scholarly journals PROBABILISTIC APPROACH TO MEASURING PRICE RISK OF THE ENTERPRISE

2021 ◽  
Vol 138 (4) ◽  
pp. 19-35
Author(s):  
MAKARCHUK Ivan ◽  
FEDULOVA Iryna
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Price Risk ◽  
Key Indicators

Background. Every manager faces analyzing problem and forecasting indicators in the process of making management decisions that are random variables, and therefore they are associated with risk and uncertainty. Their realization is possible in the future, but today we need to understand the risk level that can be encountered in the activity process and prepare for it in advance. Analysis of recent research and publications has shown that probabilistic approach is the most commonly used tool for risk assessment and it is based on probability theory. The aim of the article is to consider the tools of the probabilistic approach to riska ssessment. According to this approach, risk assessment is carried out for products price that have a normal law distribution and for which we can use an integrated probability distri­bution function and the key indicators that underlie its structure. Materials and methods. The methodological basis of risk analysis by the probabilistic approach is the consideration of the initial data as expected values of some random variables with known laws of probability distribution. Results. The use of tools of probabilistic approach to risk assessment of product pricing is considered. It is based on the assumption that a normal probability distribution law, an integral probability distribution function, and the key indicators that underlie its construction can be used to analyze market price risk. Conclusion. Probabilistic approach allows with minimal effort to understand the probability of obtaining the desired result, which is related to the purpose of the enterprise, or which result can be obtained with the desired probability and determine their acceptability. Keywords: risk, risk analysis, risk assessment, probabilistic approach, integral pro­bability distribution function.

The Method of Probabilistic Nodes Combination in Decision Making and Risk Analysis

2016 ◽  
pp. 32-60
Author(s):  
Dariusz Jacek Jakóbczak
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Linear Interpolation ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions ◽  
Characteristic Points ◽  
Basic Probability

Proposed method, called Probabilistic Nodes Combination (PNC), is the method of 2D curve interpolation and extrapolation using the set of key points (knots or nodes). Nodes can be treated as characteristic points of data for modeling and analyzing. The model of data can be built by choice of probability distribution function and nodes combination. PNC modeling via nodes combination and parameter ? as probability distribution function enables value anticipation in risk analysis and decision making. Two-dimensional curve is extrapolated and interpolated via nodes combination and different functions as discrete or continuous probability distribution functions: polynomial, sine, cosine, tangent, cotangent, logarithm, exponent, arc sin, arc cos, arc tan, arc cot or power function. Novelty of the paper consists of two generalizations: generalization of previous MHR method with various nodes combinations and generalization of linear interpolation with different (no basic) probability distribution functions and nodes combinations.

A WebGIS-Based System for Urban Stormwater Risk Analysis Using a Cloud Matter-Element Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 80-99
Author(s):  
Junfei Chen ◽  
Cong Yu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Temporal Distribution ◽  
Element Model ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Urban Stormwater ◽  
Intelligence System ◽  
Prototype Development ◽  
Matter Element Model

The interaction of human activity, climate change, and urbanization gives rise to more frequent urban stormwater disasters, which causes great economic loss in cities. This article presents a prototype of an interactive WebGIS system for urban stormwater risk analysis. The system has a Browse/Server(B/S) structure and uses WebGIS techniques for prototype development. It is based on the theory of disaster system and Cloud matter-element model for risk assessment. The risk results are immediately generated and visualized interactively by rendering risk maps. Finally, two urban stormwater events in Nanjing in 2015 and 2016 were selected to verify the accuracy of the risk assessment. The results show that the intelligence system can effectively assess the risk level and identify the spatial-temporal distribution of urban stormwater risk in Nanjing, China.

scholarly journals The Fréchet transform

1993 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-164
Author(s):  
Piotor Mikusiński ◽  
Morgan Phillips ◽  
Howard Sherwood ◽  
Michael D. Taylor
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Function ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Probability Measure ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Distribution Functions ◽  
Probability Distribution Functions

LetF1,…,FNbe1-dimensional probability distribution functions andCbe anN-copula. Define anN-dimensional probability distribution functionGbyG(x1,…,xN)=C(F1(x1),…,FN(xN)). Letν, be the probability measure induced onℝNbyGandμbe the probability measure induced on[0,1]NbyC. We construct a certain transformationΦof subsets ofℝNto subsets of[0,1]Nwhich we call the Fréchet transform and prove that it is measure-preserving. It is intended that this transform be used as a tool to study the types of dependence which can exist between pairs orN-tuples of random variables, but no applications are presented in this paper.

scholarly journals A Risk Assessment Framework to Reduce Risk Level and Optimize Software Quality

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sanjeev Puri
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Security Policy ◽  
Management Control ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Security Risk ◽  
Software Projects ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Reduce Risk

Risk management for software projects is intended to minimize the chances of unexpected events, or more specifically to keep all possible outcomes under tight management control with making judgments about how risk events are to be treated, valued, compared and combined. It is necessary to have some well-founded infrastructure for the identification of software security risks as well as the application of appropriate controls to manage risks. To be truly beneficial, the risk analysis framework must be granular and practical enough to produce a customizable roadmap of which problems exist, and to rank them in order of severity. The paper a risk assessment framework for a precise, unambiguous and efficient risk analysis with qualitative risk analysis methodologies and tree based techniques by exploiting the synthesis of risk analysis methods with object-oriented modeling, semi-formal methods and tools, in order to improve the security risk analysis of software and security policy implementation of security-cri tical systems to reduce risk levels and optimizequality instructions.

scholarly journals Probabalistic modelling of the results of economic activity as a function of random values

2020 ◽  
pp. 102-112
Author(s):  
Olesya Martyniuk ◽  
Stepan Popina ◽  
Serhii Martyniuk
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Distribution Function ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Economic Structure ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Research Results

Introduction. Mathematical modeling of economic processes is necessary for the unambiguous formulation and solution of the problem. In the economic sphere this is the most important aspect of the activity of any enterprise, for which economic-mathematical modeling is the tool that allows to make adequate decisions. However, economic indicators that are factors of a model are usually random variables. An economic-mathematical model is proposed for calculating the probability distribution function of the result of economic activity on the basis of the known dependence of this result on factors influencing it and density of probability distribution of these factors. Methods. The formula was used to calculate the random variable probability distribution function, which is a function of other independent random variables. The method of estimation of basic numerical characteristics of the investigated functions of random variables is proposed: mathematical expectation that in the probabilistic sense is the average value of the result of functioning of the economic structure, as well as its variance. The upper bound of the variation of the effective feature is indicated. Results. The cases of linear and power functions of two independent variables are investigated. Different cases of two-dimensional domain of possible values of indicators, which are continuous random variables, are considered. The application of research results to production functions is considered. Examples of estimating the probability distribution function of a random variable are offered. Conclusions. The research results allow in the probabilistic sense to estimate the result of the economic structure activity on the basis of the probabilistic distributions of the values of the dependent variables. The prospect of further research is to apply indirect control over economic performance based on economic and mathematical modeling.

scholarly journals Settlement Arrangement based on Landslide Risk Analysis in Girirejo, Bantul, Yogyakarta

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sri Aminatun ◽  
Yunalia Muntafi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Group Discussion ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Landslide Risk ◽  
Weighting Method ◽  
Risk Identify ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
High Level

<em>Located on a hilly topography with a steep slope, highlighted the importance of settlement arrangement based on a landslide risk assessment in Girirejo village, Imogiri, Bantul, Yogyakarta. This study aims to map landslides risk, identify houses in the landslide risk zone, and provide recommendations for settlement arrangements. The research begins with observation, interviews, and focus group discussion. Disaster risk mapping and analysis were carried out through weighting method based on Perka BNPB No.2 of 2012 concerning General Guidelines for Disaster Risk Assessment and a formula with parameters of hazard, vulnerability, and capacity. Results showed the medium to a high-level of landslide risk was dominated by northern and eastern parts of Girirejo (21 families in red-zone, 23 families in yellow-zone), while western and southern regions had a low landslide risk level. This research also provided a formulation of settlements concept for medium and high-risk areas by considering landslides risk analysis study.</em>

scholarly journals Investment Risk Assessment of Dispersed Wind Power in Low Wind Speed Area Using a Hybrid Multi-Criteria Decision-Making Approach Based on Hesitant Fuzzy Linguistic Environment

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
Lingyun Liu ◽  
Jianli Zhou ◽  
Haoxin Dong ◽  
Yao Tao ◽  
Yunna Wu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Fuzzy Linguistic

Reducing the phenomenon of wind curtailment is essential to improve the level of wind power consumption. Wind power development in China has shifted to southeast region and dispersed wind power has developed rapidly and gradually become the new main force. However, various obstacles limit the smooth progress of dispersed wind power in low wind speed area. An important point is the absence of targeted risk analysis and evaluation methods. Therefore, the principal contribution of this paper is to find out the critical risk factors of such projects and propose the risk assessment model. First, 18 critical risk factors are identified using the constructed five-dimensional risk analysis model. Second, the hesitant fuzzy linguistic term set with credibility is utilized to collect evaluation information on one hand and to improve the multicriteria decision-making methods involved on the other hand. Third, the risk evaluation and ranking for 10 provinces that mainly develop dispersed wind power is carried out. The evaluation results indicate that the risk level of dispersed wind power projects is “Relatively Low” in most study provinces and the risk levels of Guangdong and Fujian are higher. It is worth noting that the consistency between the evaluation results and the distribution of wind resources can be used to guide the formulation of stimulus policies. Besides, the ranking results show some preference for investment choice. Finally, dual sensitivity analysis tests the stability of the model and shows the ranking results under different decision preferences. Scenario analysis gives the possible risk scenarios and evaluation results in the future. This study can provide insightful inspiration to wind power investors, risk management practitioners, and policymakers.

The probability distribution function for the sum of squares of independent random variables

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yury Fateev ◽  
Dmitry Dmitriev ◽  
Valery Tyapkin ◽  
Nikolai Kremez ◽  
Vladimir Shaidurov
Keyword(s):  
Distribution Function ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Probability Distribution Function ◽  
Random Variables ◽  
Sum Of Squares ◽  
Independent Random Variables

scholarly journals Risk Analysis of One-Way Road Tunnel Tube Used for Bi-Directional Traffic under Fire Scenarios

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (7) ◽  
pp. 3198
Author(s):  
Ciro Caliendo ◽  
Isidoro Russo ◽  
Gianluca Genovese
Keyword(s):  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Natural Ventilation ◽  
Probabilistic Approach ◽  
Cfd Modeling ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Road Tunnel ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Visibility Distance ◽  
Traffic Volumes

We have set up a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) modeling, and performed a user evacuation model, for evaluating the risk level in one-way road tunnel tube when used for bi-directional traffic in particular circumstances. The simulations were carried out by considering both peak-hour traffic volumes during the day and off-peak hours overnight. The investigated one-way tube is ventilated by natural ventilation only, and has a length of less than 1000 m. With reference to the worst environmental conditions, which are downstream of the fire due to the direction of natural ventilation, the consequences on escaping users, caused by different types of burning vehicles located in various longitudinal positions along the tube, are shown. The results prove the positive effects on environmental conditions (in terms of temperature, visibility distance, CO and CO2 concentration) along the user evacuation path when the tube is used for bi-directional traffic at night rather than daytime. Only for the case of 100 MW fire and in the proximity of the exit portal, the last escaping user might be affected by a visibility distance and CO concentration exceeding the threshold values. In this special case, countermeasures for reducing smoke concentration or emergency services at the portals should be provided. However, the quantitative risk analysis, based on a probabilistic approach, showed that the F-N curve of the tube when used for bi-directional traffic with reference to the night always lies below that of the daytime, and the reduction in the risk level is between 80 and 100% for the night traffic compared to daytime one. It is to be focused on the fact that our modeling may represent a reference in investigating the effects of hourly traffic volumes on the risk level in tunnels and may help decisionmakers in understanding when to temporarily close a tube for maintenance, repair, or rehabilitation activities and use the adjacent tube for bi-directional traffic.

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