An Application of Natural Language Processing to Classify What Terrorists Say They Want

Knowing what perpetrators want can inform strategies to achieve safe, secure, and sustainable societies. To help advance the body of knowledge in counterterrorism, this research applied natural language processing and machine learning techniques to a comprehensive database of terrorism events. A specially designed empirical topic modeling technique provided a machine-aided human decision process to glean six categories of perpetrator aims from the motive text narrative. Subsequently, six different machine learning models validated the aim categories based on the accuracy of their association with a different narrative field, the event summary. The ROC-AUC scores of the classification ranged from 86% to 93%. The Extreme Gradient Boosting model provided the best predictive performance. The intelligence community can use the identified aim categories to help understand the incentive structure of terrorist groups and customize strategies for dealing with them.

Blame It on Sex

This chapter addresses the ultimate driver of competition—sexual selection, the root biological force generating inequality. Like other animals, humans must solve the ecological problems necessary for survival and reproduction. Everyone exists only because their ancestors were successful in doing just that. They were the most successfully competitive in using the resources available in their environments to survive and reproduce. As humans have culturally evolved, what has enabled humans to stand out in their competition for mates has varied according to the prevailing politically determined social institutions. These institutions set the incentive structure, providing guidance as to what kinds of behavior gain high status. High status is sexually attractive. Over history, the sources of status have varied. Individuals have achieved high status by being the best hunters and gatherers, the best warriors, the most cooperative, the most generous, and, since the rise of the state, the wealthiest and most politically powerful.

From Aboriginal Equality to Limited and Unstable Inequality

During the first 97 percent of the approximately 200,000-year history of Homo sapiens, when humans existed as hunter-gatherers and early agriculturalists, they lived with little political and economic inequality, due to the ready availability of stone weapons and ability of the weaker ones to form defensive coalitions blocking bullies’ attempts to amass political power. Their egalitarian incentive structure rewarded them for sharing food, child care, and practically everything else. The slow adoption of agriculture beginning about 10,000 years ago created the material condition on which a limited degree of social hierarchy could develop. About 9,000 years ago, chiefs arose by ideologically claiming special access to celestial powers to better assure the welfare of the community. They thereby gained greater access to material goods and mates. However, their legitimacy was fragile, readily upset by poor harvests or other catastrophes that delegitimated their ideology and returned their societies to economic and political equality.

Conversational Pragmatics: Memory Reporting Strategies in Different Social Contexts

Conversational pragmatics studies, among others, factors that affect the information we share with others. Previous research showed that when participants are unsure about the correctness of an answer, they report fewer answers. This behavior strongly depends on the incentive structure of the social context where the question-response exchange takes place. In this research we studied how the different incentive structure of several types of social contexts affects conversational pragmatics and the amount of information we are willing to share. In addition, we also studied how different levels of knowledge may affect memory reporting in different social contexts. Participants answered easy, intermediate, and difficult general knowledge questions and decided whether they would report or withhold their selected answer in different social contexts: formal vs. informal, and constrained (a context that promotes providing only responses we are certain about) vs. loose (with an incentive structure that maximizes providing any type of answer). Overall, our results confirmed that social contexts are associated with a different incentive structure which affect memory reporting strategies, and that the effect of social contexts depended on the difficulty of the questions. Our results highlight the relevance of studying the different incentive structures of social contexts to understand the underlying processes of conversational pragmatics, and stress the importance of considering metamemory theories of memory reporting.

Discussion of citizen behavioural change using the nudge effect: a perspective based on social policy interventions

PurposeThis study aims to present a communication model for promoting value co-creation between citizens and policymakers and to draw out proposals on the rationale in implementing nudge effect as well as key policy implications. The paper also revisits the close relationship between information senders and receivers (citizens) from the perspective of “citizen behaviour change” and focuses on the nudge effect, which strengthens the communication skills of policymakers (information senders) and accelerates the behaviour change of citizens (i.e. the recipients of information). Based on the study, the authors propose a conceptual framework to explain the spontaneous incentive structure of citizens.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses a conceptual discussion based on a literature review. It examines the nudge effect on citizen behaviour based on information and communications models and theories. From critical discussions of literature, it proposes an analytical model that focuses on the nudge effect put forward in behavioural economics and takes into account the importance of measures to increase the sensitivity and empathy of the recipients of information.FindingsThe authors revisited the relationship between information senders and receivers from the perspective of citizen behavioural change and focus on the nudge effect, which strengthens the communication power of policymakers and accelerates the behavioural change of citizens (i.e. the recipients of information). According to the study, the authors propose a conceptual framework to explain citizens' spontaneous incentive structure. The dual perspective of policymakers and citizens should be central to the collaboration between citizens and policymakers to enhance the effectiveness of social policies, where the scope and type of value generated and the perspective of social value are essential.Research limitations/implicationsThis paper bridges the interdisciplinary research fields of behavioural economics and social policy. It is hoped that the model proposed in this paper will be an effective discussion framework for relevant researchers and practitioners when considering human resource training and system building related to information dissemination. In addition, it is hoped the model will be an effective tool for deepening discussions on topics that help to facilitate information transfer and communication within organisations.Practical implicationsThe realisation of policy intentions within the core elements of the social policy process, such as the definition of key objectives, policy mechanisms and legislation, are central elements of policy formation and are said to be highly similar across countries. The framework proposed in this study is a valid resource that can be applied in other countries and can be expected to act an effective guidepost for policy makers and other stakeholders engaged in social policy.Originality/valueUp to this point, in examinations of encouraging behavioural change in information recipients, attention has been focussed on the aspect of increasing the sender's ability to transmit information. Interventions, such as increasing the energy of the delivery, increasing the frequency and diversifying the media to make a strong impression on the receiver's consciousness, have been considered and implemented. However, this study suggests that, in addition to such efforts on the part of the sender, it is important to increase the sensitivity and affinity of the receiver to the message as preliminary preparation to receiving it.

142 Open Science: Improving Access and Reducing Bias in Science

The promise of science lies in the discovery of basic knowledge, new treatments for disease and possible solutions to the world’s problems. Fulfilling this promise requires confidence that the findings of published science are valid—that they represent an unbiased conclusion based on available data. In recent years, however, a “reproducibility crisis” has emerged indicating that published findings across research fields may be less credible than they seem, perhaps due to hidden biases in the research process. This talk will provide an overview of the key challenges that reduce the credibility and reproducibility of research and will discuss how open science practices address these challenges. Current practice is sustained by a dysfunctional incentive structure that prioritizes publication over accuracy. Changing the research culture to prioritize “getting it right” over “getting it published” requires nudges to the incentive landscape, while still fueling the engine of innovation and discovery that drives science into new domains.

Weekly team-based learning scores and participation are better predictors of successful course performance than case-based learning performance: role of assessment incentive structure

Background Incentives for preparation and participation in case-based (CBL) and team-based learning (TBL) differ by virtue of differences in assessment, allowing us to evaluate the role these incentives play in preparation and participation in these activities as well as overall course performance. Methods Weekly TBL and CBL participation and performance as well as performance on the course final examination were recorded. Student participation was quantified and correlated with: (1) CBL preparation, participation, teamwork and completion of learning objectives scores, and (2) TBL individual readiness assurance test (iRAT) scores. Results Student final examination scores (n = 95) were more strongly correlated with TBL than CBL performance. No significant correlation was found between iRAT and CBL scores. Student participation was measured in 3 CBL groups (8 students/group) and 4 TBL teams (6 students/team). TBL participation was more strongly correlated with final examination scores than CBL participation. TBL participation was also correlated with iRAT scores. CBL scores for preparation, participation, teamwork and completion of learning objectives did not significantly correlate with iRAT scores or TBL participation. Conclusion These results suggest that the assessment incentives and methods used in TBL result in student performance that better predicts performance on summative examinations.

Psychology Exceptionalism and the Multiple Discovery of the Replication Crisis

This article outlines what we call the “narrative of psychology exceptionalism” in commentaries on the replication crisis: many thoughtful commentaries link the current crisis to the specificity of psychology’s history, methods, and subject matter, but explorations of the similarities between psychology and other fields are comparatively thin. Historical analyses of the replication crisis in psychology further contribute to this exceptionalism by creating a genealogy of events and personalities that shares little in common with other fields. We aim to rebalance this narrative by examining the emergence and evolution of replication discussions in psychology alongside their emergence and evolution in biomedicine. Through a mixed-methods analysis of commentaries on replication in psychology and the biomedical sciences, we find that these conversations have, from the early years of the crisis, shared a common core that centers on concerns about the effectiveness of traditional peer review, the need for greater transparency in methods and data, and the perverse incentive structure of academia. Drawing on Robert Merton’s framework for analyzing multiple discovery in science, we argue that the nearly simultaneous emergence of this narrative across fields suggests that there are shared historical, cultural, or institutional factors driving disillusionment with established scientific practices.

Collapse in Fertility

Chapter 7 explores the links between precipitous declines in fertility rates in most countries and the economic, social, and psychosocial changes associated with transition. It shows how the transitional recession introduced a new level of economic uncertainty in postsocialist society, a major factor in family planning. The chapter describes how institutional and social changes influenced women’s individual decisions to delay or forgo childbearing altogether. It also shows how the elimination of robust state incentives for childbearing after 1989 altered the incentive structure for parenthood, while the privatization of child care and kindergartens, key maternal support structures, led to the closure of many. The implosion of maternal support structures, coupled with “refamilization” plans initiated by many postsocialist governments, pushed women out of the workforce, often depriving families of the resources to have a second child. This chapter also cites the growth of individualism and out-migration of young people as key factors for the decrease in fertility rates.

Villager Groups and Self-Governance in China: Power, Incentives, and Risk Prevention

Building a modern grassroots governance system synchronized with national development has become a significant part of China’s rural revitalization strategy. To cope with the overlapping of property rights, social identities, and work and living space in China’s villages, the villager group 村民小组 has been endowed with relatively complete governance power. Regional social networks, the moral constraints of reputation in the village, and the administrative incentives provided by the government constitute the incentive structure of villager group governance. At the same time, granting group cadres official authority and social power enables them to better coordinate the relationship between state and society, safeguard the rights and interests of villagers in the group, and provide low-cost public goods through their structural position in “the last kilometer” 最后一公里. However, they may also bring about the political risk of group confrontation, the economic risk of embezzling collective assets, and the moral risk of negligence and political inertia. To ward off these risks requires strengthening the leadership of grassroots party organizations, making full use of social supervision, ensuring that cadres operate in an open and above-board fashion, and introducing the notion of the rule of law, thus forming a compound risk-prevention mechanism for grassroots power and building a solid foundation for national governance.