A Model to Estimate the Effect of International Traffic on Malaria Cases: The Case of Japan from 1999 to 2021

Aiming to identify the potentially reduced malaria cases by stagnation of international traffic after the COVID-19 pandemic, a longitudinal analysis of malaria cases as well as entries of Japanese and foreigners was conducted using data from 5 April 1999 to 30 September 2021 in Japan. Multivariable risk ratios were calculated with the Poison regression model as a predictive model of malaria cases by the number of entries for Japanese and foreigners. A generalized regression model was used to examine an association of time trend with entries for Japanese and foreigners using data before 2019, to estimate the potentially reduced number of entries after 2020. The potentially reduced number of malaria cases was estimated by the potentially reduced number of entries for Japanese and foreigners after 2020 using a multivariable Poison regression model. The multivariable risk ratio (95% confidence intervals) of malaria case numbers per 100,000 persons increment of entries per day was 3.41 (1.50–7.77) for Japanese and 1.47 (0.92–2.35) for foreigners. During 2020, a potential reduction of 28 (95% confidence limit: 22–34) malaria cases was estimated, which accounted for 58% (52–63%) of malaria cases in Japan. These finding suggest that the stagnation of international traffic during the COVID-19 pandemic reduced the number of malaria cases in Japan. This model may be helpful for countries without indigenous malaria to predict future trends of imported malaria cases.

Evaluating the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 Variants on the COVID-19 Epidemic and Social Restoration in the United States: A Mathematical Modelling Study

Background: Multiple SARS-CoV-2 variants are still rampant across the United States (US). We aimed to evaluate the impact of vaccination scale-up and potential reduction in the vaccination effectiveness on the COVID-19 epidemic and social restoration in the US.Methods: We extended a published compartmental model and calibrated the model to the latest US COVID-19 data. We estimated the vaccine effectiveness against the variant and evaluated the impact of a potential reduction in vaccine effectiveness on the epidemics. We explored the epidemic trends under different levels of social restoration.Results: We estimated the overall existing vaccine effectiveness against the variant as 88.5% (95% CI: 87.4–89.5%) with the vaccination coverage of 70% by the end of August, 2021. With this vaccine effectiveness and coverage, there would be 498,972 (109,998–885,947) cumulative infections and 15,443 (3,828–27,057) deaths nationwide over the next 12 months, of which 95.0% infections and 93.3% deaths were caused by the variant. Complete social restoration at 60, 65, 70% vaccination coverage would increase cumulative infections to 1.6 (0.2–2.9) million 0.7 (0.1–1.2) million, and 511,159 (110,578–911,740), respectively. At same time it would increase cumulative deaths to 39,040 (5,509–72,570), 19,562 (3,873–35,250), 15,739 (3,841–27,638), respectively. However, if the vaccine effectiveness were reduced to 75%, 50% or 25% due to new SARS-CoV-2 variants, there would be 667,075 (130,682–1,203,468), 1.7 (0.2–3.2) million, 19.0 (5.3–32.7) million new infections and 19,249 (4,281–34,217), 42,265 (5,081–79,448), 426,860 (117,229–736,490) cumulative deaths to occur over the next 12 months. Further, social restoration at a lower vaccination coverage would lead to even greater secondary outbreaks.Conclusion: Current COVID-19 vaccines remain effective against the SARS-CoV-2 variant, and 70% vaccination coverage would be sufficient to restore social activities to a pre-pandemic level. Further reduction in vaccine effectiveness against SARS-CoV-2 variants would result in a potential surge of the epidemic. Multiple measures, including public health interventions, vaccination scale-up and development of a new vaccine booster, should be integrated to counter the new challenges of new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Критический ток в длинном джозефсоновском контакте во внешнем магнитном поле при слабом пиннинге

The analysis of possible current distributions when passing current through a periodically modulated long Josephson contact located in an external magnetic field is carried out. An approach based on the analysis of continuous configuration modification proceeding in the direction of Gibbs potential reduction is used for the calculation. The case when the pinning parameter is less than the critical value is considered. It is shown that at any value of the external magnetic field, there is a critical value of the transport current, when exceeded, the situation ceases to be stationary, as a result of which energy passes into radiation and heat, i.e. currents cease to be persistent. The value of the critical current is determined by the value of the magnetic field at which the vortices begin to fill the entire length of the contact. With an increase in the external magnetic field, the critical value of the current decreases.

Nurse-led early evaluation following corticosteroid prescription in patients with inflammatory bowel disease

Background: The Toronto consensus for management of ulcerative colitis (UC) recommends early evaluation of UC patients 2 weeks after initiation on corticosteroids. A system for early evaluation of inflammatory bowel disease patients was established by specialist nurses in a secondary care centre. Aim: To compare outcomes following early evaluation to the previous service. Methods: All patients undergoing early evaluation over a 1-year period were prospectively audited and compared to a retrospective cohort of patients receiving prednisolone in the preceding year. Findings: Of 140 patients included, 76 (54.3%) underwent early evaluation. All patients in the early evaluation group received drug education and details of the nurse helpline (17.1% of patients did not already have this). Of patients, 81.6% were prescribed Adcal, and 83.9% were on 5-aminosalicylates. Fewer admissions were observed within 6 months following early evaluation (8.6% vs. 23.4%, p=0.013). Conclusion: Multiple benefits of early evaluation were observed, including a potential reduction in hospital admissions.

Turning green: the impact of changing to more eco-friendly respiratory healthcare. A carbon and cost analysis of Dutch prescription data.

Objectives Dry powder inhalers (DPIs) have a substantially lower global warming potential than pressurized metered-dose inhalers (MDIs). To help mitigate climate change, we assessed the potential reduction in CO2-equivalents when replacing MDIs by DPIs in the Netherlands, and estimated the associated cost. Design We performed a four-step analysis based on data from two national databases of two independent governmental bodies (Dutch National Healthcare Institute and the Dutch Healthcare Authority). First, we calculated the number of patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and asthma that were using inhalation medication (2020). Second, we calculated the number and total of daily defined doses of MDIs, DPIs, and soft mist inhalers and the number of spacers per patients, dispensed by non-hospital based pharmacies in 2020. Third, we estimated the potential reduction in CO2-equivalents (eq.) if all eligible patients (≥7 years old; COPD with ≤exacerbation per year) would switch from using MDIs to using DPIs as eco-friendly alternatives. Fourth, we performed a cost-effectiveness analysis. Results In 2020, 1.4 million patients used inhalers for COPD or asthma treatment. A total of 460 million defined daily doses (DDDs) from inhalers were dispensed, of which, after the exclusion of nebulisers, 50.4% were from MDIs. We estimated that this use could be reduced by 70% leading to annual reduction in emissions of 77 - 84 million kg CO2eq. saving at best EUR 49.8 million annually. Conclusions In the Netherlands, substitution of MDIs to DPIs for eligible patients is theoretically safe and in accordance with medical guidelines, while reducing emissions by 80 million kg.CO2eq. on average and saving at best EUR 49.8 million per year. This study confirms the potential climate and economic benefit of delivering eco-friendlier respiratory care.

Control Design and Assessment for a Reversing Tractor–Trailer System Using a Cascade Controller

In recent years, control design for unmanned systems, especially a tractor–trailer system, has gained popularity among researchers. The emergence of such interest is caused by the potential reduction in cost and shortage of number of workers and labors. Two industries will benefit from the advancements of these types of systems: agriculture and cargo. By using the unmanned tractor–trailer system, harvesting and cultivating plants will become a safe and easy task. It will also cause a reduction in cost which in turn reduces the price on the end consumers. On the other hand, by using the unmanned tractor–trailer system in the cargo industry, shipping cost and time for the item delivery will be reduced. The work presented in this paper focuses on the development of a path tracking and a cascaded controller to control a tractor–trailer in reverse motion. The path tracking controller utilizes the Frenet–Serret frame to control the kinematics of the tractor–trailer system on a desired path, while the cascade controller’s main objective is to stabilize the system and to perform commands issued by the path tracker. The controlled parameters in this proposed design are the lateral distance to a path, trailer’s heading angel, articulated angel, and articulated angle’s rate. The main goal of such controller is to follow a path while the tractor–trailer system is moving in reverse and controlling the stability of the articulated vehicle to prevent the occurrence of a jackknife incident (uncontrolled state). The proposed controller has been tested in a different scenario where a successful implementation has been shown.

Nurse-led early evaluation following corticosteroid prescription in patients with inflammatory bowel disease

Background The Toronto consensus for management of ulcerative colitis (UC) recommends early evaluation of UC patients 2 weeks after initiation on corticosteroids. A system for early evaluation of inflammatory bowel disease patients was established by specialist nurses in a secondary care centre. Aim To compare outcomes following early evaluation to the previous service. Methods All patients undergoing early evaluation over a 1-year period were prospectively audited and compared to a retrospective cohort of patients receiving prednisolone in the preceding year. Findings Of 140 patients included, 76 (54.3%) underwent early evaluation. All patients in the early evaluation group received drug education and details of the nurse helpline (17.1% of patients did not already have this). Of patients, 81.6% were prescribed Adcal, and 83.9% were on 5-aminosalicylates. Fewer admissions were observed within 6 months following early evaluation (8.6% vs. 23.4%, p=0.013). Conclusion Multiple benefits of early evaluation were observed, including a potential reduction in hospital admissions.