scholarly journals Crash Injury Severity Prediction Using an Ordinal Classification Machine Learning Approach

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (21) ◽  
pp. 11564
Author(s):  
Shengxue Zhu ◽  
Ke Wang ◽  
Chongyi Li
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Combination Method ◽  
Classification Methods ◽  
Ordinal Classification ◽  
Machine Learning Classification ◽  
Severity Prediction ◽  
Severity Levels ◽  
Nominal Classification ◽  
Crash Injury Severity

In many related works, nominal classification algorithms ignore the order between injury severity levels and make sub-optimal predictions. Existing ordinal classification methods suffer rank inconsistency and rank non-monotonicity. The aim of this paper is to propose an ordinal classification approach to predict traffic crash injury severity and to test its performance over existing machine learning classification methods. First, we compare the performance of the neural network, XGBoost, and SVM classifiers in injury severity prediction. Second, we utilize a severity category-combination method with oversampling to relieve the class-imbalance problem prevalent in crash data. Third, we take advantage of probability calibration and the optimal probability threshold moving to improve the prediction ability of ordinal classification. The proposed approach can satisfy the rank consistency and rank monotonicity requirement and is proved to be superior to other ordinal classification methods and nominal classification machine learning by statistical significance test. Important factors relating to injury severity are selected based on their permutation feature importance scores. We find that converting severity levels into three classes, minor injury, moderate injury, and serious injury, can substantially improve the prediction precision.

scholarly journals Predicting Crash Injury Severity with Machine Learning Algorithm Synergized with Clustering Technique: A Promising Protocol

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (15) ◽  
pp. 5497
Author(s):  
Khaled Assi ◽  
Syed Masiur Rahman ◽  
Umer Mansoor ◽  
Nedal Ratrout
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Clustering Algorithm ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Severity Level ◽  
Feed Forward ◽  
Fuzzy C Means ◽  
Severity Prediction ◽  
Crash Injury Severity

Predicting crash injury severity is a crucial constituent of reducing the consequences of traffic crashes. This study developed machine learning (ML) models to predict crash injury severity using 15 crash-related parameters. Separate ML models for each cluster were obtained using fuzzy c-means, which enhanced the predicting capability. Finally, four ML models were developed: feed-forward neural networks (FNN), support vector machine (SVM), fuzzy C-means clustering based feed-forward neural network (FNN-FCM), and fuzzy c-means based support vector machine (SVM-FCM). Features that were easily identified with little investigation on crash sites were used as an input so that the trauma center can predict the crash severity level based on the initial information provided from the crash site and prepare accordingly for the treatment of the victims. The input parameters mainly include vehicle attributes and road condition attributes. This study used the crash database of Great Britain for the years 2011–2016. A random sample of crashes representing each year was used considering the same share of severe and non-severe crashes. The models were compared based on injury severity prediction accuracy, sensitivity, precision, and harmonic mean of sensitivity and precision (i.e., F1 score). The SVM-FCM model outperformed the other developed models in terms of accuracy and F1 score in predicting the injury severity level of severe and non-severe crashes. This study concluded that the FCM clustering algorithm enhanced the prediction power of FNN and SVM models.

scholarly journals Applying Machine Learning for Improving Performance Classification on Driving Behavior

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 8
Author(s):  
Ahmad Iwan Fadli ◽  
Selo Sulistyo ◽  
Sigit Wibowo
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Traffic Accident ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Detection System ◽  
Difficult Problem ◽  
Sensor Data ◽  
Driving Safety ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Classification Methods ◽  
Machine Learning Classification

Traffic accident is a very difficult problem to handle on a large scale in a country. Indonesia is one of the most populated, developing countries that use vehicles for daily activities as its main transportation.  It is also the country with the largest number of car users in Southeast Asia, so driving safety needs to be considered. Using machine learning classification method to determine whether a driver is driving safely or not can help reduce the risk of driving accidents. We created a detection system to classify whether the driver is driving safely or unsafely using trip sensor data, which include Gyroscope, Acceleration, and GPS. The classification methods used in this study are Random Forest (RF) classification algorithm, Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) by improving data preprocessing using feature extraction and oversampling methods. This study shows that RF has the best performance with 98% accuracy, 98% precision, and 97% sensitivity using the proposed preprocessing stages compared to SVM or MLP.

Crash Data-Based Investigation into How Injury Severity Is Affected by Driver Errors

2020 ◽  
Vol 2674 (5) ◽  
pp. 452-464 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mohammad Razaur Rahman Shaon ◽  
Xiao Qin
Keyword(s):  
Injury Severity ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Severe Injuries ◽  
Crash Data ◽  
Severity Prediction ◽  
Safety Interventions ◽  
Driving Task ◽  
Driver Error ◽  
Crash Characteristics ◽  
Crash Injury Severity

Unsafe driving behaviors, driver limitations, and conditions that lead to a crash are usually referred to as driver errors. Even though driver errors are widely cited as a critical reason for crash occurrence in crash reports and safety literature, the discussion on their consequences is limited. This study aims to quantify the effect of driver errors on crash injury severity. To assist this investigation, driver errors were categorized as sequential events in a driving task. Possible combinations of driver error categories were created and ranked based on statistical dependences between error combinations and injury severity levels. Binary logit models were then developed to show that typical variables used to model injury severity such as driver characteristics, roadway characteristics, environmental factors, and crash characteristics are inadequate to explain driver errors, especially the complicated ones. Next, ordinal probit models were applied to quantify the effect of driver errors on injury severity for rural crashes. Superior model performance is observed when driver error combinations were modeled along with typical crash variables to predict the injury outcome. Modeling results also illustrate that more severe crashes tend to occur when the driver makes multiple mistakes. Therefore, incorporating driver errors in crash injury severity prediction not only improves prediction accuracy but also enhances our understanding of what error(s) may lead to more severe injuries so that safety interventions can be recommended accordingly.

scholarly journals Study on Crash Injury Severity Prediction of Autonomous Vehicles for Different Emergency Decisions Based on Support Vector Machine Model

Electronics ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (12) ◽  
pp. 381 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yaping Liao ◽  
Junyou Zhang ◽  
Shufeng Wang ◽  
Sixian Li ◽  
Jian Han
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Autonomous Vehicles ◽  
Injury Severity ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Severity Prediction ◽  
Emergency Decision ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Crash Injury Severity

Motor vehicle crashes remain a leading cause of life and property loss to society. Autonomous vehicles can mitigate the losses by making appropriate emergency decision, and the crash injury severity prediction model is the basis for autonomous vehicles to make decisions in emergency situations. In this paper, based on the support vector machine (SVM) model and NASS/GES crash data, three SVM crash injury severity prediction models (B-SVM, T-SVM, and BT-SVM) corresponding to braking, turning, and braking + turning respectively are established. The vehicle relative speed (REL_SPEED) and the gross vehicle weight rating (GVWR) are introduced into the impact indicators of the prediction models. Secondly, the ordered logit (OL) and back propagation neural network (BPNN) models are established to validate the accuracy of the SVM models. The results show that the SVM models have the best performance than the other two. Next, the impact of REL_SPEED and GVWR on injury severity is analyzed quantitatively by the sensitivity analysis, the results demonstrate that the increase of REL_SPEED and GVWR will make vehicle crash more serious. Finally, the same crash samples under normal road and environmental conditions are input into B-SVM, T-SVM, and BT-SVM respectively, the output results are compared and analyzed. The results show that with other conditions being the same, as the REL_SPEED increased from the low (0–20 mph) to middle (20–45 mph) and then to the high range (45–75 mph), the best emergency decision with the minimum crash injury severity will gradually transition from braking to turning and then to braking + turning.

scholarly journals Machine Learning Approach to Classify Rain Type Based on Thies Disdrometers and Cloud Observations

Atmosphere ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wael Ghada ◽  
Nicole Estrella ◽  
Annette Menzel
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Geographical Location ◽  
Classification Performance ◽  
Classification Methods ◽  
Reference Dataset ◽  
Machine Learning Classification ◽  
Machine Learning Approach ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Microstructure Parameters

Rain microstructure parameters assessed by disdrometers are commonly used to classify rain into convective and stratiform. However, different types of disdrometer result in different values for these parameters. This in turn potentially deteriorates the quality of rain type classifications. Thies disdrometer measurements at two sites in Bavaria in southern Germany were combined with cloud observations to construct a set of clear convective and stratiform intervals. This reference dataset was used to study the performance of classification methods from the literature based on the rain microstructure. We also explored the possibility of improving the performance of these methods by tuning the decision boundary. We further identified highly discriminant rain microstructure parameters and used these parameters in five machine-learning classification models. Our results confirm the potential of achieving high classification performance by applying the concepts of machine learning compared to already available methods. Machine-learning classification methods provide a concrete and flexible procedure that is applicable regardless of the geographical location or the device. The suggested procedure for classifying rain types is recommended prior to studying rain microstructure variability or any attempts at improving radar estimations of rain intensity.

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