scholarly journals Regional Features of Long-Term Exposure to PM2.5 Air Quality over Asia under SSP Scenarios Based on CMIP6 Models

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (13) ◽  
pp. 6817
Author(s):  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Hyunmin Sung ◽  
Sanghoon Kwon ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Jaehee Lee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Quality Controls ◽  
Quality Guidelines

This study investigates changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration and air-quality index (AQI) in Asia using nine different Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project 6 (CMIP6) climate model ensembles from historical and future scenarios under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results indicated that the estimated present-day PM2.5 concentrations were comparable to satellite-derived data. Overall, the PM2.5 concentrations of the analyzed regions exceeded the WHO air-quality guidelines, particularly in East Asia and South Asia. In future SSP scenarios that consider the implementation of significant air-quality controls (SSP1-2.6, SSP5-8.5) and medium air-quality controls (SSP2-4.5), the annual PM2.5 levels were predicted to substantially reduce (by 46% to around 66% of the present-day levels) in East Asia, resulting in a significant improvement in the AQI values in the mid-future. Conversely, weak air pollution controls considered in the SSP3-7.0 scenario resulted in poor AQI values in China and India. Moreover, a predicted increase in the percentage of aged populations (>65 years) in these regions, coupled with high AQI values, may increase the risk of premature deaths in the future. This study also examined the regional impact of PM2.5 mitigations on downward shortwave energy and surface air temperature. Our results revealed that, although significant air pollution controls can reduce long-term exposure to PM2.5, it may also contribute to the warming of near- and mid-future climates.

scholarly journals Urban and air pollution: a multi-city study of long-term effects of urban landscape patterns on air quality trends

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lu Liang ◽  
Peng Gong
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Urban Form ◽  
Urban Landscape ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Landscape Patterns ◽  
Long Term Effects ◽  
Development Levels

Abstract Most air pollution research has focused on assessing the urban landscape effects of pollutants in megacities, little is known about their associations in small- to mid-sized cities. Considering that the biggest urban growth is projected to occur in these smaller-scale cities, this empirical study identifies the key urban form determinants of decadal-long fine particulate matter (PM2.5) trends in all 626 Chinese cities at the county level and above. As the first study of its kind, this study comprehensively examines the urban form effects on air quality in cities of different population sizes, at different development levels, and in different spatial-autocorrelation positions. Results demonstrate that the urban form evolution has long-term effects on PM2.5 level, but the dominant factors shift over the urbanization stages: area metrics play a role in PM2.5 trends of small-sized cities at the early urban development stage, whereas aggregation metrics determine such trends mostly in mid-sized cities. For large cities exhibiting a higher degree of urbanization, the spatial connectedness of urban patches is positively associated with long-term PM2.5 level increases. We suggest that, depending on the city’s developmental stage, different aspects of the urban form should be emphasized to achieve long-term clean air goals.

scholarly journals Anthropogenic influence on long-term surface air temperature trends: Attribution of temperature changes across East Asia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Allabakash ◽  
Sanghun Lim
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Signal Analysis ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Ghg Emissions ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Ecosystem Functions ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors

Abstract Global warming/abnormal climate change is an ongoing process impacting ecosystem functions and human health; East Asia (EA) is one of the most vulnerable regions being influenced by such changes. This study examines the long-term variability of surface air temperatures (SATs) across EA using the new Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) datasets. Historical simulations (20th century) and future (21st century) SAT projections were investigated based on multi-model ensemble simulations. We also demonstrate the contribution of external and natural (NAT) forcings to SAT change. This study mainly focuses the effect of human-induced/anthropogenic forcings (ANT) on EA climate for a long period (1850-2100). Our simulations show that SAT in EA increased by 0.014 °C/decade during the period 1850–2014 owing to combined ANT and NAT (‘ALL=ANT+NAT’) forcings, while an increase of 0.082 °C/decade can be attributed to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The ANT forcing rapidly increased after the third industrial revolution (after 1969). Consequently, SAT change accelerated to 0.255 °C/decade and 0.268 °C/decade owing to ALL and GHG forcings, respectively. Human-induced GHG emissions, carbon dioxide concentrations, and land use were the dominant factors driving SAT warming during the study period, and will contribute to substantial future warming trends. Furthermore, optimal fingerprinting method demonstrates the significance of ANT influences on climate change in EA. ANT forcing was clearly detected and distinct from NAT forcing in a two-signal analysis. In a three-signal analysis, GHG emissions were strongly detected and classified as distinct from other ANT and NAT forcings. The shared socioeconomic pathway emission scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, and SSP5–8.5) showed future projections (warming trends) from 2015–2100. This analysis suggests that climate change could be mitigated by restricting anthropogenic factors/activities in EA.

scholarly journals Long‐Term Exposure to Particulate Air Pollution Is Associated With 30‐Day Readmissions and Hospital Visits Among Patients With Heart Failure

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cavin K. Ward‐Caviness, ◽  
Mahdieh Danesh Yazdi, ◽  
Joshua Moyer, ◽  
Anne M. Weaver, ◽  
Wayne E. Cascio, ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Heart Failure ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
Total Hospital ◽  
Fine Particulate ◽  
Patients With Heart Failure ◽  
Hospital Visits ◽  
Pollution Exposure

Background Long‐term air pollution exposure is a significant risk factor for inpatient hospital admissions in the general population. However, we lack information on whether long‐term air pollution exposure is a risk factor for hospital readmissions, particularly in individuals with elevated readmission rates. Methods and Results We determined the number of readmissions and total hospital visits (outpatient visits+emergency room visits+inpatient admissions) for 20 920 individuals with heart failure. We used quasi‐Poisson regression models to associate annual average fine particulate matter at the date of heart failure diagnosis with the number of hospital visits and 30‐day readmissions. We used inverse probability weights to balance the distribution of confounders and adjust for the competing risk of death. Models were adjusted for age, race, sex, smoking status, urbanicity, year of diagnosis, short‐term fine particulate matter exposure, comorbid disease, and socioeconomic status. A 1‐µg/m 3 increase in fine particulate matter was associated with a 9.31% increase (95% CI, 7.85%–10.8%) in total hospital visits, a 4.35% increase (95% CI, 1.12%–7.68%) in inpatient admissions, and a 14.2% increase (95% CI, 8.41%–20.2%) in 30‐day readmissions. Associations were robust to different modeling approaches. Conclusions These results highlight the potential for air pollution to play a role in hospital use, particularly hospital visits and readmissions. Given the elevated frequency of hospitalizations and readmissions among patients with heart failure, these results also represent an important insight into modifiable environmental risk factors that may improve outcomes and reduce hospital use among patients with heart failure.

scholarly journals Impacts of historical climate and land cover changes on fine particulate matter (PM<sub>2.5</sub>) air quality in East Asia over 1980–2010

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Fu ◽  
Amos P. K. Tai ◽  
Hong Liao
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Particulate Matter ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
Land Cover ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
Anthropogenic Emissions ◽  
Voc Emissions ◽  
Fine Particulate

Abstract. To examine the effects of changes in climate, land cover and land use (LCLU), and anthropogenic emissions on fine particulate matter (PM2.5) between the 5-year periods 1981–1985 and 2007–2011 in East Asia, we perform a series of simulations using a global chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem) driven by assimilated meteorological data and a suite of land cover and land use data. Our results indicate that climate change alone could lead to a decrease in wintertime PM2.5 concentration by 4.0–12.0 μg m−3 in northern China, but an increase in summertime PM2.5 by 6.0–8.0 μg m−3 in those regions. These changes are attributable to the changing chemistry and transport of all PM2.5 components driven by long-term trends in temperature, wind speed and mixing depth. The concentration of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) is simulated to increase by 0.2–0.8 μg m−3 in both summer and winter in most regions of East Asia due to climate change alone, mostly reflecting higher biogenic volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions under warming. The impacts of LCLU change alone on PM2.5 (−2.1 to +1.3 μg m−3) are smaller than that of climate change, but among the various components the sensitivity of SOA and thus organic carbon to LCLU change (−0.4 to +1.2 μg m−3) is quite significant especially in summer, which is driven mostly by changes in biogenic VOC emissions following cropland expansion and changing vegetation density. The combined impacts show that while the effect of climate change on PM2.5 air quality is more pronounced, LCLU change could offset part of the climate effect in some regions but exacerbate it in others. As a result of both climate and LCLU changes combined, PM2.5 levels are estimated to change by −12.0 to +12.0 μg m−3 across East Asia between the two periods. Changes in anthropogenic emissions remain the largest contributor to deteriorating PM2.5 air quality in East Asia during the study period, but climate and LCLU changes could lead to a substantial modification of PM2.5 levels.

scholarly journals Projections of mid-century summer air-quality for North America: effects of changes in climate and precursor emissions

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 5367-5390 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Kelly ◽  
P. A. Makar ◽  
D. A. Plummer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
North American ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Ammonia Emissions

Abstract. Ten year simulations of North American current and future air-quality were carried out using a regional air-quality model driven by a regional climate model, in turn driven by a general circulation model. Three separate summer scenarios were performed: a scenario representing the years 1997 to 2006, and two SRES A2 climate scenarios for the years 2041 to 2050. The first future climate scenario makes use of 2002 anthropogenic precursor emissions, and the second applied emissions scaling factors derived from the IPCC Representative Concentration Pathway 6 (RCP 6) scenario to estimate emissions for 2050 from existing 2020 projections. Ten-year averages of ozone and PM2.5 at North American monitoring network stations were used to evaluate the model's current chemical climatology. The model was found to have a similar performance for ozone as when driven by an operational weather forecast model. The PM2.5 predictions had larger negative biases, likely resulting from the absence of rainwater evaporation, and from sub-regional negative biases in the surface temperature fields, in the version of the climate model used here. The differences between the two future climate simulations and the current climate simulation were used to predict the changes to air-quality that might be expected in a future warmer climate, if anthropogenic precursor emissions remain constant at their current levels, versus if the RCP 6 emissions controls were adopted. Metrics of concentration, human health, and ecosystem damage were compared for the simulations. The scenario with future climate and current anthropogenic emissions resulted in worse air-quality than for current conditions – that is, the effect of climate-change alone, all other factors being similar, would be a worsening of air-quality. These effects are spatially inhomogeneous, with the magnitude and sign of the changes varying with region. The scenario with future climate and RCP 6 emissions for 2050 resulted in an improved air-quality, with decreases in key pollutant concentrations, in acute human mortality associated with air-pollution, and in sulphur and ozone deposition to the ecosystem. The positive outcomes of the RCP 6 emissions reductions were found to be of greater magnitude than the negative outcomes of climate change alone. The RCP 6 scenario however resulted in an increase in the deposition of nitrogen, as a result of increased ammonia emissions expected in that scenario, compared to current ammonia emissions levels. The results of the study raise the possibility that simultaneous reductions of greenhouse gases and air pollution precursors may further reduce air pollution levels, with the added benefits of an immediate reduction in the impacts of air pollution on human and ecosystem health. Further scenarios to investigate this possibility are therefore recommended.

scholarly journals Effects of meteorology and emissions on urban air quality: a quantitative statistical approach to long-term records (1999–2016) in Seoul, South Korea

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 16121-16137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jihoon Seo ◽  
Doo-Sun R. Park ◽  
Jin Young Kim ◽  
Daeok Youn ◽  
Yong Bin Lim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Air Pollution ◽  
Air Quality ◽  
South Korea ◽  
Meteorological Conditions ◽  
Meteorological Variables ◽  
Urban Air ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Local Emissions

Abstract. Together with emissions of air pollutants and precursors, meteorological conditions play important roles in local air quality through accumulation or ventilation, regional transport, and atmospheric chemistry. In this study, we extensively investigated multi-timescale meteorological effects on the urban air pollution using the long-term measurements data of PM10, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3 and meteorological variables over the period of 1999–2016 in Seoul, South Korea. The long-term air quality data were decomposed into trend-free short-term components and long-term trends by the Kolmogorov–Zurbenko filter, and the effects of meteorology and emissions were quantitatively isolated using a multiple linear regression with meteorological variables. In terms of short-term variability, intercorrelations among the pollutants and meteorological variables and composite analysis of synoptic meteorological fields exhibited that the warm and stagnant conditions in the migratory high-pressure system are related to the high PM10 and primary pollutant, while the strong irradiance and low NO2 by high winds at the rear of a cyclone are related to the high O3. In terms of long-term trends, decrease in PM10 (−1.75 µg m−3 yr−1) and increase in O3 (+0.88 ppb yr−1) in Seoul were largely contributed by the meteorology-related trends (−0.94 µg m−3 yr−1 for PM10 and +0.47 ppb yr−1 for O3), which were attributable to the subregional-scale wind speed increase. Comparisons with estimated local emissions and socioeconomic indices like gross domestic product (GDP) growth and fuel consumptions indicate probable influences of the 2008 global economic recession as well as the enforced regulations from the mid-2000s on the emission-related trends of PM10 and other primary pollutants. Change rates of local emissions and the transport term of long-term components calculated by the tracer continuity equation revealed a decrease in contributions of local emissions to the primary pollutants including PM10 and an increase in contributions of local secondary productions to O3. The present results not only reveal an important role of synoptic meteorological conditions on the episodic air pollution events but also give insights into the practical effects of environmental policies and regulations on the long-term air pollution trends. As a complementary approach to the chemical transport modeling, this study will provide a scientific background for developing and improving effective air quality management strategy in Seoul and its metropolitan area.

scholarly journals Evaluating the impact of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter on mortality among the elderly

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (29) ◽  
pp. eaba5692 ◽  
Author(s):  
X. Wu ◽  
D. Braun ◽  
J. Schwartz ◽  
M. A. Kioumourtzoglou ◽  
F. Dominici
Keyword(s):  
Air Quality ◽  
Fine Particulate Matter ◽  
Quality Standards ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Quality Standard ◽  
Causal Link ◽  
Fine Particulate ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Current Standards

Many studies link long-term fine particle (PM2.5) exposure to mortality, even at levels below current U.S. air quality standards (12 micrograms per cubic meter). These findings have been disputed with claims that the use of traditional statistical approaches does not guarantee causality. Leveraging 16 years of data—68.5 million Medicare enrollees—we provide strong evidence of the causal link between long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality under a set of causal inference assumptions. Using five distinct approaches, we found that a decrease in PM2.5 (by 10 micrograms per cubic meter) leads to a statistically significant 6 to 7% decrease in mortality risk. Based on these models, lowering the air quality standard to 10 micrograms per cubic meter would save 143,257 lives (95% confidence interval, 115,581 to 170,645) in one decade. Our study provides the most comprehensive evidence to date of the link between long-term PM2.5 exposure and mortality, even at levels below current standards.

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