Candidate Preference, State Context, and Voter Turnout: Comparing Non-Voters and Voters in the 2016 Presidential Election

The Forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 203-227
Author(s):  
Vladimir E. Medenica ◽  
Matthew Fowler
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Contextual Variation ◽  
Candidate Preference ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior ◽  
Future Work ◽  
State Context

Abstract While much attention has been paid to understanding the drivers of support for Donald Trump, less focus has been placed on understanding the factors that led individuals to turn out and vote or stay home. This paper compares non-voters and voters in the 2016 election and explores how self-reported candidate preference prior to the election predicted turnout across three different state contexts: (1) all states, (2) closely contested states won by Trump, and (3) closely contested states won by Clinton. We find that preference for both candidates predicted turnout in the aggregate (all states) and in closely contested states won by Clinton, but only preference for Trump predicted turnout in the closely contested states won by Trump. Moreover, we find that political interest is negatively associated with preference for Clinton when examining candidate preferences among non-voters. Our analysis suggests that non-voters in the 2016 election held meaningful candidate preferences that impacted voter turnout but that state context played an important role in this relationship. This study sheds light on an understudied component of the 2016 election, the attitudes and behavior of non-voters, as well as points to the importance of incorporating contextual variation in future work on electoral behavior and voter turnout.

Who Wants to Make America Great Again? Understanding Evangelical Support for Donald Trump

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-118 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michele F. Margolis
Keyword(s):  
Public Opinion ◽  
The United States ◽  
Electoral Behavior ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Conservative Politics ◽  
United States Today ◽  
Electoral Support ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
White Evangelicals ◽  
Definition Of

AbstractWhite evangelicals overwhelmingly supported Donald Trump in the 2016 election, producing extensive debate as to who evangelicals are, what it means to be an evangelical in the United States today, and whether the electoral results are surprising or not. This paper offers empirical clarity to this protracted discussion by asking and answering a series of questions related to Trump's victory in general and his support from white evangelicals in particular. In doing so, the analyses show that the term “evangelical” has not become a synonym for conservative politics and that white evangelical support for Trump would be higher if public opinion scholars used a belief-centered definition of evangelicalism rather than relying on the more common classification strategies based on self-identification or religious denomination. These findings go against claims that nominal evangelicals, those who call themselves evangelicals but are not religious, make up the core of Trump's support base. Moreover, strong electoral support among devout evangelicals is not unique to the 2016 election but rather is part of a broader trend of evangelical electoral behavior, even when faced with non-traditional Republican candidates. Finally, the paper explores why white evangelicals might support a candidate like Trump. The paper presents evidence that negative partisanship helps explain why devout evangelicals—despite Trump's background and behaviors being cause for concern—coalesced around his presidential bid. Together, the findings from this paper help make sense of both the 2016 presidential election and evangelical public opinion, both separately and together.

scholarly journals America First populism, social volatility, and self-reported arrests

2020 ◽  
Vol 117 (43) ◽  
pp. 26703-26709
Author(s):  
Ron Levi ◽  
Ioana Sendroiu ◽  
John Hagan
Keyword(s):  
Criminal Behavior ◽  
Multilevel Models ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Social Boundaries ◽  
Rapid Social Change ◽  
The Social ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior ◽  
The Relationship

Despite research on the causes of populism and on the narratives of populist leaders, there is little empirical work on the relationship between populist attitudes and behavior, notably including criminal behavior. Our overarching concern is the recurrent social volatility of metaphorical populist themes that are central to impactful political messaging. Drawing on a national United States survey conducted around the 2016 election, we use multilevel models to show that the politically charged exclusionary boundaries of “America First” populism are behaviorally connected to increased odds of having been arrested. We argue that the rapid redrawing of social boundaries that make up populist attitudes is closely connected with the effects of economic and political frustrations during times of rapid social change. In the process, we develop a behavioral analysis of the social volatility of the recurrent populist movement in America.

Political psychophysiology

2020 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-117
Author(s):  
Jaime E. Settle ◽  
Matthew V. Hibbing ◽  
Nicolas M. Anspach ◽  
Taylor N. Carlson ◽  
Chelsea M. Coe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Peer Review Process ◽  
Open Science ◽  
Physiological Data ◽  
Start Up ◽  
Biological Concepts ◽  
Science Labs ◽  
Science Framework ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior ◽  
Future Work

AbstractThe past decade has seen a rapid increase in the number of studies employing psychophysiological methods to explain variation in political attitudes and behavior. However, the collection, analysis, and interpretation of physiological data present novel challenges for political scientists unfamiliar with the underlying biological concepts and technical skills necessary for utilizing this approach. Our objective in this article is to maximize the effectiveness of future work utilizing psychophysiological measurement by providing guidance on how the techniques can be employed most fruitfully as a complement to, not a replacement for, existing methods. We develop clear, step-by-step instructions for how physiological research should be conducted and provide a discussion of the issues commonly faced by scholars working with these measures. Our hope is that this article will be a useful resource for both neophytes and experienced scholars in lowering the start-up costs to doing this work and assessing it as part of the peer review process. More broadly, in the spirit of the open science framework, we aim to foster increased communication, collaboration, and replication of findings across political science labs utilizing psychophysiological methods.

Háblame de tí: Latino mobilization, group dynamics and issue prioritization in the 2020 Election

The Forum ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Angela X. Ocampo ◽  
Sergio I. Garcia-Rios ◽  
Angela E. Gutierrez
Keyword(s):  
Political Parties ◽  
Global Health ◽  
Group Dynamics ◽  
Community Organizations ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Latino Community ◽  
Candidate Preference ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Shed Light

Abstract What motivated Latinos to turnout in 2020 in the middle of a global health pandemic that has devastated their community financially, physically and mentally? How might we explain Latino support for each one of the Presidential candidates in the context of these crises? In this paper, we tackle these questions through an investigation of the factors that drove Latino turnout in 2020 and what might explain Latino favorability for Joe Biden and Donald Trump. To contextualize these findings, we compare these results to the 2016 election. We find that the most predictive factors of Latino turnout in 2020 were perceived group discrimination and mobilization efforts by campaigns and other organizations. We also find that Latino candidate preference in 2020 can be best explained by issue prioritization. Latinos for whom the economy was the most important issue were more likely to support Donald Trump. However, Latinos for whom COVID-19 and racism towards the Latino community were the top pressing political priorities were more likely to favor Joe Biden. These findings continue to shed light on the diversity and heterogeneity of the Latino vote and speak to the significance of outreach efforts by political parties, candidates and community organizations.

Understanding the Stories of Presidential Candidates: A Comparison Between the Stories of 2012 and 2016

2017 ◽  
Vol 61 (9) ◽  
pp. 1024-1039 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kenneth J. Levine
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Elections ◽  
The United States ◽  
Hillary Clinton ◽  
Popular Vote ◽  
Donald Trump ◽  
Presidential Candidates ◽  
Candidate Preference ◽  
2016 Election ◽  
Mitt Romney ◽  
2012 Election

To be elected President of the United States, a candidate must create a story that both resonates with and persuades the electorate. Gardner suggested that “leaders achieve their effectiveness chiefly through the stories they relate” and that there are three types of leadership stories: Ordinary, Innovative and Visionary. The differences between the 2012 and 2016 U.S. Presidential elections are extreme. As the 2016 election was one of unusual and unexpected moments as compared with the more tame and typical election in 2012, this study compared the stories of Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump with those of the 2012 election between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. Results from the 2012 election found that Romney’s story fit into the category of Ordinary leader, while Obama’s story was one attributed to an Innovative leader. T tests found large and significant differences between candidate preference and story credibility and whether the stories motivated the respondents to vote. However, for the 2016 election, both candidates had innovative stories, and this may explain how one candidate won the popular vote, while the other received the majority of electoral votes.

Using Binding Communication to Promote Conservation Among Hotel Guests

2015 ◽  
Vol 74 (3) ◽  
pp. 169-175 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lohyd Terrier ◽  
Benedicte Marfaing
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Communication Model ◽  
Classical Communication ◽  
Persuasive Message ◽  
Sustainable Behavior ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior

This research applies the binding communication model to the sustainable communication strategies implemented in most hotels. The binding communication model links a persuasive message with the implementation of a low-cost commitment to strengthen the link between the attitudes and behavior of those receiving the message. We compared the effectiveness of a classical communication strategy (n = 86) with that of a binding communication strategy (n = 101) to encourage guests to choose sustainable behavior. Our results show that using the binding communication strategy generates significantly more sustainable behavior in guests than using the classical communication strategy. We discuss our results and suggest future avenues of research.

Risk Attitudes and Behavior Among Norwegian Adolescents

2005 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilde Iversen ◽  
Torbjørn Rundmo ◽  
Hroar Klempe
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Traffic Safety ◽  
Behavior Modification ◽  
Health Programs ◽  
Risk Attitudes ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Public Health Programs ◽  
The Core ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior

Abstract. The core aim of the present study is to compare the effects of a safety campaign and a behavior modification program on traffic safety. As is the case in community-based health promotion, the present study's approach of the attitude campaign was based on active participation of the group of recipients. One of the reasons why many attitude campaigns conducted previously have failed may be that they have been society-based public health programs. Both the interventions were carried out simultaneously among students aged 18-19 years in two Norwegian high schools (n = 342). At the first high school the intervention was behavior modification, at the second school a community-based attitude campaign was carried out. Baseline and posttest data on attitudes toward traffic safety and self-reported risk behavior were collected. The results showed that there was a significant total effect of the interventions although the effect depended on the type of intervention. There were significant differences in attitude and behavior only in the sample where the attitude campaign was carried out and no significant changes were found in the group of recipients of behavior modification.

If I Had Something to Add, I Would

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 86-96
Author(s):  
Isaac A. Lindquist ◽  
Emily E. Adams ◽  
Joseph A. Allen
Keyword(s):  
Job Attitudes ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
Meeting Effectiveness ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
Attitudes And Behavior

Abstract. Most employees participate in workplace meetings, and their experiences in meetings can vary greatly, which can lead to positive or negative effects on both job attitudes and behavior. In this study, we examined the effect that a meeting attendee’s competence in the meeting topic had on their participation in the meeting and their perception of meeting effectiveness. Results indicated those with higher levels of competence in the meeting topic were more likely to participate and through participation found their meeting more effective; this relationship was stronger when employee dissent in the meetings was high. Leaders should ensure that those who are present in a meeting are competent in the topic of the meeting and encourage them to participate.

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