Sanctions and incentives to repudiate external debt

2021 ◽  
pp. 095162982098485
Author(s):  
Carlo de Bassa ◽  
Edoardo Grillo ◽  
Francesco Passarelli
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Fiscal Capacity ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Political Turmoil ◽  
Target Country

Often foreign countries levy sanctions in the attempt to foment discontent with a hostile government. But sanctions may provoke costly reactions by the leaders of the target country. This paper presents a model in which sanctions exhaust the target country economically and impair its government’s fiscal capacity. Then, an office-motivated leader may find it convenient to default on foreign debt in order to free resources that she can invest to regain internal political support. The default thus becomes a defensive tool to partially dampen the internal political turmoil sanctions generate.

C. PENGARUH UTANG LUAR NEGERI DAN EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI (Studi pada Produk Domestik Bruto Indonesia Periode 2015-2019)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 22
Author(s):  
Farah Syahri Maulidiyah
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Analysis Method ◽  
Indonesian Government ◽  
Independent Variable

ABSTRACT The purpose of this research is to analyze the influence of exports and foreign debt which can affect Indonesia's GDP (Gross Domesty Product). The variables of this research are the foreign debt value of the Indonesian government and the value of Indonesian exports as the independent variable, and the value of Indonesia's GDP as the dependent variable. The data used are supporting data for the 2015-2019 period from the time series (time series) of Bank Indonesia and BPS. The data analysis method used multiple linear regression analysis. The results of this study are the value of the Indonesian government's foreign debt and the value of Indonesia's exports have a significant effect. Meanwhile, the results of the partial test (t-test) show that the value of foreign debt and exports of the Indonesian government greatly affects the value of Indonesia's GDP. Keywords : External Debt, Export, Economic Growth (Menggunakan template jurnal sinta 2 JESP (Jurnal Ekonomi dan Studi Pembangunan) eISSSN : 2502-7115 l pISSN : 2502-7115 Universitas Negeri Malang).

scholarly journals Problem długu publicznego w państwach Unii Gospodarczej i Walutowej

2012 ◽  
pp. 11-46
Author(s):  
Izabela Zawiślińska
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Union Member ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Global Dimension ◽  
Member States ◽  
Euro Zone ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Common

Public debt and the increasing indebtedness of states is not a new phenomenon even in the context of bankruptcy of state. In the past we have already experienced internal and external state insolvency. What causes today’s increase in preoccupation with external bankruptcy, except for global dimension of debt, is a change in its structure. An increasing number of states uses foreign debt to finance budget and trade imbalances. This tendency is observed among developing as well as developed states, including Economic and Monetary Union member states. The increase in external debt is in large part caused by privet debt which in certain circumstances is transferred to state. The level of total external debt of many Euro Zone member states in relation to GDP is much higher than the level of public debt. These are the reasons that justify the fear for the future of Euro Zone after bankruptcy of some of the member states. What increases the level of fear is the fact that the actions undertaken by European Union and EMU do not cause expected results and therefore cannot be judged positively. Paradoxically, some of them have only political and PR dimensions. Politicians may brag about their resolve to defend the once adopted solutions and markets may remain in their illusion that the present situation is only temporary. How long will it last? Last actions seem to be just a game designed to gain some more time to prepare different solutions such as fundamental and subjective restructuring of Euro Zone and – who knows? – maybe even of the European integration as such. The words of European Central Bank president Mario Draghi (August 2, 2012) stressing the fact that there’s no turning back from the Euro and that he is going to defend the common currency need to be understood in that context. The belief in the solidarity of states and optimistic outlook for the future should not result in such dramatic and desperate words.

scholarly journals Belarus’ external debt in the context of the pandemic and ways to resolve it

2021 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 479-489
Author(s):  
Anna D. Gracheva ◽  
Elena A. Miroshina
Keyword(s):  
External Debt ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Level Of Confidence ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Political Protests ◽  
Special Weight ◽  
The Government

The changes in the amount of the external debt of Belarus depending on various factors are analyzed. The study found that the consequences of the epidemic COVID-19 had a significant impact on the increase in the amount of external debt. In addition, political protests against the government have a special weight in the reasons for the growth of Belarus external debt, since their consequences significantly reduced the level of confidence on the part of foreign investors, which led to a fall in the ruble. The role of foreign countries as the main creditors in the external debt of Belarus, as well as in the economy of Belarus as a whole is examined, and the importance of the Belarusian friendship with Russia is considered. In conclusion, an assessment of the structure of the Belarusian economy and methods of its regulation is carried out, and then possible ways of settling the Belarusian debt are presented.

scholarly journals The Effect Of Corruption, Democracy And Foreign Debt On Economic Growth In Asian Pacific Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rommy Fernando Putra ◽  
Dewi Zaini Putri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Panel Data ◽  
Regression Coefficient ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Pacific Region ◽  
Asia Pacific Region ◽  
Political Condition ◽  
Data Documentation

Economic growth can be defined as a process of changing the economic conditions of a country on an ongoing basis towards a better condition during a certain period. This study aims to examine the effect of corruption, democracy and external debt on economic growth in 7 countries Asia Pasific. This is because of The Asia Pacific became known around the 1980s when financial market, international trade and political condition have increased. The data used is panel data during the period 2014-2018, and collected by data documentation and library obtained from World Bank, International Transparency and Freedom In The World. Using the panel data regression, the estimation results are (1) Corruption has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in 7 Asia Pacific countries, with a regression coefficient value of -0.2753, (2) Democracy has a positive and significant effect on economic growth in 7 Asia Pacific countries with a regression coefficient value of 0.0586, (3) External debt has a significant positive effect on economic growth in 7 countries Asia Pacific region with a regression coefficient of 0.7604 (4) Corruption, Democracy and External Debt have a significant effect on economic growth in 7 countries in the Asia Pacific region, with a probability value (F-statistic) of 0.0008

Argentine trade balance may fall back into deficit

2016 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Trade Balance ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Trade Liberalisation ◽  
Capital Inflows ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Export Prices ◽  
Export Tax ◽  
Foreign Capital Inflows ◽  
The Government

Subject Outlook for the trade balance. Significance Exports declined in the first half of 2016. The January devaluation and export tax reductions proved insufficient to offset lower export prices and the Brazilian recession. By contrast, import volumes climbed. Gradual real currency appreciation and trade liberalisation boosted purchases, especially of consumer goods and vehicles. The government is encouraging trade liberalisation as a tool to control inflation and improve local competitiveness. Impacts Growing foreign trade deficits will leave the country more exposed to sudden shifts in foreign capital inflows. Though trade liberalisation may boost long-term competitiveness, the government may lack the political support needed to sustain the policy. Growing foreign debt will raise fears of a new external crisis, given Argentina's poor record.

From Disorder to Growth and Back: The Military Regime (1964–1984)

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lee J. Alston ◽  
Marcus André Melo ◽  
Bernardo Mueller ◽  
Carlos Pereira
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Social Inclusion ◽  
Import Substitution ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Business Community ◽  
Political Rights ◽  
Military Government ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Military

This chapter discusses the military government and the belief in “developmentalism” which motivated the institutions put in place by the regime. Developmentalism rested on top-down technocratic planning and was a coalition between the military and the business community, both domestic and foreign. Import substitution policies along with state-led industrialization brought economic growth in the late 1960s and into the mid-1970s. But, the Brazilian miracle of the late 1960s and early 1970s began to sputter out, and, moreover, political rights became more constrained. The years of censorship and a closed political system sowed the seeds for a more open political order. Above all, the failure of the expansionist strategy of growth through import substitution accompanied by inflation and external debt became self-evident. Citizens also began to blame the government for not reducing economic and social inequality. The dominant belief that economic growth should precede social inclusion started losing political support.

National Security Environments, Patriotism, and Japanese Public Opinion

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 96-113
Author(s):  
KOJI KAGOTANI
Keyword(s):  
National Security ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
Political Support ◽  
Theoretical Development ◽  
National Defense ◽  
The Public ◽  
Japanese Politics ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
National Leaders ◽  
Rational Demand

AbstractThis study examines Japanese reactions to neighboring countries’ behavior by addressing possible micro-motives, such as patriotism, the rational demand for national defense, and retrospective policy evaluation. This theoretical development leads to distinctive hypotheses from different motivations and directly tests them using macro-data (not survey data). This research will apply this framework to Japanese politics and will show that foreign threats stimulate patriotism in the public mind and enhance political support for national leaders. It will also demonstrate that the Japanese public has no optimistic view of the new prime minister and that the honeymoon effect in previous research may be confounded with the patriotic effect because the new leader is less experienced and is often challenged by foreign countries.

The Causal Relationship Between Foreign Debt and Economic Growth: Evidence from Commonwealth Independent States

2021 ◽  
pp. 001573252110183
Author(s):  
Nermin Yasar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Economic Transition ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Value Added ◽  
Transition Process ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Independent States

This study investigates the relationship between external borrowing and economic growth in the Commonwealth Independent States during the period 1995–2018. Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model is employed to determine the co-integration relationship among the series and then vector error correction model (VECM) is used to analyse the causality between external debt and income. The obtained results suggest that there is a negative long-term unidirectional causal relationship running from external debt to GDP presenting a strong evidence of existence of debt overhang hypothesis. The possible reasons for this unidirectional causal relationship can be explained by poor management of provided financial resources and incomplete governance in economic transition process along with structural rigidities and immature institutions in these countries which, in the long term, resulted in insufficient capital charged to service external debt. The policymakers in these post-Soviet countries should not use foreign loans to capitalise the deficits in the economies; instead, they should be more determined in employing these funds in the areas that will create national value-added production and, thus, future income. JEL Classification: C10, F34, H63

scholarly journals LA DEUDA EXTERNA PUBLICA PERUANA 1970-2003

2019 ◽  
pp. 59-62
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Palabras Clave

LA DEUDA EXTERNA PUBLICA PERUANA 1970-2003 PERUVIAN PUBLIC FOREIGN DEBT 1970-2003 José Rospigliosi Ferro CECASUR Centro Científico Cultural de Acción Social Ulises Reátegui DOI: https://doi.org/10.33017/RevECIPeru2004.0017/ RESUMEN Entre el año 1970 y el 2003 la Deuda Externa Pública Peruana de mediano y largo plazo, ha recepcionado de los países extranjeros un monto total de $ 32 656 millones de dólares, habiéndose amortizado $ 31 513 millones de dólares y pagando como intereses el monto de $ 26 549 millones de dólares que significa un servicio de la deuda externa por $ 58 062 millones de dólares. Esto ha significado una descapitalización del país por este rubro en $ 25 406 millones de dólares en este periodo, que hace un promedio anual de 770 millones que muestran que salen más recursos que los que ingresan al país, lo que significa una falacia de la denominada “ayuda externa”. El periodo de mayor descapitalización ha sido entre 1986 y 1990. Palabras clave: Economía peruana, deuda externa, Perú, ingreso nacional, remuneraciones, utilidades. ABSTRACT Between 1970 and 2003 the medium and large term Peruvian Public Foreign Debt had receiving of foreign countries an total amount of $ 32 656 million, having amortized $ 31 513 million and having paid as interests a amount of $ 26 549 million, that is meaning a foreign extern service of $ 58 062. This is a minus capitalization of Perú for $ 25 406 millions in this period, that made an annual average of 770 millions that meaning go out more recourses than be income in the country, and this is a falseness of called “extern aid”. The time of greater minus capitalization was between 1986 y 1990. Keywords: Peruvian economy, foreign debt, Perú, national revenue, remuneration, utilities.

scholarly journals Economic and financial relations of Serbia with foreign countries in the period 2000-2003

2004 ◽  
Vol 44 (160) ◽  
pp. 75-89 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mladjen Kovacevic
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Currency ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Foreign Debt ◽  
Trade Deficit ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Foreign Countries ◽  
Floating Exchange Rate ◽  
Foreign Indebtedness ◽  
High Level

The dissolution of the federation, war in the immediate environment, the UN sanctions, scarce investment as well as the NATO air-attacks had disastrous consequences for trade and financial relations of Serbia with foreign countries. Simultaneously, its foreign debt rose sharply due to the accrued interests, being at the end of 2000 substantially higher than Serbian gross domestic product. Thanks to the write-off of 51% of debt towards the Paris club, a windfall of donations and obtaining new favorable medium-term and long-term credits, the condition of Serbia's international financial relations considerably improved in the period 2001-2003, thus enabling it to run a foreign-exchange surplus during this period. Due to the policy of de facto floating exchange rate, sudden and drastic liberalization of imports and the lack of non-tariff protection, exports of goods and services in the last three years, contrary to plans, have increased much more slowly than imports, resulting in a large increase in growth and an enormously high level of trade deficit unsustainable in the long run. Due to new credits euro-denominated and other foreign-currency denominated debts being converted into the increasingly weaker dollar and the accrual of interests Serbian foreign debt increased sharply reaching an all-time high at the end of last year and being twice as high as was officially predicted three years before. The level of foreign debt is very high. Trade deficit and foreign indebtedness have become the most serious problems of Serbian economy and unless appropriate measures are taken, it will soon face a serious debt crisis.

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