On the fuzziness of circulation types derived from the application of obliquely rotated principal component analysis to a T-mode climatic field
Abstract This study examined the separability of circulation types (CTs) classified from the application of principal component analysis (PCA) to the T-mode matrix (variable is time series and observation is grid points) of a climatic field that explains atmospheric circulation; in addition to the uncertainty introduced on (i) the probability of occurrence, (ii) the mean shape of the CTs, (iii) the trend in the annual frequency of occurrence, (iv) the frequency distribution of the CTs, by using varying threshold values within the range of 0.2–0.35 to assign days to a given CT. The study region is Africa, south of the equator. Some large clusters were classified with most days in the analysis period assigned to them; these classes are interpreted as the dominant states of the atmosphere and generally, their existence results in the poor separability of the CTs since their features overlap with other CTs. Qualitatively, the choice of the threshold values within the defined range has little or no influence on the overall structure of the probability of occurrence of the CTs, the mean shape of the CTs, and the year-to-year variations in the annual occurrence of the CTs. However, it significantly impacts the frequency distribution of the CTs and the statistical significance of the trend in the annual occurrence of the CTs. Stringent threshold values within the defined range might benefit studies that aim to isolate days when specific CTs are most expressed and analyze their mechanism using composite maps, without focus on the frequency distribution and annual occurrence of the CTs. Overall, for the study region, lower threshold values within the defined range might be recommended since relatively, they do not tend to further constrain the probability of group membership, and equally seem to reveal the mechanisms that might be consistent when a given CT occurred regardless of the strength of its signal at a given time.