Prediction model of seasonality in the construction industry based on the accidentality phenomenon

The construction industry is an economic sector that is characterized by seasonality. Seasonal factors affect the volume of production, which in turn affects the accident rate. The aim of the research presented in the article was to develop a model for predicting the number of people injured in occupational accidents in the construction industry. Based on the analysis of statistical data and previous studies, the occurrence of certain regularities of the accidentality phenomenon was found, namely the long-term trend over many years, as well as seasonality and cyclicality over the course of a year. The found regularities were the basis for the assumptions that were made for the construction of the model. A mathematical model was built in the non-linear regression dimension. The model was validated by comparing the results of prediction errors generated by the developed model with the results of prediction errors generated by other known models, such as ARIMA, SARIMA, linear and polynomial models, which take into account the seasonality of the phenomenon. The constructed model enables the number of people injured in accidents in the construction industry in selected months of future years to be predicted with high accuracy. The obtained results can be the basis for making appropriate decisions regarding preventive and prophylactic measures in the construction industry. Commonly known mathematical tools available in the STATISTICA package were used to solve the given task.

THE REVIEW OF K.S. BAKANOV AND A.A. BURTSEV’S MONOGRAPH «PREVENTION OF THE FACTS OF DRIVING IS DRUNK AT STAGES POLUCHE-NIYA, STAY, THE TERMINATION AND RESUMPTION OF THE RIGHT FOR DRIVING»

Рецензируемая монография имеет большую практическую значимость для совершенствования деятельности полиции по предупреждению и пресечению фактов управления транспортными средствами в состоянии опьянения, а также по взаимодействию с медицинскими организациями по данным вопросам, что, как следствие, является залогом снижения уровня аварийности по этой причине. В монографии рассматриваются перспективы совершенствования системы допуска водителей транспортных средств к участию в дорожном движении на основе подходов риск-ориентированного управления, межведомственного взаимодействия, развития и внедрения цифровых технологий. The peer-reviewed monograph was of great practical importance for improving police activities to prevent and suppress the facts of driving while intoxicated, as well as for interacting with medical organizations on these issues, which, as a result, was the key to reducing the accident rate for this reason. The monograph considers the prospects for improving the system of admission of drivers of vehicles to participate in road traffic on the basis of risk-based management approaches, interagency interaction, development and the introduction of digital technologies.

Development of Models for Express Analysis of Road Safety

Results of a study of an actual scientific and technical problem of determining the road safety level on road sections are presented in the paper. The aim of the study is to develop an express method for assessing road safety based on improving the method of the final accident rate by reducing the partial accident rate with the required accuracy of determining the safety level on public roads. The formalization of the relationship between the parameters of road traffic conditions has been carried out to study the level of safety on highways. Latent factors of the parameters of traffic conditions have been obtained on the basis of reduction of their aggregate by the method of principal components, taking into account the relationship of partial accident rates. This condition has allowed to develop analytical models for determining road safety for implementation in the practice of conducting a road safety audit. A method for identifying hazardous areas on highways has been proposed in the paper. It includes 11 parameters of road conditions out of 18 partial accident rates proposed in the prototype and regulatory documents of Ukraine. The adequacy of the model is determined by deviation values of the obtained data according to the prototype model from the values of the relative accident rate, which were 3.22 and 18.61, respectively. The proposed model reduces the deviation value by six times and affects the accuracy of determining the safety level. Experimental studies have been conducted on 79 km of highways (on 385 sectors with constant values of traffic conditions parameters). The results of a comparative analysis of the safety level for the prototype model and the developed model have been identical and shown a decrease in time and labor costs by 1.6 times without loss of accuracy. Thus, the developed methodology is recommended to be applied for determining the potential danger of road sections during an express analysis of the road safety or when conducting a safety audit at various stages of the road life cycle.

The Effects of Wearing Helmets on Reaction of Motorcycle Riders

In Taiwan, motorcycles are the most commonly used means of transportation and also have the highest accident rate. Because motorcycles are less stable and provide less protection than cars, motorcycle riders are vulnerable in traffic accidents. Furthermore, head trauma is often fatal, causing a great loss to society. Although helmets provide protection to the head, they also affect the visual field of motorcycle riders. However, the literature mostly focuses on the protective effect of helmets after a collision and rarely considers the influence of helmets prior to collisions. In the study design, participants wore three different types of helmet and watched a pre-recorded video of an actual street with pre-placed warning triangles at a speed of 60 km/h. Participants were asked to press a button when they saw a warning triangle. The time between participants seeing the warning triangle and arriving at the warning triangle was calculated. This time is referred to as the “early reaction time.” The number of missed presses and false presses was also recorded. The results of the study show that: (1) Of the three types of helmet, wearing half helmets produced the longest early reaction times, followed by 3/4 helmets, with full face helmets with the shortest early reaction times. (2) Early reaction times when wearing a half helmet were the same as early reaction times when not wearing a helmet. (3) The results for the total number of missed and false presses when wearing the three types of helmet were the same as for the results of the early reaction time analysis. (4) Sex and age had no effect on early reaction times. The experimental results can be used as a reference for helmet design and academic research.

TO THE QUESTION OF THE APPROVALITY OF APPLICATION OF ADMINISTRATIVE ARREST UNDER PART 3 OF ARTICLE 12.8, PART 2 OF ARTICLE 12.26 AND PART 1 OF ARTICLE 20.25 OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION CODE ON ADMINISTRATIVE OFFENSES

Профилактика безопасности дорожного движения является фундаментальным критерием снижения уровня аварийности на территории Российской Федерации. Предупреждение административных правонарушений среди неопределенного круга лиц путем применения соразмерного и эффективного наказания гарантирует безопасность участникам процесса. Отсутствие возможности применения надлежащих мер государственного принуждения, соответствующих тенденциям современного общества, не позволяет обеспечить неукоснительное соблюдение принципа неотвратимости наказания или достигнуть поставленных Министерством внутренних дел Российской Федерации целей. Prevention of road safety is a fundamental criterion for reducing the accident rate on the territory of the Russian Federation. The prevention of administrative offenses among an indefinite circle of persons, through the application of proportionate and effective punishment, guarantees the safety of the participants in the process. The lack of the possibility of applying appropriate measures of state coercion, corresponding to modern society, does not allow the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation to ensure strict observance of the principle of inevitability of punishment or to achieve the set goals.

Influences of Exit Advance Guide Signs on the Trajectory and Speed of Passenger Cars in Highway Tunnels

The driving behavior in highway tunnels is more complicated than that in regular roadbed sections because the former is usually affected by black and white hole effects, tunnel clearance, and bad illumination. Unfortunately, the current Chinese criteria and the Uniform Traffic Control Equipment Manual (MUTCD) 2009 guidelines provide no clear method for setting exit advance guide signs in highway tunnels. Hence, a driving simulator-based experiment was conducted in the current study to analyze the effects of exit advance guide signs on the trajectory, speed, and acceleration of passenger cars in a highway tunnel under three different service levels. It was found that when the service level is first service level, second service level, and third service level, the setting of the exit advance guide signs made the initial transverse location of the vehicle from the tunnel exit advance by 13.39%, 21.20%, and 5.73%, the lane change distance is shortened by 6.34%, 20.18%, and 15.34%, the average speed is decreased by 1.44%, 2.40%, and 0.08%, and the acceleration is decreased to −0.10 m·s−2, −0.11 m·s−2, and −0.06 m·s−2. Thus, the exit guide signs in the tunnel played a certain optimization role in improving the traffic flow state of the section and reducing the traffic accident rate.

Speed limits and accident rates on highways around the world, is there a correlation?

The objective of this study stands for the investigation and evaluation of accidents that take place on highways, in comparison with speed limits. The main body of this research is based on the collection of highways speed limits from different countries around the globe regarding to years, 2010, 2017 and 2018. Secondly, accident rates are collected from highway authorities, as well as from international literature. Subsequently, a statistical analysis of the collected data is conducted and finally leads to an equation that links and correlates the speed limit values and the number of accidents. The results of this statistical analysis show that speed limit plays a certain and distinctive role in the accident rate value. However, one of the interesting findings, stands for the non-continuously increasing number of accidents in the speed limit range, from the lowest to the highest value, meaning that there is an inflection point in the graph of the correlation equation. To be noted, that in terms of this study, the aforementioned correlation is independent of other factors that could affect the accident rate, such as vehicles condition, technology, road network length and condition.

Evaluation of the Accident Rate of a Plant Equipped with an Aging Single Protective Channel by the Method of Supplementary Variables

This work calculates the reliability of protective systems of industrial facilities, such as nuclear, to analyze the case of equipment subject to aging, important in the extension of the qualified life of the facilities. By means of the method of supplementary variables, a system of partial and ordinary integral-differential equations was developed for the probabilities of a protective system of an aging channel. The system of equations was solved by finite differences. The method was validated by comparison with channel results with exponential failure times. The method of supplementary variables exhibits reasonable results for values of reliability attributes typical of industrial facilities.

Drive2Pass: A 3D Game-Based Interactive Driving Simulation System for Improving the Youth Driving Learning and Training using Machine Learning

Youths have a higher car accident rate, so to decrease the percentage, I developed a game that will teach players to practice safer driving behaviors [5]. It is meant to simulate real driving, and teaches the players key individual concepts about road safety. This game puts an emphasis on properly executing blinking, hill parking, and headlights. This addresses the problem in other games where they solely focus on steering and acceleration, as this game also includes other driving elements to promote defensive driving. The intended goal of this game was to teach beginner drivers proper driving etiquette in a safe, risk-free environment and become a potential alternative to the traditional method of driving on real roads.