scholarly journals Retrodicting the rise, spread, and fall of large-scale states in the Old World

PLoS ONE ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. e0261816
Author(s):  
James S. Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
State Collapse ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
State Growth ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms

Understanding the rise, spread, and fall of large-scale states in the ancient world has occupied thinkers for millennia. However, no comprehensive mechanistic model of state dynamics based on their insights has emerged, leaving it difficult to evaluate empirically or quantitatively the different explanations offered. Here I present a spatially- and temporally-resolved agent-based model incorporating several hypotheses about the behavior of large-scale (>200 thousand km2) agrarian states and steppe nomadic confederations in Afro-Eurasia between the late Bronze and the end of the Medieval era (1500 BCE to 1500 CE). The model tracks the spread of agrarian states as they expand, conquer the territory of other states or are themselves conquered, and, occasionally, collapse. To accurately retrodict the historical record, several key contingent regional technological advances in state military and agricultural efficiencies are identified. Modifying the location, scale, and timing of these contingent developments allows quantitative investigation of historically-plausible alternative trajectories of state growth, spread, and fragmentation, while demonstrating the operation and limits of the model. Under nominal assumptions, the rapid yet staggered increase of agrarian state sizes across Eurasia after 600 BCE occurs in response to intense military pressure from ‘mirror‘ steppe nomadic confederations. Nevertheless, in spite of various technological advances throughout the period, the modeled creation and spread of new agrarian states is a fundamental consequence of state collapse and internal civil wars triggered by rising ‘demographic-structural’ pressures that occur when state territorial growth is checked yet (warrior elite) population growth continues. Together the model’s underlying mechanisms substantially account for the number of states, their duration, location, spread rate, overall occupied area, and total population size for three thousand years.

scholarly journals Retrodicting the Rise, Spread, and Fall of Large-scale States in the Old World

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
James S Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Population Size ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Mechanistic Model ◽  
Historical Record ◽  
State Collapse ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
State Growth ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms

Understanding the rise, spread, and fall of large-scale states in the ancient world has occupied thinkers for millennia. However, no comprehensive mechanistic model based on their insights has emerged, leaving it difficult to evaluate empirically or quantitatively the different explanations offered. Here I present a spatially- and temporally-resolved agent-based model of large-scale (>200 thousand km2) agrarian states and steppe nomadic confederations in Afro-Eurasia between the middle Bronze and the end of the Medieval era (1500 BCE - 1500 CE). The model tracks the spread of agrarian states as they expand, conquer the territory of other states or are themselves conquered, depending on their relative modeled population size and military efficiency. To accurately retrodict the historical record, several key regional technological advances in state military and agricultural efficiencies are identified. Modifying the location, scale, and timing of these innovations allows quantitative investigation of historically-plausible alternative trajectories of state growth, spread, and fragmentation, while demonstrating the operation and limits of the model. In particular, under nominal assumptions, the historically rapid increase of agrarian state sizes, first in southwest Asia after 600 CE and then in east Asia after 200 BCE, is accounted for by modeling increasing military efficiency improvements in response to intense extortion pressure from nomadic tribes and subsequent ‘mirror’ confederations following the invention and slow diffusion of horse cavalry tactics across the steppe after 1000 BCE. However, in spite of various technological advances, throughout the period the modeled creation and spread of new agrarian states is a fundamental consequence of state collapse and internal civil wars triggered by rising 'demographic-structural' pressures that occur when territorial growth is checked yet (elite) population growth continues. Together the model's underlying mechanisms substantially account for the number of states, their duration, location, spread rate, overall occupied area, and population size for three millennia.

scholarly journals Endocrine neoplasms in familial syndromes of hyperparathyroidism

2016 ◽  
Vol 23 (6) ◽  
pp. R229-R247 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yulong Li ◽  
William F Simonds
Keyword(s):  
Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Multiple Endocrine Neoplasia Type ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
Endocrine Neoplasia ◽  
Endocrine Neoplasia Type ◽  
Technological Advances ◽  
Familial Tumors ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Familial Hyperparathyroidism

Familial syndromes of hyperparathyroidism, including multiple endocrine neoplasia type 1 (MEN1), multiple endocrine neoplasia type 2A (MEN2A), and the hyperparathyroidism-jaw tumor (HPT-JT), comprise 2–5% of primary hyperparathyroidism cases. Familial syndromes of hyperparathyroidism are also associated with a range of endocrine and nonendocrine tumors, including potential malignancies. Complications of the associated neoplasms are the major causes of morbidities and mortalities in these familial syndromes, e.g., parathyroid carcinoma in HPT-JT syndrome; thymic, bronchial, and enteropancreatic neuroendocrine tumors in MEN1; and medullary thyroid cancer and pheochromocytoma in MEN2A. Because of the different underlying mechanisms of neoplasia, these familial tumors may have different characteristics compared with their sporadic counterparts. Large-scale clinical trials are frequently lacking due to the rarity of these diseases. With technological advances and the development of new medications, the natural history, diagnosis, and management of these syndromes are also evolving. In this article, we summarize the recent knowledge on endocrine neoplasms in three familial hyperparathyroidism syndromes, with an emphasis on disease characteristics, molecular pathogenesis, recent developments in biochemical and radiological evaluation, and expert opinions on surgical and medical therapies. Because these familial hyperparathyroidism syndromes are associated with a wide variety of tumors in different organs, this review is focused on those endocrine neoplasms with malignant potential.

Birlikte Yaşama Kültürü Çerçevesinde Avrupa Birliği ve Türkiye Politikaları: Suriyelilere Yönelik Tutumun Sultanbeyli Örneği Üzerinden Değerlendirilmesi

2017 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-61
Author(s):  
Pelin Sönmez ◽  
Abulfaz Süleymanov
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Social Acceptance ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
The Other ◽  
Syrian Refugees ◽  
The European Union ◽  
International Protection ◽  
Legal Structure ◽  
Turkish People

Türkiye, Cumhuriyet tarihinin en yoğun zorunlu göç dalgasını 2011 yılından bu yana süren Suriye Savaşı ile yaşamaktadır. Suriye vatandaşlarının geçici koruma statüsü altında Türkiye toplumuna her açıdan entegrasyonları günümüzün ve geleceğin politika öncelikleri arasında düşünülmelidir. Öte yandan ülkeye kabul edilen sığınmacıların kendi kültürel kimliğini kaybetmeden içinde yaşadığı ev sahibi topluma uyumu, ortak yaşam kültürünün gelişmesi açısından önem arz etmektedir. Bu makalede, "misafir" olarak kabul edilen Suriyeli vatandaşların Türk toplumunca kabul edilmeleri ve dışlanma risklerinin azaltılmasına yönelik devlet politikaları ortaya konularak, üye ve aday ülkelere göçmenlerin dışlanmasını önlemek için Avrupa Birliği (AB) tarafından sunulan hukuki yapı ve kamu hizmeti inisiyatifleri incelenmekte, birlikte yaşam kültürü çerçevesinde Suriyeli vatandaşlara yönelik  toplumsal kabul düzeyleri ele alınmaktadır. Çalışma iki ana bölümden oluşmaktadır: göçmen ve sığınmacılara karşı toplumsal dışlanmayı engellemek için benimsenen yasa ve uygulamaların etkisi ve İstanbul-Sultanbeyli bölgesinde Suriyeli sığınmacılarla ilgili toplumsal algı çalışmasının sonuçları. Bölgede ikamet eden Suriyelilere yönelik toplumsal kabul düzeyinin yüksek olduğu görülürken, halkın Suriyelileri kendilerine  kültürel ve dini olarak yakın hissetmesi toplumsal kabul düzeyini olumlu etkilemektedir. ABSTRACT IN ENGLISHAn evaluation of the European Union and Turkish policies regarding the culture of living togetherThis article aims to determine the level of social acceptance towards Syrians within the context of cohabitation culture by evaluating EU’s legal structure and public service initiatives in order to prevent Syrian refugees from being excluded in member and candidate countries and by revealing government policies on acceptance of Syrians as “guest” by Turkish society and minimizing the exclusion risks of them. This article consists of two main parts, one of which is based on the effects of law and practices preventing refugees and asylum seekers from social exclusion, and the other is on the results of social perception on Syrians in Sultanbeyli district of Istanbul. At the end of 5-years taking in Syrian War, it is obvious that most of more than 3 million Syrian with unregistered ones in Turkey are “here to stay”. From this point of view, the primary scope of policies should be specified in order to remove side effects of refugee phenomenon seen as weighty matter by bottoming out the exclusion towards those people. To avoid possible large-scale conflicts or civil wars in the future, the struggle with exclusion phenomenon plays a crucial role regarding Turkey’s sociological situation and developing policies. In the meaning of forming a model for Turkey, a subtitle in this article is about public services for European-wide legal acquis and practices carried out since 1970s in order to prevent any exclusion from the society. On the other hand, other subtitles are about legal infrastructure and practices like Common European Asylum and Immigration Policies presented in 2005, and Law on Foreigners and International Protection introduced in 2013. In the last part of the article, the results of a field survey carried out in a district of Istanbul were used to analyze the exclusion towards refugees in Turkey. A face-to-face survey was randomly conducted with 200 settled refugees in Sultanbeyli district of Istanbul, and their perceptions towards Syrian people under temporary protection were evaluated. According to the results, the level of acceptance for Syrians living in this district seems relatively high. The fact that Turkish people living in the same district feel close to Syrian refugees culturally and religiously affect their perception in a positive way: however, it is strikingly seen and understood that local residents cop an attitude on the refugees’ becoming Turkish citizens.

Evolution of Metastable Structures in Bimetallic Catalysts from Microscopy and Machine-Learning Molecular Dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Soo Lim ◽  
Jonathan Vandermause ◽  
Matthijs A. van Spronsen ◽  
Albert Musaelian ◽  
Christopher R. O’Connor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Molecular Dynamics ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Materials Science ◽  
Complete Characterization ◽  
Layer By Layer ◽  
Surface Restructuring ◽  
Metastable Structures ◽  
Mechanistic Investigation ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms

Restructuring of interface plays a crucial role in materials science and heterogeneous catalysis. Bimetallic systems, in particular, often adopt very different composition and morphology at surfaces compared to the bulk. For the first time, we reveal a detailed atomistic picture of the long-timescale restructuring of Pd deposited on Ag, using microscopy, spectroscopy, and novel simulation methods. Encapsulation of Pd by Ag always precedes layer-by-layer dissolution of Pd, resulting in significant Ag migration out of the surface and extensive vacancy pits. These metastable structures are of vital catalytic importance, as Ag-encapsulated Pd remains much more accessible to reactants than bulk-dissolved Pd. The underlying mechanisms are uncovered by performing fast and large-scale machine-learning molecular dynamics, followed by our newly developed method for complete characterization of atomic surface restructuring events. Our approach is broadly applicable to other multimetallic systems of interest and enables the previously impractical mechanistic investigation of restructuring dynamics.

Inflammatory Biomarkers in Atrial Fibrillation

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 837-854 ◽  
Author(s):  
Effimia Zacharia ◽  
Nikolaos Papageorgiou ◽  
Adam Ioannou ◽  
Gerasimos Siasos ◽  
Spyridon Papaioannou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Plasma Levels ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Inflammatory Biomarkers ◽  
Inflammatory Pathways ◽  
Inflammatory State ◽  
Anti Inflammatory ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms

During the last few years, a significant number of studies have attempted to clarify the underlying mechanisms that lead to the presentation of atrial fibrillation (AF). Inflammation is a key component of the pathophysiological processes that lead to the development of AF; the amplification of inflammatory pathways triggers AF, and, in tandem, AF increases the inflammatory state. Indeed, the plasma levels of several inflammatory biomarkers are elevated in patients with AF. In addition, the levels of specific inflammatory biomarkers may provide information regarding to the AF duration. Several small studies have assessed the role of anti-inflammatory treatment in atrial fibrillation but the results have been contradictory. Large-scale studies are needed to evaluate the role of inflammation in AF and whether anti-inflammatory medications should be routinely administered to patients with AF.

scholarly journals Correcting Citizens’ Misperceptions about non-Western Immigrants: Corrective Information, Interpretations, and Policy Opinions

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frederik Juhl Jørgensen ◽  
Mathias Osmundsen
Keyword(s):  
Immigration Policy ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Survey Experiment ◽  
Correct Information ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Large Scale Survey ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Information Change ◽  
Corrective Information

Abstract Can corrective information change citizens’ misperceptions about immigrants and subsequently lead to favorable immigration opinions? While prior studies from the USA document how corrections about the size of minority populations fail to change citizens’ immigration-related opinions, they do not examine how other facts that speak to immigrants’ cultural or economic dependency rates can influence immigration policy opinions. To extend earlier work, we conducted a large-scale survey experiment fielded to a nationally representative sample of Danes. We randomly expose participants to information about non-Western immigrants’ (1) welfare dependency rate, (2) crime rate, and (3) proportion of the total population. We find that participants update their factual beliefs in light of correct information, but reinterpret the information in a highly selective fashion, ultimately failing to change their policy preferences.

scholarly journals On the structural connectivity of large-scale models of brain networks at cellular level

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Giuseppe Giacopelli ◽  
Domenico Tegolo ◽  
Emiliano Spera ◽  
Michele Migliore
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Brain Networks ◽  
Structural Connectivity ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Brain Regions ◽  
Cellular Level ◽  
Scale Model ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Experimental Findings

AbstractThe brain’s structural connectivity plays a fundamental role in determining how neuron networks generate, process, and transfer information within and between brain regions. The underlying mechanisms are extremely difficult to study experimentally and, in many cases, large-scale model networks are of great help. However, the implementation of these models relies on experimental findings that are often sparse and limited. Their predicting power ultimately depends on how closely a model’s connectivity represents the real system. Here we argue that the data-driven probabilistic rules, widely used to build neuronal network models, may not be appropriate to represent the dynamics of the corresponding biological system. To solve this problem, we propose to use a new mathematical framework able to use sparse and limited experimental data to quantitatively reproduce the structural connectivity of biological brain networks at cellular level.

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