THE EFFECTIVENESS OF MACROPRUDENTIAL POLICIES IN MITIGATING THE SYSTEMIC RISK IN INDONESIA

This study aims to investigate the effectiveness of macroprudential policies in mitigating the systemic risk in Indonesia. The study uses quantitative descriptive analysis with the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and emphasizes on the impact of two macroprudential instruments applied in Indonesia; Macroprudential Liquidity Buffer (MLB) and Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB) to credit growth for conventional and financing growth for Sharia bank. This study employes monthly data over the periods M12010-M102019 that obtained from Bank Indonesia’s (BI) website (www.bi.go.di) and the data published monthly by Financial Service Authority (OJK); Indonesia Bank Statistic and Sharia Bank Statistic.The result indicates that MLB has a positive impact on credit growth and negative effect financing for Sharia Bank. Otherwise, CCyB shows the opposite results, where it has a negative effect on credit growth, while in the Sharia bank, CCyB has a positive effect. Therefore, it is sufficient to conclude that MLB has a capability to curb the systemic risk for Sharia bank, whereas CCyB is effective for conventional bank.

The Complexity of Global Capital Flows: Evidence from G20 Countries

With the high volatility of capital flow and the imbalance of capital flow between emerging and advanced economies, the complexity of capital flow management is always attractive to researchers and policymakers. This study explores how capital flows in G20 countries are significantly impacted by pull and push factors by using regressions, dynamic system GMM, and Panel-VAR models. The results show that international capital flows are significantly associated with domestic financial development, which is measured by stock-market liquidity and domestic credit. Moreover, international capital flows are affected by push factors, such as the growth of the world economy and fluctuations of the crude oil price. This study controls for real interest rate, foreign currency, and capital restriction because the government and macroprudential policies are critical influences on stabilizing capital flows.

Financial spillovers, spillbacks, and the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination

This paper discusses the scope for international macroprudential policy coordination in a financially integrated world economy. It begins with a review of the transmission channels associated with, and the empirical evidence on, financial spillovers and spillbacks. Limitations of the existing literature are also identified. The potential gains associated with cross-border macroprudential coordination, dwelling on both recent analytical contributions and quantitative studies based on multi-country models with financial frictions, are then evaluated. The issue of whether coordination of macroprudential policies simultaneously requires some degree of monetary policy coordination is also discussed. The analysis focuses on the potential for policy coordination between major advanced economies and a group identified as systemically-important middle-income countries (SMICs). Next, practical ways to promote international macroprudential policy coordination are considered. Following a discussion of Basel III’s Principle of reciprocity and ways to improve it, the paper advocates a further strengthening of the current statistical, empirical and analytical work conducted by international financial institutions to evaluate, and raise awareness of, the gains from international coordination of macroprudential policies.

Out of Sync Subnational Housing Markets and Macroprudential Policies in the UK

We examine whether regionally differentiated macroprudential policies can address financial stability concerns and moderate house price differences in the UK. We disaggregate both the household sector and the housing stock in a two-region DSGE model with out of sync subnational housing markets and compare four policy types: standard monetary policy, leaning against the wind monetary policy, national macroprudential policy or one that targets region-specific LTV ratios. In terms of reducing variances of house prices, regionally differentiated macroprudential policy performs best, provided the policy authorities are concerned with stabilising output and house prices rather than simply minimising the variance of inflation.