Hiv/Aids, Life Expectancy, and the Opportunity Cost Model of Civil War

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler Kustra
2016 ◽  
Vol 61 (10) ◽  
pp. 2130-2157 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tyler Kustra

This article views death in battle as an opportunity cost whose size is determined by the number of years a rebel would have lived as a civilian. As civilian life expectancy declines, this opportunity cost does too, increasing the probability of rebellion. This theory is tested with a tragic natural experiment: the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa. Using male circumcision rates as an instrument for life expectancy, the analysis shows that a one-year increase in life expectancy decreases the probability of civil war by 2.6 percentage points. This supports the theory that opportunity costs are important determinants of conflict onset and that nonpecuniary opportunity costs should be taken into account. This article concludes by noting that cost–benefit analyses of public health interventions should include decreases in the probability of civil war, and the attendant benefits in terms of lives saved and material damage prevented, in their calculations.


2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Steven J. Phillips

AbstractPrior to the Syrian civil war, access and delivery of health care and health care information over the past 4 decades had steadily improved. The life expectancy of the average Syrian in 2012 was 75.7 years, compared to 56 years in 1970. As a result of the civil war, this trend has reversed, with the life expectancy reduced by 20 years from the 2012 level. The Syrian government and its allies have specifically targeted the health care infrastructure not under government control. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:23–25)


2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 336-350 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colin Walch

How do natural disasters affect rebel group recruitment? Some influential research to date suggests that natural disasters – by lowering the opportunity cost of joining an armed movement – are likely to facilitate rebel group recruitment. In contrast, this study argues that natural disasters can negatively affect rebel organization and their recruitment efforts. It posits that natural disasters may weaken rebel groups in two main interrelated ways: (1) by leading to acute scarcity for rebel combatants and supporters, weakening the rebel group’s organizational structure and supply lines, and (2) by increasing government and international presence in areas where the insurgents operate. Empirically, this article explores these suggested mechanisms in two cases of natural disasters in the Philippines (typhoons Bopha in 2012 and Haiyan in 2013), which affected regions partially controlled by the communist rebel group, the New People’s Army (NPA). Based on data from extensive fieldwork, there is no evidence suggesting a boom in rebel recruitment in the wake of the typhoons. Rather, the NPA was temporarily weakened following the tropical storms, significantly impacting the civil war dynamics in the Philippines.


2021 ◽  
pp. 3-24
Author(s):  
Sandro Galea

This chapter discusses how the time of the COVID-19 pandemic was also a time when the world, in many respects, had never been better—or healthier. In a number of key areas—from life expectancy, to declines in poverty, to reductions in preventable diseases like HIV/AIDS—it was, and is, a more favorable time to be alive than any other point in recorded history. All these advances was a byproduct of foundational forces unfolding over time, forces like industrialization, global development, urbanization, and political changes. However, the incidental nature of this success has meant that we have yet to fully acknowledge why it occurred, which hinders our ability to advance it in the future. Why do we need to know how we got here? First, our understanding of the causes of health shapes our investment in health. America's investment in healthcare comes at the expense of their investment in the foundational drivers of health. The second reason is that if we do not understand the true causes of health, we will be unable to build a world that is ready for the next pandemic.


ESC CardioMed ◽  
2018 ◽  
pp. 1200-1204
Author(s):  
Anastase Dzudie ◽  
Friedrich Thienemann

Pulmonary hypertension is a devastating, progressive disease associated with increasingly debilitating symptoms and a poor prognosis due to narrowing of the pulmonary vasculature and consequential right heart failure. The epidemiological profile of pulmonary hypertension across the world is largely unknown. However, recent reports suggest that the incidence in developing countries is higher than in high-income countries due to a higher prevalence of antecedent risk factors and contributory diseases such as human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome (HIV/AIDS) and tuberculosis. HIV/AIDS is a global pandemic affecting approximately 37 million people. When HIV infection is diagnosed early and combination antiretroviral therapy is initiated in time, most patients experience acceptable immune recovery and can reach normal life expectancy. With the decline of HIV-related morbidity and mortality and increased life expectancy, non-HIV-related conditions and HIV-associated cardiovascular disease such as pulmonary hypertension continue to rise in this cohort. This chapter describes the burden, pathogenesis, and impact of combination antiretroviral therapy on HIV-associated pulmonary hypertension.


2013 ◽  
Vol 36 (6) ◽  
pp. 694-695 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilde M. Huizenga ◽  
Maurits W. van der Molen ◽  
Anika Bexkens ◽  
Wery P. M. van den Wildenberg

AbstractThe opportunity cost model (OCM) aims to explain various phenomena, among which the finding that performance degrades if executive functions are used repeatedly (“resource depletion”). We argue that an OCM account of resource depletion requires two unlikely assumptions, and we discuss an alternative that does not require these assumptions. This alternative model describes the interplay between executive function and motivation.


2007 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 357-366
Author(s):  
Johnson Samuel Adari ◽  
Mashaallah Rahnama Moghadam ◽  
Charles N. Starnes

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