Distribution Matters: Sensitivity of Gridded Data of Population and Economic Conditions to Global Water Scarcity Assessment

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Prakat Modi ◽  
Naota Hanasaki ◽  
Dai Yamazaki ◽  
Julien Boulange ◽  
Taikan Oki
Keyword(s):  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Gridded Data ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Urban Concentration ◽  
Water Scarce ◽  
Global Water

Abstract Availability of water per capita is among the most fundamental water-scarcity indicators and has been used extensively in global grid-based water resources assessments. Recently, it has been extended to include the economic aspect, a proxy of the capability for water management. We applied the extended index globally under SSP–RCP scenarios using gridded population and economic conditions from two independent sources and unexpectedly found that the gridded data were significantly sensitive to global water-scarcity assessment. One projection assumed urban concentration of population and assets, whereas the other assumed dispersion. In analyses using multiple SSP–RCP scenarios representing a world of sustainability (SSP1–RCP2.6), regional rivalry (SSP3–RCP7.0), and fossil fuel development (SSP5–RCP8.5) in the future, multiple GCMs, and two gridded datasets showed that the water-scarce population ranges from 0.32–665 million. Uncertainties in the SSP–RCP and GCM scenarios were 6.58–489 million and 0.68–315 million, respectively. The population distribution assumption had a similar impact, with an uncertainty of 169–338 million. These results highlight the importance of the subregional distribution of socioeconomic factors for predicting the future global environment.

Water Scarcity and Conflict Between Upstream and Downstream Riparian Countries

2021 ◽  
Vol 07 (03) ◽  
pp. 2150012
Author(s):  
Sahar Farid Yousef
Keyword(s):  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Allocation ◽  
Allocation Problem ◽  
The Other ◽  
Backward Induction ◽  
Transboundary River ◽  
Militarized Conflicts ◽  
The Future ◽  
Water Scarce

More than one-quarter of the world’s population lives in water-scarce areas, while most countries share at least one transboundary river. If water scarcity is this prevalent, should we expect riparian countries to fight over the water allocation of shared rivers? To answer this question, I develop a modified one-shot three-stage river-sharing game where countries can resort to force to solve their water allocation problem. Using backward induction, I solve for the probability of the downstream country initiating conflict against the upstream country and the likelihood of the latter responding with force to the former’s hostile actions. I test the model empirically using a set of all upstream–downstream riparian dyads with available data from AQUASTAT and the Correlates of War Project for the years 1960–2010. The main contribution of this paper is that it demonstrates how upstream and downstream riparian countries differ in their decision to use force against the other country when experiencing water scarcity. I find that water scarcity increases the likelihood of the downstream country initiating the conflict, but it has no effect on the upstream country’s likelihood of responding with force. If history is a predictor of the future, then the results imply that as more riparian countries become water-scarce, militarized conflicts between upstream and downstream countries are likely to increase, especially if there is heterogeneity in water availability between the riparian dyad.

scholarly journals Characterizing Hydrological Drought and Water Scarcity Changes in the Future: A Case Study in the Jinghe River Basin of China

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (6) ◽  
pp. 1605
Author(s):  
Chaoxing Sun ◽  
Xiong Zhou
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Hydrological Drought ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The Future ◽  
Jinghe River Basin ◽  
Jinghe River

The assessment of future climate changes on drought and water scarcity is extremely important for water resources management. A modeling system is developed to study the potential status of hydrological drought and water scarcity in the future, and this modeling system is applied to the Jinghe River Basin (JRB) of China. Driven by high-resolution climate projections from the Regional Climate Modeling System (RegCM), the Variable Infiltration Capacity model is employed to produce future streamflow projections (2020–2099) under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The copula-based method is applied to identify the correlation between drought variables (i.e., duration and severity), and to further quantify their joint risks. Based on a variety of hypothetical water use scenarios in the future, the water scarcity conditions including extreme cases are estimated through the Water Exploitation Index Plus (WEI+) indicator. The results indicate that the joint risks of drought variables at different return periods would decrease. In detail, the severity of future drought events would become less serious under different RCP scenarios when compared with that in the historical period. However, considering the increase in water consumption in the future, the water scarcity in JRB may not be alleviated in the future, and thus drought assessment alone may underestimate the severity of future water shortage. The results obtained from the modeling system can help policy makers to develop reasonable future water-saving planning schemes, as well as drought mitigation measures.

Alkohol im Tank – Bio-Kraftstoffe und die Grenzen moderner Mobilität

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (136) ◽  
pp. 455-468
Author(s):  
Hartwig Berger
Keyword(s):  
Third World ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
The Third ◽  
Political Conflicts ◽  
The Future ◽  
Long Time ◽  
Food Market ◽  
The One ◽  
The Third World

The article discusses the future of mobility in the light of energy resources. Fossil fuel will not be available for a long time - not to mention its growing environmental and political conflicts. In analysing the potential of biofuel it is argued that the high demands of modern mobility can hardly be fulfilled in the future. Furthermore, the change into using biofuel will probably lead to increasing conflicts between the fuel market and the food market, as well as to conflicts with regional agricultural networks in the third world. Petrol imperialism might be replaced by bio imperialism. Therefore, mobility on a solar base pursues a double strategy of raising efficiency on the one hand and strongly reducing mobility itself on the other.

scholarly journals Photocatalytic-Fenton Process under Simulated Solar Radiation Promoted by a Suitable Catalyst Selection

Catalysts ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 885
Author(s):  
Aida M. Díez ◽  
Helen E. Valencia ◽  
Maria Meledina ◽  
Joachim Mayer ◽  
Yury V. Kolen'ko
Keyword(s):  
Methylene Blue ◽  
Solar Radiation ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Published Data ◽  
Fenton Process ◽  
Optimal Conditions ◽  
Operational Conditions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Simulated Solar Radiation ◽  
Catalyst Selection

Considering water scarcity, photo-based processes have been presented as a depollution technique, which should be optimized in order to be applied in the future. For that, the addition of an active photocatalyst and the usage of solar radiation are mandatory steps. Thus, Fe3O4–SiO2–TiO2 was synthesized, and its performance was evaluated using simulated solar radiation and methylene blue as a model pollutant. Under optimal conditions, 86% degradation was attained in 1 h. These results were compared to recent published data, and the better performance can be attributed to both the operational conditions selection and the higher photocatalyst activity. Indeed, Fe3O4–SiO2–TiO2 was physico-chemically characterized with techniques such as XRD, N2 isotherms, spectrophotometry, FTIR, electrochemical assays and TEM.

scholarly journals Integrated assessment of global water scarcity over the 21st century under multiple climate change mitigation policies

2014 ◽  
Vol 18 (8) ◽  
pp. 2859-2883 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. I. Hejazi ◽  
J. Edmonds ◽  
L. Clarke ◽  
P. Kyle ◽  
E. Davies ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Carbon Tax ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Baseline Scenario ◽  
Water Demands ◽  
Global Water ◽  
Mitigation Policies

Abstract. Water scarcity conditions over the 21st century both globally and regionally are assessed in the context of climate change and climate mitigation policies, by estimating both water availability and water demand within the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), a leading community-integrated assessment model of energy, agriculture, climate, and water. To quantify changes in future water availability, a new gridded water-balance global hydrologic model – namely, the Global Water Availability Model (GWAM) – is developed and evaluated. Global water demands for six major demand sectors (irrigation, livestock, domestic, electricity generation, primary energy production, and manufacturing) are modeled in GCAM at the regional scale (14 geopolitical regions, 151 sub-regions) and then spatially downscaled to 0.5° × 0.5° resolution to match the scale of GWAM. Using a baseline scenario (i.e., no climate change mitigation policy) with radiative forcing reaching 8.8 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A1Fi emission scenario) and three climate policy scenarios with increasing mitigation stringency of 7.7, 5.5, and 4.2 W m−2 (equivalent to the SRES A2, B2, and B1 emission scenarios, respectively), we investigate the effects of emission mitigation policies on water scarcity. Two carbon tax regimes (a universal carbon tax (UCT) which includes land use change emissions, and a fossil fuel and industrial emissions carbon tax (FFICT) which excludes land use change emissions) are analyzed. The baseline scenario results in more than half of the world population living under extreme water scarcity by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, in years 2050 and 2095, 36% (28%) and 44% (39%) of the global population, respectively, is projected to live in grid cells (in basins) that will experience greater water demands than the amount of available water in a year (i.e., the water scarcity index (WSI) > 1.0). When comparing the climate policy scenarios to the baseline scenario while maintaining the same baseline socioeconomic assumptions, water scarcity declines under a UCT mitigation policy but increases with a FFICT mitigation scenario by the year 2095, particularly with more stringent climate mitigation targets. Under the FFICT scenario, water scarcity is projected to increase, driven by higher water demands for bio-energy crops.

scholarly journals Interbasin water transfer in a changing world: A new conceptual model

2021 ◽  
pp. 030913332110650
Author(s):  
Edward Rollason ◽  
Pammi Sinha ◽  
Louise J Bracken
Keyword(s):  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Conceptual Models ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Water Transfer ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Global Issue ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Interbasin Water Transfer ◽  
Water Scarce

Water scarcity is a global issue, affecting in excess of four billion people. Interbasin Water Transfer (IBWT) is an established method for increasing water supply by transferring excess water from one catchment to another, water-scarce catchment. The implementation of IBWT peaked in the 1980s and was accompanied by a robust academic debate of its impacts. A recent resurgence in the popularity of IBWT, and particularly the promotion of mega-scale schemes, warrants revisiting this technology. This paper provides an updated review, building on previously published work, but also incorporates learning from schemes developed since the 1980s. We examine the spatial and temporal distribution of schemes and their drivers, review the arguments for and against the implementation of IBWT schemes and examine conceptual models for assessing IBWT schemes. Our analysis suggests that IBWT is growing in popularity as a supply-side solution for water scarcity and is likely to represent a key tool for water managers into the future. However, we argue that IBWT cannot continue to be delivered through current approaches, which prioritise water-centric policies and practices at the expense of social and environmental concerns. We critically examine the Socio-Ecological Systems and Water-Energy-Food (WEF) Nexus models as new conceptual models for conceptualising and assessing IBWT. We conclude that neither model offers a comprehensive solution. Instead, we propose an enhanced WEF model (eWEF) to facilitate a more holistic assessment of how these mega-scale engineering interventions are integrated into water management strategies. The proposed model will help water managers, decision-makers, IBWT funders and communities create more sustainable IBWT schemes.

Source Functions of CO2 and Future CO2 Burden in the Atmosphere

1977 ◽  
Vol 32 (12) ◽  
pp. 1544-1554
Author(s):  
K. E. Zimen ◽  
P. Offermann ◽  
G. Hartmann
Keyword(s):  
Fuel Consumption ◽  
Fossil Fuels ◽  
Source Function ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Status Quo ◽  
Growth Coefficient ◽  
Mauna Loa ◽  
Fossil Fuel Consumption ◽  
The Future ◽  
Kinetics Of

Abstract A logistic source function for CO2 was derived which takes into account the input arising from the burning of fossil fuels, the stimulation of photosynthesis by the increasing partial pressure of CO2, and the decrease of biomass through deforestation etc. The parameters in a 5-box-model for the kinetics of CO2 were adjusted to fit the new Mauna Loa data on CO2 concentrations in air. Using these parameters and a buffer factor ξ(t) for the absorption of CO2 into the sea, the future CO2 burden was calculated for status quo conditions and for different values of the growth coefficient of fossil fuel consumption. The results show that one can change the deforestation factor in rather wide limits without changing very much the future CO2 concentration in air during the next 80 years or so (cf. Figure 4). On the other hand, the future C02 burden depends strongly on the growth rate of fossil fuel consumption and will double under status quo conditions early in the next century (cf. Figure 5).

scholarly journals Opportunities for saving and reallocating agricultural water to alleviate water scarcity

Water Policy ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 886-907 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brian D. Richter ◽  
James D. Brown ◽  
Rachel DiBenedetto ◽  
Adrianna Gorsky ◽  
Emily Keenan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Use ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Water Saving ◽  
Internet Survey ◽  
Irrigated Agriculture ◽  
Irrigation Systems ◽  
Water Savings ◽  
Consumptive Water Use ◽  
Water Scarce ◽  
Consumptive Water

As water scarcity worsens globally, there is growing interest in finding ways to reduce water consumption, and for reallocating water savings to other uses including environmental restoration. Because irrigated agriculture is responsible for more than 90% of all consumptive water use in water-scarce regions, much attention is being focused on opportunities to save water on irrigated farms. At the same time, many recent journal articles have expressed concern that claims of water-saving potential in irrigation systems lack technical credibility, or are at least exaggerated, due to failures to properly account for key elements of water budgets such as return flows. Critics have also asserted that opportunities for reallocating irrigation savings to other uses are limited because any freed-up water is taken up by other farmers. A comprehensive literature and internet survey was undertaken to identify well-documented studies of water-saving strategies in irrigated agriculture, as well as a review of case studies in which water savings have been successfully transferred to other uses. Our findings suggest that there is in fact considerable potential to reduce consumptive water use in irrigation systems when proper consideration is given to water budget accounting, and those savings can be beneficially reallocated to other purposes.

Progress in marine derived renewable functional materials and biochar for sustainable water purification

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. M. Manohara ◽  
Sooraj S Nayak ◽  
Gregory Franklin ◽  
Sanna Kotrappanavar Nataraj ◽  
Dibyendu Mondal
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Purification ◽  
Water Scarcity ◽  
Functional Materials ◽  
Inorganic Contaminants ◽  
Population Explosion ◽  
Rapid Industrialization ◽  
Day By Day ◽  
Global Water

Global water scarcity is increasing day-by-day due to population explosion, urbanization and rapid industrialization. Inevitably, surface water is widely contaminated by various hazardous geogenic organic and inorganic contaminants, also from...

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