Arctic Freshwater in CMIP6: Declining Sea Ice, Increasing Ocean Storage and Export

<p>Recently, the Arctic has undergone substantial changes in sea ice cover and the hydrologic cycle, both of which strongly impact the freshwater storage in, and export from, the Arctic Ocean. Here we analyze Arctic freshwater storage and fluxes in 7 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) and assess their agreement over the historical period (1980-2000) and in two future emissions scenarios, SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5. In the historical simulation, few models agree closely with observations over 1980-2000. In both future scenarios the models show an increase in liquid (ocean) freshwater storage in conjunction with a reduction in solid storage and fluxes through the major Arctic gateways (Bering Strait, Fram Strait, Davis Strait, and the Barents Sea Opening) that is typically larger for SSP5-8.5 than SSP1-2.6. The liquid fluxes through the gateways exhibit a more complex pattern, with models exhibiting a change in sign of the freshwater flux through the Barents Sea Opening and little change in the flux through the Bering Strait in addition to increased export from the remaining straits by the end of the 21st century. A decomposition of the liquid fluxes into their salinity and volume contributions shows that the Barents Sea flux changes are driven by salinity changes, while the Bering Strait flux changes are driven by compensating salinity and volume changes. In the straits west of Greenland (Nares, Barrow, and Davis straits), the models disagree on whether there will be a decrease, increase, or steady liquid freshwater export in the early to mid 21st century, although they mostly show increased liquid freshwater export in the late 21st century. The underlying cause of this is a difference in the magnitude and timing of a simulated decrease in the volume flux through these straits. Although the models broadly agree on the sign of late 21st century storage and flux changes, substantial differences exist between the magnitude of these changes and the models’ Arctic mean states, which shows no fundamental improvement in the models compared to CMIP5.</p>

Freshwater export from the south-east Greenland shelf into the Irminger Sea and relation to wind events

<p>Greenland Ice Sheet melt and freshening of the Arctic Ocean lead to increased discharge of freshwater into the East Greenland Current. If this additional freshwater reaches the convective regions of the Subpolar North Atlantic it could weaken deep mixing and affect the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation. In particular, freshwater exported away from the South-East Greenland shelf could affect deep convection in the Irminger Sea, which has recently been shown to have a key role in the Atlantic overturning circulation. Though export of fresh shelf surface water is well observed west of Greenland, there is still little insight into surface water export from the East Greenland shelf to the Irminger Sea.</p><p>The East Greenland Current Drifter Investigation of Freshwater Transport drifter deployment conducted in August 2019 at 65°N on the eastern side of Greenland, resulted in five out of 30 drifters being exported away from the east Greenland shelf, four of which were exported at Cape Farewell. The specific wind regime at Cape Farewell is a potential driving factor for enhanced freshwater export in the area. While persistent south-eastward barrier winds push surface waters to the coast over most of the eastern shelf, Cape Farewell experiences strong eastward wind events such as tip-jets that could cause off-shelf export. Using wind data from the ERA-5 atmospheric reanalysis, we compute Ekman transport along the east Greenland shelf. We find greater probability for off-shelf Ekman transport at Cape Farewell than along the rest of the shelf, confirming that the area is the most likely to contribute to wind-driven freshwater export to the Irminger Sea. Wind and surface velocity data from a high-resolution model (2 km) are used to further investigate and quantify freshwater export at Cape Farewell and how it relates to local wind events.</p>

Arctic freshwater cycle and the interaction with the North Atlantic

<p>This study aims to evaluate to what extent atmospheric, land and ocean related datasets in the Climate Data Store are suitable for performing studies on the Arctic freshwater cycle and the interaction with the North Atlantic. The Arctic freshwater cycle is analyzed on the mean, seasonal cycle, and the trend of the atmospheric terms, runoff, ocean liquid and sea-ice freshwater storage over Arctic Ocean (AO) and transport through the Fram Strait (FS), Bering Strait (BS), Barents Sea branch (BSB) and Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA).</p><p>It is found that (1) the annual mean freshwater input to the AO is dominated by the river runoff (38%), inflow through BS (30%), and net precipitation (24%) and the total freshwater export from the AO is dominated by the outflow through the FS (53%) and CAA (34%). Though the net precipitation over ocean, runoff from drainage basin and seawater and sea-ice freshwater transport through the BS are close to other studies, the much lower annual mean ocean freshwater exports from the FS and CAA contribute to the imbalance of the AO freshwater cycle based on ORAS5 reanalysis data. (2) The precipitation and total water column over the ocean and land are largest in summer, while the evaporation is smallest over ocean and largest over land in summer. The total runoff in June is largest and is modulated by the snow melting though the net precipitation is the smallest. AO liquid freshwater storage increases from May to September with a peak value in September. The ocean liquid freshwater imports from the BS and exports from CAA show much larger values in summer, while the sea-ice freshwater exports in summer is strongest for the CAA but weakest for the FS. The weakest sea-ice freshwater export from the FS is consistent with other studies though the values are much smaller. (3) Both the precipitation and evaporation over the AO increased significantly, while over land only the evaporation increased and the net precipitation decreased during both 1979-2018 and 1990-2018. The moisture convergence over land increased significantly during 1979-2018 and the total water volume over the ocean and land has also increased. The annual mean runoff decreased during 1979-2018 and is much improved with a lower trend from ERA5-land outputs than ERA5. The annual mean AO freshwater storage as sea ice decreased, while the annual mean ocean liquid freshwater storage increased during both 1979-2018 and 1990-2018. </p><p>It is indicated that (1) the usage of ERA5 reanalysis data is recommended for the atmospheric freshwater cycle, and ERA5-land data for runoff, while freshwater transport from the FS and CAA are not well represented on ORAS5 reanalysis data. (2) The trends of AO liquid and sea-ice freshwater transport are very sensitive to the chosen period and quite uncertain. Extreme care must be exercised when using ORAS5 data to study the AO freshwater transport. (3) The use of ORAS5 ocean products is not recommended before 1990, as some adjustment seems to occur during the 1979-1990 period. </p>

Arctic Ocean and Hudson Bay Freshwater Exports: New Estimates from Seven Decades of Hydrographic Surveys on the Labrador Shelf

While reasonable knowledge of multidecadal Arctic freshwater storage variability exists, we have little knowledge of Arctic freshwater exports on similar time scales. A hydrographic time series from the Labrador Shelf, spanning seven decades at annual resolution, is here used to quantify Arctic Ocean freshwater export variability west of Greenland. Output from a high-resolution coupled ice–ocean model is used to establish the representativeness of those hydrographic sections. Clear annual to decadal variability emerges, with high freshwater transports during the 1950s and 1970s–80s, and low transports in the 1960s and from the mid-1990s to 2016, with typical amplitudes of 30 mSv (1 Sv = 106 m3 s−1). The variability in both the transports and cumulative volumes correlates well both with Arctic and North Atlantic freshwater storage changes on the same time scale. We refer to the “inshore branch” of the Labrador Current as the Labrador Coastal Current, because it is a dynamically and geographically distinct feature. It originates as the Hudson Bay outflow, and preserves variability from river runoff into the Hudson Bay catchment. We find a need for parallel, long-term freshwater transport measurements from Fram and Davis Straits to better understand Arctic freshwater export control mechanisms and partitioning of variability between routes west and east of Greenland, and a need for better knowledge and understanding of year-round (solid and liquid) freshwater fluxes on the Labrador shelf. Our results have implications for wider, coherent atmospheric control on freshwater fluxes and content across the Arctic Ocean and northern North Atlantic Ocean.

Depth and properties of freshwater export from the Greenland Ice Sheet modulated by ice-ocean processes

<p>Freshwater export from the Greenland Ice Sheet to the surrounding ocean has increased by 50% since the early 1990s, and may triple over the coming century under high greenhouse gas emissions. This increasing freshwater has the potential to influence both the regional and large-scale ocean, including marine ecosystems. Yet quantification of these impacts remains uncertain in part due to poor characterization of freshwater export, and in particular the transformation of freshwater around the ice sheet margin by ice-ocean processes, such as submarine melting, plumes and fjord circulation. Here, we combine in-situ observations, ocean reanalyses and simple models for ice-ocean processes to estimate the depth and properties of freshwater export around the full Greenland ice sheet from 1991 to present. The results show significant regional variability driven primarily by the depth at which freshwater runoff leaves the ice sheet. Areas with deeply-grounded marine-terminating glaciers are likely to export freshwater to the ocean as a dilute mixture of freshwater and externally-sourced deep water masses, while freshwater from areas with many land-terminating glaciers is exported as a more concentrated mixture of freshwater and near-surface waters. A handful of large glacier-fjord systems dominate ice sheet freshwater export, and the vast majority of freshwater export occurs subsurface. Our results provide an ice sheet-wide first-order characterization of how ice-ocean processes modulate Greenland freshwater export, and are an important step towards accurate representation of Greenland freshwater in large-scale ocean models.</p>

Changing characteristics of runoff and freshwater export from watersheds draining northern Alaska

The quantity and quality of river discharge in Arctic regions is influenced by many processes including climate, watershed attributes and, increasingly, hydrological cycle intensification and permafrost thaw. We used a hydrological model to quantify baseline conditions and investigate the changing character of hydrological elements for Arctic watersheds between Utqiagvik (formerly known as Barrow)) and just west of Mackenzie River over the period 1981–2010. A synthesis of measurements and model simulations shows that the region exports 31.9 km3 yr−1 of freshwater via river discharge, with 55.5 % (17.7 km3 yr−1) coming collectively from the Colville, Kuparuk, and Sagavanirktok rivers. The simulations point to significant (p<0.05) increases (134 %–212 % of average) in cold season discharge (CSD) for several large North Slope rivers including the Colville and Kuparuk, and for the region as a whole. A significant increase in the proportion of subsurface runoff to total runoff is noted for the region and for 24 of the 42 study basins, with the change most prevalent across the northern foothills of the Brooks Range. Relatively large increases in simulated active-layer thickness (ALT) suggest a physical connection between warming climate, permafrost degradation, and increasing subsurface flow to streams and rivers. A decline in terrestrial water storage (TWS) is attributed to losses in soil ice that outweigh gains in soil liquid water storage. Over the 30-year period, the timing of peak spring (freshet) discharge shifts earlier by 4.5 d, though the time trend is only marginally (p=0.1) significant. These changing characteristics of Arctic rivers have important implications for water, carbon, and nutrient cycling in coastal environments.