Subsurface warm biases in the tropical Atlantic and their attributions to the role of wind forcing and ocean vertical mixing

Realistic ocean subsurface simulations of thermal structure and variation are critically important to the success in climate prediction and projection; currently, substantial systematic subsurface biases still exist in the state-of-the-art ocean and climate models. In this paper, subsurface biases in the tropical Atlantic (TA) are investigated by analyzing simulations from OMIP and conducting POP2-based ocean-only experiments. The subsurface biases are prominent in almost all OMIP simulations, characterized by two warm bias patches off the equator. By conducting two groups of POP2-based ocean-only experiments, two potential origins of the biases are explored, including uncertainties in wind forcing and vertical mixing parameterization, respectively. It is illustrated that the warm bias near 10° N can be slightly reduced by modulating prescribed wind field, and the warm biases over the entire basin are significantly reduced by reducing background diffusivity in the ocean interior in ways to match observations. By conducting heat budget analysis, it is found that the improved subsurface simulations are attributed to the enhanced cooling effect by constraining the vertical mixing diffusivity in terms of the observational estimate, implying that the overestimation of vertical mixing is primarily responsible for the subsurface warm biases in the TA. Since the climate simulation is very sensitive to the vertical mixing parameterization, more accurate representations of ocean vertical mixing are clearly needed in ocean and climate models.

Estimating the role of climate internal variability and source of uncertainties in hydrological climate-impact projections

Hydrological climate-impact projections in future are limited by large uncertainties from various sources. Therefore, this study aimed to explore and estimate the sources of uncertainties involved in climate changing impacted assessment in a representative watershed of Northeastern China. Moreover, recent researches indicated that the climate internal variability (CIV) plays an important role in various of hydrological climate-impact projections. Six downscaled Global climate models (GCMs) under two emission scenarios and a calibrate Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model were used to obtain hydrological projections in future periods. The CIV and signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) are investigated to analyze the the role of internal variability in hydrological projections. The results shows that the internal variability shows a considerable influence on hydrological projections, which need be partitioned and quantified particularly. Moreover, it worth noting the CIV can propagate from precipitation and ET to runoff projections through the hydrological simulation process. In order to partition the CIV and sources of uncertainties, the uncertainty decomposed frameworks based on analysis of variance (ANOVA) are established. The results demonstrate that the CIV and GCMs are the dominate contributors of runoff in rainy season. In contrast, the CIV and SWAT model parameter sets provided obvious uncertainty to runoff in January to May and October to December. The findings of this study advised that the uncertainty is complex in hydrological simulation process hence, it is meaning and necessary to estimate the uncertainty in climate simulation process, the uncertainty analysis results can provide effectively efforts to reduce uncertainty and then give some positive suggestions to stakeholders for adaption countermeasure under climate change.

Linking Equatorial African precipitation to Kelvin wave processes in the CP4-Africa convection-permitting regional climate simulation

Observational studies have shown the link between Convectively Coupled KelvinWaves (CCKWs) and eastward propagating rainfall anomalies. We explore the mechanisms in which CCKWs modulate the propagation of precipitation from west to east over Equatorial Africa. We examine a multi-year state-of-the-art Africa-wide climate simulation from a convection permitting model (CP4A) along with a parameterised global driving-model simulation (G25) and evaluate both against observations (TRMM) and ERA-Interim (ERA-I), with a focus on precipitation and Kelvin wave activity. We show that the two important related processes through which CCKWs influence the propagation of convection and precipitation from west to east across Equatorial Africa are: 1) low-level westerly wind anomalies that lead to increased low-level convergence, and 2) westerly moisture flux anomalies that amplify the lower-to-mid-tropospheric specific humidity. We identify Kelvin wave activity using zonal wind and geopotential height. Using lagged composite analysis, we show that modelled precipitation over Equatorial Africa can capture the eastward propagating precipitation signal that is associated with CCKWs. Composite analysis on strong (high-amplitude) CCKWs shows that both CP4A and G25 capture the connection between the eastward propagating precipitation anomalies and CCKWs. In comparison to TRMM, however, the precipitation signal is weaker in G25, while CP4A has a more realistic signal. Results show that both CP4A and G25 generally simulate the key horizontal structure of CCKWs, with anomalous low-level westerlies in phase with positive precipitation anomalies. These findings suggest that for operational forecasting, it is important to monitor the day-to-day Kelvin wave activity across Equatorial Africa.

Asian monsoon projection with a new large-scale monsoon definition

This paper focuses on Asian monsoon projection with CMIP5 multi-model outputs. A large-scale monsoon herewith is defined as a vector field of vertically integrated moisture flux from the surface to 500 hPa. Results demonstrate that the model ensemble mean underestimated the summer monsoon and overestimated slightly the winter monsoon over South Asia in both CMIP5 historical climate simulation and the monsoon projection for 2006–2015. The major of the bias is the model climate drift (MCD), which is removed in the monsoon projection for 2016–2045 under scenarios RCP4.5 for reducing the uncertainty. The projection shows that two increased moisture flows northward appeared across the Equator of Indian Ocean, the first is nearby Somalia coast toward northwestern part of South Asia, leading to excess rainfall in where the wet jet could reach, and the second starts from the equatorial Sect. (80°E–100°E) toward northeastern Bay of Bengal, leading to more rainfall spreading over the northwestern coast of Indochina Peninsula. In addition, a westward monsoon flow is intensified over the Peninsula leading to local climate moisture transport belt shifted onto South China Sea, which would reduce moisture transport toward Southwest China on one hand, and transport more moisture onto the southeast coast of the China mainland. The anomalous monsoon would result in a dry climate in Northwest China and wet climate in the coast belt during summer monsoon season for the period. Besides, the Asian winter monsoon would be seemingly intensified slightly over South Asia, which would bring a dry winter climate to Indian subcontinent, Northwest China, but would be more rainfall in southeast part of Arabian Peninsula with global climate warming.

Large scale PVA modelling of insects in cultivated grasslands: the role of dispersal in mitigating the effects of management schedules under climate change

In many species, dispersal is decisive for survival in a changing climate. Simulation models for population dynamics under climate change thus need to account for this factor. Moreover, large numbers of species inhabiting agricultural landscapes are subject to disturbances induced by human land use. We included dispersal in the HiLEG model that we previously developed to study the interaction between climate change and agricultural land use in single populations. Here, the model was parameterized for the large marsh grasshopper (LMG) in cultivated grasslands of North Germany to analyze (1) the species development and dispersal success depending on severity of climate change in sub regions, (2) the additional effect of grassland cover on dispersal success, and (3) the role of dispersal in compensating for detrimental grassland mowing. Our model simulated population dynamics in 60-year periods (2020-2079) on a fine temporal (daily) and high spatial (250 x 250 m2) scale in 107 sub regions, altogether encompassing a range of different grassland cover, climate change projections and mowing schedules. We show that climate change alone would allow the LMG to thrive and expand, while grassland cover played a minor role. Some mowing schedules that were harmful to the LMG nevertheless allowed the species to moderately expand its range. Especially under minor climate change, in many sub regions dispersal allowed for mowing early in the year, which is economically beneficial for farmers. More severe climate change could facilitate LMG expansion to uninhabited regions, but would require suitable mowing schedules along the path. These insights can be transferred to other species, given that the LMG is considered a representative of grassland communities. For more specific predictions on the dynamics of other species affected by climate change and land use, the publicly available HiLEG model can be easily adapted to the characteristics of their life cycle.

Asian Monsoon Projection With a New Large-Scale Monsoon Definition

This paper focuses on Asian monsoon projection with CMIP5 multi-model outputs. A large-scale monsoon herewith is defined as a vector field of vertically integrated moisture flux from the surface to 500 hPa. Results demonstrate that the model ensemble mean underestimated the summer monsoon and overestimated slightly the winter monsoon over South Asia in both CMIP5 historical climate simulation and the monsoon projection for 2006-2015. The major of the bias is the model climate drift (MCD), which is removed in the monsoon projection for 2016 -2045 under scenarios RCP4.5 for reducing the uncertainty. The projection shows that two increased moisture flows northward appeared across the Equator of Indian Ocean, the first is nearby Somalia coast toward northwestern part of South Asia, leading to excess rainfall in where the wet jet could reach, and the second starts from the equatorial section (80°E-100°E) toward northeastern Bay of Bengal, leading to more rainfall spreading over the northwestern coast of Indochina Peninsula. In addition, a westward monsoon flow is intensified over the Peninsula leading to local climate moisture transport belt shifted onto South China Sea, which would reduce moisture transport toward Southwest China on one hand, and transport more moisture onto the southeast coast of the China mainland. The anomalous monsoon would result in a dry climate in Northwest China and wet climate in the coast belt during summer monsoon season for the period. Besides, the Asian winter monsoon would be seemingly intensified slightly over South Asia, which would bring a dry winter climate to Indian subcontinent, Northwest China, but would be more rainfall in southeast part of Arabian peninsula with global climate warming.