Wealth Inequality and the Ergodic Hypothesis: Evidence from the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yonatan Berman ◽  
Ole Peters ◽  
Alexander Adamou
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stationary Distribution ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
Wealth Inequality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Ergodic Hypothesis

Many studies of wealth inequality make the ergodic hypothesis that rescaled wealth converges rapidly to a stationary distribution. Under this assumption, changes in distribution are expressed as changes in model parameters, reflecting shocks in economic conditions, with rapid equilibration thereafter. Here we test the ergodic hypothesis in an established model of wealth in a growing and reallocating economy. We fit model parameters to historical data from the United States. In recent decades, we find negative reallocation, from poorer to richer, for which no stationary distribution exists. When we find positive reallocation, convergence to the stationary distribution is slow. Our analysis does not support using the ergodic hypothesis in this model for these data. It suggests that inequality evolves because the distribution is inherently unstable on relevant timescales, regardless of shocks. Studies of other models and data, in which the ergodic hypothesis is made, would benefit from similar tests.

Juárez, Maximilian, and the French Occupation of Mexico

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Hogan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Historical Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Working Poor ◽  
The Other ◽  
Reform Movement ◽  
Mexican History ◽  
Basic Facts ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Benito Juarez

A tumultuous period in Mexican history began with the Reform Movement of President Benito Juárez, followed by the French invasion and installation of Maximillian as emperor, the defeat of his troops by the liberal army, and the restoration of the Mexican Republic in 1877. Although most of the basic facts of these events are not in dispute, the narrowness of the lens used to examine them is. Some data have been systematically ignored by national historians, and there are also contradictory interpretations of the published historical data. One common reflection on this period is the depiction of Maximilian as liberal whom some argue contributed in a positive way to Mexico. However, some Mexican scholars dispute this. The other widely held belief is that Benito Juárez can be credited with the restoration of the republic and the betterment of the working poor and indigenous. Although criticism of Juárez is uncommon in official circles, where he is idolized, some Mexican scholars are more skeptical of these claims. The missing or generally ignored data concern the contribution of the United States to the defeat of the French and Austrian armies, which is not mentioned in any survey texts and is minimized in most articles. The fuller inclusion of these data coupled with a closer look at the contributions and failures of both the Maximilian and Juárez regimes provides a clearer picture of the epoch and generates new insights.

scholarly journals Cost-effectiveness of implementing objective diagnostic verification of asthma in the United States

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohsen Yaghoubi ◽  
Amin Adibi ◽  
Zafar Zafari ◽  
J Mark FitzGerald ◽  
Shawn D. Aaron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Of Life ◽  
United States ◽  
Cost Effectiveness ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
List Type ◽  
Asthma Diagnosis ◽  
Verification Algorithm ◽  
Input Parameters

AbstractBackgroundAsthma diagnosis in the community is often made without objective testing.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of implementing a stepwise objective diagnostic verification algorithm among patients with community-diagnosed asthma in the United States (US).MethodsWe developed a probabilistic time-in-state cohort model that compared a stepwise asthma verification algorithm based on spirometry and methacholine challenge test against the current standard of care over 20 years. Model input parameters were informed from the literature and with original data analyses when required. The target population was US adults (≥15 y/o) with physician-diagnosed asthma. The final outcomes were costs (in 2018 $) and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), discounted at 3% annually. Deterministic and probabilistic analyses were undertaken to examine the effect of alternative assumptions and uncertainty in model parameters on the results.ResultsIn a simulated cohort of 10,000 adults with diagnosed asthma, the stepwise algorithm resulted in the removal of diagnosis in 3,366. This was projected to be associated with savings of $36.26 million in direct costs and a gain of 4,049.28 QALYs over 20 years. Extrapolating these results to the US population indicated an undiscounted potential savings of $56.48 billion over 20 years. Results were robust against alternative assumptions and plausible changes in values of input parameters.ConclusionImplementation of a simple diagnostic testing algorithm to verify asthma diagnosis might result in substantial savings and improvement in patients’ quality of life.Key MessagesCompared with current standards of practice, the implementation of an asthma verification algorithm among US adults with diagnosed asthma can be associated with reduction in costs and gain in quality of life.There is substantial room for improving patient care and outcomes through promoting objective asthma diagnosis.Capsule summaryAsthma ‘overdiagnosis’ is common among US adults. An objective, stepwise verification algorithm for re-evaluation of asthma diagnosis can result in substantial savings in costs and improvements in quality of life.

scholarly journals Introductory Models of COVID-19 in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 74-98
Author(s):  
Peter Hugo Nelson
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Transition Function ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Microsoft Excel ◽  
New Model ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Unlimited Growth ◽  
Least Squares Techniques

ABSTRACT Students develop and test simple kinetic models of the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus. Microsoft Excel is used as the modeling platform because it is nonthreatening to students and it is widely available. Students develop finite difference models and implement them in the cells of preformatted spreadsheets following a guided inquiry pedagogy that introduces new model parameters in a scaffolded step-by-step manner. That approach allows students to investigate the implications of new model parameters in a systematic way. Students fit the resulting models to reported cases per day data for the United States using least squares techniques with Excel's Solver. Using their own spreadsheets, students discover for themselves that the initial exponential growth of COVID-19 can be explained by a simplified unlimited growth model and by the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model. They also discover that the effects of social distancing can be modeled using a Gaussian transition function for the infection rate coefficient and that the summer surge was caused by prematurely relaxing social distancing and then reimposing stricter social distancing. Students then model the effect of vaccinations and validate the resulting susceptible-infected-recovered-vaccinated (SIRV) model by showing that it successfully predicts the reported cases per day data from Thanksgiving through the holiday period up to 14 February 2021. The same SIRV model is then extended and successfully fits the fourth peak up to 1 June 2021, caused by further relaxation of social distancing measures. Finally, students extend the model up to the present day (27 August 2021) and successfully account for the appearance of the delta variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. The fitted model also predicts that the delta variant peak will be comparatively short, and the cases per day data should begin to fall off in early September 2021, counter to current expectations. This case study makes an excellent capstone experience for students interested in scientific modeling.

Cambodia in 2018

Asian Survey ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 170-176
Author(s):  
Aurel Croissant
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Prime Minister ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Opposition Party ◽  
General Elections ◽  
The Eu

In 2018, ever-incumbent Prime Minister Hun Sen scored a landslide victory in the Cambodian general elections. Three factors in particular explain this outcome. First, the elimination of the main opposition party, whose strategy of a peaceful election boycott failed. Second, favorable economic conditions and government handouts of spoils to constituencies that traditionally supported the opposition. Third, the weak leverage of the United States and the EU, and the Hun Sen regime’s strong links with China.

Accountability for the Local Economy at All Levels of Government in United States Elections

2020 ◽  
Vol 114 (3) ◽  
pp. 660-676
Author(s):  
JUSTIN DE BENEDICTIS-KESSNER ◽  
CHRISTOPHER WARSHAW
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Local Economy ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
Democratic Accountability ◽  
Retrospective Voting ◽  
Crucial Component ◽  
Multiple Levels ◽  
Election Results

Retrospective voting is a crucial component of democratic accountability. A large literature on retrospective voting in the United States finds that the president’s party is rewarded in presidential elections for strong economic performance and punished for weak performance. By contrast, there is no clear consensus about whether politicians are held accountable for the local economy at other levels of government, nor how voters react to the economy in a complex system of multilevel responsibility. In this study, we use administrative data on county-level economic conditions from 1969 to 2018 and election results across multiple levels of government to examine the effect of the local economy on elections for local, state, and federal offices in the United States. We find that the president’s party is held accountable for economic performance across nearly all levels of government. We also find that incumbents are held accountable for the economy in U.S. House and gubernatorial elections. Our findings have broad implications for literatures on representation, accountability, and elections.

scholarly journals Crop switching reduces agricultural losses from climate change in the United States by half under RCP 8.5

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
James Rising ◽  
Naresh Devineni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
United States ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Cross Validation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Economic Potential ◽  
Bayesian Hierarchical ◽  
Rcp 8.5

AbstractA key strategy for agriculture to adapt to climate change is by switching crops and relocating crop production. We develop an approach to estimate the economic potential of crop reallocation using a Bayesian hierarchical model of yields. We apply the model to six crops in the United States, and show that it outperforms traditional empirical models under cross-validation. The fitted model parameters provide evidence of considerable existing climate adaptation across counties. If crop locations are held constant in the future, total agriculture profits for the six crops will drop by 31% for the temperature patterns of 2070 under RCP 8.5. When crop lands are reallocated to avoid yield decreases and take advantage of yield increases, half of these losses are avoided (16% loss), but 57% of counties are allocated crops different from those currently planted. Our results provide a framework for identifying crop adaptation opportunities, but suggest limits to their potential.

GENDER MOTIVES OF MEXICAN ENTREPRENEURS IN TWO LARGE URBAN SETTINGS: AN EMPIRICAL STUDY

2016 ◽  
Vol 21 (03) ◽  
pp. 1650020
Author(s):  
YVES ROBICHAUD ◽  
JEAN-CHARLES CACHON ◽  
JOSÉ BARRAGÁN CODINA ◽  
MARIO CÉSAR DAVILA AGUIRRE ◽  
ALFONSO LOPEZ LIRA ARJONA
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Economic Conditions ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Urban Centers ◽  
Knowing That ◽  
Start Up

The need for an income is cited by several studies as a primary motive for both formal and informal business start-up activities found in emerging countries. Conversely, entrepreneurs from developed countries enjoying more favorable economic conditions (such as the United States, Canada, or the European Union) are mainly motivated by intrinsic motives. Given the extant literature, it appeared important to determine which motivators were at play in larger Mexican urban centers, where economic conditions seemed to have become similar to those of Canada and the United States. No significant differences were observed between the motives of female as compared to male entrepreneurs from urban Mexico because a majority went into business primarily for economic reasons rather than for intrinsic motives. Knowing that Mexican entrepreneurs are mostly motivated by economic goals should help local governments in designing policies aimed at fostering and facilitating entrepreneurship.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document