DAMPAK PENERAPAN INDONESIA - JAPAN ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT (IJEPA) TERHADAP NILAI EKSPOR IMPOR INDONESIA

This study aims to analyze the impact of the IJEPA agreement on bilateral trade (export - import) of Indonesia with Japan using 20 main commodities of trade according to the 2 digit HS code in the period 2001-2018 with the Random Effect Model (REM) estimation model. This study also analyzes whether GDP, population, and the real exchange rate of Indonesia - Japan has an influence on the development of Indonesia's export and import values. The analysis showed that both before and after the enactment of IJEPA cooperation did not have a significant effect on the value of exports from Indonesia - Japan. The variable GDP, population, and the real exchange rate have a significant effect on exports and imports. Therefore, the government of Indonesia and Japan can review the IJEPA agreement in order to increase the benefits of IJEPA.

ANALISIS DAMPAK BAURAN KEBIJAKAN MONETER DAN MAKROPRUDENSIAL TERHADAP STABILITAS HARGA DAN STABILITAS SISTEM KEUANGAN DI INDONESIA

The financial crisis that has happened has changed the perspective of the central banks in the world, including Indonesia in viewing that financial system stability is also important in addition to price stability. In achieving this goal, Bank Indonesia formulated a policy namely the Bank Indonesia Policy Mix which is the integration of monetary and macroprudential policies.This research aims to analyze the impact of the monetary and macroprudential policy mix on price stability and financial system stability in Indonesia. The analysis method applied in this study is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and Granger Causality. The results of the study show that both monetary and macroprudential policies can achieve price stability. In achieving financial system stability, monetary policy instruments take longer than macroprudential policies. The monetary and macroprudential policy mix instruments can reduce inflation volatility and exchange rate volatility so as to encourage price stability and financial system stability.

Analisis pengaruh growth terhadap profit pada perusahaan manufaktur terbuka di Indonesia: Analisis model panel data dinamis

Growth will affect profitability of a firm. There is ongoing debate about how growth will affect profit both theoritically and empirical results. Classical hypothesis predict growth will affect profit positively. Growth can improve firm profitability because the effect from economies of scale and the learning curve effect that makes the production process and the cost of production become more efficient. Behavioral hypothesis predict growth will affect profit negatively because of principal agent problem, managerial constraints, penrose effect or diseconomies of scale. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of growth to profit based on the argument between Classical hypothesis and behavioral hypothesis. This study used dynamics panel data with generalized method of moments (GMM) as estimator. This study observed 82 publicly listed manufacturing firm in Indonesia consist of nine periods from 2009 to 2018 resulting in 656 observations. Empirical result shows that growth will affect profit negatively. Thus, prove the behavioral hypothesis that predict negative influence of growth to profit.

DETERMINANTS OF DISTRICTS/CITIES EDUCATION ATTAINMENT INEQUALITY IN EAST JAVA PROVINCE DURING 2014-2016

High school enrollment rate can reduce educational inequality. However, East Java Province which has a high school enrollment rate, education inequality is also high. Using data from the National Socioeconomic Survey (Susenas) from 2014 to 2016 and publications from several institutes, this research aims to find out the determinants of districts/cities education inequality in East Java in 2014-2016. The inferential analysis uses panel data regression with the random effect model (REM). The results show that the significant variables increasing the education inequality are the percentage of poor population and percentage of married young women, while the significant variables decreasing the education inequality are Gross Domestic Regional Product (GDRP) growth, the percentage of household head educated minimum secondary level, and teacher-school ratio on the secondary level. There are no significant effects of government spending on education inequality.

PENDAKIAN DI JAWA TENGAH : MOTIVASI EKOWISATA DAN PERILAKU WISATAWAN

High interest in hiking is influenced by tourist behavior, so that it will potentially increase negative impact due to tourist activities in vulnerable areas. Tourist behavior in decision making can be estimated through the demand side of hiking. This research aims to analyze the factors that influence number of individual visits to the hiking sites in Central Java. The result showed seven variables influence the number of individual visits to hiking sites, those are physical motivation, landscape value, natural value, tourist facilities, accessibility, travel cost, and other tourism site. In the development of mountain-based tourism should pay attention to the alignment of tourism aspects and ecotourism principles.

DETERMINANTS OF THE DOWRY: FINDING FROM IFLS EAST

This study aims to analyze the factors that influence the amount dowry/wedding gift in marriage. The study used female individuals (n=1,532) from The Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS) East data who lived in 7 provinces in eastern Indonesia. Using multivariate regression, the results of this study found that the economic status and the level of education of female before marriage have positive effect on the amount of dowry. Geographical, ethnic, and religious factors can also explain the variation of dowry. Married female in East Nusa Tenggara province, Muslim’s female, and Bugis-Makassar-Toraja’s female receive higher dowry than other counterparts. The results of this study provide evidence regarding the reasons for the high dowry in several communities in eastern part of Indonesia.

ANALISIS PENGARUH KETERBUKAAN EKONOMI TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI (STUDI KASUS: ASEAN TAHUN 2007 – 2017)

The era of globalization demands an increasingly broad economic openness from every country in the world, both openness in foreign trade (trade openness) and openness to the financial sector. In theory, economic openness benefits all countries involved. The advantages of trade openness include opening up wider market access to achieving higher levels of efficiency and economic competitiveness, as well as opportunities for greater employment. Openness in the financial sector can encourage the entry of foreign capital (capital inflow), and accelerate the occurrence of capital accumulation and technology transfer. This study aims to analyze the effect of economic openness on economic growth in ASEAN (Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia) for the period 2000 - 2017. This study uses panel data regression analysis with a fixed effect approach. The method in this study uses quantitative research by conducting hypothesis testing. The data used are secondary data from ASEAN countries in 2007-2017 by looking at publications at the World Bank. This study uses panel data, where the panel data is a combination of cross section and time series data. The analytical tool used is panel data regression analysis using the Eviews9 program. Then the best panel data regression model is estimated. From the stages of analysis carried out, the results of data analysis showed that the results of the panel data estimation selected the best model were Fixed Effext Model (FEM). Hypothesis testing of the results of the Trade Openness (TO) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) model have a positive and significant effect on ASEAN Economic Growth (G), while the government expenditure variable (GOV) has no significant positive effect. The inflation variable (INF) has no effect on economic growth.

HUBUNGAN PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI TERHADAP KUALITAS LINGKUNGAN HIDUP DI PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui seberapa besar hubungan pembangunan ekonomi yang difokuskan pada sisi laju pertumbuhan Sektor Pertanian, Industri, dan Transportasi terhadap Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup di Provinsi Jawa Timur. Metode analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah analisis data panel dengan menggabungkan data cross section dan time series. Model yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah Vector Error Correction Models (VECM) dan metode yang dipilih dalam penelitian ini adalah Granger Causality. Hasil penelitian dari metode analisis Granger Causality menunjukkan bahwa hubungan kausal antara laju pertumbuhan sektor Industri terhadap Indeks Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup sebesar 0.0470 signifikan dalam taraf 5%. Sektor Transportasi memiliki hubungan kausal sebesar 0.0000 terhadap Indeks Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup signifikan dalam taraf 5%. Sektor Pertanian memiliki hubungan kausal terhadap Indeks Kualitas Lingkungan Hidup signifikan dalam taraf 5%. Hipotesis Environmental Kuznet Curve terbukti di Jawa Timur berbentuk U-terbalik yang melandai.

PENGARUH INKLUSI KEUANGAN TERHADAP STABILITAS SISTEM KEUANGAN (STUDI KASUS : SELECTED ASIA DEVELOPING COUNTRIES TAHUN 2011-2016)

This research aims to analyse the financial inclusion relationship to financial system stability in developing countries in Asia. The data used in this study are panel data, a combination of time series data from 2011-2016 and cross section of seven developing countries in Asia, namely Bangladesh, Indonesia, India, Malaysia, Pakistan, Thailand and Turkey. This research was conducted with quantitative methods. Quantitative method is done by tobit regression estimation technique The use of tobit regeresi estimation technique is used because the dependent variable is AFSI in a certain range or censored.The result of this study indicate that financial inclussion has a negative and insgignificant influence on financial system stability in selected Asia developing countries. In addition, other variables that a significant effect on financial system stability are the ratio of current assets to deposits and short-term funding, non foreign direct invesment and private credit ratio, significant influence on teh stability of the country’s financial system.

ANALISIS KETERKAITAN INSTRUMEN KEBIJAKAN MONETER, DEFISIT ANGGARAN, DAN NERACA PEMBAYARAN INDONESIA TAHUN 2002 - 2017

This study aims to analye the linkages of monetary policy instruments, budget deficit and balance of payments with VECM method. This study used secondary data from 2002 quarter I to 2017 quarter IV. The result found one-way interaction between open market operation with Indonesian balance of payments. Money supply has two-way causality relationship with budget deficits and minimum reserve requirement. The exogenous variable which are BI rate and open market operation affected Indonesian’s balance of payments with positive correlation, while the minimum reserve requierment significantly affect Indonesian’s balance of payments with negative correlation. Impulse response found shock of money supply respond to balance of payments positive in the fourth period.This result show that Indonesia’s balance of payments is a monetary phenomenon. So monetary policy instruments BI rate, minimum reserve requirement and open market operation can be used to maintain the stability of Indonesia’s balance of payment.