scholarly journals Assessing Future Impacts of Climate Change on Water Supply System Performance: Application to the Pozzillo Reservoir in Sicily, Italy

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (12) ◽  
pp. 2531 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peres ◽  
Modica ◽  
Cancelliere
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Supply ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Supply System ◽  
Water Supply System ◽  
Reservoir Inflow ◽  
Emissions Scenario ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Climate change induced by greenhouse gas emissions is expected to alter the natural availability of water, affecting domestic, agricultural and industrial uses. This work aims at assessing the possible future impacts of climate change on precipitation, temperature and runoff, and to simulate the effects on reservoir demand–performance curves. To this aim, a modeling chain is set up, based on the combined use of regional climate models (RCMs) and water supply system simulation models. The methodology is applied to the Pozzillo reservoir, located in Sicily (Italy), which has experienced several droughts in the past. We use an RCM model that, based on a previous study, has proved to be the most reliable in the area, among those of the EURO-CORDEX initiative. RCM precipitation and temperature monthly time series are used to generate future reservoir inflow data, according to two representative concentration pathways, RCP4.5 (intermediate emissions scenario) and RCP8.5 (high emissions scenario) and a two-step bias correction procedure. Simulation of the reservoir indicated that, due to reservoir inflow reduction induced by climate change, performances of the Pozzillo reservoir are predicted to decrease significantly in the future, with impacts of RCP8.5 generally higher than RCP4.5.

scholarly journals Evaluating the impacts of climate change on diurnal wind power cycles using multiple regional climate models

2015 ◽  
Vol 26 (3) ◽  
pp. 192-201 ◽  
Author(s):  
Scott D. Goddard ◽  
Marc G. Genton ◽  
Amanda S. Hering ◽  
Stephan R. Sain
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Power Cycles ◽  
Diurnal Wind ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals Impacts of climate change on groundwater droughts by means of standardized indices and regional climate models

2021 ◽  
pp. 127154
Author(s):  
Daniele Secci ◽  
Maria Giovanna Tanda ◽  
Marco D'Oria ◽  
Valeria Todaro ◽  
Camilla Fagandini
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

scholarly journals An Ensemble Framework to Investigate Wind Energy Sustainability Considering Climate Change Impacts

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 876 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shengjin Wang ◽  
Hongru Yang ◽  
Quoc Bao Pham ◽  
Dao Nguyen Khoi ◽  
Pham Thi Thao Nhi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
High Energy ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Wind power is a key element for future renewable energy resources and plays a vital role in sustainable development. Global warming and future climate conditions are going to impact many atmospheric, oceanic, and earth systems. In this study, impacts of climate change on wind power resources under future climatic conditions are evaluated for the Persian Gulf to explore the sustainability of this kind of energy for present and future developments. To that end, three regional climate models obtained from coordinated regional downscaling experiment (CRODEX), including daily simulations of near-surface wind speeds for a 20-year period in the present and future, were considered. Prior to computing the wind power at turbine hub-height, historical simulations of CORDEX were evaluated versus ERA-Interim wind outputs to determine the accuracy of the regional climate models. An attempt was made to build an ensemble model from available models by assigning weights to the models based on their merits. Subsequently, the wind power at the turbine hub-height was computed for historical and future periods to detect the impacts of climate change. Some points with a relatively high energy potential were selected as energy hotspots for further investigations. The results revealed that the mean annual wind power over the study area changed remarkably, which is of great importance for sustainable developments. Moreover, the results of the directional investigations showed roughly the same directional distribution for the future period as the past.

scholarly journals Water Budgets of Managed Forests in Northeast Germany under Climate Change—Results from a Model Study on Forest Monitoring Sites

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (5) ◽  
pp. 2403
Author(s):  
Daniel Ziche ◽  
Winfried Riek ◽  
Alexander Russ ◽  
Rainer Hentschel ◽  
Jan Martin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Realistic Model ◽  
Forest Monitoring ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Historical Time ◽  
Time Period

To develop measures to reduce the vulnerability of forests to drought, it is necessary to estimate specific water balances in sites and to estimate their development with climate change scenarios. We quantified the water balance of seven forest monitoring sites in northeast Germany for the historical time period 1961–2019, and for climate change projections for the time period 2010–2100. We used the LWF-BROOK90 hydrological model forced with historical data, and bias-adjusted data from two models of the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) downscaled with regional climate models under the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) 2.6 and 8.5. Site-specific monitoring data were used to give a realistic model input and to calibrate and validate the model. The results revealed significant trends (evapotranspiration, dry days (actual/potential transpiration < 0.7)) toward drier conditions within the historical time period and demonstrate the extreme conditions of 2018 and 2019. Under RCP8.5, both models simulate an increase in evapotranspiration and dry days. The response of precipitation to climate change is ambiguous, with increasing precipitation with one model. Under RCP2.6, both models do not reveal an increase in drought in 2071–2100 compared to 1990–2019. The current temperature increase fits RCP8.5 simulations, suggesting that this scenario is more realistic than RCP2.6.

scholarly journals Evaluation of uncertainties in mean and extreme precipitation under climate change for northwestern Mediterranean watersheds from high-resolution Med and Euro-CORDEX ensembles

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 673-687 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antoine Colmet-Daage ◽  
Emilia Sanchez-Gomez ◽  
Sophie Ricci ◽  
Cécile Llovel ◽  
Valérie Borrell Estupina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Historical Period ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Extreme Precipitation Events ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. The climate change impact on mean and extreme precipitation events in the northern Mediterranean region is assessed using high-resolution EuroCORDEX and MedCORDEX simulations. The focus is made on three regions, Lez and Aude located in France, and Muga located in northeastern Spain, and eight pairs of global and regional climate models are analyzed with respect to the SAFRAN product. First the model skills are evaluated in terms of bias for the precipitation annual cycle over historical period. Then future changes in extreme precipitation, under two emission scenarios, are estimated through the computation of past/future change coefficients of quantile-ranked model precipitation outputs. Over the 1981–2010 period, the cumulative precipitation is overestimated for most models over the mountainous regions and underestimated over the coastal regions in autumn and higher-order quantile. The ensemble mean and the spread for future period remain unchanged under RCP4.5 scenario and decrease under RCP8.5 scenario. Extreme precipitation events are intensified over the three catchments with a smaller ensemble spread under RCP8.5 revealing more evident changes, especially in the later part of the 21st century.

Optimized planning and operation of interconnected multi-purpose reservoir systems using integrated modeling for climate change adaptation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Patrick Nistahl ◽  
Tim Müller ◽  
Gerhard Riedel ◽  
Hannes Müller-Thomy ◽  
Günter Meon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reservoir Operation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Performance Criteria ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Operation Model

&lt;p&gt;Climate change impact studies performed for Northern Germany indicate a growing demand for water storage capacity to account for flood protection, low flow augmentation, drinking and agricultural water supply. At the same time, larger storage volumes for hydropower plants can be used to cope with the demands of changing energy supply from fossil to renewable energies. To tackle these challenges for the next decades, a novel reservoir system planning instrument is developed, which consists of combined numerical models and evaluation components. It allows to model simultaneously the current interconnected infrastructure of reservoirs as well as additional planning variants (structural and operational) as preparation for climate change. This planning instrument consists of a hydrological model and a detailed reservoir operation model.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;As hydrological model, the conceptual, semi-distributed version of PANTA RHEI is applied. &amp;#160;Bias-corrected regional climate models (based on the RCP 8.5 scenario) are used as meteorological input. The hydrological model is coupled with a detailed reservoir operation model that replicates the complex rules of various interconnected reservoirs based on an hourly time step including pumped storage plants, which may have a subsurface reservoir as a lower basin. Downstream of the reservoirs, the hydrological model is used for routing the reservoir outflows and simulating natural side inflows. In areas of particular interest for flood protection, the hydrological routing is substituted with 2D hydraulic models to calculate the flood risk in terms of expected annual flood damage based on resulting inundation areas.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;For the performance analysis, the simulation runs for all integrated modeling variants are evaluated for a reference period (1971-2000) and for future periods (2041-2070). Performance criteria involve flood protection, drinking water supply, low flow augmentation and energy production. These performance criteria will be used as stake holder information as well as a base for further optimization and ranking of the planning variants.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The combination of the hydrological model and the reservoir operation model shows a good performance of the existing complex hydraulic infrastructure using observed meteorological forcing as input. The usage of regional climate models as input shows a wide dispersion of several performance criteria, confirming the expected need for an innovative optimization scheme and the communication of the underlying uncertainties.&lt;/p&gt;

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