Estimation of Effect on Gross Domestic Product of Production Factors Using CES and Translog Production Functions: An Application to China Economy

In this paper, we investigate the effect on economic growth (GDP) for China’s economy with capital, labor and energy input factors by using CES production function and Translog production function. The empirical findings of the study showed that CES, consisting of capital and labor factors, is less efficient than the Translog function consisting of capital, labor and energy input factors for GDP estimation.The Ridge regression method is used to the parameter estimation of Translog production function using historical data because there is collinearity between variables. Then, based on the fitted Translog production model including capital, labor and energy input factors, the results of the output elasticities for each of the factors and the substitution elasticities between input factors have been dynamically estimated. To predict the future economic growth of the China economy, the inputs of Translog production model are predicted by using Holt-Winter’s method. The elasticities of the output of all input factors are positive. According to degrees of the effect on GDP, we can list the factors as labor, capital and energy, respectively. This situation represents the China economy is labor and capital intensive.

International reserves: self-insurance and monetary policy in crisis

PurposeThis work presents a model of a two-period economy to discuss the link between the precautionary motivation for holding international reserves and the country's monetary policy concerns due to a crisis.Design/methodology/approachThere are two possible states of nature in the second period of the economy: a normal state and a crisis state. These states of nature represent uncertainty to the policy maker and he can insure against a crisis. The household has a constant-elasticity-of-substitution (CES) utility function, where utility depends on consumption and money.FindingsBy allowing money in the utility function and in the household financial constraint and considering that the objective of the central bank is to smooth inflation, it is concluded that monetary policy plays a role in the precautionary motivation of holding international reserves.Practical implicationsThe model can be used to calculate optimal reserves holdings in its complete or even in its simplified version. Furthermore, it is possible to evaluate the impact of the intra-temporal substitution elasticity between consumption and real money in the decision of accumulating international reserves.Originality/valueHigher intra-temporal substitution elasticities implies in more insurance via international reserves, and this discussion is not found in the existent literature on international reserves.

The Trade Impact of EU Tariff Margins: An Empirical Assessment

This article provides an assessment of how the EU trade policies affect EU imports. The main contribution is that we compute a theoretically consistent measure of the EU tariff margin and estimate the elasticities of substitution at the sectoral level, using a structural gravity model that includes domestic trade flows. Our analysis is related to the most recent gravity literature and the identification strategy is based on the existence of a sufficient variation of the tariffs applied by the EU to different markets of origin. We use cross-section data (more than 5000 tariff lines and 188 exporters, including the EU28 Member States, in the year 2017), to obtain structural gravity estimates of trade substitution elasticities. Since tariffs greatly differ by product, an in-depth analysis should take place at the tariff line. Moreover, we use the information provided by the Eurostat Comext database on the tariff regime of imports, so we distinguish the Most Favored Nation (MFN) from the preferential trade flows. The estimated elasticities can be used to calculate the counterfactual change in total EU imports that would follow either from the removal of trade preferences or from the removal of trade policies.

UNRAVELING THE SKILL PREMIUM

For the United States, the supply and wages of skilled labor relative to those of unskilled labor have grown over the postwar period. The literature has tended to explain this through “skill-biased technical change” (SBTC). Empirical work has concentrated around two variants: (1) capital-skill complementarity, (2) skill-augmenting technical change. Our purpose is to nest and discriminate between these two explanations. We do so in the framework of multilevel Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES) production function, where factors are disaggregated into skilled and unskilled labor, and capital into structures and equipment capital. Using a five-equation system approach and several nesting alternatives, we retrieve estimates of the substitution elasticities and technical changes. Our estimations can produce results in line with capital-skill-complementarity hypothesis. However, those results are outperformed where the only source of the widening skill premium has been skill-augmenting technical change. We also show that the different explanations for SBTC have different implications for projected developments of the premium.