scholarly journals Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (7) ◽  
pp. 3400-3426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Javier Bianchi
Keyword(s):  
Quantitative Analysis ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Credit Constraints ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Constrained Efficiency ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Cost

Credit constraints linking debt to market-determined prices embody a systemic credit externality that drives a wedge between competitive and constrained socially optimal equilibria, inducing private agents to overborrow. This externality arises because private agents fail to internalize the financial amplification effects of carrying a large amount of debt when credit constraints bind. We conduct a quantitative analysis of this externality in a two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model of a small open economy calibrated to emerging markets. Raising the cost of borrowing during tranquil times restores constrained efficiency and significantly reduces the incidence and severity of financial crises. JEL: E13, E32, E44, F41, G01

scholarly journals The Vietnamese business cycle in an estimated small open economy New Keynesian DSGE model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Phuong V. Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Research Paper ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Business Cycle Fluctuations ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Business Cycle

PurposeThe primary purpose of this paper is to investigate the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam. To this end, the author develops a small open economy New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (SOE-NK-DSGE) model. Accordingly, this model includes various features, such as habit consumption, staggered price, price indexation, incomplete exchange-rate pass-through (ERPT), the failures of the law of one price (LOOP) and the uncovered interest rate parity. It is then estimated by using the Bayesian technique and Vietnamese data 1999Q1–2017Q1. Based on the estimated model, this paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in this emerging economy. Indeed, this research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.Design/methodology/approachA SOE-NK-DSGE model—Bayesian estimation.FindingsThis paper analyzes the sources of the business cycle fluctuations in Vietnam.Originality/valueThis research paper is the first attempt at developing and estimating the SOE-NK-DSGE model with the Bayesian technique for Vietnam.

LABOR MARKET VOLATILITY, SKILLS, AND FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1018-1047 ◽  
Author(s):  
Claudia M. Buch ◽  
Christian Pierdzioch
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Financial Globalization ◽  
Skilled Workers ◽  
Hours Worked ◽  
Skill Levels ◽  
Level Data ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
The Impact

We analyze the impact of financial globalization on volatilities of hours worked and wages of high-skilled and low-skilled workers. Using cross-country, industry-level data for the years 1970–2004, we establish stylized facts that document how volatilities of hours worked and wages of workers with different skill levels have changed over time. We then document that the volatility of hours worked by low-skilled workers has increased the most in response to the increase in financial globalization. We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a small open economy that is consistent with the empirical results. The model predicts that greater financial globalization increases the volatility of hours worked, and this effect is strongest for low-skilled workers.

A NOTE ON THE BUSINESS CYCLE IMPLICATIONS OF TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE GOODS

2013 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1172-1186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aurélien Eyquem ◽  
Güneş Kamber
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycle ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Intermediate Goods ◽  
Relative Prices ◽  
Cost Channel ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
The Cost

Trade in intermediate goods is an important feature of trade in developed small open economies. We show that a model that assumes trade in intermediate goods brings the dynamics of an otherwise standard small open economy closer to what is observed in the data. With trade in intermediate goods, movements of international relative prices affect the economy through an additional channel, denoted the “cost channel.” A model embedding this channel comes closer to business cycle data in several dimensions compared to models with trade in final goods only. It increases the share of output variance explained by foreign shocks, lowers the exchange rate pass-through, and delivers a positive international correlation of outputs. In addition, the matching of other business cycle moments is at least as good as in a model with trade in final goods only.

scholarly journals Informality, Frictions, and Macroprudential Policy

2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 (255) ◽  
Author(s):  
Moez Ben Hassine ◽  
Nooman Rebei
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Financial Frictions ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Labor Search ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

We analyze the effects of macroprudential policies through the lens of an estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model tailored to developing markets. In particular, we explicitly introduce informality in the labor and goods markets within a small open economy embedding financial frictions, nominal and real rigidities, labor search and matching, and an explicit banking sector. We use the estimated version of the model to run welfare analysis under optimized monetary and macroprudential rules. Results show that although informality reduces the efficiency of macroprudential policies following a convex fashion, combining the latter with an inflation targeting objective could be beneficial.

Financial openness, bank capital flows, and the effectiveness of macroprudential policies

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-32
Author(s):  
Hao Jin ◽  
Chen Xiong
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Capital Flows ◽  
Open Economies ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Empirical Support ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Macroprudential Policy ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Macroprudential Policies ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic

Abstract This paper quantitatively examines the macroeconomic and welfare effects of macroprudential policies in open economies. We develop a small open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, where banks choose their funding sources (domestic vs. foreign deposits) and are subject to financial constraints. Our model predicts that banks reduce leverage in response to a macroprudential policy tightening, but increasingly rely on foreign funding. This endogenous shifts of funding composition significantly undermine the stabilizing effect and welfare gains of macroprudential policies. Our results also suggest macroprudential policies are less effective in financially more open economies, and optimal policy should take capital flows into consideration. Finally, we find empirical support for the model predictions in a group of developing and emerging economies.

External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

2022 ◽  
pp. 097491012110673
Author(s):  
Titus Ayobami Ojeyinka ◽  
Dauda Olalekan Yinusa
Keyword(s):  
General Equilibrium ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Transmission Channels ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Trade And Exchange ◽  
The Impact

The study examines the sources of external shocks and investigates their transmission channels in Nigeria using the trade-weighted variables from the country’s five top trading partners. Based on the assumption of the small open economy model, the study adopts the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model on quarterly data between 1981 and 2018 using the Bayesian estimation technique. Findings from the study reveal that external shocks have a temporary and short-lived effect on the Nigerian economy. In addition, the article shows that oil price, foreign output, and foreign inflation shock have positive impacts on output gap and inflation, while the impact of foreign interest rate shock on the output gap and inflation is negative and not significant. The study also reveals that external shocks collectively explain 86% and 39%of total fluctuations in the output gap and inflation, respectively. Lastly, the study finds that external shocks transmit to the Nigerian economy via different channels. The study, therefore, concludes that terms of trade and exchange rate channels are the dominant transmitters of external shocks in Nigeria. Based on the findings from the study, important policy implications are highlighted.

After the Panic: Are Financial Crises Demand or Supply Shocks? Evidence from International Trade

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 509-526 ◽  
Author(s):  
Felipe Benguria ◽  
Alan M. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Open Economy ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Small Open Economy ◽  
Supply Side ◽  
Supply Shocks ◽  
Crisis Events ◽  
Empirical Tests ◽  
Negative Shock ◽  
Research And Policy

Are financial crises a negative shock to aggregate demand or supply? This is a fundamental question for research and policy making. Arguments for stimulus usually presume demand-side shortfalls; arguments for tax cuts or structural reform look to the supply side. Resolving the question requires models with both mechanisms, and empirical tests to tell them apart. We develop a small open economy model, where a country is subject to deleveraging shocks that impose binding credit constraints on households and/or firms. These financial crisis events leave distinct statistical signatures in the time series record that divide sharply between each type of shock. Empirical analysis reveals a clear picture: after financial crises the dominant pattern is that imports contract, exports hold steady or even rise, and the real exchange rate depreciates. History shows financial crises are predominantly a negative shock to demand. (JEL F14, F31, F41, G01, N10, N20, N70)

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document