scholarly journals Exploring the Evolution of Drought Characteristics in Balochistan, Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (3) ◽  
pp. 913 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoaib Jamro ◽  
Falak Naz Channa ◽  
Ghulam Hussain Dars ◽  
Kamran Ansari ◽  
Nir Y. Krakauer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Tree Edge ◽  
Edge Removal ◽  
The 1960S

In the wake of a rapidly changing climate, droughts have intensified, in both duration and severity, across the globe. The Germanwatch long-term Climate Risk Index ranks Pakistan among the top 10 countries most affected by the adverse effects of climate change. Within Pakistan, the province of Balochistan is among the most vulnerable regions due to recurring prolonged droughts, erratic precipitation patterns, and dependence on agriculture and livestock for survival. This study aims to explore how the characteristics of droughts have evolved in the region from 1902–2015 using 3-month and 12-month timescales of a popular drought index, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The region was divided into six zones using Spatial “K”luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method, and run theory was applied to characterize droughts in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. The results of the non-parametric Mann–Kendall trend test applied to SPEI indicate prevailing significant negative trends (dryer conditions) in all the zones. Balochistan experienced its most severe droughts in the 1960s and around 2000. The effects of climate change are also evident in the fact that all the long duration droughts occurred after 1960. Moreover, the number of droughts identified by 3-month SPEI showed a significant increase after 1960 for all six zones. The same trend was found in the 12-month SPEI but for only three zones.

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Variability of Drought in Pakistan Using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (21) ◽  
pp. 4588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shoaib Jamro ◽  
Ghulam Hussain Dars ◽  
Kamran Ansari ◽  
Nir Y. Krakauer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Tree Edge ◽  
Edge Removal ◽  
History Of ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Spatio Temporal

Pakistan is among the top ten countries adversely affected by climate change. More specifically, there is concern that climate change may cause longer and severer spells of droughts. To quantify the change in the characteristics of droughts in Pakistan over the years, we have evaluated spatio-temporal trends of droughts in Pakistan over the period 1902–2015 using Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Additionally, the Spatial “K” luster Analysis using Tree Edge Removal (SKATER) method was employed to regionalize droughts into five contiguous zones. The run theory was then applied to each zone to identify drought events and characterize them in terms of duration, severity, intensity, and peak. Moreover, the Modified Mann–Kendall trend test was applied to identify statistically significant trends in SPEI and drought characteristics in each zone. It was found that the southern areas of Pakistan, encompassing Sindh and most of Baluchistan, have experienced a decrease in SPEI, indicating a drying trend. Central Pakistan has witnessed a wetting trend as demonstrated by an increase in SPEI over time, whereas no statistically significant trend was observed for the northern areas of Pakistan. On a zonal basis, the longest duration drought to occur in Pakistan lasted 22 months in zone 5 (Sindh) from 1968 to 1970. In addition, the drought of 1920 and 2000 can be said to be the worst drought in the history of the region as it affected all the zones and lasted for more than 10-months in three zones.

scholarly journals Regionalization and Spatiotemporal Variation of Drought in China Based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (1961–2013)

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiongfei Liu ◽  
Shixin Wang ◽  
Yi Zhou ◽  
Futao Wang ◽  
Wenjun Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southern China ◽  
Central China ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variations ◽  
Drought Duration ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Tree Edge ◽  
Edge Removal

China is considered to be one of the most drought prone countries. This study is dedicated to analyzing the regionalization and spatiotemporal variations of drought based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, which covers the period 1961–2013 across 810 stations in China. Using Spatial “K”luster Analysis by Tree Edge Removal method, China was divided into eight regions: southwest (SW), northeast (NE), north (N), southeast (SE), Yangtze River (YR), northwest (NW), central China (C), and Tibet Plateau (TP). The spatiotemporal variations of drought characteristics indicated that the drought count in NE and C was generally high. Southern China and NW had suffered long drought duration and extreme severity. The MK test results show that stations with significant drying trends mainly locate in SW, N, NW, and C. The severe drought frequency was very high in 1990s and 2000s. Furthermore, more attention should be paid to abnormal less precipitation in summer and abnormal high temperature in spring in SW, NE, N, and C. Besides, abnormal less precipitation is the main factor of drought in SE and YR in whole year. This study is anticipated to support the water resources management, and to promote the realization of environmental protection and agricultural production.

scholarly journals Long Term Historic Changes in the Flow of Lesser Zab River, Iraq

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 22 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rawshan Ali ◽  
Arez Ismael ◽  
Arien Heryansyah ◽  
Nadeem Nawaz
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Scientific Community ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Hydraulic Structures ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Water Scarce

The assessment of trends in river flows has become of interest to the scientific community in order to understand the changing characteristics of flow due to climate change. In this study, the trends in river flow of Dukan Dam located in the northern part of Iraq were assessed. The assessment was carried out for the period 1964 to 2013 using Sen’s slope and the Mann–Kendall test. Sen’s slope was used to assess the magnitude of change while the Mann–Kendall trend test was used to confirm the significance of trends. The results of the study showed that there was a decreasing trend in river flow both annually and for all individual months. The highest decreasing trend of −5.08846 m3/month was noticed in April, while the lowest change of −1.06022 m3/month was noticed in November. The annual flow also showed a significant decrease at a rate of −1.912 m3/year at a 95% level of confidence. Additionally, the findings of the study also confirmed that a decrease in precipitation and the construction of hydraulic structures reduced the flow in the river. The findings of the study suggest that decreasing trends may cause a water-scarce situation in the future if proper adaptation measures are not taken.

scholarly journals Analýza vybraných indikátorov hodnotenia zmeny klímy na území SR (pre účely podpory rozvoja záchranných služieb)

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 16-24
Author(s):  
Iveta Marková ◽  
◽  
Mikuláš Monoši
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Annual Total ◽  
State Of The Environment ◽  
Climatic Elements

The development of climate change is evaluated based on trends in long-term time series (1951 - 2018) of individual climatic elements, comparing values of individual years with the standard period in climatology 1961 - 1990 (SAŽP, 2019). The aim of the article is to evaluate climate elements, namely the production of greenhouse gases, average annual air temperature, annual total atmospheric precipitation, drought index and annual soil temperature (soil index). Data presented in the article are obtained from public reports on the state of the environment in the Slovak Republic and other related documents. In 1881 - 2018, Slovakia underwent significant changes in all monitored climatic elements. The most crucial changes occurred in 2017 and 2018.

scholarly journals Analysis of Long-Term Temperature Trend as an Urban Climate Change Indicator

2017 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 196-208
Author(s):  
Dadang Subarna
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Linear Trend ◽  
Urban Climate ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Climatic Impact ◽  
The Mean

Temperature plays a major role in detecting climate change brought about by urbanisation and industrialisation. Most climatic impact studies rely on changes in the average values of meteorological variables such as temperature. This paper attempts to study the temporal changes in the mean value of the air surface temperature over Jakarta city during the last century, specifically in the period 1901–2002.The data used in this study were taken from the Jakarta Climatology Station because they are of are good quality, there are extensive records and there is little missing or blank data. Statistic descriptive methods were employed, including a description of the type of probabilistic model chosen to represent the monthly mean air surface temperature time series. The long-term change in temperature was evaluated using the Mann-Kendall trend test method and the statistical linear trend test; the results of these two tests agreed. During the last 100 years, data observations from the station indicate that the monthly mean value of the air surface temperature of Jakarta city has increased at a rate of about 0.152°C decade–1 and has not exhibited variability signals but has changed on average. Based on the linear regression model, the mean value of the air surface temperature over Jakarta city is estimated to reach around 28.5°C in 2050 and 29.23°C in 2100.

scholarly journals Expressions of climatic change in Slovak Republic

2020 ◽  
pp. 145-156
Author(s):  
Iveta Marková ◽  
Mikuláš Monoši
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Atmospheric Precipitation ◽  
Normal Period ◽  
State Of The Environment ◽  
Climatic Elements

The development of climate change is evaluated on the basis of trends in a long-term time series (1951–2018) of individual climatic elements by comparing values from individual years with the normal period in climatology of 1961–1990. The aim of the article is to present the manifestations of climate change in Slovakia (since its inception) according to selected indicators: (1) average annual air temperature, (2) soil temperature, (3) total atmospheric precipitation and (4) drought index over the last decade. The data presented in the article were obtained from public reports on the state of the environment in the Slovakia and other related documents. Slovakia, during the years 1881–2018, underwent significant changes in all monitored climatic elements. The most significant changes were in 2017 and 2018.

scholarly journals Secular Variation in Rainfall Intensity and Temperature in Eastern Australia

2013 ◽  
Vol 14 (4) ◽  
pp. 1356-1363 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Ru Chen ◽  
Bofu Yu ◽  
Graham Jenkins
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Rainfall Intensity ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Trend Test ◽  
Long Duration ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Mean

Abstract It is generally assumed that rainfall intensity will increase with temperature increase, irrespective of the underlying changes to the average rainfall. This study documents and investigates long-term trends in rainfall intensities, annual rainfall, and mean maximum and minimum temperatures using the Mann–Kendall trend test for nine sites in eastern Australia. Relationships between rainfall intensities at various durations and 1) annual rainfall and 2) the mean maximum and minimum temperatures were investigated. The results showed that the mean minimum temperature has increased significantly at eight out of the nine sites in eastern Australia. Changes in annual rainfall are likely to be associated with changes in rainfall intensity at the long duration of 48 h. Overall, changes in rainfall intensity at short durations (<1 h) positively correlate with changes in the mean maximum temperature, but there is no significant correlation with the mean minimum temperature and annual rainfall. Additionally, changes in rainfall intensity at longer durations (≥1 h) positively correlate with changes in the mean annual rainfall, but not with either mean maximum or minimum temperatures for the nine sites investigated.

scholarly journals Relative Risk Prediction of Norovirus Incidence under Climate Change in Korea

Life ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 1332
Author(s):  
Tae-Kyoung Kim ◽  
Jayeong Paek ◽  
Hwang-Yong Kim ◽  
Ilsu Choi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Analysis ◽  
Risk Index ◽  
Food Poisoning ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
B Spline

As incidences of food poisoning, especially norovirus-induced diarrhea, are associated with climate change, there is a need for an approach that can be used to predict the risks of such illnesses with high accuracy. In this paper, we predict the winter norovirus incidence rate in Korea compared to that of other diarrhea-causing viruses using a model based on B-spline added to logistic regression to estimate the long-term pattern of illness. We also develop a risk index based on the estimated probability of occurrence. Our probabilistic analysis shows that the risk of norovirus-related food poisoning in winter will remain stable or increase in Korea based on various Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. Our approach can be used to obtain an overview of the changes occurring in regional and seasonal norovirus patterns that can help assist in making appropriate policy decisions.

scholarly journals Arctic Archaeology and Climate Change

2019 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 279-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean P.A. Desjardins ◽  
Peter D. Jordan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Cultural Traditions ◽  
Long Term Culture ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Human Scale ◽  
Arctic Archaeology ◽  
The 1960S

An enduring debate in the field of Arctic archaeology has been the extent to which climate change impacted cultural developments in the past. Long-term culture change across the circumpolar Arctic was often highly dynamic, with episodes of rapid migration, regional abandonment, and—in some cases—the disappearance or wholesale replacement of entire cultural traditions. By the 1960s, researchers were exploring the possibility that warming episodes had positive effects on cold-adapted premodern peoples in the Arctic by ( a) reducing the extent of sea ice, ( b) expanding the size and range of marine mammal populations, and ( c) opening new waterways and hunting areas for marine-adapted human groups. Although monocausal climatic arguments for change are now regarded as overly simplistic, the growing threat of contemporary Arctic warming to Indigenous livelihoods has given wider relevance to research into long-term culture–climate interactions. With their capacity to examine deeper cultural responses to climate change, archaeologists are in a unique position to generate human-scale climate adaptation insights that may inform future planning and mitigation efforts. The exceptionally well-preserved cultural and paleo-ecological sequences of the Arctic make it one of the best-suited regions on Earth to address such problems. Ironically, while archaeologists employ an exciting and highly promising new generation of methods and approaches to examine long-term fragility and resilience in Arctic social-ecological systems, many of these frozen paleo-societal archives are fast disappearing due to anthropogenic warming.

scholarly journals Monitoring the Reduced Resilience of Forests in Southwest China Using Long-Term Remote Sensing Data

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 32
Author(s):  
Hao Jiang ◽  
Lisheng Song ◽  
Yan Li ◽  
Mingguo Ma ◽  
Lei Fan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Southwest China ◽  
Remote Sensing Data ◽  
Root Systems ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
Spatial Distributions ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index ◽  
Good Agreement

An increase in the frequency and severity of droughts associated with global warming has resulted in deleterious impacts on forest productivity in Southwest China. Despite attempts to explore the response of vegetation to drought, less is known about forest’s resilience in response to drought in Southwest China. Here, the reduced resilience of the forest was found based on remotely sensed optical and microwave vegetation products. The spatial distribution and temporal variation of resilience-reduced forest were assessed using the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) and vegetation optical depth (VOD). Our findings showed that 40–50% of the forest appeared to have abnormally low resilience approximately 6 months after the severe drought. The spatial distributions of abnormally low resilience had a good agreement with the regions affected by the 2009–2011 drought events. In particular, our results indicated that areas of afforestation were more susceptible to drought than natural forest, maybe due to the different water uptake strategy of the diverse root systems. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of afforestation areas to climate change, and recommend giving more attention to soil water availability.

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