An empirically based simulation model to inform flow management for endangered species conservation

Increasing water demand, water development, and on-going climate change have driven extensive changes to the hydrology, geomorphology and biology of arid-land rivers globally, driving an increasing need to understand how annual hydrologic conditions affect the distribution and abundance of imperiled desert fish populations. We analyzed the relationship between annual hydrologic conditions and the endangered Rio Grande silvery minnow in the Middle Rio Grande, New Mexico, USA, using hurdle models to predict both presence and density as a function of integrated annual hydrologic metrics. Both presence and density were positively related to spring high flow magnitude and duration and negatively related to summer drying, as indicated by an integrated flow metric. Simulations suggest hydrologic conditions near the wettest observed in the data set would be required to meet recovery goals in a single year in all reaches. We demonstrate how the models developed herein can be used to examine alternative water management strategies, including strategies that may currently be socially and logistically infeasible to implement, to identify strategies minimizing trade-offs between conservation and other management goals.

Trade Relationships and Gene Flow at Pottery Mound Pueblo, New Mexico

Pottery Mound is a large Ancestral Puebloan site situated within the Middle Rio Grande (MRG) region of New Mexico. This article adds to our understanding of relationships between Pottery Mound, the Western Pueblos, and Mexico through use of biological distance analysis based on dental nonmetric traits. Extensive material and cultural influences, as well as migration events from Western Pueblos to Pottery Mound, have been proposed by several scholars, while others have highlighted parallels to Mexico, especially Paquimé. A total of 1,528 individuals from the U.S. Southwest and Mexico were used to examine relationships between Pottery Mound and these areas. We find no evidence of close biological similarity between Pottery Mound and the Western Pueblos or northern Mexico. Instead, the results indicate biological affinity between Pottery Mound and sites in the MRG region and Mogollon areas. This similarity suggests that although there is evidence for trade between Pottery Mound and other sites in the southwestern United States and Mesoamerica, trade may not have been accompanied by significant gene flow from those areas from which the trade goods originated. It is possible that neighboring regions, such as the Mogollon, served as intermediaries for trade between Pottery Mound and distant regions.

Land and Water Traditions at the Core: The Importance of Community-Based and Community-Created Multicultural Education Models in New Mexico

For far too long has community been left out of major discussions surrounding educational reform in the state of New Mexico. Judge Sarah Singleton’s ruling in Martínez/Yazzie v. State of New Mexico (2018) opens up an opportunity for various stakeholders to offer alternative models in addressing the need to provide a ‘sufficient education’ to students who continue to be marginalized and underrepresented across the state. This article presents three educational models that are community-based and community-created—Cultivando Nuestro Futuro Leadership Institute, Macehualli Framework for Leadership Development, and the Ciclos de la Tierra: Cultivando Querencia through Mutualsimo and Social Justice Framework. Since 2011, the Center for Social Sustainable Systems (CESOSS), a small nonprofit in the Middle Rio Grande region, has been developing educational models that are founded on Indigenous/Native philosophies and that strive to connect young leaders, families, and community members to the importance of protecting and preserving land and water traditions in New Mexico. It is imperative that educational leaders include the voice and expertise of families and community-based organizations in addressing the recommendations as set forth in the lawsuit findings. The models presented here can offer ideas on how to incorporate transformative multicultural education models into K-12 education.

Empirical Application of Rubinstein Bargaining Model in Western U.S. Water Transactions

Water transactions are proposed as a policy tool for increasing regional drought resilience and improving allocative efficiency. However, water trading deviates considerably from classical competitive markets and alternative theoretical approaches are useful for understanding water market structure and performance. In this paper, we model a bilateral water transaction using a non-cooperative bargaining model. Then we empirically test predictions regarding time preference, outside options, and water supply risk. The econometric analysis encompasses two transaction regions: Colorado’s Front Range and New Mexico’s Middle Rio Grande Basin. We find evidence suggesting that larger cities pay lower prices in water transactions, faster growing and higher income cities pay higher prices and that prices are higher when snowpack variability is higher. Findings suggest that a stronger time preference results in a less favorable price for urban buyers and that buyer risk-aversion is a greater disadvantage in bargaining in locations with greater water supply variability.