. Conversely, the rate of increase of SD of a population of pigs is smaller as mean pig BW increases from birth to market.


Author(s):  
A Salman Avestimehr ◽  
Seyed Mohammadreza Mousavi Kalan ◽  
Mahdi Soltanolkotabi

Abstract Dealing with the shear size and complexity of today’s massive data sets requires computational platforms that can analyze data in a parallelized and distributed fashion. A major bottleneck that arises in such modern distributed computing environments is that some of the worker nodes may run slow. These nodes a.k.a. stragglers can significantly slow down computation as the slowest node may dictate the overall computational time. A recent computational framework, called encoded optimization, creates redundancy in the data to mitigate the effect of stragglers. In this paper, we develop novel mathematical understanding for this framework demonstrating its effectiveness in much broader settings than was previously understood. We also analyze the convergence behavior of iterative encoded optimization algorithms, allowing us to characterize fundamental trade-offs between convergence rate, size of data set, accuracy, computational load (or data redundancy) and straggler toleration in this framework.


2021 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 261-289
Author(s):  
Eduard J. Alvarez-Palau ◽  
Alfonso Díez-Minguela ◽  
Jordi Martí-Henneberg

AbstractThis study explores the relationship between railroad integration and regional development on the European periphery between 1870 and 1910, based on a regional data set including 291 spatial units. Railroad integration is proxied by railroad density, while per capita GDP is used as an indicator of economic development. The period under study is of particular relevance as it has been associated with the second wave of railroad construction in Europe and also coincides with the industrialization of most of the continent. Overall, we found that railroads had a significant and positive impact on the growth of per capita GDP across Europe. The magnitude of this relationship appears to be relatively modest, but the results obtained are robust with respect to a number of different specifications. From a geographical perspective, we found that railroads had a significantly greater influence on regions located in countries on the northern periphery of Europe than in other outlying areas. They also helped the economies of these areas to begin the process of catching up with the continent’s industrialized core. In contrast, the regions on the southern periphery showed lower levels of economic growth, with this exacerbating the preexisting divergence in economic development. The expansion of the railroad network in them was unable to homogenize the diffusion of economic development and tended to further benefit the regions that were already industrialized. In most of the cases, the capital effect was magnified, and this contributed to the consolidation of newly created nation-states.


2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S641-S641
Author(s):  
Shanna L Burke

Abstract Little is known about how resting heart rate moderates the relationship between neuropsychiatric symptoms and cognitive status. This study examined the relative risk of NPS on increasingly severe cognitive statuses and examined the extent to which resting heart rate moderates this relationship. A secondary analysis of the National Alzheimer’s Coordinating Center Uniform Data Set was undertaken, using observations from participants with normal cognition at baseline (13,470). The relative risk of diagnosis with a more severe cognitive status at a future visit was examined using log-binomial regression for each neuropsychiatric symptom. The moderating effect of resting heart rate among those who are later diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) or Alzheimer’s disease (AD) was assessed. Delusions, hallucinations, agitation, depression, anxiety, elation, apathy, disinhibition, irritability, motor disturbance, nighttime behaviors, and appetite disturbance were all significantly associated (p<.001) with an increased risk of AD, and a reduced risk of MCI. Resting heart rate increased the risk of AD but reduced the relative risk of MCI. Depression significantly interacted with resting heart rate to increase the relative risk of MCI (RR: 1.07 (95% CI: 1.00-1.01), p<.001), but not AD. Neuropsychiatric symptoms increase the relative risk of AD but not MCI, which may mean that the deleterious effect of NPS is delayed until later and more severe stages of the disease course. Resting heart rate increases the relative risk of MCI among those with depression. Practitioners considering early intervention in neuropsychiatric symptomology may consider the downstream benefits of treatment considering the long-term effects of NPS.


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