МОДЕЛЮВАННЯ ЧИСЕЛЬНОСТІ ГРИЗУНІВ У ЛІСОВИХ БІОТОПАХ ЗАХІДНОГО ПОДІЛЛЯ (НА ПРИКЛАДІ MYODES GLAREOLUS)

Monitoring and predicting the dynamics of abundance of species living in natural habitats is an important component stability analysis of ecosystem as well as dynamics and direction of change of biotic communities under global climate change and pressure of the alien species. The aim of the work was to build a matrix model and study the state of stabilisation of the dynamics of the bank vole population within the Leslie model. The object of the study was the population dynamics of Myodes glareolus Schreber, 1780 = Clethrionomys glareolus auct. The study is based on materials obtained during 2017–2019. This period covered one phase of the long-term population dynamics of the bank vole, named “population growth”. The research was carried out according to generally accepted methods. A total of 6400 trap-days were processed, and 358 forest fistulas were collected and studied. The intensity of harmful activity of rodents is due to the variability of the number of animals in the population. The quantitative population changes are the result of three factors: births, deaths, and migrations. The main condition for the existence of the species is the stability of the population, which is determined by the action of thecompensatory mechanisms. The growth phase of the bank vole lasted all three years of the research, the quantitative indicators were respectively: 2017 – 1.8 individuals per 100 trap-days; 2018 – 2.0 individuals per 100 trap-days; 2019 – 2.7 individuals per 100 trap-days. Low levels of the abundance in the spring of each year of the study, namely at the beginning of the breeding season (3.7 – 2.6 – 8.9 individuals per 100 trap-days). Favourable for the abundance growth was the sex ratio of the population (approximately 1:1), with some rise in the share of females, which decreases on the period of spring 2018 to autumn 2019). Some decrease in the share of immature individuals (4.5 – 3.9 – 3.1 %) is an indirect confirmation of the stability of puberty of animals with subsequent replenishment of the "stock", which led to accelerated reproduction and, consequently, provided prerequisites for further population growth. The causal mechanisms of population control established by us, without a doubt, can serve as a basis for further prognosis, of the number of pests in natural habitats. To predict population changes, the Leslie model, which is widely used in mathematical analyses of the abundance of both plant and animal groups, was chosen. The algorithm for building a matrix model, detailed in the article, has five following steps. The exponential nature of the actual and projected growth of the bank vole population during the five-year cycle (2017–2019 with a prognosis until 2023) revealed in the analysis can be explained not so much by the power of the species' reproductive potential as by the lack of the significant changes in habitat, caused by constant weather conditions, low individual mortality from predators and non-communicable diseases or other accidents. The application of the matrix model allowed to confirm the key role of the main compensatory mechanisms of population dynamics, as they contribute to the stabilisation of the population and, as a consequence, are an important condition for the existence of the species.

Timing outweighs magnitude of rainfall in shaping population dynamics of a small mammal species in steppe grassland

Climate change–induced shifts in species phenology differ widely across trophic levels, which may lead to consumer–resource mismatches with cascading population and ecosystem consequences. Here, we examined the effects of different rainfall patterns (i.e., timing and amount) on the phenological asynchrony of population of a generalist herbivore and their food sources in semiarid steppe grassland in Inner Mongolia. We conducted a 10-y (2010 to 2019) rainfall manipulation experiment in 12 0.48-ha field enclosures and found that moderate rainfall increases during the early rather than late growing season advanced the timing of peak reproduction and drove marked increases in population size through increasing the biomass of preferred plant species. By contrast, greatly increased rainfall produced no further increases in vole population growth due to the potential negative effect of the flooding of burrows. The increases in vole population size were more coupled with increased reproduction of overwintered voles and increased body mass of young-of-year than with better survival. Our results provide experimental evidence for the fitness consequences of phenological mismatches at the population level and highlight the importance of rainfall timing on the population dynamics of small herbivores in the steppe grassland environment.

The phenomenon of the shrinking size of bank vole (Myodes glareolus) in an anthropogenic environment (experience of 50 years of observations)

Fifty years of continuous monitoring of the bank vole population (Myodes glareolus Schreber, 1780) revealed the phenomenon of shrinking body size of individuals, manifesting in significant reduction in their regular size and mass parameters. Field observations were carried out in the Kaniv Nature Reserve (Cherkasy region, Ukraine) during the first half of summer every year. In the forest biotopes of the reserve, this species is dominant in the group of rodents. The research period covered various stages of the existence of the protected ecosystem. Its small area, location ina densely populated region of Ukraine and interaction with neighboring territories which are involved in economic activities have always caused anthropogenic pressure on the protected area. Its nature and intensity determined the changes in the protection regime and the loss of reserve status in 1951–1968. Later, the territory of the reserve experienced increasing technogenic pressure accompanied by radioactive contamination. In this work, to compare their characteristics, four complete cycles of the density dynamics of the bank vole population (from depression to depression) were selected, the duration of which was 4–5 years. The first three cycles correspond to qualitatively different periods in the existence of the ecosystem and the population of the studied species, and the last one corresponds to the relatively current situation. Over the recent 30 years, the size and mass parameters of individuals of bank voles have deсreased, - this phenomenon was called shrinking. The process was also observed to tend towards consistent increase in scale. Differentiated analysis shows that in different sex and functional groups of animals, the decrease in exterior parameters can reach 30.3%. Shrinking is especially notable in the group of adult females that are actively involved in reproduction (compared to the second cycle, considered as the control, the decrease in parameters among these is 33.2%). Juveniles of this sex lost 31.8% of their fatness. Besides, in the population of voles, the proportion of large-size individuals was significantly reduced. The group of animals that overwintered significantly reduced its representation, and its existing representatives had much smaller exterior parameters. The studies found that the shrinking process is stable over time, which does not allow it to be considered a random phenomenon or an artifact of research. This phenomenon has no correlation with the amount or availability of food. It occurs against the background of numerous changes in various aspects of population dynamics, which gives grounds to associate it with anthropogenic changes in the environment. Shrinking is believed to be realized through various mechanisms. Firstly, as a result of mortality, the largest individuals and reproducing females with the greatest energy needs disappear from the population, and secondly, the growth and weight gain of young animals is slower. As a result, decrease in the size and mass parameters of individuals reduces their specific energy needs and allows the population to bring their requirements in correspondance with the capability of the environment to support a certain number of resource consumers. An analogy was drawn with the Dehnel’s phenomenon, described for shrews of the Sorex genus, whose body size and weight decrease is an element of preparation for experiencing adverse winter conditions. Based on similar concepts, the shrinking of its elements can be considered as a specific population strategy to maintain the ecological balance.

Plant herbivore interactions: combined effect of ground water level, root vole grazing and sedge silication

1. Silicon mediated plant–herbivore interactions have gained increasing recognition and have now been studied in a wide range of species. Many studies have also considered accumulation of Si by plants as a process largely driven by geo-hydrological cycles. 2. To identify factors driving the water - plant Si - herbivore nexus we analysed the concentration of Si in fibrous tussock sedge (Carex appropinquata), the population density of the root vole (Microtus oeconomus) and the ground water level, over 11 years. 3. The largest influence of autumn Si concentration in leaves (Sileaf) was the level of the current year’s ground water table, which accounted for 13.3% of its variance. The previous year’s vole population density was weakly positively correlated with Sileaf and alone explained 9.5% of its variance. 4. The only variable found to have a positive, significant effect on autumn Si concentration in rhizomes (Sirhiz) was the current year spring water level explaining as much as 60.9% of its variance. 5. We conclude that the changes in Si concentration in fibrous tussock sedge are predominantly driven by hydrology, with vole population dynamics being secondary. Our results provide only partial support for the existence of plant-herbivore interactions, as we did not detect the significant effects of Si tussock concentration on the vole density dynamics. This was mainly due to low level of silification of sedges, which was insufficient to impinge herbivores. Future studies on plant–herbivore interactions should therefore mainly focus on identification of mechanisms and conditions allowing plants to accumulate silica at the levels sufficient to act as an anti-herbivore protection.

Timing outweighs amount of rainfall in shaping population dynamics

Climate variability has been widely documented to have bottom-up effects on the population dynamics of animals1,2, but the mechanisms underlying these effects have been rarely investigated through field manipulative experiments that control for confounding factors3. Here, we examined the effects of different rainfall patterns (i.e. timing and amount) on the population size of Brandt’s voles Lasiopodomys brandtii in semi-arid steppe grassland in Inner-Mongolia by conducting a 10-year (2010-2019) rainfall manipulation experiment in twelve 0.48 ha field enclosures. We found that moderate rainfall increase during the early rather than late growing season drove marked increases in population size through increasing the biomass of preferred plant species, whereas heavily increased rainfall produced no further increase in vole population growth. The increase in vole population size was more coupled with increased reproduction of overwintered voles and increased body mass of young-of-year than with better survival. Our results provide the first experimental evidence for the bottom-up effects of changing rainfall on the population growth of small mammals, and highlight the importance of rainfall timing on the population dynamics of wildlife in the steppe grassland environment.

Numerical response of predators to large variations of grassland vole abundance, long-term community change and prey switches

Voles can reach high densities with multi-annual population fluctuations of large amplitude, and they are at the base of large and rich communities of predators in temperate and arctic food webs. This status places them at the heart of management conflicts wherein crop protection and health concerns are often raised against conservation issues. Here, a 20-year survey describes the effects of large variations in grassland vole populations on the densities and the daily theoretical food intakes (TFI) of vole predators based on roadside counts. Our results show how the predator community responds to prey variations of large amplitude and how it reorganized with the increase in a dominant predator, here the red fox, which likely negatively impacted hare, European wildcat and domestic cat populations. They also indicate which subset of predator species might have a role in vole population control in the critical phase of a low density of grassland voles. Our study provides empirical support for more timely and better focused actions in wildlife management and vole population control, and it supports an evidence-based and constructive dialogue about management targets and options between all stakeholders of such socio-ecosystems.