Planning for Unknown in The New Age of Digital: A Paradigm for Offshore Oil and Gas Risk Assessment and Management

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamed Hamedifar ◽  
Herve Wilczynski
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Cost Savings ◽  
Service Companies ◽  
Digital Work ◽  
Oil And Gas Operations ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management

Abstract Major Oil and Gas operators and service companies look to undertake large scale digital transformations aimed at producing integrated, connected, and intelligent enterprises. These transformations require accelerating the journey to the cloud to modernize the entire application portfolio. By transitioning to the cloud, firms enjoy improved data analytics which allow for evolution to next generation digital work environment. This shift, however, comes with workforce challenges. Employees in all categories and at most levels will require significant cross- and up-skilling to take full advantage of the digital transformation. As vendors, suppliers, service companies, and operators move products and equipment around an expanding ecosystem of assets, security threats are likely to increase due to further geopolitical instability. Data based decision making, which enables the optimization of assets and automation of operations to minimize workforce risk exposure must be implemented with consideration of enterprise risk reduction (across the asset and workforce operational risk life cycle). As Oil and Gas operations become more geographically dispersed and diverse, they are exposed to new and evolving risk factors which can directly impact value. These risk factors make asset acquisition, development, management, and maintenance all more challenging. Analyses of risk in a digital foundation risk-based platform is most valuable at the earliest stages of asset development in determining whether to proceed with the planned development through to end-of-life decommissioning. Successful firms must create an end-to-end digital roadmap which delineates between technical and transactional activities and outlines effective stakeholder engagement at each project stage. The fundamental thesis of this paper is that although risk can be mitigated and reduced through the introduction of digital tools into oil and gas operations, it can never be completely removed. Furthermore, while industry research on the impact of digitalization usually rely heavily on cost savings, optimization, and health, safety, and environment (HSE) related cases, they typically fail to consider the contribution of digitalization on risk assessment and management. This paper argues that we need to move away from the focus on cost savings, process optimization, and HSE metrics improvement metrics. This paper sets up a mechanism for developing risk-based strategies for implementation of digital solutions.

Methodological provisions for assessing scientific and technical risk and financial losses during development works to create complex technical systems

2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (10) ◽  
pp. 1933-1950
Author(s):  
Nikolai V. FIROV ◽  
Sergei A. SOROKIN
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Financial Resources ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Technical Risk ◽  
Complex Technical Systems ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management ◽  
Financial Losses

Subject. The article addresses scientific and technical risk and financial losses of the customer in the process of research and development works on the creation of complex technical systems. Objectives. The study aims at constructing and analyzing the dependence of scientific and technical risk and financial losses of the customer on the planned volume of development works and the financial resources invested in them. Methods. We apply methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics, system and regression analysis, risk assessment and management. The paper rests on data on completed development projects for complex technical systems creation. Results. We formulated methodological provisions for assessing scientific and technical risk, arising in the process of development works on complex technical systems. The paper presents an algorithm for calculating the expected financial losses from works implementation. The problem of minimizing financial losses associated with scientific and technical risk is formulated and formalized. The feasibility of proposed provisions and recommendations is confirmed by a practical example. Conclusions. To assess risks, it is important to consider the impact of the degree of difference between the main characteristics of developed product and its prototype on the required amount of works at development stage. This enables to build regression dependencies of the volume of works at the development stage on a specified factor, which are later used to assess the scientific and technical risk and associated financial losses.

Study of sand wave migration over five years as observed in two windfarm development areas, and the implications for building on moving substrates in the North Sea

2014 ◽  
Vol 105 (4) ◽  
pp. 241-249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken P. Games ◽  
David I. Gordon
Keyword(s):  
Case Studies ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Sand Wave ◽  
Sand Waves ◽  
Migration Rates ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Sea ◽  
Wave Migration ◽  
The Impact

ABSTRACTSand waves are well known indicators of a mobile seabed. What do we expect of these features in terms of migration rates and seabed scour? We discuss these effects on seabed structures, both for the Oil and Gas and the Windfarm Industries, and consider how these impact on turbines and buried cables. Two case studies are presented. The first concerns a windfarm with a five-year gap between the planning survey and a subsequent cable route and environmental assessment survey. This revealed large-scale movements of sand waves, with the displacement of an isolated feature of 155 m in five years. Secondly, another windfarm development involved a re-survey, again over a five-year period, but after the turbines had been installed. This showed movements of sand waves of ∼50 m in five years. Observations of the scour effects on the turbines are discussed. Both sites revealed the presence of barchans. Whilst these have been extensively studied on land, there are few examples of how they behave in the marine environment. The two case studies presented show that mass transport is potentially much greater than expected and that this has implications for choosing turbine locations, the effect of scour, and the impact these sediment movements are likely to have on power cables.

scholarly journals Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michalis I. Vousdoukas ◽  
Dimitrios Bouziotas ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer ◽  
Evangelos Voukouvalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policy-making and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight on the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the Coastal Flood Risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea-level (ESL); (ii) inundation modelling; (iii) the underlying uncertainty in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM); (iv) flood defence information; (v) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability; and (vi) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties to estimated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal and in the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, as well as their absolute/relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large-extent datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

scholarly journals A Review of the Canada Petroleum Resources Act and the Canada Oil and Gas Operations Act as the Legal Framework for Future Development in the Northwest Territories

2002 ◽  
Vol 40 (1) ◽  
pp. 83
Author(s):  
Raymond E. Quesnel
Keyword(s):  
Northwest Territories ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
East Coast ◽  
Historical Analysis ◽  
Legal Framework ◽  
Tenure System ◽  
Petroleum Resources ◽  
Legislative Framework ◽  
Oil And Gas Operations

This article examines the current core legislation that governs oil and gas activity in Canada's North. While there has been increased industry interest in the Northwest Territories, there has thus far been a lack of actual oil and gas projects against which to measure the efficacy of the current regime in the context of northern development. An historical analysis of the legislative developments indicates that the northern regime formed the basis for the legislative framework now governing east coast megaprojects. The author evaluates the current basis on which rights are granted and recorded, the tenure system, the royalty regime, and the project approval process. He concludes that, while the northern regime is suitable for large scale developments, it may require certain changes to accommodate smaller, more conventional projects likely to be undertaken.

Critical success factors for achieving environmental approvals

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (2) ◽  
pp. 694
Author(s):  
Petrina Raitt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Critical Success Factors ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Project Team ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Skill Sets ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Impact Reduction ◽  
The Impact

In recent years, industry has experienced increased regulatory scrutiny and public interest in the environmental approvals of oil and gas activities, with common challenges across industry in areas such as impact and risk assessment, stakeholder consultation and risk and impact reduction measure application. Some critical success factors for a project team to meet its targets for environmental approval are: • early planning • access to information • use of appropriately skilled resources. Environmental approvals take time, and scheduling and planning for their preparation and submission should be high on the list of priorities when planning a project. Understanding the regulatory process and knowing what level of information is required at each point is critical. Information to support environmental approvals is available in various forms, including referencing previous approval documentation, reviewing scientific literature and leveraging the skills and experience of project team members. With a common regulator across all offshore petroleum approvals, having ready access to the best and most up-to-date information is critical to meet their expectations. The impact and risk assessment process that underpins the environmental approval is complex and requires a step-by-step approach to establish context (both technical and environmental), identify and assess impacts and propose controls, all while seeking input from stakeholders and monitoring performance. Each of these tasks requires different skill sets, and the key to success is in recognising this and responding by finding the right combination of competency and experience in project team resources. This paper discusses these critical success factors and explores in detail the skill sets that best support impact and risk assessment and subsequent environmental approval for oil and gas activities in Australia.

ENVIRONMENTAL RISK MANAGEMENT: A PROPOSED SCHEME

1997 ◽  
Vol 37 (1) ◽  
pp. 714
Author(s):  
H.B. Goff ◽  
R.K. Steedman
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Environmental Risk ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Transport Processes ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Environmental Risk Management ◽  
The Impact

Environmental risk assessment is becoming an increasingly important factor in the assessment process for new projects. The oil and gas industry is familiar with assessing and managing risks from a wide range of sources. In particular, risk assessment and management is fundamental to the evaluation and implementation of Safety cases. Risk assessment is essential in valuing exploration acreage. Various industry and government risk management standards and criteria have been developed for public and occupational health and safety.This paper examines the extension of these approaches to environmental risk management for the offshore oil and gas industry and proposes a conceptual management scheme.We regard risk as the probability of an event occurring and the consequences of that event. The risk is classified into four categories, namely:primary risk, which relates to the mechanical oilfield equipment;secondary risk, which relates to the natural transport processes. For example dispersion of oil in the water column and surrounding sea;the tertiary risk, which relates to the impact on some defined part of the physical, biological or social environment; andthe quaternary risk, which relates to the recovery of the environment from any impact.Generally the methods of quantitatively analysing primary and secondary risks are well known, while there remains considerable uncertainty surrounding the tertiary and quaternary risk and they are at best qualitative only. An example of the method is applied to coral reef and other sensitive areas which may be at risk from oil spills.This risk management scheme should assist both operators and regulators in considering complex environmental problems which have an inherent uncertainty. It also proves a systematic approach on which sound environmental decisions can be taken and further research and analysis based. Perceived risk is recognised, but the management of this particular issue is not dealt with.

scholarly journals Development of the Fatigue Risk Assessment and Management in High-Risk Environments (FRAME) Survey: A Participatory Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 522 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ashley Shortz ◽  
Ranjana Mehta ◽  
S. Peres ◽  
Mark Benden ◽  
Qi Zheng
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Participatory Approach ◽  
Assessment Tools ◽  
Delphi Consensus ◽  
Risk Environments ◽  
Stakeholder Input ◽  
Risk Assessment And Management ◽  
High Risk Environments

Existing risk assessment tools are not effective or sustainable in identifying Oil and Gas Extraction (OGE) workers at high risk of fatigue-related injuries or incidents. We developed a comprehensive Fatigue Risk Assessment and Management in high-risk Environments (FRAME) survey through an industry-academic participatory approach. The FRAME survey was developed through: (1) systematic gathering of existing fatigue scales; (2) refining the inventory using the Delphi Consensus technique; and (3) further refinement through employee/worker focus groups. The participatory approach resulted in a final FRAME survey across four fatigue dimensions—sleep, shiftwork, physical, and mental fatigue, and was composed of 26 items. The FRAME survey was founded on occupational fatigue science and refined and tailored to the OGE industry, through rigorous industry stakeholder input, for safer, effective, practical, and sustainable fatigue assessment and management efforts.

scholarly journals Stochastic Risk Assessment with a Lagrangian Solution for the Optimal Cost Allocation in High-Speed Rail Networks

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Jing Zuo ◽  
Jianwu Dang ◽  
Min Lyu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Speed ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Cost Allocation ◽  
Optimal Allocation ◽  
High Speed Rail ◽  
Maintenance Costs ◽  
Optimal Cost ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Stochastic Risk

In large-scale high-speed rail networks (HSRNs), the occurrence of occasional malfunctions or accidents is unavoidable. The key issue considered in this study is the optimal allocation of the maintenance costs, based on the stochastic risk assessment for HSRNs. Inspired by the theoretical risk evaluation methods in the complex network, three major factors, including the local effects, global effects, and component self-effects are considered in the process of assessing the impact on the network components (nodes or lines). By introducing the component failure occurrence probability, which is considered to be an exponential function changing with the component maintenance costs, a feasible stochastic risk assessment model of the HSRNs together with the component impact assessment is proposed that can better unify the impact assessment of both the high-speed rail stations and railways. An optimal allocation algorithm based on a Lagrangian relaxation approach is designed. Correspondingly, the optimal cost allocation scheme can be determined using the algorithm to eliminate the various HSRN risks under the given costs. Furthermore, a real-world case study of the HSRNs in eastern China is illustrated. Compared with the genetic algorithm, the simulation shows that the approach can solve the optimal cost allocation problem to more effectively reduce the risks of large-scale HSRNs in practice.

Prevalence of Risk Factors for VTE In Hospitalized Medical and Surgical Patients. Data From the Comparison of Methods for Thromboembolic Risk Assessment with Clinical Perceptions and AwareneSS In Real Life Surgical and Medical Patients (COMPASS) Study

Blood ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 116 (21) ◽  
pp. 3337-3337
Author(s):  
Grigoris T Gerotziafas ◽  
Miltos Chrysanthidis ◽  
Reda Isaad ◽  
Hela Baccouche ◽  
Chrysoula Papageorgiou ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Gastrointestinal Disease ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Bleeding Risk ◽  
Hospitalized Patients ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Surgical Patients ◽  
Medical Patients ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Abstract 3337 Introduction: Risk assessment models (RAM) are helpful tools for the screening VTE risk in hospitalized patients. Most of the available RAMs have been constructed on a disease-based or surgery-based approach and include some of the most relevant risk factors for VTE. There is limited information on the impact and importance of individual and comorbidity related risk factors for VTE present during hospitalization on the global VTE risk. Incorporation of the most frequent VTE risk and bleeding risk factors related to comorbidities might improve the ability of RAM to detect real-life patients at risk VTE and to evaluate drawbacks for the application of thromboprophylaxis. Aim of the study: The primary aim of the COMPASS programme was to evaluate the prevalence of the all known VTE and bleeding risk factors reported in the literature in real-life surgical and medical hospitalized patients. Methods: A prospective multicenter cross-sectional observational study was conducted in 6 hospitals in Greece and 1 in France. All inpatients aged >40 years hospitalised for medical diseases and inpatients aged >18 years admitted due to a surgical procedure and hospitalisation for a period exceeding three days were included. Patients and their treating physicians were interviewed with standardised questionnaire including all VTE and bleeding risk factors described in literature (130 items) on the third day of hospitalisation. Patients not giving informed consent, or receiving anticoagulant treatment for any reason or hospitalised in order to undergo diagnostic investigation without any further therapeutic intervention were excluded. Results: A total of 806 patients were enrolled in the study (414 medical and 392 surgical). Most frequent causes of hospitalisation in medical patients were infection (42%), ischemic stroke (14%), cancer (13%), gastrointestinal disease (9%), pulmonary disease (4%), renal disease (3%) and rheumatologic disease (1,4%). Surgical patients were hospitalised for vascular disease (22%) cancer (19,4%) gastrointestinal disease (12,5%), infection (8%), orthopaedic surgery and trauma (14%) or minor surgery (7%). Analysis of the frequency of risk factors for VTE showed that active cancer, recent hospitalisation, venous insufficiency and total bed rest without bathroom privileges were frequent in both groups. Medical patients had significantly more frequently than surgical patients several important predisposing risk factors for VTE. Moreover, medical patient had more frequently than surgical ones bleeding risk factors. The data for the most frequent risk factors are summarised in Table 1. Conclusion: COMPASS is the first registry that provides key data on the prevalence of all known VTE and bleeding risk factors in real life medical and surgical patients hospitalised in two countries of European Union. The analysis of the data shows that in addition to risk stemin from the disease or surgical act both medical and surgical patients share common VTE risk factors. The careful analysis of the most frequent and relevant VTE risk factors will allow the derivation of a practical VTE and bleeding risk assessment model taken into account these factors. Disclosures: Chrysanthidis: Sanofi-Aventis: Employment.

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