scholarly journals Has the Yield Curve Accurately Predicted the Malaysian Economy in the Previous Two Decades?

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maya Puspa Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Yield Curve ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Growth And Yield ◽  
Yield Spread ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Three Samples ◽  
Short Run ◽  
New Evidence

Previous researchers have argued that yield curve contains information for future growth, and to a certain extent, was accurate in predicting recessions through the signal of yield curve inversion. This paper provides new evidence on the long- and short-run relationship between economic growth and yield spread in Malaysia, based on a 20-year span of data ranging from January 1996 to December 2016. By using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) framework, the sample data are divided into three samples after taking into consideration the two major crises occurred in Malaysia over the last two decades. We find strong evidence of cointegration between the yield spread and growth, concurring on the long-run and short-run dynamics between them. Though significant, the instability of the yield spread to affect the movement of growth does not support the priori expectation on the predictive ability of the yield curve in Malaysia.

Impact of Environmental Tax on Comparative Advantage of Food and Food Products: A Study of G20 Countries in Light of Environmentally Sensitive Goods

2021 ◽  
pp. 001946622110352
Author(s):  
Alisha Mahajan ◽  
Kakali Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Advantage ◽  
Food Products ◽  
Environmental Taxes ◽  
Environmental Tax ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Environmentally Sensitive ◽  
The Relationship

Many countries are under constant fear that environmental policies might negatively influence the international competitiveness of polluting industries. In this study, we aim to evaluate the relationship and impact of the environmental tax on comparative advantage of trade in food and food products industry, considered to be one of the highly environmentally sensitive industries. This study also investigates, whether this relationship differs among countries covered in G20, with the help of correlation analysis. We select panel autoregressive distributed lag approach for this study as it can analyse long-run as well as short-run association even when the variables are stationary at different orders of integration. Using panel data from G20 countries over the period of 21 years that is from 1994 to 2015, it is concluded that when we allow environmental taxes to interact with the revealed comparative advantage (RCA) of G20 nations, the overall impact of the environmental tax on the RCA is negative in the long period. It is therefore suggested that countries should follow Porter hypothesis to stimulate innovations resulting from strict environmental regulations that affect the environment in least possible manner. JEL Codes: C01, C23, C33, F18, O57, Q5

scholarly journals The Determinants of Food Prices in Pakistan

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henna Ahsan ◽  
Zainab Iftikhar ◽  
M. Ali Kemal
Keyword(s):  
Active Role ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Significant Variable ◽  
Demand And Supply ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

Controlling prices is one of the biggest tasks that macroeconomic policymakers face. The objective of this study is to analyze the demand- and supply-side factors that affect food prices in Pakistan. We analyze their long-run relationship using an autoregressive distributed lag model for the period 1970–2010. Our results indicate that that the most significant variable affecting food prices in both the long and short run is money supply. We also find that subsidies can help reduce food prices in the long run but that their impact is very small. Increases in world food prices pressurize the domestic market in the absence of imports, which cause domestic food prices to rise. If, however, we import food crops at higher international prices, this can generate imported inflation. The error correction is statistically significant and shows that market forces play an active role in restoring the long-run equilibrium.

scholarly journals Does the Export-Led Growth Hypothesis Hold for Services Exports in Emerging Economies?

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (27) ◽  
pp. 63-75
Author(s):  
Okpeku Lilian ONOSE ◽  
◽  
Osman Nuri ARAS ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Emerging Countries ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Growth Hypothesis

The export-led growth hypothesis states a positive relationship between the growth of exports and long-run economic growth. This study examines the validity of the export-led growth hypothesis of services exports in 5 emerging economies, including Brazil, India, Nigeria, China, and South Africa (BINCS), for the period of 1980-2019. The study employs the panel mean group autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) procedure to identify a causal relationship between services exports and gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. The findings show that the export-led growth hypothesis in services only has a positive effect on economic growth in the short run while other variables, including foreign direct investment (FDI), gross capital formation, and labour, increase economic growth in the long run. Hence, the emerging countries should focus more on internal investment to boost growth in the long and short run.

scholarly journals FDI location and exchange rates. is there really a relationship between the two?

2015 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 642-651
Author(s):  
Kunofiwa Tsaurai
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Coming Out ◽  
Causal Relation ◽  
Exact Nature ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The exchange rate led foreign direct investment (FDI), FDI led exchange rates and feedback effect hypotheses summarise the literature around the nature of the relationship between FDI and exchange rates. So many authors on this subject over a long period have been found to generally side with of the above-mentioned hypothesis or another without a consensus. Despite this lack of consensus with regard to the exact nature of the causal relation between these two variables, what is coming out clearly from the literature is that there indeed exist a relationship between FDI and exchange rates. The lack of consensus has prompted this current study that used the ARDL (Autoregressive distributed lag)-bounds testing approach. The study revealed the existence of causality from (1) the rand value to FDI in the long run and (2) FDI to the rand value only in the short run in South Africa. The author recommends that policies which strengthen the value of the rand should be put in place in order to attract FDI in the long run. The flow of FDI into South Africa will in turn not only stabilises the value of the rand.

scholarly journals The Causal Connection between CO2 Emissions and Agricultural Productivity in Pakistan: Empirical Evidence from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Bounds Testing Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (8) ◽  
pp. 1692 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdul Rehman ◽  
Ilhan Ozturk ◽  
Deyuan Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Emissions ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Food Grains ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Total Food ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Seed Distribution

The rapid agricultural development and mechanization of agronomic diligence has led to a significant growth in energy consumption and CO2 emission. Agriculture has a dominant contribution to boosting the economy of any country. In this paper, we demonstrate carbon dioxide emissions’ association with cropped area, energy use, fertilizer offtake, gross domestic product per capita, improved seed distribution, total food grains and water availability in Pakistan for the period of 1987-2017. We employed Augmented Dickey-Fuller and Phillips-Perron unit root tests to examine the variables’ stationarity. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing technique to cointegration was applied to demonstrate the causality linkage among study variables from the evidence of long-run and short-run analyses. The long-run evidence reveals that cropped area, energy usage, fertilizer offtake, gross domestic product per capita and water availability have a positive and significant association with carbon dioxide emissions, while the analysis results of improved seed distribution and total food grains have a negative association with carbon dioxide emissions in Pakistan. Overall, the long-run effects are stronger than the short-run dynamics, in terms of the impact of explanatory variables on carbon dioxide emission, thus making the findings heterogeneous. Possible initiatives should be taken by the government of Pakistan to improve the agriculture sector and also introduce new policies to reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide.

SHORT-RUN AND LONG-RUN IMPACT OF INFLATION, UNEMPLOYMENT, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH TOWARDS POVERTY IN INDONESIA: ARDL APPROACH

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 15
Author(s):  
Ahmadi Murjani
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Poverty Alleviation ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Ardl Approach ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

 Poverty alleviation has become a vigorous program in the world in recent decades. In line with the efforts applied by the government in various countries to reduce poverty, some evaluations have been practised. The impacts of macroeconomic variables such as inflation, unemployment, and economic growth have been commonly employed to be assessed for their impact on the poverty. Previous studies in Indonesia yielded mix results regarding the impact of such macroeconomic variables on the poverty. Different methods and time reference issue were the suspected causes. This paper aims to overcome such problem by utilising the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) equipped with the latest time of observations. This paper finds in the long-run, inflation, unemployment, and economic growth significantly influence the poverty. In the short-run, only inflation and economic growth are noted affecting poverty significantly. 

scholarly journals DO INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGIES FOSTER ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA?

2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 103-122
Author(s):  
Badri Narayan Rath ◽  
Danny Hermawan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Information And Communication Technologies ◽  
Communication Technologies ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Ict Development

This paper investigates, using annual data from 1980 to 2014, whether adoption of information and communication technologies (ICT) fosters economic growth in Indonesia. We employ an Autoregressive Distributed Lag cointegration technique on an augmented neoclassical growth model. The empirical results indicate a positive effect of ICT development on economic growth in both the long-run and short-run. The other regressors, such as total factor productivity, human capital, and capital per worker, also positively affect economic growth. From a policy perspective, the Indonesian government should promote ICT development through greater investment.

scholarly journals The Effect of Higher Education on Growth: A Cointegration Analysis

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Murat Mustafa Kutlutürk ◽  
Hakan Kasım Akmaz ◽  
Ahmet Çetin
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

In this study the relationship between higher education and economic growth was investigated using annual data between 1988 and 2012 for Turkey. To see short and long run effects of higher education on growth the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) testing approach was used. In this investigation ratio of higher education graduates in employment was used as an explanatory variable. Zivot and Andrews test was implemented for the variables. The long and short run effects of higher education on growth was found significant. Granger causality test was implemented and one way Granger causality from higher education to growth was determined.

scholarly journals A Test of the validity of Crowding-out (or- in) hypothesis: A new examination of link between public borrowing and private investment in Emerging Europe

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 91-103
Author(s):  
Mehmed Ganic ◽  
Lejla Hodzic ◽  
Ognjen Ridic
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Transition Countries ◽  
Crowding Out ◽  
Debt Burden ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Pooled Mean Group ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study seeks to test the existence of the crowding-out (or- in) hypothesis in a sample of 17 Emerging Europe countries divided in two panels. The study employs a panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model based on three estimators, Mean Group Estimator (MG), Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE), in order to evaluate the of stability of short run and long run coefficients using consistently compiled public borrowing and private investment data between 2000 and 2019. The empirical findings of the paper generally confirm the existence of a crowding out effect in both long run and short run in European post-transition countries, and in the long run for European transition countries. More specifically, elasticity of private investment with respect to public debt is greater in the European transition countries than in the European post-transition countries. However, the findings on the crowding out (in) effect of government spending and economic growth on private investment are mixed and conflicting in both the long run and the short run. Accordingly, the study recommends that selected countries should reassess their austerity agendas employed for lowering debt levels, and follow new strategies for managing public debt burden.

scholarly journals The Relationship between Economic Development and Fatal Occupational Accidents: Evidence from Turkey

2017 ◽  
Vol 64 (1) ◽  
pp. 19-31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olcay Çolak ◽  
Serap Palaz
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Occupational Accidents ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Occupational accidents are among the most important issues of the agenda of working life in Turkey recently. Recently the causes and consequences of occupational accidents which are related to human, occupational and environmental factors have received great attention from the researchers but it has been paid little attention to focused on economic factors. The purpose of this paper is to make a contribution to redressing this gap by examining the relationship between fatal occupational accidents and economic development over the period of 1980 to 2012 for Turkey. In this context, bounds testing approach which is also known as autoregressive distributed lag model is performed. The results indicate the existence of positive relationship between gross domestic product per capita and fatal occupational accidents in the short-run while in the long run this turns out to be in a negative way via economic growth and changes in structure of the economy.

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