scholarly journals Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C on Hydrologic Regimes in the Northeastern U.S.

Climate ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 9
Author(s):  
Ridwan Siddique ◽  
Alfonso Mejia ◽  
Naoki Mizukami ◽  
Richard N. Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
The United States ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Hydrologic Regimes ◽  
Hydrological Regimes

Regional climate change impacts show a wide range of variations under different levels of global warming. Watersheds in the northeastern region of the United States (NEUS) are projected to undergo the most severe impacts from climate change in the forms of extreme precipitation events, floods and drought, sea level rise, etc. As such, there is high possibility that hydrologic regimes in the NEUS may be altered in the future, which can be absolutely devastating for managing water resources and ecological balance across different watersheds. In this study, we present a comprehensive impact analysis using different hydrologic indicators across selected watersheds in the NEUS under different thresholds of global temperature increases (1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 °C). Precipitation and temperature projections from fourteen downscaled Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway are used as inputs into a distributed hydrological model to obtain future streamflow conditions. Overall, the results indicate that the majority of the selected watersheds will enter a wetter regime, particularly during the months of winter, while flow conditions during late summer and fall indicate a dry future under all three thresholds of temperature increase. The estimation of time of emergence of new hydrological regimes show large uncertainties under 1.5 and 2.0 °C global temperature increases; however, most of the GCM projections show a strong consensus that new hydrological regimes may appear in the NEUS watersheds under 3.0 °C temperature increase.

scholarly journals Impacts of global warming of 1.50C, 2.00C and 3.00C on hydrologic regimes in the northeastern U.S.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ridwan Siddique ◽  
Alfonso Mejia ◽  
Naoki Mizukami ◽  
Richard Palmer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Late Summer ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Distributed Hydrological Model ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Hydrologic Regimes ◽  
Hydrological Regimes

Regional climate change impacts show wide range of variations under different levels of global warming. Watersheds in the northeastern region of United States (NEUS) are projected to undergo most severe impacts from climate change in the forms of extreme precipitation events, floods and drought, sea level rise etc. As such, there is high possibility that hydrologic regimes in the NEUS may get altered in the future which can be absolutely devastating for managing water resources and ecological balance across different watersheds. In this study, therefore, we present a comprehensive impact analysis using different hydrologic indicators across selected watersheds in the NEUS under different thresholds of global temperature increases (1.5C, 2.0C and 3.0C). Precipitation and temperature projections from fourteen downscaled GCMs under RCP8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway are used as inputs into a distributed hydrological model to obtain future streamflow conditions. Overall, the results indicate that majority of the selected watersheds will enter into a wetter regime particularly during the months of winter while flow conditions during late summer and fall indicate a dry future under all three thresholds of temperature increases. The estimation of time of emergence of new hydrological regimes show large uncertainties under 1.5C and 2.0C global temperature increases, however, most of the GCM projections show strong consensus that new hydrological regimes may appear in the NEUS watersheds under 3.0C temperature increase.

scholarly journals Ensemble Projections of Regional Climatic Changes over Ontario, Canada

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (18) ◽  
pp. 7327-7346 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiuquan Wang ◽  
Guohe Huang ◽  
Jinliang Liu ◽  
Zhong Li ◽  
Shan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climatic Changes ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Ensemble Simulations ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Data Portal

Abstract In this study, high-resolution climate projections over Ontario, Canada, are developed through an ensemble modeling approach to provide reliable and ready-to-use climate scenarios for assessing plausible effects of future climatic changes at local scales. The Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) regional modeling system is adopted to conduct ensemble simulations in a continuous run from 1950 to 2099, driven by the boundary conditions from a HadCM3-based perturbed physics ensemble. Simulations of temperature and precipitation for the baseline period are first compared to the observed values to validate the performance of the ensemble in capturing the current climatology over Ontario. Future projections for the 2030s, 2050s, and 2080s are then analyzed to help understand plausible changes in its local climate in response to global warming. The analysis indicates that there is likely to be an obvious warming trend with time over the entire province. The increase in average temperature is likely to be varying within [2.6, 2.7]°C in the 2030s, [4.0, 4.7]°C in the 2050s, and [5.9, 7.4]°C in the 2080s. Likewise, the annual total precipitation is projected to increase by [4.5, 7.1]% in the 2030s, [4.6, 10.2]% in the 2050s, and [3.2, 17.5]% in the 2080s. Furthermore, projections of rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves are developed to help understand the effects of global warming on extreme precipitation events. The results suggest that there is likely to be an overall increase in the intensity of rainfall storms. Finally, a data portal named Ontario Climate Change Data Portal (CCDP) is developed to ensure decision-makers and impact researchers have easy and intuitive access to the refined regional climate change scenarios.

scholarly journals Analysis of Climate Change in the Area of Vojvodina-Republic of Serbia and Possible Consequences

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirko Andreja Borisov
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Hydrological Regime ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Digital Terrain ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Digital Terrain Modeling ◽  
Nature And Society ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Linear Correlations

Climate change conditions a wide range of impacts such as the impact on weather, but also on ecosystems and biodiversity, agriculture and forestry, human health, hydrological regime and energy. In addition to global warming, local factors affecting climate change are being considered. Presentation and analysis of the situation was carried out using geoinformation technologies (radar recording, remote detection, digital terrain modeling, cartographic visualization and geostatistics). This paper describes methods and use of statistical indicators such as LST, NDVI and linear correlations from which it can be concluded that accelerated construction and global warming had an impact on climate change in period from 1987 to 2018 in the area of Vojvodina – Republic of Serbia. Also, using the global SRTM DEM, it is shown how the temperature behaves based on altitude change. Conclusions and possible consequences in nature and society were derived.

scholarly journals Changing International Law for a Changing Climate

AJIL Unbound ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 112 ◽  
pp. 279-284 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel C. Esty ◽  
Dena P. Adler
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emissions ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Paris Agreement ◽  
Successful Implementation ◽  
Gas Emissions ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
National Governments

After more than two decades of inadequate international efforts to address climate change resulting from rising greenhouse gas emissions, the 2015 Paris Climate Change Agreement shifted gears. That agreement advances a “bottom-up” model of global cooperation that requires action commitments from all national governments and acknowledges the important role that cities, states, provinces, and businesses must play in delivering deep decarbonization. Given the limited control that presidents and prime ministers have over many of the policies and choices that determine their countries’ carbon footprints, the Paris Agreement missed an opportunity to formally recognize the climate change action commitments of mayors, governors, and premiers. These subnational officials often have authorities complementary to national governments, particularly in federal systems (including the United States, China, Canada, and Australia). They therefore possess significant independent capacities to reduce greenhouse gas emissions through their economic development strategies, building codes, zoning rules and practices, public transportation investments, and other policies. Likewise, the world community missed an opportunity to formally recognize the commitments of companies to successful implementation of the Paris Agreement and thereby to highlight the wide range of decisions that business leaders make that significantly affect greenhouse gas emissions.

scholarly journals Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin B. Stolpe ◽  
Kevin Cowtan ◽  
Iselin Medhaug ◽  
Reto Knutti
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Global Temperature ◽  
Global Mean Temperature ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Global Warming Hiatus ◽  
Warming Hiatus ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract Global mean temperature change simulated by climate models deviates from the observed temperature increase during decadal-scale periods in the past. In particular, warming during the ‘global warming hiatus’ in the early twenty-first century appears overestimated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. We examine the role of equatorial Pacific variability in these divergences since 1950 by comparing 18 studies that quantify the Pacific contribution to the ‘hiatus’ and earlier periods and by investigating the reasons for differing results. During the ‘global warming hiatus’ from 1992 to 2012, the estimated contributions differ by a factor of five, with multiple linear regression approaches generally indicating a smaller contribution of Pacific variability to global temperature than climate model experiments where the simulated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) or wind stress anomalies are nudged towards observations. These so-called pacemaker experiments suggest that the ‘hiatus’ is fully explained and possibly over-explained by Pacific variability. Most of the spread across the studies can be attributed to two factors: neglecting the forced signal in tropical Pacific SST, which is often the case in multiple regression studies but not in pacemaker experiments, underestimates the Pacific contribution to global temperature change by a factor of two during the ‘hiatus’; the sensitivity with which the global temperature responds to Pacific variability varies by a factor of two between models on a decadal time scale, questioning the robustness of single model pacemaker experiments. Once we have accounted for these factors, the CMIP5 mean warming adjusted for Pacific variability reproduces the observed annual global mean temperature closely, with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 from 1950 to 2018. The CMIP6 ensemble performs less favourably but improves if the models with the highest transient climate response are omitted from the ensemble mean.

scholarly journals Impacts of climate warming on forests in Ontario: Options for adaptation and mitigation

2000 ◽  
Vol 76 (1) ◽  
pp. 139-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. S. Papadopol
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Temperature Increase ◽  
Forest Ecosystems ◽  
Current Knowledge ◽  
Risk Environment ◽  
International Consensus ◽  
Change Models ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Key Words Climate Change

This paper summarizes current knowledge about the optical properties of greenhouse gases and general climate-warming influences. It explains the influence of this new phenomenon on the major ecosystems of the world, and considers the process of deforestation. It then analyzes the warming trends in Ontario based on data from two weather stations with continuous records of more than 120 years, to determine the rate of warming in the Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Region. The results indicate a temperature increase of about 0.76 °C per century and an 8% increase in annual total precipitation.Current climate change models indicate that for a scenario of 2 × CO2 levels some general, probable prognoses can be made, including a temperature increase of up to 4.5 °C, which might be disastrous for existing forest ecosystems. Specifically, the consequences of climate warming on (a) northward shifts of ecological conditions, (b) forest productivity, and (c) forest physiology and health, are examined. In the context of global warming, the paper then recommends practical management measures necessary to ensure adaptation of existing forest ecosystems to the warming that is already developing. These measures are intended to provide a no-risk environment for existing forests until rotation age. Next, a wide range of mitigative measures is examined with a view to securing the long-term preservation of forest ecosystems to avoid major ecological disruptions and, gradually, to reverse climate warming. Application of these measures requires international consensus, but countries that apply these recommendations first have a chance to profit from them due to the "CO2 fertilization" effect. Key words: climate change, silviculture, forest management

scholarly journals Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. McBean ◽  
H. Motiee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change.

Global Warming: More Common Than Tragic

2004 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-46 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth R. DeSombre
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
International Cooperation ◽  
Kyoto Protocol ◽  
Tragedy Of The Commons ◽  
The United States ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Commons ◽  
Process Work

Global warming is indeed a difficult international environmental problem to address: it has tragedy of the commons characteristics, and problems of time horizons and uncertainty. But previous efforts at international cooperation on other environmental issues such as ozone depletion suggest that international cooperation should be possible–though difficult–on climate change. Cooperation on issues that involve long time horizons suggests that the present generation is not calculating utility quite so narrowly as game theorists posit. Experience also suggests that successful cooperation on climate change will start with measures so small as to seem inconsequential, but will set in place an institutional and scientific process that will ultimately result in much more significant cooperative efforts. Rather than representing a tragedy, the Kyoto Protocol (or something much like it) could represent the beginnings of a process in which current generations take the first steps at collective action that dramatically improve the lives of future generations. Those who are concerned about the weakness of the Kyoto Protocol should first focus on persuading the United States to join-since this is the best way to let the process work and avoid a tragedy of the commons.

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