THE DYNAMIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK PRICES AND EXCHANGE RATES: EVIDENCE FOR BRAZIL

2006 ◽  
Vol 09 (08) ◽  
pp. 1377-1396 ◽  
Author(s):  
BENJAMIN M. TABAK
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
International Investors

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between stock prices and exchange rates in the Brazilian economy. We use recently developed unit root and cointegration tests, which allow endogenous breaks, to test for a long run relationship between these variables. We performed linear, and nonlinear causality tests after considering both volatility and linear dependence. We found that there is no long run relationship, but there is linear Granger causality from stock prices to exchange rates, in line with the portfolio approach: stock prices lead exchange rates with a negative correlation. Furthermore, we found evidence of nonlinear Granger causality from exchange rates to stock prices, in line with the traditional approach: exchange rates lead stock prices. We believe these findings have practical applications for international investors and in the design of exchange rate policies.

Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets

2015 ◽  
pp. 166-181 ◽  
Author(s):  
Veli Akel ◽  
SerkanYılmaz Kandır ◽  
Özge Selvi Yavuz
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

All the emerging markets are vulnerable to the fears of capital outflows after the US Federal Reserve's tapering on May 22, 2013. The term “Fragile Five” was introduced by a research note of Morgan Stanley to refer to the countries of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. The aim of this study is to examine whether there are stock and foreign exchange markets integration among Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. The authors employ cointegration-based tests, vector error correction modeling techniques, and Granger causality tests to examine the long-run and short-run linkages between stock prices and exchange rates. The results of cointegration tests suggest that there is one long-run stationary relationship between the stock indices and the foreign exchange rates. Four of the Fragile Five (excluding Brazil) show that the stock prices are positively associated with exchange rates. Finally, vector error correction estimates lead to miscellaneous results.

scholarly journals Do Exports lead Economic Output in Five Asian Countries? A Cointegration and Granger Causality Analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 30
Author(s):  
Jiayi Huang ◽  
Miguel D. Ramirez
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests

This paper examines the relationship between exports and economic output for five major Asian economies using annual data in an expanded data set and employing unit root and cointegration analysis. It employs a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) that treats all variables in the modified production function as potentially endogenous and then determines via weak exogeneity tests whether some of the key variables can be treated as exogenous (omitted from the system). Johansen cointegration tests find a positive long-run relationship between exports and economic output for the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Cointegration tests find a negative long-run relationship between exports and economic output for India. The Block Granger causality tests and impulse response functions for the Philippines and Singapore find stronger causality from exports to economic output rather than the reverse. Granger causality tests in level form also find significant causality from exports to economic output. No causality exists between exports and economic output in the case of India. Exports seem to promote economic growth in three of the four countries that have cointegrated data, which supports the exports-led growth hypothesis found in some of the extant literature. The paper does not find cointegration for China because the variables are integrated of different orders from I(0) to I(2). 

Saving-Investment Connection: Evidence from the Asean Countries

2001 ◽  
Vol 45 (1) ◽  
pp. 46-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Anoruo
Keyword(s):  
Granger Causality ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Augmented Dickey Fuller ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Granger Causality Tests ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
Vector Error Correction Models ◽  
Long Run Equilibrium

The relationship between saving and investment has been sharply debated in the literature following the pioneering work of Feldstein and Horioka (1980). This paper extends this debate to the ASEAN countries by using cointegration procedure in time-series analysis. Specifically, three analyses are conducted. First, saving and investment are tested to determine the order of integration using both the Dickey–Fuller (DF) and augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) approaches. Second, the long-run equilibrium relationship between saving and investment is explored by utilizing the cointegration tests proposed by Johansen and Juselius (1990). Third, Granger–causality tests based on vector error-correction models (VECM) are undertaken to ascertain the direction of causality between the two series. The results indicate that saving and investment are integrated of order one [1(1)]. Based on the cointegration results, saving and investment are found to share long-run equilibrium association. The Granger-causality tests reveal that investment causes saving in the cases of Indonesia and Singapore. For the Philippines, causality runs from saving to investment. As for Malaysia and Thailand, the results suggest bi-directional causality between saving and investment.

Dynamic Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates in Emerging Markets

2016 ◽  
pp. 2257-2273
Author(s):  
Veli Akel ◽  
SerkanYılmaz Kandır ◽  
Özge Selvi Yavuz
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Emerging Markets ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Foreign Exchange ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Causality Tests

All the emerging markets are vulnerable to the fears of capital outflows after the US Federal Reserve's tapering on May 22, 2013. The term “Fragile Five” was introduced by a research note of Morgan Stanley to refer to the countries of Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. The aim of this study is to examine whether there are stock and foreign exchange markets integration among Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey. The authors employ cointegration-based tests, vector error correction modeling techniques, and Granger causality tests to examine the long-run and short-run linkages between stock prices and exchange rates. The results of cointegration tests suggest that there is one long-run stationary relationship between the stock indices and the foreign exchange rates. Four of the Fragile Five (excluding Brazil) show that the stock prices are positively associated with exchange rates. Finally, vector error correction estimates lead to miscellaneous results.

scholarly journals Zakat Distribution and Growth in the Federal Territory of Malaysia

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (8) ◽  
pp. 449-456
Author(s):  
Mohammed B. Yusoff
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This research paper aims to examine the impact of zakat distribution on growth in the Federal Territory Malaysia. Specifically, an econometric study is carried out to examine the ability of zakat expenditure to affect real economic growth in the Federal Territory Malaysia by employing various econometric procedures such as the unit root tests, the cointegration tests, the vector error-correction model (VECM), and the Granger causality tests. The findings of the study suggest that zakat expenditure has a positive relationship with real GDP in the long-run. The Granger causality test indicates that zakat spending causes real economic growth with no feedback. In other words, zakat expenditure could boost GDP in the Federal Territory Malaysia both in the short-run and long-run.

Dynamic Relationship between Crude Oil and Stock Prices in India: Before And After the Subprime Financial Crisis 2008

GIS Business ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 96-104
Author(s):  
P. Sakthivel ◽  
S. Rajaswaminathan ◽  
R. Renuka ◽  
N. R.Vembu
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Energy Index ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Before And After

This paper empirically discovered the inter-linkages between stock and crude oil prices before and after the subprime financial crisis 2008 by using Johansan co-integration and Granger causality techniques to explore both long and short- run relationships.  The whole data set of Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex, BSE energy index and oil prices are divided into two periods; before crisis (from February 15, 2005 to December31, 2007) and after crisis (from January 1, 2008 to December 31, 2018) are collected and analyzed. The results discovered that there is one-way causal relationship from crude oil prices to Nifty index, Nifty energy index, BSE Sensex and BSE energy index but not other way around in both periods. However, a bidirectional causality relationship between BSE Energy index and crude oil prices during post subprime financial crisis 2008. The co-integration results suggested that the absence of long run relationship between crude oil prices and market indices of BSE Sensex, BSE energy index, Nifty index and Nifty energy index before and after subprime financial crisis 2008.

scholarly journals Dynamic Relationship Between Energy and Economic Growth: Evidence from D8 Countries.

2011 ◽  
Vol 50 (4II) ◽  
pp. 437-458 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarwat Razzaqi ◽  
Faiz Bilquees ◽  
Saadia . Sherbaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Production And Consumption ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Oil Embargo ◽  
The Relationship

Energy sector has a vital influence on an economy, on both demand and supply sides. Therefore, energy production and consumption bear great importance for the developing world. The oil embargo of 1970‘s and its impact on major macroeconomic variables throughout the world attracted many economists to examine the relationship between energy and economic prosperity. The researchers have been unable to establish a definitive direction of causality between the two variables. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate the dynamic relationship between energy use and economic growth in the D8 countries. The evidence gathered through application of VAR Granger Causality, Johansen Cointegration and VECM proves existence of short-run and long-run correlation between energy use and economic development in all countries. The results supported either uni-directional or bi-directional causality in the D8 countries except for Indonesia in short-run where non-causality was established between the two variables. JEL classifications: C22; Q43. Keywords: Energy Use, Economic Growth, D8, VAR Granger Causality, Cointegration, VECM

The dynamic relationship between CO2 emission, international tourism and energy consumption in Pakistan: a cointegration approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 74 (4) ◽  
pp. 761-779 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaping Liu ◽  
Tafazal Kumail ◽  
Wajahat Ali ◽  
Farah Sadiq
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Environmental Quality ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Growth Energy

Purpose The present study aims to investigate the dynamic relationship between international tourist receipts, economic growth, energy use and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Pakistan over the period 1980-2016. Many researchers have investigated the link between tourism and CO2 emissions, but there is no clear picture as the results are contradictory. This study is an attempt to compliment the literature related to tourism and environmental quality. Design/methodology/approach The study adopted the autoregressive distributed lagged (ARDL) model to investigate the short- and long-run estimates simultaneously. The study further applied Granger causality to find out the direction of causalities. To arrive at long-run robust estimates, the study used dynamic ordinary least squares (DOLS) model. Findings The results found that tourist receipts have no significant impact on environmental quality, while growth and energy consumption are the main determinants of CO2 emissions in Pakistan. The Granger causality test confirmed unidirectional causalities from GDP and energy consumption toward CO2 emissions, while tourist receipts do not affect environmental quality. DOLS technique confirmed the long-run estimates of ARDL model. Research limitations/implications The result of the study complements the literature by adding new evidence regarding the nexus of tourism and environment. Findings of the study are important for policymakers and regulatory bodies to place their focus on the development of tourism sector (services sector) rather than energy-intensive manufacturing activities to sustain the growth of the country in higher quartiles, as tourism receipts have no significant negative externalities toward environment, while energy use is one of the key determinants of environmental degradation. Originality/value This study used time series data over the period 1980-2016 for Pakistan to inspect the dynamic relationship between tourist receipts, economic growth, energy consumption and CO2 emissions.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Stock Prices and Exchange Rates: The Focus on Dar Es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE)

2017 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Fredynandy M John ◽  
Zakayo S Kisava
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Dar Es Salaam ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Vector Autoregressive ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Daily Data

This paper aims to examine the existing relationship between the prices of different stocks traded in the Dar es Salaam Stock Exchange (DSE) and the Tanzanian Shillings – United States dollar exchange rates (TZS/USD). In this study, we use the daily data sets covering a period of six years from August 15, 2011 through July 28, 2017 making 1455 observations. Vector Autoregressive (VAR) – Granger Causality model is employed accompanied with several tests conducted on the variables and the model itself. The findings conclude that, there is a short-term association between Stock Prices (SP) and Exchange Rates (ExR). Additionally, Stock Prices Granger Causes Exchange Rates as evidenced by Granger Causality and the Impulse test. These findings are supported by the fact that shocks in the Exchange Rates have no effect in the Stock Prices. This could mean that an investor can invest in short term at the DSE.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document