A Novel Model for Landslide Displacement Prediction Based on EDR Selection and Multi-Swarm Intelligence Optimization Algorithm

With the widespread application of machine learning methods, the continuous improvement of forecast accuracy has become an important task, which is especially crucial for landslide displacement predictions. This study aimed to propose a novel prediction model to improve accuracy in landslide prediction, based on the combination of multiple new algorithms. The proposed new method includes three parts: data preparation, multi-swarm intelligence (MSI) optimization, and displacement prediction. In the data preparation, the complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition (CEEMD) is adopted to separate the trend and periodic displacements from the observed cumulative landslide displacement. The frequency component and residual component of reconstructed inducing factors that related to landslide movements are also extracted by the CEEMD and t-test, and then picked out with edit distance on real sequence (EDR) as input variables for the support vector regression (SVR) model. MSI optimization algorithms are used to optimize the SVR model in the MSI optimization; thus, six predictions models can be obtained that can be used in the displacement prediction part. Finally, the trend and periodic displacements are predicted by six optimized SVR models, respectively. The trend displacement and periodic displacement with the highest prediction accuracy are added and regarded as the final prediction result. The case study of the Shiliushubao landslide shows that the prediction results match the observed data well with an improvement in the aspect of average relative error, which indicates that the proposed model can predict landslide displacements with high precision, even when the displacements are characterized by stepped curves that under the influence of multiple time-varying factors.

Landslide Displacement Prediction Method Based on GA-Elman Model

The deformation process of landslide displacement has complex nonlinear characteristics. In view of the problems of large error, slow convergence and poor stability of the traditional neural network prediction model, in order to better realize the accurate and effective prediction of landslide displacement, this research proposes a landslide displacement prediction model based on Genetic Algorithm (GA) optimized Elman neural network. This model combines the GA with the Elman neural network to optimize the weights, thresholds and the number of hidden neurons of the Elman neural network. It gives full play to the dynamic memory function of the Elman neural network, overcomes the problems that a single Elman neural network can easily fall into local minimums and the neuron data is difficult to determine, thereby effectively improving the prediction performance of the neural network prediction model. The displacement monitoring data of a slow-varying landslide in the Guizhou karst mountainous area are selected to predict and verify the landslide displacement, and the results are compared with the traditional Elman neural network prediction results. The results show that the prediction results of GA-Elman model are in good agreement with the actual monitoring data of landslide. The average error of the model is low and the prediction accuracy is high, which proves that the GA-Elman model can play a role in the prediction of landslide displacement and can provide reference for the early warning of landslide displacement deformation.