African monsoons, Part 2: Synoptic-scale wave disturbances in the intertropical convergence zone over north Africa

In this part, the paper discusses several aspects of the origin, structure, development and movement of wave disturbances over the North African tropical zone during the northern summer. Analyzing the cases often actual wave disturbances which later in their life cycles developed into hurricanes over the Atlantic, it finds that though the horizontal and vertical shear of the mean zonal wind associated with the mid-tropospheric easterly jet over Africa satisfies the condition of dynamical instability under certain restrictive boundary conditions, it is the influence of a large-amplitude baroclinic wave in mid-latitude westerlies upon a stationary wave in the mountainous region of the east-central north Africa that appears to trigger the birth of a wave disturbance in the intertropical convergence zone over the Nile valley of Sudan between the Marra and the Ethiopian mountains. Physical processes likely to be important in the formation, development and movement of the disturbances are pointed out.

Activity of southern Indiar1 Ocean convergence zone as seen in satellite cloud data during pre-monsoon months

The weekly mean cloud cover data for the pre-monsoon months of April and May over the Indian Ocean between20°S to 20°N latitudes and 40°E to 100" E longitudes have been studied for three good moon- soon years (1977, 1983, 1988) and three drought years (1972,1979, 1987). It is shown that while the characteristics of weekly mean cloud cover data during pre-monsoon months are similar for all the good monsoon years, they varied from one drought year to another. The study reveals some of the interesting features of southwest monsoon. An overall negative relationship between southern Indian Ocean convergence zone (SIOCZ) and monsoon activity is indicated. While at intraseasonal scale this may only be a simultaneous association, the pre-monsoon activity of SIOCZ may possibly have long-range predictive potential to some extent, for Indian monsoon rainfall.

KETERKAITAN PERIODISITAS CURAH HUJAN DI DAERAH PESISIR DAN PEGUNUNGAN PROVINSI JAWA TIMUR DENGAN VARIABILITAS CUACA SKALA GLOBAL DAN REGIONAL

Intisari Jawa Timur merupakan wilayah yang memiliki variasi curah hujan yang dipengaruhi oleh fenomena cuaca global dan regional seperti Dipole Mode, El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Intertropical Convergence Zone, Madden Julian Oscillation, dan monsun. Topografi yang beragam juga menjadi faktor yang memengaruhi curah hujan di daerah Jawa Timur. Berbagai indeks digunakan untuk melihat aktivitas-aktivitas fenomena cuaca tersebut, seperti DMI untuk aktivitas Dipole Mode, NINO 3.4 untuk aktivitas ENSO, Indeks RMM untuk aktivitas MJO, WNPMI dan, AUSMI untuk aktivitas monsun. Pada penelitian ini digunakan analisis spektral dengan menggunakan metode Fast Fourier Transform untuk melihat periodisitas indeks masing-masing terhadap periodisitas curah hujan dari data 11 pos hujan yang terbagi menjadi 6 pos hujan daerah pesisir dan 5 pos hujan daerah pegunungan. Hasil dari penyeragaman periodisitas fenomena cuaca dengan curah hujan antara lain Dipole Mode (periodisitas 18 bulan), ENSO (periodisitas 18 dan 40 bulan), dan MJO (periodisitas 2 dan 3 bulan). Fenomena yang memengaruhi curah hujan di daerah pesisir maupun pegunungan secara dominan adalah fenomena monsun dengan diikuti ITCZ. Fenomena lain yang memengaruhi di daerah pesisir antara lain dominan MJO, serta fenomena ENSO dan Dipole Mode yang memengaruhi daerah Lamongan, Bunder, dan P3GI dengan kecenderungan lebih kuat pada fenomena Dipole Mode. Sementara itu, fenomena yang memengaruhi hujan di daerah pegunungan secara dominan adalah ENSO. Adapun fenomena lain yang memengaruhi hujan di daerah pegunungan antara lain fenomena MJO di daerah Tosari, serta daerah Kebon Teh Wonosari yang memiliki kecenderungan dipengaruhi oleh fenomena Dipole Mode meskipun pengaruhnya tidak signifikan. Abstract East Java is a region whose variations in rainfall are influenced by global and regional weather phenomena such as Dipole Mode, El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Intertropical Convergence Zone, Madden Julian Oscillation, and monsoons. Diverse topography is also a factor affecting rainfall in the area of East Java. Various indices are used to observe the activities of the weather phenomenon, such as DMI for Dipole Mode activities, NINO 3.4 for ENSO activities, RMM Index for MJO activities, as well as WNPMI and AUSMI for monsoon activities. In this study, spectral analysis was used by utilizing the Fast Fourier Transform method to see the periodicity of each index against the periodicity of rainfall from the 11 rainwater data points, which were divided into 6 coastal data points and 5 mountainous data points. Uniformity of weather phenomena with rainfall result among others Dipole Mode (18 months periodicity), ENSO (18 and 40-month periodicity), and MJO (2 and 3-month periodicity). Phenomena that affect rainfall in coastal and mountainous areas predominantly are monsoon, followed by ITCZ. Other phenomena affecting the coastal area include MJO dominant, and the ENSO and Dipole Mode phenomena that affect the Lamongan, Bunder, and P3GI regions with a stronger tendency to the Dipole Mode phenomenon. Another phenomenon that influences rain in the mountainous area is dominantly ENSO, while other phenomena include MJO phenomena in the Tosari area and Kebon Teh Wonosari region which has a tendency to be influenced by the Dipole Mode phenomenon despite the insignificant effect.

Objective Identification and Characterisation of Pacific ITCZs in ERA5 and CMIP5 models and their representation in RCMs

<p>The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is recognised as the most crucial feature of the tropical climate producing more than 30% of the global precipitation. Its variability dramatically affects the people living in tropical areas. In the eastern Pacific, a pair of ITCZ, one at each side of the equator, during the boreal spring is evident. It is known as the Double Intertropical Convergence Zone (DITCZ). Generally, the ITCZ in the Pacific is located in the Northern Hemisphere (NH); however, during extreme El Niño events, it can cross the equator, or a wide band of deep convection extending over both hemispheres is to be observed. The DITCZ exists more frequently and with much more strength in General Circulation Models (GCMs), resulting in a spurious bias. The DITCZ bias has been a long-standing tropical bias in climate model simulations since the early beginning. Despite the intense research on the tropical climate and its features, fewer studies investigated the state of the ITCZs through an objective and automated algorithm. Also, much fewer studies have applied such an algorithm to the GCMs output. Unfortunately, far too little attention has been paid to examining how DITCZ bias is transmitted to Regional Climate Models (RCMs). Furthermore, the input variables to the RCM from GCM are prognostic such as wind, temperature and humidity. Since precipitation is not an input, it would be interesting to examine how the representation of ITCZs in the GCMs is unfolded in the RCMs. The method adopted in this study depends on an objective and automated algorithm developed and modified by earlier studies. The algorithm uses layer- and time-averaged winds in the lower troposphere (seven layers between 1000 and 850 hPa), in addition to wet-blub potential temperature, to automatically detect the centre latitude of the ITCZs. Furthermore, it uses GPCP or CMIP5 model precipitation to obtain the extents (i.e. boundaries) of the ITCZs and the precipitation intensities. From reanalysis datasets, the NH ITCZs are found near 8°N, while the Southern Hemisphere (SH) ITCZs are near 5°S. In CMIP5 models, the DITCZ is much stronger and more frequent, and it occurs year-round. Generally, the NH ITCZs are located between 8°N and 10°N while the SH ITCZs are located between 5°S and 10°S. Moreover, models overestimate the tropical precipitation mainly, the centre and full ITCZ intensities. Furthermore, it indicates more vigorous convection in the NH ITCZs than in the SH ITCZs. The study also found that the state of ITCZ in GCMs directly influences the bias in RCM monthly precipitation. However, it depends mainly on the RCM employed. The most affected nations by DITCZ bias are Ecuador and Peru. Quantitative in-depth analysis of precipitation of GCMs and RCMs is still <span>on</span>going.</p>

The South Pacific Convergence Zone as Depicted in Reanalysis and Satellite Products

<p>The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate of Southwest Pacific Island nations. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short and long term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its location and strength is strongly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), leading to large inter-annual and decadal variability in rainfall across the Southwest Pacific. Much of the analysis on the SPCZ has been restricted to the modern period, more specifically the “satellite era”, starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product, which reconstructs the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere based only on surface observations is discussed. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (versions 2 and 2c) in the satellite era is tested via inter-comparison with other reanalysis and observational satellite products, before using 20CR version 2c (20CRv2c) to perform extended analysis back to the early twentieth century. This study demonstrates that 20CR performs well in the satellite era, and is considered suitable for extended analysis. It is established that extra data added in the SPCZ region between 20CR versions 2 and 2c has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908-1958. Well-established relationships between ENSO and the IPO with the SPCZ are shown to be present through the entire 1908-2011 period, although it is suggested that the physical link between the IPO and the SPCZ has changed between the first and second half of the twentieth century. Finally, evidence of a southward trend of the SPCZ over the past century is presented, potentially due to an expansion of the tropics as a result of climate change.</p>

The South Pacific Convergence Zone as Depicted in Reanalysis and Satellite Products

<p>The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the largest rainfall feature in the Southern Hemisphere, and is a critical component of the climate of Southwest Pacific Island nations. The small size and isolated nature of these islands leaves them vulnerable to short and long term changes in the position of the SPCZ. Its location and strength is strongly modulated by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and the Inter-decadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), leading to large inter-annual and decadal variability in rainfall across the Southwest Pacific. Much of the analysis on the SPCZ has been restricted to the modern period, more specifically the “satellite era”, starting in 1979. Here, the representation of the SPCZ in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR) product, which reconstructs the three-dimensional state of the atmosphere based only on surface observations is discussed. The performance of two versions of the 20CR (versions 2 and 2c) in the satellite era is tested via inter-comparison with other reanalysis and observational satellite products, before using 20CR version 2c (20CRv2c) to perform extended analysis back to the early twentieth century. This study demonstrates that 20CR performs well in the satellite era, and is considered suitable for extended analysis. It is established that extra data added in the SPCZ region between 20CR versions 2 and 2c has improved the representation of the SPCZ during 1908-1958. Well-established relationships between ENSO and the IPO with the SPCZ are shown to be present through the entire 1908-2011 period, although it is suggested that the physical link between the IPO and the SPCZ has changed between the first and second half of the twentieth century. Finally, evidence of a southward trend of the SPCZ over the past century is presented, potentially due to an expansion of the tropics as a result of climate change.</p>

Formation, Thermodynamic Structure, and Airflow of a Japan Sea Polar-Airmass Convergence Zone

The Sea of Japan (SOJ) coast and adjoining orography of central Honshu, Japan receive substantial snowfall each winter. A frequent contributor during cold-air outbreaks (CAOs) is the Japan Sea Polar-Airmass Convergence Zone (JPCZ), which forms downstream of the Korean Highlands, extends southeastward to Honshu, and generates a mesoscale band of precipitation. Mesoscale polar vortices (MPVs) ranging in horizontal scale from tens (i.e., meso-β-scale cyclones) to several hundred kilometers (i.e., “polar lows”) are also common during CAOs and often interact with the JPCZ. Here we use satellite imagery and Weather Research and Forecast model (WRF) simulations to examine the formation, thermodynamic structure, and airflow of a JPCZ that formed in the wake of an MPV during a CAO from 2–7 February 2018. The MPV and its associated warm seclusion and bent-back front developed in a locally warm, convergent, and convective environment over the SOJ near the base of the Korean Peninsula. The nascent JPCZ was structurally continuous with the bent-back front and lengthened as the MPV migrated southeastward. Trajectories illustrate how flow splitting around the Korean Highlands, channeling through low passes and valleys along the Asian coast, and air-sea interactions affect the formation and thermodynamic structure of the JPCZ. Contrasts in airmass origin and thermodynamic modification over the SOJ affect the cross-JPCZ temperature gradient, which reverses in sign along the JPCZ from the Asian coast to Honshu. These results provide new insights into the thermodynamic structure of the JPCZ, which is an important contributor to hazardous weather over Japan.

Large scale fluctuations of the Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ) during pilot CTCZ phase-2009 and the evolution of monsoon drought in 2009

Summer monsoon season of the year 2009 resulted in a major drought on the scale of India with rainfall deficiency of 23% from the normal. This was the monsoon season when a pilot phase of the programme Continental Tropical Convergence Zone (CTCZ), a planned multiyear programme to understand the complex interactions among the land, ocean, atmosphere, biosphere components of the regional monsoon climate system, was undertaken. The paper attempts to document the major features in the evolution of monsoon 2009 and provides a preliminary diagnosis of the causes for monsoon drought.