scholarly journals Frustration in Oil Market Price Effect on External Reserves in Nigeria 1970-2017

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Gerald Chimezie Nwadike ◽  
◽  
Bernard Onwe Chinedu Omogo ◽  
Chukwuma Samuel Alamba ◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Internal Control ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Market Price ◽  
International Market ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
The Impact

This study examines frustration in oil market price shock effect on external reserves Nigeria 1970-2019. Objectives are; to examine frustration in oil market price shock on the Nigerian external reserves 1970 to 2019 and to ascertain the impact of frustration in oil price on the Nigerian external reserves. The study employed the following advanced econometric techniques; Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) and Phillips-Perron (PP) tests, Structural VAR approach, Choleski decomposition and Imposing Short-run Restrictions test, statistical tests & Co-integration test. Based on the above econometric techniques conducted, it was observed that all the variables used became stationary after the first differences at degree of order one I (I). There is Co-integration (long run relations) among variables used in the study. Our results indicated that oil price does significantly influence shocks on external reserves in Nigeria the period of the study. Furthermore, frustration in oil price does insignificantly have impact on the external reserves in Nigeria from 1970 to 2019. The researcher recommends that; less emphasis of control should be placed on international market oil price since the oil price has 81% influences of international market externalities ‘shock on Nigeria external reserves. Rather, more emphasis should be place on other non-oil sector contributions to Nigeria external reserves since it may has virtually neutral or significant internal control that could lend to positive effect on external reserves in Nigeria. Direct manipulation of cured oil production and supply control policy should be Nigeria interest since Nigeria economy operates system of floating exchange rates

scholarly journals Oil price volatility and its impact on economic growth and food security in Bangladesh

2018 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 482-491
Author(s):  
Mousumi Saha ◽  
Seikh Mohammad Sayem ◽  
A. K. M. Abdullah Al-Amin ◽  
Shankar Majumder
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Exponential Model ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

This study empirically examines oil price volatility and the impact of oil price changes on the growth of the economy and food security in Bangladesh. The study uses yearly data of macroeconomic variables from 1991 to 2015 and global food security index (GFSI) for the period 2012 to 2015. Furthermore, data of GFSI for previous four years have been simulated using exponential model. The GARCH (2, 1) model with minimum AIC postulates that volatility was high in the previous period and it has been continued to be lower in the current period (i.e. 2015). The co-integration test and error correction model exhibit that both in short-run and long-run case the increasing oil price negatively affected the growth of the economy. The simultaneous equations regression model using three-stage least squares estimator discloses that an increase in oil price declines the economic growth and food security simultaneously and significantly. Moreover, this study suggests that oil price volatility is not a good sign for the economy of Bangladesh, since, the country is an importer of crude oil, government policy should be quick responsive in relation to international oil market to create consistent oil market and sustainable economic development in Bangladesh. J. Bangladesh Agril. Univ. 16(3): 482–491, December 2018

scholarly journals Crude oil price variability and its impact on ethanol prices

2011 ◽  
Vol 57 (No. 8) ◽  
pp. 394-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Pokrivčák ◽  
M. Rajčaniová
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Biofuel Production ◽  
Oil Price Shock ◽  
Price Shock ◽  
The Impact

The world annual biofuel production has exceeded 100 billion litres in 2009. The development of the biofuel production is partly influenced by the government support programs and partly by the development of oil prices. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the statistical relationship between ethanol, gasoline and crude oil prices. We aim to check the correlation among these variables and to analyze the strength and direction of a possible linear relationship among the variables. We are interested in analyzing how each variable is related to another, so we evaluate the inter-relationship among the variables in the Vector Autoregression (VAR) and the Impulse Response Function (IRF). In order to achieve our goal, we first collected weekly data for each variable from January, 2000 to October, 2009. The results provide evidence of the cointegration relationship between oil and gasoline prices, but no cointegration between ethanol, gasoline and ethanol, oil prices. As a result, we used a VAR model on first differences. After running the Impulse Response Function, we found out that the impact of the oil price shock on the other variables is considerable larger than vice versa. The largest impact of oil price shock was observed on the price of gasoline.  

scholarly journals Inflation Expectations and the Pass-Through of Oil Prices

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
Knut Are Aastveit ◽  
Hilde C. Bjørnland ◽  
Jamie L. Cross
Keyword(s):  
Oil Prices ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
The Great Recession ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Pass Through

Abstract Inflation expectations and the associated pass-through of oil price shocks depend on demand and supply conditions underlying the global oil market. We establish this result using a structural VAR model of the global oil market that jointly identifies transmissions of oil demand and supply shocks through real oil prices to both expected and actual inflation. We demonstrate that economic activity shocks have a significantly longer lasting effect on inflation expectations and actual inflation than other types of real oil price shocks, and resolve disagreements around the role of oil prices in explaining the missing deflation puzzle of the Great Recession.

scholarly journals Tail Dependence between Crude Oil Volatility Index and WTI Oil Price Movements during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (14) ◽  
pp. 4147
Author(s):  
Krzysztof Echaust ◽  
Małgorzata Just
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Value At Risk ◽  
Tail Dependence ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Oil Market ◽  
Volatility Index ◽  
Conditional Copula ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the dependence between extreme returns of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices and the Crude Oil Volatility Index (OVX) changes as well as the predictive power of OVX to generate accurate Value at Risk (VaR) forecasts for crude oil. We focus on the COVID-19 pandemic period as the most violate in the history of the oil market. The static and dynamic conditional copula methodology is used to measure the tail dependence coefficient (TDC) between the variables. We found a strong relationship in the tail dependence between negative returns on crude oil and OVX changes and the tail independence for positive returns. The time-varying copula discloses the strongest tail dependence of negative oil price shocks and the index changes during the COVID-19 health crisis. The findings indicate the ability of the OVX index to be a fear gauge with respect to the oil market. However, we cannot confirm the ability of OVX to improve one day-ahead forecasts of the Value at Risk. The impact of investors’ expectations embedded in OVX on VaR forecasts seems to be negligible.

Impact of Stock Market Volatility on Gold prices during the Covid-19 pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Garishma Gulyani ◽  
Priyanka Gupta ◽  
Ramanpreet Singh
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Unit Root Test ◽  
Selection Strategy ◽  
Stock Market Volatility ◽  
Stock Selection ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

The present research study examines the impact of Stock marketson Gold prices using daily data for pre and during COVID-19 period (January-October 2020). This study uses Unit root test, Granger causality test, GARCH method and Johansen’s co-integration test to evaluate difference in the Volatility as well as the relationship between them. The findings show that no causal relationship exists between Gold Prices and Stock market prices in the short run. The result of the Johansen Co-integration test for the long-run relationship between theGold price and Nifty Indices showno co-integration at all, but low co-integration inshort-run cannot be ruled out. With this study, an attempt has been made to reveal the relationship that exists between Gold and stock markets with empirical findings using the time series analysis which reveals the original side of work during the pandemic. The ARCH and GARCH coefficient explain significantly the persistence of information on stock return volatility. The present study recommends that the integration between Gold and Stock market price entails the need for investors globally to follow a portfolio stock selection strategy to add value from the investments in India.These findings have important implication for the investors seeking portfolio diversification.

scholarly journals Oil price volatility, macro-finance interactions and the role of monetary chocks

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 120
Author(s):  
Hammami Algia ◽  
Gmidéne Samia
Keyword(s):  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Structural Shocks ◽  
The Real ◽  
Oil Price Volatility ◽  
Macro Finance ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

<p>This paper deals the impact of major external (monetary, financial, Oil supply, aggregate demand) shocks on the real oil price. For this reason, we use the structural VAR methodology (SVAR) on the basis of which we define five structural shock estimate SVAR models to determine the relationship between these five shocks.</p><p>This paper presents the dynamic effects of these shocks on the real oil price and estimates the estimated contribution of these shocks to real oil price during the M11995– M2 2013 periods. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to identify the structural shocks underlying the real oil price.</p><p>The results show that financial and monetary chocks are two key determinants of oil prices. The results indicate that the period of financial stress has contributed to the downturn of the economy by boosting the cost of credit and making businesses, households, and financial institutions highly cautious, and consequently to rise of oil price.</p>

Study and Analysis of Dividend Policies, Practice and Its Application in Mumbai based Corporate Houses

GIS Business ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1-16
Author(s):  
Smita Jape
Keyword(s):  
Dividend Policy ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Dividend Policies ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Dividend Distribution ◽  
Financial Decision ◽  
The Impact

In the present paper an attempt has been made to study dividend policy of Mumbai based companies of India. The study tries to assess the level of perceived awareness about models and use of dividends policies, analyses the factors affecting dividend distribution decisions and evaluates the impact of the same on the financial decision-making of companies. In addition the paper tries to understand the correlation between size of companies and distribution of dividend policies. The results of the research paper show that a majority of the fifty respondent Companies follow a policy of consistent dividend rate which is influenced by profit after tax, and finally the legal requirements. It is further observed that generous dividend or erratic divided policies are not popular choice among fifty respondent companies. The use of traditional method of dividend policies which suggests that market price increases with declaration of dividend is strong and dominant. Followed by the Modiglani Miller Method which indicates that dividend distribution has no impact on valuation. On the contrary it is found that Investment decisions influence share valuation. This is further followed by Walter Model where impact of dividend on share price depends on the IRR visa-a-vis cost of capital) and Gordon Method in which dividend policy has an impact on share valuation. Statistical tests such as Friedmans ANOVA test, Kruskal-Wallis ANOVA, and, Karl Pearsons Coefficient of Correlation analysis are used for analysis and the validity of the collected data is checked by using Cronbachs alpha.

The impact of oil price shocks on Turkish sovereign yield curve

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Oğuzhan Çepni ◽  
Selçuk Gül ◽  
Muhammed Hasan Yılmaz ◽  
Brian Lucey
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
Structural Var ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Demand Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Identification Scheme ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThis paper aims to investigate the impact of oil price shocks on the Turkish sovereign yield curve factors.Design/methodology/approachTo extract the latent factors (level, slope and curvature) of the Turkish sovereign yield curve, we estimate conventional Nelson and Siegel (1987) model with nonlinear least squares. Then, we decompose oil price shocks into supply, demand and risk shocks using structural VAR (structural VAR) models. After this separation, we apply Engle (2002) dynamic conditional correlation GARCH (DCC-GARCH (1,1)) method to investigate time-varying co-movements between yield curve factors and oil price shocks. Finally, using the LP (local projections) proposed by Jorda (2005), we estimate the impulse-response functions to examine the impact of different oil price shocks on yield curve factors.FindingsOur results demonstrate that the various oil price shocks influence the yield curve factors quite differently. A supply shock leads to a statistically significant increase in the level factor. This result shows that elevated oil prices due to supply disruptions are interpreted as a signal of a surge in inflation expectations since the cost channel prevails. Besides, unanticipated demand shocks have a positive impact on the slope factor as a result of the central bank policy response for offsetting the elevated inflation expectations. Finally, a risk shock is associated with a decrease in the curvature factor indicating that risk shocks influence the medium-term bonds due to the deflationary pressure resulting from depressed economic conditions.Practical implicationsOur results provide new insights to understand the driving forces of yield curve movements induced by various oil shocks to formulate appropriate policy responses.Originality/valueThe study contributes to the literature by two main dimensions. First, the recent oil shock identification scheme of Ready (2018) is modified using the “geopolitical oil price risk index” to capture the changes in the risk perceptions of oil markets driven by geopolitical tensions such as terrorism and conflicts and sanctions. The modified identification scheme attributes more power to demand shocks in explaining the variation of the oil price compared to that of the baseline scheme. Second, it provides recent evidence that distinguishes the impact of oil demand and supply shocks on Turkey's yield curve.

scholarly journals Oil Price Shocks, Agriculture and Household Welfare in Nigeria: Results From an Economy-Wide Model

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (31) ◽  
pp. 158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nkang M. Nkang
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
International Market ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Household Welfare ◽  
Social Accounting Matrix ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Targeted Interventions ◽  
Output Losses ◽  
The Impact

Following the recent plunge in the price of crude oil in the international market and its attendant implications on oil-exporting countries, this paper simulated the impact of a fifty per cent decline in world oil price on agriculture and household welfare using a general equilibrium model, and data from a social accounting matrix (SAM) for Nigeria. Results show that gross domestic output and supply of composites in the agriculture sectors increased substantially, causing agriculture prices to decline. Furthermore, the shock reduced incomes/expenditure in all household groups except urban-north households that recorded an increase. We therefore conclude that lower oil prices may not necessarily lead to output losses, but could boost output in other sectors, engendering diversification of the export base. Also, targeted interventions would prove more effective in mitigating the negative impact of oil price shocks on households than general palliative measures based on the results of the study.

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