Research on the Effectiveness of China’s Macro Control Policy on Output and Technological Progress under Economic Policy Uncertainty

The uncertainty of economic policy, a specific form of uncertainty, can affect both economic growth, and the effectiveness of the macroeconomic regulation and control policy. Existing studies have analyzed the impacts of economic policy uncertainty on investment, consumption, trade, and total factor survival, but there is no analysis of the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation and control policies on output and technological progress in a deterministic environment. Output growth and technological progress show the performance of economic growth in gross and efficiency, respectively, which is the external performance and internal driving force of economic growth. To achieve long-term sustainable economic development, it is necessary to consider both the aggregate problem and technological progress. In this context, this paper attempts to explore the effectiveness of China’s macroeconomic regulation and control policy on output growth and technological progress under the economic policy uncertainty. Specifically, this paper first analyzes the effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation and control policy on China’s output growth and technological progress in an uncertain environment, and then makes an empirical study by constructing a time-varying parameter vector autoregression model (TVP-VAR). Furthermore, the simulation test of the relevant results is carried out using the counter-fact analysis method. The empirical results show that: (1) under the uncertainty environment, the direction of the effect of price monetary policy on output has not changed, the effect of interest rate increase on output growth is negative, and the impact is stronger in the short term than in the medium and long term; the effect of rising interest rates on technological progress is positive, and the effect intensity is also significant in the short term, but weak in the medium and long term, the effect of price monetary policy on output is stronger under moderate uncertainty. (2) Credit growth can promote output growth, and the regulation effect of credit growth on output growth is mainly reflected in the short term under the TVP-VAR model, the effect of credit growth on technological progress is not significant. Further research using counterfactual analysis shows that the uncertain environment will reduce the effect of credit policy on output growth, but the effect is not significant.

Design Policy Driven Development of Chinese Industry

Governments all over the world are paying great attention to economic innovation and the development of design in modern society. They are spending more and more recourses on making rules for Industrial Design Policy and measuring its implementation. As a method to make macroeconomic regulation and control by the government, the effectiveness and importance of design policy has already been widely admitted. In a macro-background of the three turns of Chinese design policy, taking the design policy of Guangdong province as an example, this article will analyze how local/regional government should respond to the national design policy. Based on the investigation and analysis of the winners of the "Guangdong Governor Cup Industrial Design Competition", this paper discusses how industrial design competition as a part of the design policy to support the development of industrial design. After making a comparison with the design policy of the Yangtze River Delta area, this article tries to enhance and perfect the current policy path.

Research on the Policies and Means Changes of Macro Regulation and Control of Chinese and Foreign Governments

In the process of economic development, government uses the "visible hand" to achieve macroeconomic regulation and control for "market failure", which has been common knowledge among people after World War II. Comparing policy and means adopted by Chinese and foreign governments in macro regulation and control, we can see that the choice is different in different historical periods and the change of emphasis in macro regulation and control policy and means has the convergence tendency. We can make the following conclusion from research of the change rules of macro regulation and control means in the market economic condition of Chinese and foreign governments: supply-side structural reform in China complies with the basic rules of development of market economy.

Complexity and Hopf Bifurcation Analysis on a Kind of Fractional-Order IS-LM Macroeconomic System

On the basis of our previous research, we deepen and complete a kind of macroeconomics IS-LM model with fractional-order calculus theory, which is a good reflection on the memory characteristics of economic variables, we also focus on the influence of the variables on the real system, and improve the analysis capabilities of the traditional economic models to suit the actual macroeconomic environment. The conditions of Hopf bifurcation in fractional-order system models are briefly demonstrated, and the fractional order when Hopf bifurcation occurs is calculated, showing the inherent complex dynamic characteristics of the system. With numerical simulation, bifurcation, strange attractor, limit cycle, waveform and other complex dynamic characteristics are given; and the order condition is obtained with respect to time. We find that the system order has an important influence on the running state of the system. The system has a periodic motion when the order meets the conditions of Hopf bifurcation; the fractional-order system gradually stabilizes with the change of the order and parameters while the corresponding integer-order system diverges. This study has certain significance to policy-making about macroeconomic regulation and control.