Pandemic management by a spatio–temporal mathematical model

2021 ◽  
Vol 0 (0) ◽  
Author(s):  
Teddy Lazebnik ◽  
Svetlana Bunimovich-Mendrazitsky ◽  
Labib Shami
Keyword(s):  
Point Of View ◽  
Population Heterogeneity ◽  
Epidemic Outbreak ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Time Dynamics ◽  
Source Program ◽  
Average Mean Square Error ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Severity Of The Disease ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Many researchers have tried to predict the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak on morbidity, in order to help policy-makers find optimal isolation policies. However, despite the development and use of many models and sophisticated tools, these forecasting attempts have largely failed. We present a model that considers the severity of the disease and the heterogeneity of contacts between the population in complex space–time dynamics. Using mathematical and computational methods, the applied tool was developed to analyze and manage the COVID-19 pandemic (from an epidemiological point of view), with a particular focus on population heterogeneity in terms of age, susceptibility, and symptom severity. We show improved strategies to prevent an epidemic outbreak. We evaluated the model in three countries, obtaining an average mean square error of 0.067 over a full month of the basic reproduction number (R 0). The goal of this study is to create a theoretical framework for crisis management that integrates accumulated epidemiological considerations. An applied result is an open-source program for predicting the outcome of an isolation strategy for future researchers and developers who can use and extend our model.

scholarly journals Innovation and sustainability: the Italian scenario

2021 ◽  
pp. 71-76
Author(s):  
Rosanna Cataldo ◽  
Maria Gabriella Grassia ◽  
Paolo Mazzocchi ◽  
Claudio Quintano ◽  
Antonella Rocca
Keyword(s):  
Research Question ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Sustainable Innovation ◽  
Relevant Topic ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
Process Solutions ◽  
The Impact

Society and policy makers demand innovation systems oriented towards several goals of sustainable development. Therefore, recent literature has dedicated a growing interest to both innovation and sustainability in the pursuit of environmental, economic and social development; in addition, the emerging topic of ‘sustainable innovation’ (and ‘eco-innovation’) seems to combine the main features of them. The definition of these concepts has been significantly changed during the last decades, and a broad discussion continues today about which indicators should be used to measure innovation, sustainability and their combination. The current paper investigates this relationship, and - in the authors’ opinion - the research question connected to the impact of the innovative product (and service and process) solutions on sustainability can be addressed by means of a stable theoretical framework. To study the interaction between innovation and sustainability, the usage of specific territorial features might represent a useful perspective to manage short-and long-term environmental and economic issues. As for the theoretical model, the present article considers a specific technique suitable for investigating the entire set of characteristics involved in the model. From a public makers and managerial point of view, the possibility of improving the firm’ efficiencies in terms of several dimensions of sustainable innovation represents a relevant topic that must be encouraged.

Spatio Temporal Variability of Rainfall Across Western Libya from 1979 to 2009

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 235-244
Author(s):  
Ali Salem Eddenjal
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Annual Scale ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
The Impact

Aims: To understand the links between climate variability and hydrology in western Libya. Background: This study represents the first comprehensive assessment of rainfall variability in western Libya at a regional scale. Objective: To assess temporal and spatial variability of rainfall in western Libya, based on data (1979-2009) from 16 rain gauges. Methods: The non-parametric Mann-Kendall method and Sen’s slop estimator were used to define changes in rainfall series and their statistical significance. Results: Coastal and mountainous time series showed decreasing trends at the annual, autumn, and spring scales, with very few exceptions. Notably, winter showed increasing trends, with the significant values of 1.94 and 0.88 mm/year at Sirt and Nalut, respectively. Desert stations showed increasing trends, especially at the annual scale, with the greatest significant increase on the order of 1.19 mm/year in Ghadames. For the regional rainfall trend analysis, annual, spring and autumn rainfalls decreased in the coastal and mountainous zones, with the highest significant decrease of 1.94 mm/year. Again, winter rainfall showed increasing trend over the whole study domain. Conclusion: Although most time series showed a tendency towards more drier conditions, most of the detected trends were statistically non-significant. This study will provide guidance for policy makers in their future planning to mitigate the impact of drought.

Fiskalischer Föderalismus und Staatstätigkeit

2003 ◽  
Vol 52 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Christoph A. Schaltegger
Keyword(s):  
Economies Of Scale ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Theoretical Point ◽  
Size Of Government ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Voter Preferences ◽  
Swiss Cantons ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

AbstractWhat is the impact of federalism on the size of government? On the one hand, various externalities and unexploited economies of scale caused by federalist institutions favour a larger size of government. On the other hand, some authors argue that federalism represents an institutional barrier for policy makers eventually restricting their policy discretion to deviate from voter preferences. Consequently, the net effect of federalism is open from a theoretical point of view. This paper evaluates the different aspects of federalism empirically for Swiss cantons with a panel of annual data from 1980 to 1998. The results indicate that federalism in Switzerland rather favours a smaller size of government.

scholarly journals Problematika Moralitas Anak pada Masa Pandemi Covid-19 Perspektif Immanuel Kant: Studi Kasus Di Kampung Cikaso Desa Sukamukti Kecamatan Cisompet Kabupaten Garut

2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 240-259
Author(s):  
Yeni Wahyuni
Keyword(s):  
Immanuel Kant ◽  
Character Education ◽  
Moral Philosophy ◽  
Health Sector ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Hypothetical Imperative ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Research Show

The purpose of this study was to analyze the problems of children's morality during the Covid-19 pandemic from the perspective of Immanuel Kant. This research is a qualitative research using descriptive methods of phenomenology and moral philosophy for a case study in Cikaso Village, Sukamukti Village, Cisompet District, Garut Regency. The findings in this research show that the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic does not only affect the health sector, but the education sector is also affected where character education and morality of children receive less attention from the policy makers. As for the point of view of Immanuel Kant's moral philosophy, explaining that morality is divided into two parts, namely hypothetical imperatives and categorical imperatives. This study concludes that the morality of children in Cikaso Village is mostly included in the hypothetical imperative. This study recommends for further and in-depth research on studies of morality, especially in the perspective of Immanuel Kant.

Neural Networks and Equilibria, Synchronization, and Time Lags

2011 ◽  
pp. 1219-1225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniela Danciu ◽  
Vladimir Rasvan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Dynamical System ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Forced Oscillations ◽  
Time Lags ◽  
A Posteriori ◽  
Time Dynamics ◽  
The Neural Network ◽  
Spatio Temporal

All neural networks, both natural and artificial, are characterized by two kinds of dynamics. The first one is concerned with what we would call “learning dynamics”, in fact the sequential (discrete time) dynamics of the choice of synaptic weights. The second one is the intrinsic dynamics of the neural network viewed as a dynamical system after the weights have been established via learning. Regarding the second dynamics, the emergent computational capabilities of a recurrent neural network can be achieved provided it has many equilibria. The network task is achieved provided it approaches these equilibria. But the dynamical system has a dynamics induced a posteriori by the learning process that had established the synaptic weights. It is not compulsory that this a posteriori dynamics should have the required properties, hence they have to be checked separately. The standard stability properties (Lyapunov, asymptotic and exponential stability) are defined for a single equilibrium. Their counterpart for several equilibria are: mutability, global asymptotics, gradient behavior. For the definitions of these general concepts the reader is sent to Gelig et. al., (1978), Leonov et. al., (1992). In the last decades, the number of recurrent neural networks’ applications increased, they being designed for classification, identification and complex image, visual and spatio-temporal processing in fields as engineering, chemistry, biology and medicine (see, for instance: Fortuna et. al., 2001; Fink, 2004; Atencia et. al., 2004; Iwahori et. al., 2005; Maurer et. al., 2005; Guirguis & Ghoneimy, 2007). All these applications are mainly based on the existence of several equilibria for such networks, requiring them the “good behavior” properties above discussed. Another aspect of the qualitative analysis is the so-called synchronization problem, when an external stimulus, in most cases periodic or almost periodic has to be tracked (Gelig, 1982; Danciu, 2002). This problem is, from the mathematical point of view, nothing more but existence, uniqueness and global stability of forced oscillations.

The Geosciences Applied to Lunar Exploration

1962 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 169-257 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Green
Keyword(s):  
Lunar Surface ◽  
Probable Mechanism ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Lunar Exploration ◽  
Geological Model ◽  
Apply Geophysics ◽  
Surface Features ◽  
The Impact

The term geo-sciences has been used here to include the disciplines geology, geophysics and geochemistry. However, in order to apply geophysics and geochemistry effectively one must begin with a geological model. Therefore, the science of geology should be used as the basis for lunar exploration. From an astronomical point of view, a lunar terrain heavily impacted with meteors appears the more reasonable; although from a geological standpoint, volcanism seems the more probable mechanism. A surface liberally marked with volcanic features has been advocated by such geologists as Bülow, Dana, Suess, von Wolff, Shaler, Spurr, and Kuno. In this paper, both the impact and volcanic hypotheses are considered in the application of the geo-sciences to manned lunar exploration. However, more emphasis is placed on the volcanic, or more correctly the defluidization, hypothesis to account for lunar surface features.

Markets for Purchased Farm Inputs

2005 ◽  
pp. 60-71
Author(s):  
E. Serova ◽  
O. Shick
Keyword(s):  
Agricultural Policy ◽  
Financial Constraints ◽  
Information Sources ◽  
Animal Feed ◽  
Government Policies ◽  
Market Institutions ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Government Organizations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Farm Inputs

Russian policy makers argue that agriculture suffers from decapitalization due to financial constraints faced by producers. This view is the basis for the national agricultural policy, which emphasizes reimbursement of input costs and substitutes government and quasi-government organizations for missing market institutions. The article evaluates the availability of purchased farm inputs, the efficiency of their use, the main problems in the emergence of market institutions, and the impact of government policies. The analysis focuses on five groups of purchased inputs: farm machinery, fertilizers, fuel, seeds, and animal feed. The information sources include official statistics and data from two original surveys.

МАРКЕТИНГОВІ АСПЕКТИ ФУНКЦІОНУВАННЯ ЛІТЕРАТУРНИХ КОНКУРСІВ ТА ПРЕМІЙ

2020 ◽  
pp. 90
Author(s):  
O. Bondar
Keyword(s):  
Publishing House ◽  
Target Audience ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Information Support ◽  
Literary Field ◽  
Non Profit ◽  
Functional Aspects ◽  
The Media ◽  
Literary Prizes ◽  
The Impact

<p><em>In this study, I have collected and summarized the functional aspects of a literary prize, contest, and rating, which indicate their affiliation with the marketing complex of the publishing house for the first time. For this purpose, I have analyzed and summarized the common concepts of the functioning of literary prizes and contests as advertising tools for publishing activity. Because the previous studies are only focused on the fact of the impact of the prize on the promotion of editions but do not explain it, these aspects have been considered and introduced by me from the book production’s point of view. I investigated that the prizes and the contests in the literary field are effective marketing tools, which meet many publisher’s needs at the same time and can be considered a non-profit form of capital. I have reviewed the works of other authors, who accept that the economic success of the book is rising if the author is a winner of the literary prize or contest. I have found out that the book prize activates the demand for the book, and the literary contest is a tool to track the reader’s reaction to a future publication. In this way, literary prizes and contests can be considered as a way of conducting a marketing dialogue with the target audience. I have focused on the information support of literary national and international prizes and contests by the media, which attracts attention to the book and forms the reader’s interest. The literary prizes and contests are also considered as a way of exploring trends and their changes, familiarization the popular genres among the target audience and fixation the current choice of modern readers. Literary prizes and contests motivate the authors to improve their literary excellence, are the source of new authors and works, and assist in increasing sales of books. However, further research is recommended.</em></p><strong><em>Key words:</em></strong><em> book prize, book rating, literary contest, literary prize, functions of the literary prizes.</em>

Managing Service Quality, Food Quality, Price Fairness and Customer Retention: A Holistic Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-5
Author(s):  
Ammar Ahmed ◽  
Rafat Naseer ◽  
Muhammad Asadullah ◽  
Hadia Khan
Keyword(s):  
Service Quality ◽  
Food Quality ◽  
Service Sector ◽  
Customer Retention ◽  
Price Fairness ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Restaurant Management ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Research Propositions ◽  
The Impact

In this competitive environment, organizations strive to satisfy their customer by providing best quality service at affordable and fair prices with a view to enhance their revenues. To achieve the objective of revenue maximization, organizations strive to identify the factors that help them in retaining their customers. Drawing from the signalling theory of marketing, the current study proposes a novel conceptual model representing the impact of service quality with food quality and price fairness on customer retention in restaurant sector of Pakistan. The paper underlines an important arena of knowledge for academicians as well as organizational scientists on the subject. On the basis of literature available on the variables understudy, the present study forwards eight research propositions worthy of urgent scholarly attention. The conceptualized model of the present article can also be viewed significant in unleashing further avenues for the restaurant management entities, policy makers and future researchers in the domain of managing in the service sector businesses.

Materialism and Green Purchase Intention: A Study of Urban Vietnamese Consumers

2017 ◽  
pp. 89-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mai Nguyen Thi Tuyet ◽  
Hung Nguyen Vu ◽  
Linh Nguyen Hoang ◽  
Minh Nguyen Hoang
Keyword(s):  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Survey Data ◽  
Purchase Intention ◽  
Behavioral Control ◽  
Subjective Norm ◽  
Perceived Behavioral Control ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Tpb Model ◽  
Research Findings ◽  
The Impact

This study focuses on examining the impact of three components of materialism on green purchase intention for urban consumers in Vietnam, an emerging economy. An extended Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) is applied as the conceptual framework for this study. The hypotheses are empirically tested using survey data obtained from consumers in Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam. The regression results show support for most of our hypotheses. The findings indicate that two out of three facets of materialism are significant predictors of green purchase intention. Specifically, success is found to be negatively related to purchase intention, while happiness is related positively to the intention. All three antecedents in the TPB model, including attitude towards green purchase, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control are also found to have positive impacts on purchase intention. The research findings are discussed and implications for managers and policy makers are provided.

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