scholarly journals Pricing with Variance Gamma Information

Risks ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Lane P. Hughston ◽  
Leandro Sánchez-Betancourt
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Markov Property ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Fixed Time ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
General Situation ◽  
Information Process ◽  
Variance Gamma ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
Market Factor

In the information-based pricing framework of Brody, Hughston & Macrina, the market filtration {Ft}t≥0 is generated by an information process {ξt}t≥0 defined in such a way that at some fixed time T an FT-measurable random variable XT is “revealed”. A cash flow HT is taken to depend on the market factor XT, and one considers the valuation of a financial asset that delivers HT at time T. The value of the asset St at any time t∈[0,T) is the discounted conditional expectation of HT with respect to Ft, where the expectation is under the risk neutral measure and the interest rate is constant. Then ST−=HT, and St=0 for t≥T. In the general situation one has a countable number of cash flows, and each cash flow can depend on a vector of market factors, each associated with an information process. In the present work we introduce a new process, which we call the normalized variance-gamma bridge. We show that the normalized variance-gamma bridge and the associated gamma bridge are jointly Markovian. From these processes, together with the specification of a market factor XT, we construct a so-called variance-gamma information process. The filtration is then taken to be generated by the information process together with the gamma bridge. We show that the resulting extended information process has the Markov property and hence can be used to develop pricing models for a variety of different financial assets, several examples of which are discussed in detail.

scholarly journals INFORMATION-BASED ASSET PRICING

2008 ◽  
Vol 11 (01) ◽  
pp. 107-142 ◽  
Author(s):  
DORJE C. BRODY ◽  
LANE P. HUGHSTON ◽  
ANDREA MACRINA
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Brownian Bridge ◽  
Asset Price ◽  
Random Variable ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Independent Random Variables ◽  
Information Process ◽  
Noisy Information ◽  
Market Factors

A new framework for asset price dynamics is introduced in which the concept of noisy information about future cash flows is used to derive the corresponding price processes. In this framework an asset is defined by its cash-flow structure. Each cash flow is modelled by a random variable that can be expressed as a function of a collection of independent random variables called market factors. With each such "X-factor" we associate a market information process, the values of which we assume are accessible to market participants. Each information process consists of a sum of two terms; one contains true information about the value of the associated market factor, and the other represents "noise". The noise term is modelled by an independent Brownian bridge that spans the interval from the present to the time at which the value of the factor is revealed. The market filtration is assumed to be that generated by the aggregate of the independent information processes. The price of an asset is given by the expectation of the discounted cash flows in the risk-neutral measure, conditional on the information provided by the market filtration. In the case where the cash flows are the dividend payments associated with equities, an explicit model is obtained for the share-price process. Dividend growth is taken into account by introducing appropriate structure on the market factors. The prices of options on dividend-paying assets are derived. Remarkably, the resulting formula for the price of a European-style call option is of the Black–Scholes–Merton type. We consider the case where the rate at which information is revealed to the market is constant, and the case where the information rate varies in time. Option pricing formulae are obtained for both cases. The information-based framework generates a natural explanation for the origin of stochastic volatility in financial markets, without the need for specifying on an ad hoc basis the dynamics of the volatility.

scholarly journals Overview of actions to strengthen financial stability of companies

2020 ◽  
Vol 159 ◽  
pp. 04016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fariza Yerdavletova ◽  
Bayan Ermekbaeva ◽  
Gulnar Zhunissova ◽  
Zhanar Mukhametzhanova
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Accounts Receivable ◽  
Financial Condition ◽  
Funding Sources ◽  
Return On Capital ◽  
Three Stages ◽  
Market Factors ◽  
Negative Factors

Based on a review of the recommendations of various scientists, the article presents measures to strengthen the solvency and financial stability of companies in various fields of production. These include effective receivables management, accelerated capital turnover, increased profits and cash flow. The article reveals the concept of financial stability as the main criteria of the company’s financial condition. As well the negative aspects of the financial condition of companies are discussed. All negative factors divided into three groups based on their characteristics: general economic factors, state factors, and market factors. The model of accounts receivable management, which includes three stages is presented. It is concluded that a high share of accounts receivable as part of assets can lead any company to loss of solvency. Ways to improve the structure of funding sources, aspects of increasing return on capital are considered. Several recommendations given to reduce the duration of capital turnover in order to increase the company’s solvency. As a factor of increasing profits a possible ways of minimizing costs are investigated. Ways of increasing production volumes are highlighted and described, measures to increase cash flow are analyzed. Considerable attention is paid to the irrational management of cash flows.

Analyzing the figures of consolidated statement of cash flows of the world's biggest publicly traded oil and gas corporations

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (6) ◽  
pp. 1101-1120
Author(s):  
O.V. Shimko
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Capital Expenditures ◽  
Publicly Traded ◽  
The Public ◽  
Statement Of Cash Flows ◽  
Oil And Gas Companies

Subject. The article investigates key figures disclosed in consolidated cash flow statements of 25 leading publicly traded oil and gas companies from 2006 to 2018. Objectives. The focus is on determining the current level of values of the main components of consolidated statement of cash flows prepared by leading publicly traded oil and gas companies, identifying key trends within the studied period and factors that led to any transformation. Methods. The study draws on methods of comparative and financial-economic analysis, as well as generalization of materials of consolidated cash flow statements. Results. The comprehensive analysis of annual reports of 25 oil and gas companies enabled to determine changes in the key figures and their relation in the structure of consolidated cash flow statements in the public sector of the industry. It also established main factors that contributed to the changes. Conclusions. In the period under study, I revealed an increase in cash from operating activities; established that capital expenditures in the public sector of the industry show an overall upward trend and depend on the level of oil prices. The analysis demonstrated that even integrated companies’ upstream segment prevail in the capital expenditures structure. The study also unveiled an increase in dividend payments, which, most of the time, exceeded free cash flows thus increasing the debt burden.

ANALISIS EKSPOSUR EKONOMI DAN FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHINYA PADA PERUSAHAAN ROKOK YANG TERCATAT DI BEI

Wahana ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 98-109
Author(s):  
Ida Musdafia Ibrahim ◽  
Arif Haryono
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Firm Value ◽  
Tobacco Industry ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Exchange Rate Risk ◽  
Positive Effects ◽  
Rate Risk

This study aims to analyze economic exposures and its factors namely exchange rates and inflation, that influence firm value as reflected through firm cash flow. Analytical method used Ordinary Least Square and eviews as analytical tool. This study used secondary data and cigarette industry companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange as samples along 2008 to 2017. Samples choosing method used purposive sampling based on determined criterias. The results showed that partially economic exposure had positive effects on firm value but insignificant. These could be seen from the economic exposure factors influncenced namely exchange rates and inflations.The exchange rate risk has low influenced cash flow was caused of the tobacco industry has low level of export/import.Enhance,inflation also had low effect on cash flow was caused of the tendency of cigarette consumers will continue to buy cigarettes even though its price increases. In short, economic exposure in the tobacco industry has low influence toward firms value. Hence, simultaneously changes in exchange rates and inflation which are economic exposure indicators have a significant effect on cash flows.  Keywords: Economic Exposure, Exchange Rate Risk, Inflation Risk, Firms Value, Cash Flow

An Analysis of the Sources of Value Loss Following Financial Restatements

2021 ◽  
pp. 0148558X2198991
Author(s):  
Philip K. Hong ◽  
Jaywon Lee ◽  
Sang-Hyun Park ◽  
Sukesh Patro
Keyword(s):  
Stock Returns ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Discount Rate ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Financial Fraud ◽  
Earnings Persistence ◽  
Flow Component ◽  
Financial Restatements ◽  
Value Loss

We decompose the total value loss around firms’ announcements of financial restatements into components arising from investors’ revisions in cash flows and discount rates. First, relative to population benchmarks, restatements represent circumstances in which the cash flow component becomes more important in explaining valuations. While we find significant contributions from both sources, with the cash flow component explaining more than 33% of the variation in stock returns surrounding restatement announcements, this component explains only 13% to 22% in comparable non-restating firms. When restatements are caused by underlying financial fraud, the discount rate impact becomes more important, explaining about 88% of return variation. On the contrary, the cash flow impact is relatively larger for firms with higher earnings persistence or restatements associated with errors. Our decomposition of the value loss helps explain returns in the post-announcement period. Firms with a higher relative discount rate impact experience a significant downward stock price drift after the initial announcement-related price decline. For firms with a higher relative cash flow impact, the evidence suggests the initial impact of the restatement announcement is more complete with no subsequent drift pattern. Our findings close gaps in the evidence on financial restatements and extend the literature on the drivers of stock price movements.

scholarly journals Study on Companies from the Energy Sector from the Perspective of Performance through the Operating Cash Flow

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (12) ◽  
pp. 3667
Author(s):  
Claudia Diana Sabău-Popa ◽  
Luminița Rus ◽  
Dana Simona Gherai ◽  
Codruța Mare ◽  
Ioan Gheorghe Țara
Keyword(s):  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Average Duration ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Energy Sector ◽  
Or Management ◽  
Operating Cash Flow ◽  
The Impact

In this paper we analyzed the link between companies’ performance, in terms of cash and income, and the labor productivity or management rates, in case of the companies from the energy sector listed on the Bucharest Stock Exchange. We focused on the energy sector because of the impact that its expansion has on the evolution of economies around the world and because of its dynamics in the sense of gradually shifting to the use of energy from renewable sources. We have used panel regression models to analyze the operating cash flow and the profitability rates and the determination of a causal or dependency relationship with labor productivity or management rates. The results of this study show a significant negative correlation between operating cash flows and the average duration of stock rotation, and no correlation between productivity and the operating cash flow. Instead, the average duration of stock turnover does not at all influence the profitability rates, and productivity is always significant for the return on assets, ie forthe return on equitywith a positive coefficient, as expected. The gap between the average duration of payment of suppliers and the average duration of receivables does not significantly influence neither the cash flow nor the rates of return.

Where Did All the Dollars Go? The Effect of Cash Flows on Capital and Asset Structure

2011 ◽  
Vol 46 (5) ◽  
pp. 1259-1294 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sudipto Dasgupta ◽  
Thomas H. Noe ◽  
Zhen Wang
Keyword(s):  
Cash Flow ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Goods Market ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Debt Market ◽  
Short And Long Term

AbstractThis paper documents the short- and long-term balance sheet effect of cash flows. We show that cash savings in the short run and debt reduction in both the short and the long run account for a substantial fraction of cash flow use. Although, in the long run, investment exhibits substantial sensitivity to cash flows, investment does not absorb the entire cash flow shock. In fact, the tighter the financial constraints, the smaller the fraction of cash flow absorbed by investment and the more by leverage reduction. Firms stage their response to increases in cash flow, delaying investment while building up cash stocks and reducing leverage. These results suggest that much of the short-run economic effect of cash flow shocks to the corporate sector may be channeled into the corporate debt market rather than the capital goods market, especially when financing constraints tighten.

scholarly journals Financial optimisation of the scheduling for the multi-stage project

2017 ◽  
Vol 65 (6) ◽  
pp. 899-908
Author(s):  
M. Klimek ◽  
P. Łebkowski
Keyword(s):  
Simulated Annealing ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Project Scheduling ◽  
Simulated Annealing Algorithm ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Standard Test ◽  
Resource Constrained ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Multi Stage ◽  
Annealing Algorithm

AbstractThe paper analyses the problem of discounted cash flow maximising for the resource-constrained project scheduling from the project contractor’s perspective. Financial optimisation for the multi-stage project is considered. Cash outflows are the contactor’s expenses related to activity execution. Cash inflows are the client’s payments for the completed milestones. To solve the problem, the procedure of backward scheduling taking into account contractual milestones is proposed. The effectiveness of this procedure, as used to generate solutions for the simulated annealing algorithm, is verified with use of standard test instances with additionally defined cash flows and contractual milestones.

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