scholarly journals Predicting Drought and Subsidence Risks in France

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arthur Charpentier ◽  
Molly Rose James ◽  
Hani Ali
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
Economic Cost ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
The Past ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Climatic Information

Abstract. The economic consequences of drought episodes are increasingly important, although they are often difficult to apprehend in part because of the complexity of the underlying mechanisms. In this article, we will study one of the consequences of drought, namely the risk of subsidence (or more specifically clay shrinkage induced subsidence), for which insurance has been mandatory in France for several decades. Using data obtained from several insurers, representing about a quarter of the household insurance market, over the past twenty years, we propose some statistical models to predict the frequency but also the intensity of these droughts, for insurers, showing that climate change will have probably major economic consequences on this risk. But even if we use more advanced models than standard regression-type models (here random forests to capture non linearity and cross effects), it is still difficult to predict the economic cost of subsidence claims, even if all geophysical and climatic information is available.

scholarly journals On age difference in joint lifetime modelling with life insurance annuity applications

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 350-371 ◽  
Author(s):  
François Dufresne ◽  
Enkelejd Hashorva ◽  
Gildas Ratovomirija ◽  
Youssouf Toukourou
Keyword(s):  
Life Insurance ◽  
Joint Distribution ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Married Couple ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Age Difference ◽  
Insurance Company ◽  
The Past ◽  
Copula Approach ◽  
Using Data

AbstractInsurance and annuity products covering several lives require the modelling of the joint distribution of future lifetimes. In the interest of simplifying calculations, it is common in practice to assume that the future lifetimes among a group of people are independent. However, extensive research over the past decades suggests otherwise. In this paper, a copula approach is used to model the dependence between lifetimes within a married couple using data from a large Canadian insurance company. As a novelty, the age difference and the gender of the elder partner are introduced as an argument of the dependence parameter. Maximum likelihood techniques are thus implemented for the parameter estimation. Not only do the results make clear that the correlation decreases with age difference, but also the dependence between the lifetimes is higher when husband is older than wife. A goodness-of-fit procedure is applied in order to assess the validity of the model. Finally, considering several annuity products available on the life insurance market, the paper concludes with practical illustrations.

Selecting climate projections for services: the DRIAS-2020 dataset

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lola Corre ◽  
Samuel Somot ◽  
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux ◽  
Sébastien Bernus ◽  
Agathe Drouin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Easy Access ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Climate Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Quantile Mapping ◽  
The Past ◽  
Climate Service ◽  
Climatic Information

<p>The French National Climate Service “Drias, futures of climate” was launched in 2012, as a response of the French scientific community to society’s need for climatic information. It is mainly composed of a website that provides easy access to the best available climate data to characterize climate change over France. Latest advances developed in 2020 include the availability of a new set of regional climate scenarios corrected by a quantile-mapping based method with correction depending on the weather regime. As for the previous set, the climate projections are based on the EURO-CORDEX ensemble, whose contents have been greatly enriched over the past years. Singular effort was done to build a robust and synthetic set that well represents the uncertainties of climate change over France. The different criteria defined to select the simulations will be presented, and the range of the projected climate change will be examined, with respect to larger ensembles.</p><p> </p>

scholarly journals Broadcast Meteorologists’ Views on Climate Change: A State-of-the-Community Review

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 249-262 ◽  
Author(s):  
David R. Perkins ◽  
Kristin Timm ◽  
Teresa Myers ◽  
Edward Maibach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Comprehensive Analysis ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Past ◽  
Local Impacts ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractBroadcast meteorologists—highly skilled professionals who work at the intersection between climate scientists and the public—have considerable opportunity to educate their viewers about the local impacts of global climate change. Prior research has shown that, within the broadcast meteorology community, views of climate change have evolved rapidly over the past decade. Here, using data from three census surveys of U.S. broadcast meteorologists conducted annually between 2015 and 2017, is a comprehensive analysis of broadcast meteorologists’ views about climate change. Specifically, this research describes weathercasters’ beliefs about climate change and certainty in those beliefs, perceived causes of climate change, perceived scientific consensus and interest in learning more about climate change, belief that climate change is occurring (and the certainty of that belief), belief that climate change is human caused, perceptions of any local impacts of climate change, and perceptions of the solvability of climate change. Today’s weathercaster community appears to be sharing the same viewpoints and outlooks as most climate scientists—in particular, that climate change is already affecting the United States and that present-day trends are largely a result of human activity.

Prediction of Technical Reserves Based on Grey Model — GM(1,1): Evidence from Non-life Egyptian Insurance Market

2019 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 852-860
Author(s):  
Mahmoud Elsayed ◽  
◽  
Amr Soliman ◽  
Keyword(s):  
System Theory ◽  
Grey System Theory ◽  
Insurance Market ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Loss Ratio ◽  
Grey System ◽  
Mathematical Technique ◽  
Supervisory Authority ◽  
Error Ratio ◽  
Using Data

Grey system theory is a mathematical technique used to predict data with known and unknown characteristics. The aim of our research is to forecast the future amount of technical reserves (outstanding claims reserve, loss ratio fluctuations reserve and unearned premiums reserve) up to 2029/2030. This study applies the Grey Model GM(1,1) using data obtained from the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) over the period from 2005/2006 to 2015/2016 for non-life Egyptian insurance market. We found that the predicted amounts of outstanding claims reserve and loss ratio fluctuations reserve are highly significant than the unearned premiums reserve according to the value of Posterior Error Ratio (PER).

Novel Findings of Anti-cancer Property of Propofol

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaqiang Wang ◽  
Chien-shan Cheng ◽  
Yan Lu ◽  
Xiaowei Ding ◽  
Minmin Zhu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Anesthesia ◽  
Cancer Progression ◽  
Molecular Mechanisms ◽  
Intravenous Anesthetic ◽  
The Past ◽  
Anti Cancer ◽  
Underlying Mechanisms ◽  
Recent Attention

Background: Propofol, a widely used intravenous anesthetic agent, is traditionally applied for sedation and general anesthesia. Explanation: Recent attention has been drawn to explore the effect and mechanisms of propofol against cancer progression in vitro and in vivo. Specifically, the proliferation-inhibiting and apoptosis-inducing properties of propofol in cancer have been studied. However, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Conclusion: This review focused on the findings within the past ten years and aimed to provide a general overview of propofol's malignance-modulating properties and the potential molecular mechanisms.

Denouement: World Politics, Systemic Leadership, and Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Thompson ◽  
Leila Zakhirova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
World Politics ◽  
First Century ◽  
Modern World ◽  
Climate Fluctuations ◽  
The Past ◽  
Agrarian Economy ◽  
Historical Processes

In this final chapter, we conclude by recapitulating our argument and evidence. One goal of this work has been to improve our understanding of the patterns underlying the evolution of world politics over the past one thousand years. How did we get to where we are now? Where and when did the “modern” world begin? How did we shift from a primarily agrarian economy to a primarily industrial one? How did these changes shape world politics? A related goal was to examine more closely the factors that led to the most serious attempts by states to break free of agrarian constraints. We developed an interactive model of the factors that we thought were most likely to be significant. Finally, a third goal was to examine the linkages between the systemic leadership that emerged from these historical processes and the global warming crisis of the twenty-first century. Climate change means that the traditional energy platforms for system leadership—coal, petroleum, and natural gas—have become counterproductive. The ultimate irony is that we thought that the harnessing of carbon fuels made us invulnerable to climate fluctuations, while the exact opposite turns out to be true. The more carbon fuels are consumed, the greater the damage done to the atmosphere. In many respects, the competition for systemic leadership generated this problem. Yet it is unclear whether systemic leadership will be up to the task of resolving it.

Economic Consequences of War

1943 ◽  
Vol 3 (S1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Curtis P. Nettels
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Economic Consequences ◽  
Competitive Advantages ◽  
Competitive Position ◽  
The Past ◽  
History Of ◽  
Costs Of Production ◽  
Foreign Competitors

One influence of war has repeatedly asserted itself in the past—an effect on the costs of production and on the competitive position of the industries and firms of victorious or neutral nations. This subject needs more study, but certain facts suggest a hypothesis, of three parts. First: war expands some industries or concerns, increases their efficiency, enables them to operate, at the end of the struggle, on a comparatively low-cost basis, intensifies their competitive advantages, and improves their position in relation to foreign competitors. Second: war—for the duration—bolsters up some high-cost units by enabling them to sell at a profit all they can produce. The end of the war places such high-cost units at a disadvantage in the process of absorbing the shocks of the transition to a peacetime economy. Third: the history of postwar periods usually exhibits a sharp contest between such low-cost and high-cost enterprises. While “low cost” and “high cost” may refer to the relative positions of units within the same country, in most of this discussion, the terms will be applied to the producers of one country (either victor or neutral) to mean that their costs are low or high in comparison with those of their foreign competitors.

Increase associated risk of gynaecological cancer due to long-term exposure to high concentration of atmospheric SO2 industrial pollutant

2021 ◽  
pp. 1420326X2110036
Author(s):  
Qian Xu ◽  
Chan Lu ◽  
Rachael Gakii Murithi ◽  
Lanqin Cao
Keyword(s):  
Time Windows ◽  
Air Pollutant ◽  
Gynaecological Cancer ◽  
High Concentration ◽  
The Past ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Using Data ◽  
Air Quality Monitoring Stations ◽  
Control Study

A cohort case–control study was conducted in XiangYa Hospital, Changsha, China, which involved 305 patients and 399 healthy women, from June 2010 to December 2018, to evaluate the association between Chinese women’s short- and long-term exposure to industrial air pollutant, SO2 and gynaecological cancer (GC). We obtained personal and family information from the XiangYa Hospital electronic computer medical records. Using data obtained from the air quality monitoring stations in Changsha, we estimated each woman’s exposure to the industrial air pollutant, sulphur dioxide (SO2), for different time windows, including the past 1, 5, 10 and 15 years before diagnosis of the disease. A multiple logistic regression model was used to assess the association between GC and SO2 exposure. GC was significantly associated with long-term SO2 exposure, with adjusted odds ratio (95% confidence interval) = 1.56 (1.10–2.21) and 1.81 (1.07–3.06) for a per interquartile range increase in the past 10 and 15 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis showed that different groups reacted in different ways to long-term SO2 exposure. We concluded that long-term exposure to high concentration of industrial pollutant, SO2 is associated with the development of GC. This finding has implications for the prevention and reduction of GC.

Sexual harassment and psychological complaints: student- and class-level associations

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Brolin Låftman ◽  
Y Bjereld ◽  
B Modin ◽  
P Löfstedt
Keyword(s):  
School Climate ◽  
Sexual Harassment ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
School Class ◽  
School Aged Children ◽  
The Past ◽  
Class Level ◽  
Using Data

Abstract Background Students who are subjected to sexual harassment at school report lower psychological well-being than those who are not exposed. Yet, it is possible that the occurrence of sexual harassment in the school class is stressful also for those who are not directly targeted, with potential negative effects on well-being for all students. The aim was to examine whether sexual harassment at the student- and at the class-level was associated with students' psychological complaints. Methods Data from the Swedish Health Behaviour in School-aged Children (HBSC) of 2017/18 was used, with information from students aged 11, 13 and 15 years (n = 3,720 distributed across 209 classes). Psychological complaints were constructed as a summative index of four items capturing how often the student had felt low, felt irritable or bad tempered, felt nervous, or had difficulties to fall asleep, during the past six months (Cronbach's alpha=0.78). Sexual harassment at the student-level was measured by one item concerning bullying at school: “Other students have exposed me to sexual jokes”. Students who reported that this had happened at least “2 or 3 times a month” were classified as exposed to sexual harassment at school. Sexual harassment at the class-level was defined as the school class proportion of students exposed to sexual harassment, reported in per cent. Two-level linear regression analysis was applied. Results Students who had been exposed to sexual harassment had higher levels of psychological complaints (b = 2.74, p < 0.001). The proportion of students in the school class who had been exposed to sexual harassment was also associated with higher levels of psychological complaints, even when adjusting for sexual harassment at the student-level, gender and grade (b = 0.03, p = 0.015). Conclusions Sexual harassment is harmful for those who are exposed, but may also affect other students negatively. Thus, a school climate free from sexual harassment will profit all students. Key messages Using data collected among students aged 11, 13 and 15 years, this study showed that sexual harassment at the student- and class-level was associated with higher levels of psychological complaints. Sexual harassment is harmful for those who are exposed, but may also affect other students negatively. Thus, a school climate free from sexual harassment will profit all students.

Comparing respondents who passed versus failed an Instructional Manipulation Check: A case study about support for climate change policies

2021 ◽  
Vol 63 (4) ◽  
pp. 408-415
Author(s):  
Maria Rubio Juan ◽  
Melanie Revilla
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
External Validity ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Manipulation Check ◽  
Climate Change Policies ◽  
Instructional Manipulation ◽  
Using Data

The presence of satisficers among survey respondents threatens survey data quality. To identify such respondents, Oppenheimer et al. developed the Instructional Manipulation Check (IMC), which has been used as a tool to exclude observations from the analyses. However, this practice has raised concerns regarding its effects on the external validity and the substantive conclusions of studies excluding respondents who fail an IMC. Thus, more research on the differences between respondents who pass versus fail an IMC regarding sociodemographic and attitudinal variables is needed. This study compares respondents who passed versus failed an IMC both for descriptive and causal analyses based on structural equation modeling (SEM) using data from an online survey implemented in Spain in 2019. These data were analyzed by Rubio Juan and Revilla without taking into account the results of the IMC. We find that those who passed the IMC do differ significantly from those who failed for two sociodemographic and five attitudinal variables, out of 18 variables compared. Moreover, in terms of substantive conclusions, differences between those who passed and failed the IMC vary depending on the specific variables under study.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document