scholarly journals Trends Analysis of Rainfall and Temperature over Nagwan Watershed, Hazaribagh District, Jharkhand

2020 ◽  
pp. 112-128
Author(s):  
Raj Bahadur ◽  
R. K. Jaiswal ◽  
A. K. Nema ◽  
Anshu Gangwar ◽  
Sandeep Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Annual Average ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Z Value ◽  
The Impact

Trend analysis is performed to find the pattern that prevails in Nagwan watershed area located in Hazaribagh district of Jharkhand (India) having very high average annual rainfall in the range of 1146 mm. The study aims to investigated the impacts of global warming by examine precipitation and temperature change over a period. Non-parametric MK test and Sen’s Slope estimator were used to assess the trend in long-term rainfall and temperature time series (1981-2019). The analysis has been carried out on monthly, seasonal and annual scale to identify meso-scale climate change effect on hydrological regime. The precipitation in the summer showed an increasing trend (Z value +1.67) and there was increasing trend in the seasonal rainfall which influences the total water availability in the watershed. There was increase in minimum temperature during summer season which shows the impact of global warming and may results in increasing the duration of the summer season. The annual average minimum temperature in the watershed showed an increasing trend (Z value +2.08) at 0.05 level of significance indicated hot nights in the summer. The annual average maximum temperature in the watershed showed a decreasing trend (Z value -1.26). Fluctuation and change in trend of rainfall and temperature possess potential risk hence it is important to understand and identify the pattern of rainfall and temperature for assessing impact of climate change and it is necessary to adopt appropriate steps for agriculture crop planning and improving farmer’s capability to cope with challenging situations due to environmental and climate changes.

scholarly journals Analysis of Past and Projected Trends of Rainfall and Temperature Parameters in Eastern and Western Hararghe Zones, Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 67
Author(s):  
Helen Teshome ◽  
Kindie Tesfaye ◽  
Nigussie Dechassa ◽  
Tamado Tana ◽  
Matthew Huber
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Climate Change And Variability ◽  
Annual Minimum Temperature ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Rcp 8.5 ◽  
The Mean ◽  
East And West

Smallholder farmers in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia frequently face problems of climate extremes. Knowledge of past and projected climate change and variability at local and regional scales can help develop adaptation measures. A study was therefore conducted to investigate the spatio-temporal dynamics of rainfall and temperature in the past (1988–2017) and projected periods of 2030 and 2050 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) at selected stations in East and West Hararghe zones, Ethiopia. To detect the trends and magnitude of change Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were employed, respectively. The result of the study indicated that for the last three decades annual and seasonal and monthly rainfall showed high variability but the changes are not statistically significant. On the other hand, the minimum temperature of the ‘Belg’ season showed a significant (p < 0.05) increment. The mean annual minimum temperature is projected to increase by 0.34 °C and 2.52 °C for 2030, and 0.41 °C and 4.15 °C for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Additionally, the mean maximum temperature is projected to change by −0.02 °C and 1.14 °C for 2030, and 0.54 °C and 1.87 °C for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Annual rainfall amount is also projected to increase by 2.5% and 29% for 2030, and 12% and 32% for 2050 under RCP4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Hence, it is concluded that there was an increasing trend in the Belg season minimum temperature. A significant increasing trend in rainfall and temperature are projected compared to the baseline period for most of the districts studied. This implies a need to design climate-smart crop and livestock production strategies, as well as an early warning system to counter the drastic effects of climate change and variability on agricultural production and farmers’ livelihood in the region.

Rainfall and Temperature Trends in Jagtial District of Telangana State

2021 ◽  
pp. 47-59
Author(s):  
N. Navatha ◽  
G. Sreenivas ◽  
R. Umareddy
Keyword(s):  
Trend Analysis ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Negative Trend ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Sen’S Slope ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Z Value ◽  
Telangana State

Aims: To investigate and assess the significance of the potential trend of two variables viz. rainfall, temperature in Jagtial district of Telangana state. Place and Duration of Study: Data of Daily rainfall and temperature data of 39 years (1980-2019) collected from the meteorological observatory at Regional Agricultural Research Station, Polasa, Jagtial. Methodology: In this study, trend analysis has been carried out on monthly, seasonal and annual basis using the data period between 1980 to 2019 for rainfall and temperature. Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimate test were applied to identify the existing trend direction and magnitude of change over time. Results: The rainfall seasonal trend analysis indicates that pre-monsoon, monsoon and post-monsoon and winter period showed a negative rainfall trend with z statistics of-1.47, -2.51, -0.55 and-1.38 respectively. However, the annual rainfall showed a negative trend with a z value of -2.53. In the case of Sen’s slope shows that negative trend in monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall.  But the significant rising trend of monthly, seasonal average temperature is noticed from 1980 onwards. The annual average maximum temperature in the Jagtial showed an increasing trend (Z value +5.03). An increasing trend in the all seasons will lead to increase in annual mean temperature. The results of minimum temperature shows a rising trend and falling trend observed Monthly. However annual mean minimum temperature in the Jagtial District showed an increasing trend (Z value 0.10). In the case of maximum temperature for the observed period, it showed rising trend (Sen's slope = 0.63) while the minimum temperature trend showed no trend (Sen's slope = 0.02). Conclusion: Time series was carried out using nonparametric M–K test and Sen's slope estimator, which are widely used tests for conducting trend analysis. Therefore, its take into think about the rainfall variability in particular and temperature variability in general of the area into their climate change adaptation approach.

scholarly journals Future Impact of Climate Change on the Yield of Cocoa in Ondo State, Nigeria

2019 ◽  
pp. 467-476
Author(s):  
Femi S. Omotayo ◽  
Philip G. Oguntunde ◽  
Ayorinde A. Olufayo
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ondo State ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Cocoa Yield

This study was carried to determine the trend of cocoa yield and climatic variables and assessment of the impact of climate change on the future yield of cocoa in Ondo State, Nigeria. Annual trend statistics for cocoa yield and climatic variables were analyzed for the state using Mann-Kendall test for trend and Sen’s slope estimates. Downscaled data from six Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were used to examine the impact of climate change on the future yield of cocoa in the study area. The results of trends analysis in Ondo State showed that yield decreased monotonically at the rate of 492.18 tonnes/yr (P<0.05). An increased significant trend was established in annual rainfall trend. While Maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and mean temperature all increased at the rate of 0.02/yr (P<0.001). The ensemble of all the GCMs projected a mid-term future decrease of about 9,334 tonnes/yr by 2050 and a long-term future decrease of 13,504 tonnes/yr of cocoa by 2100. The economic implication of these is that, if the projected change in the yield of cocoa as predicted by the ensemble of all the GCMs should hold for the future, it means that Ondo state may experience a loss of about $22,470,018.22 and $32,308,584.32 by the year 2050 and 2100 respectively according to the present price of the commodity in the world market. Measures are to be taken by the government and farmers to find a way of mitigating the impacts of climate change on the future yield of the cocoa study area. This research should be extended to other cocoa producing areas in Nigeria.

scholarly journals Treeline dynamics with climate change at the central Nepal Himalaya

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 1277-1290 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. P. Gaire ◽  
M. Koirala ◽  
D. R. Bhuju ◽  
H. P. Borgaonkar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Plant Density ◽  
Elevation Gradient ◽  
Age Distribution ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
High Mountain ◽  
Nepal Himalaya ◽  
Central Nepal ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Treeline shifting in tandem with climate change has widely been reported from various parts of the world. In Nepal, several impacts of climate change on the physical environment have been observed, but study on the biological impacts is lacking. This dendrochronological study was carried out at the treeline in the high mountain slope of Kalchuman Lake (3750–4003 m a.s.l.) area of Manaslu Conservation Area in the central Nepal Himalaya to explore the impact of climate change on the treeline dynamic. Two belt transect plots (size: 20 m wide, > 250 m long) were laid which included treeline as well as tree species limit. Ecological mapping of all individuals of dominant trees Abies spectabilis and Betula utilis was done and their tree cores were collected. Stand character and age distribution revealed an occurrence of more matured B. utilis (max. age 198 years) compared to A. spectabilis (max. age 160 years). A. spectabilis contained an overwhelmingly high population (89%) of younger plants (< 50 years) indicating its high recruitment rate. Population age structure along the elevation gradient revealed an upward shifting of A. spectabilis at the rate of 2.61 m year-1 since AD 1850. The upper distribution limit of B. utilis was found to be stagnant in the past few decades. An increment in plant density as well as upward shifting in the studied treeline ecotones was observed. The temporal growth of A. spectabilis was correlated negatively with the monthly mean and minimum temperature of June to September of the current and previous year. The regeneration of A. spectabilis, on the other hand, was positively correlated with August precipitation and monthly maximum temperature of the month of the current year. The growth and regeneration of A. spectabilis was more sensitive to maximum and minimum temperature rather than average temperature. The growth of the B. utilis was mainly limited by moisture stress during the pre-monsoon season. As these two species presented species-specific responses to climate change with differential pattern in regeneration condition, much wider differences are anticipated in their population status as climate continues to change throughout the century.

scholarly journals Spatial and Temporal Variations of Temperature in the Punjab Province, Pakistan

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-75
Author(s):  
Sohail Abbas ◽  
Safdar Ali Shirazi ◽  
Nausheen Mazhar ◽  
Kashif Mahmood ◽  
Ashfak Ahmad Khan
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Change ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Punjab Province ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Slope Estimator ◽  
Level Of Significance

Identifying the temperature change at a regional level is one of the essential parameters to determine the intensity of climate change. The current investigation provides an examination of changing trends of temperature in the Punjab province from 1970 to 2019. Sen's slope estimator method is applied to monthly data of mean temperature (Tmean), maximum temperature (Tmax), and minimum temperature (Tmin) to calculate the rate of temperature change. Statistical methods were used to find out the level of significance in terms of negative or positive trends to examine the variability among various weather observatories. Moreover, predicted values have also been observed for a detailed analysis of temperature variability and trends. Significant and pronounced changes in the mean temperature (T mean) are distinguished all over the Punjab regions with an increasing trend from North to South Punjab. In the case of maximum temperature (Tmax), a faster rate of rising in temperature is observed over the Southern and Western regions of Punjab. In contrast, the minimum temperature (Tmin) shows an increasing trend in Central Punjab. The findings provide detailed insight to policymakers for the planning of mitigating efforts and adaptation strategies in response to climate change.

scholarly journals ASSESSMENT OF LONG TERM CLIMATIC VARIABILITY OF UTTARAKHAND

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sujeet Kumar ◽  
Shakti Suryavanshi
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Summer Season ◽  
Climatic Variables ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Mountain Areas ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Increasing Trend

A trend analysis was performed for historic (1901-2002) climatic variables (Rainfall, Maximum Temperature and Minimum Temperature) of Uttarakhand State located in Northern India. In the serially independent climatic variables, Mann-Kendall test (MK test) was applied to the original sample data. However, in the serially correlated series, prewhitening is utilized before employing the MK test. The results of this study indicated a declining trend of rainfall in monsoon season for seven out of thirteen districts of Uttarakhand state. However, an increasing trend was observed in Haridwar and Udhamsingh Nagar districts for summer season rainfall. For maximum and minimum temperature, a few districts exhibited a declining trend in monsoon season whereas many districts exhibited an increasing trend in winter and summer season. Mountain dominated areas (as Uttarakhand state) are specific ecosystems, distinguished by their diversity, sensitivity and intricacy. Thus the variability of rainfall and temperature has a severe and rapid impact on mountainous ecosystems. Nevertheless, mountains have significant impacts on hydrology, which may further threaten populations living in the mountain areas as well as in adjacent, lowland regions.

scholarly journals Trend Analysis of Precipitation and Temperature over Different Districts of Karnataka: An Aid to Climate Change Detection and Cropping System Option

2020 ◽  
pp. 15-25
Author(s):  
S. Sridhara ◽  
Pradeep Gopakkali ◽  
R. Nandini
Keyword(s):  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Cropping System ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Land Preparation ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Increasing Trend

Aims: To know the rainfall and temperature trend for all the districts of Karnataka state to develop suitable coping mechanisms for changing weather conditions during the cropping season. Study Design: The available daily data of rainfall (1971-2011) and minimum and maximum temperature (1971-2007) for each district was collected from NICRA-ICAR website. A non-parametric model such as the Mann-Kendall (MK) test complemented with Sen’s slope estimator was used to determine the magnitude of the trend. Place and Duration of Study: The rainfall data of 41 years (1971-2011) and temperature data of 37 years (1971-2007) was collected for all 27 districts of Karnataka. Methodology: Basic statistics related to rainfall like mean, standard deviation (SD), the coefficient of variation (CV) and the percentage contribution to annual rainfall were computed for monthly and season-wise. Mann-Kendall test was used to detect trend for rainfall as well as temperature. Results: An increasing trend in rainfall during winter, monsoon and annual basis for all most all the districts of Karnataka and decreasing trend of rainfall during pre and post-monsoon season was noticed. An early cessation of rainfall during September month in all most all the districts of Karnataka was observed. Similarly, monthly mean, maximum and the minimum temperature had shown an increasing trend over the past 37 years for all the districts of Karnataka. Conclusion: The more variation in rainfall during the pre-monsoon season was observed, which is more important for land preparation and other operations. The increasing trend of maximum and minimum temperature throughout the year may often cause a reduction in crop yield. It is necessary to change crops with its short duration varieties in order to avoid late season drought.

scholarly journals Time Series Trend and Variability Analysis of Temperature and Rainfall in West Shewa Zone of Oromia, Ethiopia

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Assefa ◽  
Mesfin Mengistu
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Minimum Temperature ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Variability Analysis ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Systematic Planning ◽  
Temperature Records ◽  
C 30

Abstract BackgroundThe paper focus on time series trend and variability analysis of observed rainfall and temperature records from 16 stations during 1985-2015. ResultsBoth the summer and annual rainfall have an increasing trend but not statistically significant. Regards to variability, low to very high levels of variability were recorded according to the seasons and annual rainfall, whereas, moderate to extremely high levels of variability were observed. The result of the Mann Kendall test portrays that the mean minimum temperature was raised by 0.05 oC, while the maximum temperature was increased rose by 0.03 oC/30 years. The monthly maximum temperature also shows an increasing trend with the lowest record during August (22.05 oC) and the highest in the March (26.49 oC) except in the month of November and December. Similarly, an increasing trend was observed with a mean monthly minimum temperature with the lowest mean of 8.42Co in December and the highest mean of 11.12 oC recorded in April. Besides, a low level of variability was seen both in the case of minimum and maximum temperature were observed in all months. ConclusionsTherefore, since the observed trends of both temperature and total rainfall show abnormal shifts, there is an urgent need for policymakers to design systematic planning and management activities to rain-fed agriculture.

scholarly journals Farmers’ perspectives

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 551-579 ◽  
Author(s):  
Winifred Chepkoech ◽  
Nancy W. Mungai ◽  
Silke Stöber ◽  
Hillary K. Bett ◽  
Hermann Lotze-Campen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Humid Zone ◽  
Mean Annual Rainfall ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Understanding farmers’ perceptions of how the climate is changing is vital to anticipating its impacts. Farmers are known to take appropriate steps to adapt only when they perceive change to be taking place. This study aims to analyse how African indigenous vegetable (AIV) farmers perceive climate change in three different agro-climatic zones (ACZs) in Kenya, identify the main differences in historical seasonal and annual rainfall and temperature trends between the zones, discuss differences in farmers’ perceptions and historical trends and analyse the impact of these perceived changes and trends on yields, weeds, pests and disease infestation of AIVs. Design/methodology/approach Data collection was undertaken in focus group discussions (FGD) (N = 211) and during interviews with individual farmers (N = 269). The Mann–Kendall test and regression were applied for trend analysis of time series data (1980-2014). Analysis of variance and least significant difference were used to test for differences in mean rainfall data, while a chi-square test examined the association between farmer perceptions and ACZs. Coefficient of variation expressed as a percentage was used to show variability in mean annual and seasonal rainfall between the zones. Findings Farmers perceived that higher temperatures, decreased rainfall, late onset and early retreat of rain, erratic rainfall patterns and frequent dry spells were increasing the incidences of droughts and floods. The chi-square results showed a significant relationship between some of these perceptions and ACZs. Meteorological data provided some evidence to support farmers’ perceptions of changing rainfall. No trend was detected in mean annual rainfall, but a significant increase was recorded in the semi-humid zone. A decreasing maximum temperature was noted in the semi-humid zone, but otherwise, an overall increase was detected. There were highly significant differences in mean annual rainfall between the zones. Farmers perceived reduced yields and changes in pest infestation and diseases in some AIVs to be prevalent in the dry season. This study’s findings provide a basis for local and timely institutional changes, which could certainly help in reducing the adverse effects of climate change. Originality/value This is an original research paper and the historical trends, farmers’ perceptions and effects of climate change on AIV production documented in this paper may also be representative of other ACZs in Kenya.

scholarly journals Elevation Dependence of the Impact of Global Warming on Rainfall Variations in a Tropical Island

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3582
Author(s):  
Mirindra Finaritra Rabezanahary Tanteliniaina ◽  
Jia Chen ◽  
Tanveer M. Adyel ◽  
Jun Zhai
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Polynomial Regression ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Tropical Country ◽  
Lower Elevation ◽  
Rainfall Variations ◽  
The Impact

Due to their vulnerability, understanding the impacts of global warming on rainfall is important for a tropical country and islands. This research aimed to assess the impact of global warming on rainfall in Madagascar, using the Mann-Kendall test, continuous wavelet transform, and polynomial regression. The result showed that the annual, seasonal maximum, and minimum temperature increased, while elevation amplified the increase of maximum temperature. Different trends in rainfall were found in the 22 regions of Madagascar but in general, the increasing trend in rainfall was prominent at a higher elevation than lower elevation. The annual rainfall decreased up to −5 mm per year for the regions located below 450 m of altitude while increased up to +5 mm per year above 500 m. We found that the wet becomes wetter with an important increase in rainfall in summer and the increase in temperature influenced the rainfall. The annual rainfall increased with temperature and elevation. However, if the increase in temperature was more than 0.03 °C per year, the annual rainfall increased regardless of elevation. The knowledge of the elevation dependence of the impact of warming on rainfall is important for water resources management and climate change adaptation strategies, especially for island nations and African countries.

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